Pages

Friday, March 8, 2024

Holy Mackerel — 3.9% Unemployment — Hiring Blows Past Expectations — February, 2024

Locator: 46702JOBS.

Personal investing:
  • will buy more AAPL today; no recommendation; see disclaimer.

New jobs: 275,000 vs 198,000.

CNBC comments:
  • Liesman: blah blah blah — nothing remarkable -- not much inflationary pressure
Others:
  • a win for the bulls for a soft landing
  • very much a soft landing report; wage growth declined; Fed needs to cut May or June
  • seems to confirm JPow's path to a soft landing
    • June cut more likely than May cut; one more month of data needed to confirm this most recent data
  • one analyst no longer pays attention to "jobs" -- 
    • says immigration surge has completely distorted this metric
    • instead of jobs, follows the ratio -- the unemployment rate; in this case, 3.9%
    • surprisingly no one really talked about why unemployment rate went up -- I assume because it simply suggests the Fed's tightening is working 
  • another analyst: also agrees that "this is a pretty good report"; wage report again, nice to see;
Cramer:
  • again, like me, surprised how far the estimate was off
  • the report as far as the market goes: both Cramer and Farber -- PERFECT -- a PERFECT report
  • used the word "Goldilocks" but quickly pivoted to PERFECT
  • says JPow isn't talking about a "soft landing."
  • JPow is talking about the best economy the best county in the world can provide -- JPow is not talking about "soft landing"
Market: liked the report.

Part time jobs: that was the big story — directly related to minimum wage
  • small companies can't afford to hire full-time due to minimum wage
  • could explain part time jobs
BLS: link here.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.