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Friday, March 8, 2024

Three New Permits; Six Permits Renewed -- March 8, 2024

Locator: 46706B.

Active rigs: 42.

WTI: $78.01.

Three new permits, #40574 - #40577, inclusive:

  • Operators: KODA Resources (2); Empire North Dakota)
  • Fields: Fertile Valley (Divide County); Starbuck (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
    • KODA Resources, has permits for two Amber wells, SWSW 13-160-103, 
      • both to be sited 505 FSL with one sited 375 FWL and the other 410 FWL;
    • Empire North Dakota has a permit for a Red Horse well, SESW 32-161-78, 
      • to be sited 205 FSL and 2500 FWL

Six permits renewed:

  • Foundation Energy (3): three Mosser Federal permits, Elkhorn Ranch, Billings County
  • Minnkota Power Coop (3): a Liberty permit, a Unity permit, and a McCall permit, all wildcat permits, Oliver County

Week 10: March 4, 2024 -- March 10, 2024

Locator: 46705TOPSTORY.

Top story:

  • SOTU

    Top international non-energy story:

    • Red Sea remains closed; attacks on US Navy surge; seems unable to effectively counter;

    Top international energy story:

    • OPEC+ extends production cuts for several months 

    Top national non-energy story:

    Top national energy story:

    • natural gas still at $1.80 in the US

    Focus on fracking: link here.

    Top North Dakota non-energy story:

    • data centers using huge amounts of energy; “no one” gets it yet.

    Top North Dakota energy story:


    Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

    TGIF -- Part 2 -- March 8, 2024

    Locator: 46704B.

    TSMC: to receive $5 billion from Biden administration. CHIPS Act. Earlier:

    • Global Foundries: $1.5 billion
    • INTC: in talks for grants; can't remember distribution for INTC has been announced; at one time in talks for $10 billion per non-government sources;

     Market cap:

    • Novo Nordisk (obesity drug) now surpassed Tesla (batteries):
    • Novo Nordisk says it will take several years for supply to meet demand

    Osprey: cleared for flight again.

    The wedge: this is really, really funny. This writer has the same emotional experience with his MacBook Air that I have with mine. He loves the "wedge" design of the Macbook Air and is "sad" to see the end of the "wedge" with the new MacBook Air. He plans to hold on to his MacBook Air as long as possible.

    I was unaware that Apple had discontinued the wedge design until I saw this article after seeing similar "sadness" mention in social comments over at MacRumors. Oh, my goodness. That's awful. I agree with the writer. I love the "wedge." 

    My hunch is that the extra space was for increased battery space or more room for a heat sink: the M3 will need more power and will generate more heat, and thus a larger heat sink.

    Link here.


    Lego: in my note on re-sale value of retired Lego sets, I forgot to include this, the #1 in this category. Link here. This Star Wars set was retired 20 years ago. Original retail price was $99.99 (no typo -- less than $100). Now it sells for almost $9,000 if one can find it. Wow.

    TGIF -- March 8, 2024

    Locator: 46703B.

    Both S&P 500 and NASDAQ are at new highs. Over and over and over, every guest on CNBC is raving how great this jobs report is. Facts I did not know with regard to mmigrants:

    • no matter how they get here, they are eligible to work in this country in six months after arrival;
    • their first court hearing on whether to be allowed to stay in US or not: six years; that wait will only lengthen -- giving more time for these new immigrants to grow into US economy
    • as noted many times on the blog: the southern surge no longer bothers me; huge pivot for me -- about eighteen months ago -- don't remember exactly when;
    • 2022: US immigration service authorized 1.2 million "jobs" for immigrants, regardless of how they got here;
    • 2023: US immigration increased that number to 2.0 million jobs for immigrants
    • not one first world county is seeing population growth except the US and it's all due to immigration
    • immigration is a $7 trillion gift for the US -- previously posted

    Chart: this is simply incredible. Another 52-week high. And this is despite AAPL falling from 195 to 170. Wow. S&P 500 only 18 points from a new 52-week high.


    Market cap
    :

    • AAPL: $2.6 trillion
    • NVDA: $2..3 trillion

    Costco (COST): down 3.5% this morning

    • they should increased prices on their rotisserie chicken
    • seriously, I don't know what this means for Costco -- misses on revenues during holiday season;
    • I think I know but won't post; don't need the pushback

    Grids: this is amazing -- big discussion with Cramer, Carl, and Faber -- this morning -- I think I just posted something on that -- just yesterday?

    • data center growth my slow because there simply won't be enough power
    • Morgan Stanley (personal source -- last night) says that we're going to see huge explosion in new natural gas plants to generate electricity; simply no alternative for fast build
    • sure, nuclear -- but that will take years
    • another beneficiary: CCS
    ***************************
    EV Notes

    Tesla: folks may want to google tesla cybertruck resale debacle

    • very, very interesting; several observations / comments could be made; maybe later
    • many, many links; status confusing; this link seems to be most recent but with Musk one never knows from hour to hour what is going to happen next
    • Quartz
    • a lot is packed into this headline:


    Rivian
    : huge pivot; will manufacture the new Rivian models at their Normal, IL, plant which they had planned to mothball (IIRC)

    • now, will pause plans on their $5 billion plant in Georgia
    • pundits seem to be taking the word of Rivian that they will eventually build that Georgia plant; the tea leaves suggest otherwise
    • this was going to be the biggest project -- measured in dollars -- that the state ever saw; governor probably not happy. 
    • Cramer loves Rivian. for what it's worth, I don't;

    Proterra: I either did not know, or I had forgotten; Proterra declared bankruptcy several months ago; continues to operate;

    *********************
    Others

    Amazon: I just love Amazon. Same day delivery; sometimes within two hours; can order at 10:00 p.m. and product will be at my door by 6:00 a.m. I was reminded of that when Amazon sent me a notice reminding me that my subscription for several items (K-cups, anchovies, Rogaine) are scheduled to delivery soon and wanted to make sure if I wanted to keep / change the delivery. The price is discounted with subscription.

    Peter Zeihan: talk about prescient. What keeps him up at night (as in being worried). If there's any disruption in semiconductor industry.

    ********************************
    Back to the Bakken

    WTI: 78.54.

    Sunday, March 10, 2024: 103 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 162 for the year
    39483, conf, Oasis, Ledahl 5402 42-33 4B,

    Saturday, March 9, 2024: 102 for the month; 161 for the quarter, 161 for the year
    39794, conf, Petro-Hunt, Terres 144-98-13A-24-3H,
    39611, conf, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-2-11-6H,
    39505, conf, Oasis, Pocono 5302 33-4 4B,
    39504, conf, Oasis, Pocono 5302 33-4 3B,

    Friday, March 8, 2024: 98 for the month; 157 for the quarter, 157 for the year
    39793, conf, Petro-Hunt, Terres 144-97-18B-19-1H,
    39739, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 5-36-25H,
    39738, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-36-25H,

    RBN Energy: industry groups pitch plenty of alterations to hydrogen's "three pillars."

    When the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was passed into law in August 2022, it earned near-unanimous acclaim from longtime supporters of renewable energy and decarbonization efforts. Industry types also approved of the bill’s focus on incentives to fuel new developments. One of its most ambitious elements was creation of the 45V production tax credit (PTC) for clean hydrogen, a central part of the Biden administration’s efforts to build a clean-energy economy.
    But while the PTC may have a significant impact on the U.S. energy landscape over the long run, the December 2023 rollout of the proposed rulemaking has generated no small amount of criticism. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll lay out some of the changes that some say should be included in the final rulemaking to help the clean-hydrogen economy make a quick break from the starting gate instead of getting left at the back of the pack.

    Holy Mackerel — 3.9% Unemployment — Hiring Blows Past Expectations — February, 2024

    Locator: 46702JOBS.

    Personal investing:
    • will buy more AAPL today; no recommendation; see disclaimer.

    New jobs: 275,000 vs 198,000.

    CNBC comments:
    • Liesman: blah blah blah — nothing remarkable -- not much inflationary pressure
    Others:
    • a win for the bulls for a soft landing
    • very much a soft landing report; wage growth declined; Fed needs to cut May or June
    • seems to confirm JPow's path to a soft landing
      • June cut more likely than May cut; one more month of data needed to confirm this most recent data
    • one analyst no longer pays attention to "jobs" -- 
      • says immigration surge has completely distorted this metric
      • instead of jobs, follows the ratio -- the unemployment rate; in this case, 3.9%
      • surprisingly no one really talked about why unemployment rate went up -- I assume because it simply suggests the Fed's tightening is working 
    • another analyst: also agrees that "this is a pretty good report"; wage report again, nice to see;
    Cramer:
    • again, like me, surprised how far the estimate was off
    • the report as far as the market goes: both Cramer and Farber -- PERFECT -- a PERFECT report
    • used the word "Goldilocks" but quickly pivoted to PERFECT
    • says JPow isn't talking about a "soft landing."
    • JPow is talking about the best economy the best county in the world can provide -- JPow is not talking about "soft landing"
    Market: liked the report.

    Part time jobs: that was the big story — directly related to minimum wage
    • small companies can't afford to hire full-time due to minimum wage
    • could explain part time jobs
    BLS: link here.