We'll provide some narrative tomorrow. I'm headed to bed.
6 x 5 = 30
x 2 = 60
But, some examples of spacing in the Bakken.
Wednesday, March 13, 2024
SCCO Today -- Peaked Too Soon? Or Is A Super-Cycle Just About To Begin? March 13, 2024
Locator: 46752CU.
Updates
March 17, 2024: link here.
March 14, 2024: link here.
Original Post
A sponsored link, April 13, 2022, but ...
... all those data centers ...
Might be time to start reading up on copper and data centers ...
... or maybe even smart phones ...
Folks may want to compare "ubiquity" of global lithium and compare it to global copper.
Intel Today -- And, Will We Hit $80-WTI Tomorrow? March 13, 2024
Locator: 46750CHIPS.
Reported on the blog yesterday or early this morning. I lose track of time. Link here.
The DOD isn't always thought of as the sharpest knife in the drawer. What did the DOD find to withdraw a $2.5 billion chip grant ... to/from the darling of the White House?
Oil:
Ukraine hitting Russian refineries? Causing price of oil to rise? Link here.
Agree 1000% -- Except First 600 kWh Needs To Be Entirely Free And Upper Tier Needs To Be Charged More -- March 13, 2024
Locator: 46749UTILITIES.
Those earning more than $500,000 per year would never be affected by a $300 surcharge.
PGA -- March 13, 2024
Locator: 46748PGA.
NYT.
PGA / LIV: the names we won't see at the Players. Wow!
- Bryson DeChambeau: huge draw
- Sergio Garcia: huge draw
- Talor Gooch: always a big draw
- Charles Howell III:
- Dustin Johnson: a huge loss for the PGA
- Brooks Koepka: another huge loss
- Phil Mickelson: what can I say?
- Kevin Na:
- Louis Oosthuizen: another big draw
- Ian Poulter: wow, another huge loss for the PGA
- Jon Rahm:
- Cameron Smith:
- Henrik Stenson:
- Bubba Watson:
- Lee Westwood:
That's 15 A-list golfers and I probably missed a few. And those 15 could have easily been at the top of the leaderboard this Saturday.
It's not too much to argue that the only player of note for The Players on Saturday will be "Scottie."
The PGA almanac will have to place an asterisk against the name of The Players champion this weekend.
The PGA is in a fight for its life. See this post from August 27, 2023.
Again, it's amazing the amount of time the Golf Channel is devoting to Tiger Woods in anticipation of the event to begin tomorrow. "They're" still hoping that Tiger Woods plays one more tournament. Not gonna happen. He's scheduled to play The Masters this year. We'll see.
Except of die-hard golf fans, The Players, this year, has become irrelevant and not worth watching, except perhaps late Sunday afternoon.
Soundbites While Studying Duolingo — March 13, 2024
Locator: 46747B.
Costco: total number of cardholders increased to 132 million as of the end of the second quarter. Costco has 875 warehouses worldwide. Number of US households: 131.8 million.
Fisker exploring possible bankruptcy filing. CNBC
Top ten by market cap: JPMorgan joins the top ten which already includes BRK. TSLA fell out of the top ten. CNBC.
Fed rate: no cut this year. Tea leaves.
Chipotle: hits new high.
Gasoline demand: nice spike. Unexpected with price of gasoline in mid-March.
TikTok: US House votes to ban TikTok. Huge bipartisan support. Vote so lopsided Gene Munster said it looked like a “typo.” What’s SNAP doing?
Energy stocks: hitting all-time highs. Added to existing positions in last few weeks. At least two pay >7%. The refiners, particularly. Amazing. Tim’s BICEP includes CVX. CNBC.
TSLA: Wells Fargo, one word — SELL. EV euphoria dead. Legacy ICE will make money hand-over-fist. No recommendations.
Cramer: has pivoted from trading to investing. CNBC, "Mad Money" intro.
LBSAX: This fund is a most interesting fund considering what Jim Cramer said on CNBC tonight. It may be diversified and doing well but based on what Cramer said tonight, not likely that he would recommend this fund. Me? No recommendations. This is not an investment site. See disclaimers. Of interest only.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:38.
WTI:
One new permit: #40583.
- Operator: Neptune Operating
- Field: Ragged Butte (McKenzie County)
- Comments Neptune has a permit for a Lee South well, SESW 17-151-101; to be sited 357 FSL and 1675 FWL
Ten permits renewed:
- Oasis: six Lars permits and four MHA permits, the former in Cottonwood, and the latter in Heart Butte.
Two producing wells reported as completed:
- 37926, 137, BR, Boxer 2C TFH, Pershing, no production data,
- 39778, 1,934, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 8-18HSL, Elm Tree, no production reported yet; nine wells on this pad; I didn't check them all but it appears that all nine have just been fracked and almost ready to start reporting production. These will important to watch. The maps for #39778: Tarentaise wells are tracked here.
PSA -- Schwab -- Trade Settlement Period Shortened To One Day -- March 13, 2024
Locator: 46746INV.
This is important for a number of reasons.
If nothing else, "date of record" comes a day sooner which means that folks who cut purchases at the last minute for the dividend have an extra day to procrastinate.
Press release: tag MDU Everus.
Inflation, Energy, Power, US Dominance, It's All Good -- March 13, 2024
Locator: 46745B.
If you have time, today, to read just one article on the state of the economy, this is it -- plus a week's worth of CNBC interviews and observations. Link here, from Barron's:
Data centers: not gonna be enough power. The fix is not renewable and it won't be overnight. No, nuclear is not the answer -- not in my investing lifetime. My investing lifetime -- twenty years.
Link here. One of my favorite graphs. It's been a long time since we've seen this graph updated by the EIA. I wonder if folks see in this chart what I'm seeing?
Link here. A recurring theme on the blog.
Bitcoin mining, data center buildout and energy now followed here.
From the linked article:
Vast swaths of the United States are at risk of running short of power as electricity-hungry data centers and clean-technology factories proliferate around the country, leaving utilities and regulators grasping for credible plans to expand the nation’s creaking power grid.
In Georgia, demand for industrial power is surging to record highs, with the projection of new electricity use for the next decade now 17 times what it was only recently.
Arizona Public Service, the largest utility in that state, is also struggling to keep up, projecting it will be out of transmission capacity before the end of the decade absent major upgrades.
Northern Virginia needs the equivalent of several large nuclear power plants to serve all the new data centers planned and under construction.
Texas, where electricity shortages are already routine on hot summer days, faces the same dilemma.
Only thing wrong with this article? North Dakota was not mentioned.
**************************
Previously
Locator: 46737B.
Breaking: Both President Biden and Donald Trump clinch their party's respective nomination. Good, bad, or indifferent, this is quite a milestone.
Now, back to regular programming.
- 2019, pre-pandemic: Americans drive record number of vehicle miles per day (average);
- it took four / five years, but finally,
- 2023: US reaches a record 8.9 billion vehicle miles per day, setting a new all-time record, albeit barely
- EIA predicts new records to be set in 2024 and 2025
Locator: 46700B.
Under the Biden administration, link here, Carl Q:
The Bakken revolution, link here:
Intel Day -- March 13, 2024
Locator: 46744INTC.
Updates
March 17, 2024: Oracle takes on Microsoft.
Original Post
Story everywhere. This is one link. Don't even get me started. INTC is the darling of Wall Street and the White House. Intel will do just fine, thank you.
Intel will have at least one advantage in 2025. Motley Fool.
Something's got to give: link here.
EV Euphoria Is Dead -- March 13, 2024
Locator: 46743EVS.
Updates
Later, 7:17 p.m. CDT: another "misdirect," tone-deaf individual, link here.
EV euphoria is dead. Link here. Autos are back and they are going to have a great decade. They're tired of letting the tail (Biden's and Newsom's "green" energy talk) wag the dog (auto manufacturers).
They will use fake EVs (hybrids) to meet state mandates which will be watered down anyway.
Polestar: prices coming down.
So, an $80,000 EV from China. Okay. My pet peeve: an "ad" disguise as a news story.
Speaking of which: Phil. LeBeau -- apologist for Boeing.
Wow, he posted a slanted story this morning with regard to Boeing. He truly impacts the credibility of CNBC.
Remember that Alaska Airline Boeing a/c that suffered severe depressurization problems a few months ago? It turns out the plane's warning lights actually warned of a possible catastrophic depressurization but Alaska made the decision to check the warning light problem "after" completing scheduled flights for that aircraft for the day. Not only did Phil LeBeau not tell us about the pressurization warning lights but then once pressed he reported what the warning lights were reporting, he a) either couldn't connect the dots due to ignorance; and/or, b) he didn't want to as an apologist for Boeing.
That's my personal opinion, not a fact, and I could be wrong. I'm sure others have their own thoughts.
Now, Back To That SCCO News -- March 13, 2024
Locator: 46742INV.
I guess I can go out and buy Sophia some new soccer cleats. LOL.
From CNBC:
Tea leaves: no cut in the Fed rate this year.
Weekly EIA Report -- Week Ending March 8, 2024 -- Posted March 13, 2024
Locator: 46741EIA.
- US crude oil: at 447 million bbls, crude oil in storage in the US is 3% below the five-year average, and decreased by 1.5 million bbls w/w -- which is absolutely negligible and shouldn't affect price of oil;
- US imports of crude oil at 5.5 million bbls is with the ballpark of what crude oil imports are week after week; in fact, it's only a paltry 3% over same time period one year ago
- refiners have stepped up their activity and are now at 86.8% of capacity, but still way below what they could be if push-came-shove
- distillates are 7% below the five-year average which sounds bad but it's been so much worse in the recent past
- jet fuel product supplied was up 2% compared to last year -- but hardly noteworthy.
So, what's driving the price of oil? Ukraine has torched two Russian refineries. So ironic: if Biden's sanctions on Russia aren't working (LOL), Ukraine will do it themselves.
Wednesday -- March 24, 2024
Locator: 46740B.
Investing:
- Bill Baruch: Blue Line Capital: founder and president called into "Half-Time Report" on CNBC, last week, now allowed to reporting investment changes
- sold ARM
- bought SCCO -- really, really excited about SCCO -- huge breakout today; one of the best in its sector
- bought PSX -- a "small" breakout also today -- a refiner
- personal investing:
- I've never owned ARM
- built huge position over the years; it's still on my "new money" list
- PSX: significant holding in my portfolio; built up over years;
- no longer on my new money list, and unlikely to ever get back on that list
- no recommendations; see disclaimer; because I don't use e-mail any more this is my way of letting family / other contacts know what I'm doing -- but again, no recommendations; this is not an investing site
**************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: up 2.11%; up $1.64; now trading at $79.20.
Thursday, March 14, 2024: 113 for the month; 172 for the quarter, 172 for the year
None.
39401, conf, Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-3,
39250, conf, Whiting, S-Bar Brandon 5393 34-1 5T,
38102, conf, BR, Stafford 01-34TFH,
RBN Energy: E&Ps. trim 2024 CAPEX, stalling growth to prioritize free cash flow and returns.
When legendary University of Texas football coach Darrell Royal was asked how he approached important games, he frequently said, “You dance with the one who brung ya,” which meant sticking with the strategy that produced previous success. After struggling through a period of extreme price volatility in 2014-20, U.S. E&Ps finally locked onto a game plan that works: They wooed back investors and regained financial stability by focusing on generating free cash flow and returning a lot of that bounty to shareholders. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze E&Ps’ 2024 capex and production guidance, which shows that producers have embraced Royal’s concept of sticking with what works.