Locator: 47818AAPL.
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
MacBooks On Sale -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47817AAPL.
The question for me: should I buy an M3 at this price? It's tempting. I'll be buying the M4 but that may not be affordable / available until 2Q25.
I absolutely don't need a new laptop but new Apple computers sure are fun.
It is truly interesting how inexpensive computers have gotten. Absolutely amazing.
Link here for early 2024 review.
This could be the tipping point:
Most interesting: the M3 MacBook Air has a 3.5mm audio jack for wired headphones. Apple must be listening to their customers.
I do know I'm getting the M4 11-inch iPad as soon as it becomes available.
Biggest Under-Reported Energy Story For Investors -- NG Is Above $3 -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47816WTI.
While "everyone" is focused on WTI, in fact, natural gas is where the big story is right now for energy investors. It's gonna be a big summer for utilities -- short-term, heat and a/c; long-term: excitement about data center energy requirements.
Micron -- And Some Think MU Will Go A Lot Higher -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47815SNOWJOB.
After one-year, MU has doubled; SNOW -- negative.
And even worse, this story. Folks that follow the market understand this -- this is a huge, huge story.
Berkshire doesn’t perfectly correlate with Apple, and financial stocks were off 1% Tuesday and Berkshire is the largest financial company in the S&P 500. Berkshire could have been depressed if investors sold the Financial Select Sector SPDR of which Berkshire is the largest component.
Berkshire bulls were heartened by the Apple gain because Berkshire’s book value rose as a result and the company’s price/book ratio contracted, making the stock more appealing.
Barron’s estimates that Berkshire’s quarter-end book value will be about $420,000 per class A share, a record, assuming no change in stock prices before June 30. Book value stood at just under $400,000 per class A share on March 31, 2024.
So much more at the article.
Finally! It Took An Act Of Congress But President Biden Got 'er Done! No Fanfare, No Mean Tweets -- Just Governing The Old-Fashioned Way -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47814PIPELINE. 
The $7.85 billion project has withstood weather delays, a maze of court and construction permit challenges and regulator scrutiny. It is designed to meet growing energy demands in the South and mid-Atlantic by transporting gas from the Marcellus and Utica fields in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Congress ordered that all necessary permits be issued for the pipeline last year as part of a bipartisan bill to increase the debt ceiling. President Joe Biden signed the bill into law last June. Among the key votes for last year’s sweeping legislation was U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia independent. Manchin has called the pipeline “a crucial piece of energy infrastructure” that is good for global supply and American energy security.
2Q24 GDP Estimate Surges -- Now 3.1% -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47813GDP.
2Q24 GDP surges! Now at 3.1 -- as of June 7, 2024. Completely missed it due to all the other news I was following.
Is it likely JPow will want to start cutting when numbers like these are being reported?
How AI (Apple Intelligence) Is Different From AI -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47812AAPL.
If you want to see what Apple is talking about, watch the WWDC keynote presentation from yesterday, starting with these two presentations:
- the Apple graphing calculator; and,
- how Apple "does" search -- completely different that Microsoft's approach.
Holy Mackerel! Everything Everywhere Is Happening All At Once -- Elon Musk Drops Suit -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47811TECH.
See this post from earlier today / last night.
- Elon Musk: Elon Musk "goes nuts." Musk threatens to ban Apple products from his businesses (e.g., Twitter).
Now, after market close, CNBC is reporting: Elon Musk will drop suit against Sam Altman, Open AI. This will probably have "zero effect" on AAPL shares, but all the same, great news. Though with Elon Musk, I assume he has something else planned.
Five New Permits -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47810B.
Investing: what an incredible day. First AAPL surging and now, after-hours, after Oracle reports, shares surge. Link here.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $77.90.
Active rigs: 35.
Five new permits, #40823 - #40827, inclusive:
- Operators: CLR (2): Grayson Mill, Rockport Energy, MRO
- Fields: Patent Gate (McKenzie); Sixmile (Williams); Ranch Creek (McKenzie); and, Bailey (Dunn)
- Comments:
- CLR has permits for two Bjarne wells, NWNE 29-151-100,
- both to be sited 385 FNL with one 1865 FEL and the other 1833 FEL, only 30-foot separation;
- Grayson Mill has a permit for a Falcon well, NWNE 25-153-103;
- to be sited 322 FNL and 1323 FEL;
- MRO has a permit for an Akers well, SESE 21-1146-93,
- to be sited 518 FSL and 622 FEL;
- Rockport Energy has a permit for a Mary Carson well, NENE 18-146-98,
- to be sited 365 FNL and 1165 FEL;
Two permits renewed:
- 28644, Formentera, Bervik, Skjermo, Divide County;
- 37575, BR, Keene, Little Knife, Dunn County;
On The News That Shari Redstone Ends Discussions To Sell Paramount -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47809PARA.
AAPL at the close:
The market at the close:
The GOAT:
AAPL: Near The Close, One Day After WWDC24 -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47808AAPL.
Updates
Later, 8:52 p.m. CDT: it will be interesting to see some good reporting / analysis comparing Microsoft's focus on privacy and Apple's focus on privacy with OpenAI, search, etc. Microsoft's "Operation Backlash" has already revealed how different Microsoft and Apple are when it comes to privacy.
Later, 8:49 p.m. CDT: because I was traveling I did not catch CNBC's "Fast Money" this evening.
My hunch: the panelists were not impressed with Apple -- the WWDC keynote presentation or the AAPL surge today.
The panelists, in general, do not "like" Apple. My hunch is they said that a lot of the run-up in AAPL today was due to a "short squeeze." I once read that AAPL was one of the most shorted stocks among US equities and once AAPL started to move, a lot of the action was due to a classic short squeeze. Hopefully, we'll learn more as the week goes on.
Original Post
From earlier today, re-posting:
Others:
- only 5% of current Apple users can access Apple Intelligence on their current devices -- think about that -- if I want "that Calculator and "Smart Notes" (or whatever it was called) -- and I do want them -- it's time to upgrade -- five years sooner than I otherwise would have
- and, oh by the way, I'm gonna get an incredibly better camera
- Apple upgrades are going to be flying of the shelf this fall, as are:
- iPad Pros
Now, consider this, less than 20% of students say they "never" use generative AI:
Oil Up Today But The BIG WINNER Today Is Natural Gas -- CNBC -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47807ENERGY.
Wolfe Research, XLE, being reported on CNBC:
- pivot to energy;
- fade technology.
IEA:
- ups oil and natural gas demand
- predicts supply issues will become worse than previously forecast.
Everything, everywhere all at once.
A lot going on at the moment.
***********************
GM Trims 2024 EV Forecast
Hold that thought.
How many billions has GM lost on this EV debacle to date?
One could ask Ford the same question.
Mixed messages.
Did you hold that thought about GM cutting EV production?
Now, this today, with same date line: June 11, 2024:
But, then again, what would one expect from Inside EVs?
Again, the $64,000 question: is the range based on a 100% / full charge and driving it to zero?
Manufacturer recommendations:
- don't charge more than 80%;
- re-charge when one reaches 20%;
- 80% of 319 = 255.2 miles
- so, 80% charge gives you 255-mile range when starting out
- down to 20%, then 0.8*255 = 204 miles
- so, if it's full charge (100%) to zero charge, then, apparently, a range of 319 miles; but manufacturer recommends 200 miles to max battery life.
That, "respectable" 285 miles:
- 80% of 285 when starting out: 228 miles;
- recharge when one reaches 20% battery, or 0.80 *228 = 180 miles.
That "EV range" is very, very similar to "nameplate capacity" numbers.
Never discussed in these articles: margins for the manufacturer, dealer.
AI? Apple Intelligence -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47806AI.
Chips, semiconductor: link here.
- Home page for tech: link here.
- The cloud: link here.
- Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
- Spatial computing: link here.
- Generative AI: link here.
- AI: Apple intelligence.
- Apple Silicon: link here.
- tech: chip count updates.
- Supercomputers: link here.
- Data centers: link here.
- System on a chip (SOC): link here.
- Apple Intelligence (AI), short title, Siri: link here.
- WWDC24: link here.
Disclaimer -- A Reminder -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47805DISCLAIMER.
Best quote all day, so far, by Josh: AI now stands for Apple Intelligence. Wow!
Josh:
- put out of business yesterday, maybe a dozen or two dozen small start-ups
- regarding NVDA -- Q: is it too far, too fast. A: no.
Steve Weiss:
- the most negative guy on CNBC
- hates AAPL and still buys it
- but can't defend his purchase
AAPL: $4 trillion --
- $1 trillion: hardware
- $1 trillion: software
- $1 trillion: chips (Apple Silicon)
- $1 trillion: AI (Apple Intelligence)
Buy-side analysts:
- racing to raise targets
- need to readjust portfolios
- many trading houses are not overweighted in AAPL;
- this could change
- will certainly drive discussion
That calculator:
- clearly the "wow moment" yesterday, BUT
- folks completely missed how revolutionary the Apple Calculator is
- one "app" completely encapsulates what Apple Intelligence is all about, and,
- the M4.
Others:
- only 5% of current Apple users can access Apple Intelligence on their current devices -- think about that -- if I want "that Calculator and "Smart Notes" (or whatever it was called) -- and I do want them -- it's time to upgrade -- five years sooner than I otherwise would have
- and, oh by the way, I'm gonna get an incredibly better camera
- Apple upgrades are going to be flying of the shelf this fall, as are:
- iPad Pros
- the entire OpenAI "team" was in attendance, not just Sam Altman
- the relationship between OpenAI and Apple may be different / much bigger than initially evident
- AI (Apple Intelligence) won't "hurt" Google
Bottom line, one word, yesterday, WWDC24: revolutionary.
**************************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market,
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market,
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
Among Investors: The GOAT -- And AAPL Today -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47804AAPL.
Tag: BRK.
Rule #1: don't lose money.
**************************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market,
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market,
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
Rig Count Again -- It Get Tedious -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47802B.
Shale energy story today: Bloomberg on shale. Consolidation -- laying down rigs.
Most recent dashboards: doing more with less. Rig counts haven't mattered since 2016.
EIA Dashboards:
- EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
- EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
- EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf
House Of Cards is Falling -- A Veritable Train Wreck -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47801B.
This is the big energy story today:
RBN Energy: renewable diesel market unsettled by drop in government subsidies. Archived.
The federal Renewable Identification Number (RIN) and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) have long served as tools to force renewable fuels like ethanol into the U.S. fuel supply. They are environmental credits that subsidize production of renewable fuels that would not otherwise be economically justified. Nuances embedded in the design of these credit systems have again kicked in to surprise the markets, this time with a hit to renewable diesel (RD) margins. Today’s RBN blog zeroes in on two root causes for that hit.
And, then there's this from a couple of days ago:
Renewable Diesel Market Unsettled -- Government Reduces Subsidies -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47800B.
WTI: $77.53.
Wednesday, June 12, 2024: 59 for the month; 123 for the quarter, 322 for the year
None.
39677, conf, Petro-Hunt, Burian 144-98-14A-23-3H,
RBN Energy: renewable diesel market unsettled by drop in government subsidies. Archived.
The federal Renewable Identification Number (RIN) and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) have long served as tools to force renewable fuels like ethanol into the U.S. fuel supply. They are environmental credits that subsidize production of renewable fuels that would not otherwise be economically justified. Nuances embedded in the design of these credit systems have again kicked in to surprise the markets, this time with a hit to renewable diesel (RD) margins. Today’s RBN blog zeroes in on two root causes for that hit.
Holy Mackerel -- APPL Surges -- Hits Record (?) -- Early Morning Trading -- June 11, 2024
Locator: 47999AAPL.
Updates
Later, 10:05 a.m. CDT: amazing. The big story is obviously AAPL today, and yet CNBC barely touches it. Of course, CNBC is part of the MSFT family.
Later, 10:01 a.m. CDT: MarketWatch AAPL target --
Later, 9:44 a.m. CDT: business schools are now requiring basic courses in AI -- what computers (tablets and laptops do you think they will use? Purdue University -- graduates the most engineering students each year. Scholastically ranked: MIT ... Stanford ... UC-Berkeley .... Purdue. Purdue spokesperson announced this on CNBC this a.m. Every engineering student will be buying an M4 calculator --- oops, I meant an M4 iPad -- high end. Just saying.
Later, 9:41 a.m. CDT: are you kidding me? Up 4.64%; up almost $9; trading above $202.
Original Post
Some / many / most analysts and the CNBC talking heads completely blown away. By the nature of their questions, "they" simply don't get it.
One word: gaming.
One phrase: won't require Nvidia chips.
Result: all in-house chips (there are exceptions). Margins remain high; go higher.
It looks like Apple will put best technology in high end laptops, tablets, and high-end new iPhones -- again, the result should be obvious.
Will be a busy day for blogging.
**************************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market,
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market,
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.