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Thursday, March 7, 2024

Just Off The Radar Scope: US Energy Grids -- March 7, 2024

Locator: 46701B.

Link here.

From the linked article:

Vast swaths of the United States are at risk of running short of power as electricity-hungry data centers and clean-technology factories proliferate around the country, leaving utilities and regulators grasping for credible plans to expand the nation’s creaking power grid.
In Georgia, demand for industrial power is surging to record highs, with the projection of new electricity use for the next decade now 17 times what it was only recently.
Arizona Public Service, the largest utility in that state, is also struggling to keep up, projecting it will be out of transmission capacity before the end of the decade absent major upgrades.
Northern Virginia needs the equivalent of several large nuclear power plants to serve all the new data centers planned and under construction.
Texas, where electricity shortages are already routine on hot summer days, faces the same dilemma.

Only thing wrong with this article? North Dakota was not mentioned.

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BFFs

Two New Permits; Thirteen Oil And Gas Permits Renewed -- March 7, 2024

Locator: 46700B.

Under the Biden administration, link here, Carl Q:

The Bakken revolution, link here:

Television:

  • White Collar: this past week, every night, before going to bed, I watch and re-watch the last two episodes of this series. 
    • I think I've seen the last two episodes, now, eight times.
    • the director pulled out all stops in the final episode;
  • Out of Africa, TCM, "Month of Oscar," tonight.
  • President Biden's legacy speech, the 2024 State of the Union speech.

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Back to the Bakken

Locator: 46700B.

WTI: $79.37.

Active rigs: 2.

Two new permits, #40570 and #40571:

  • Operators: Empire North Dakota; Hess
  • Fields: Starbuck (Bottineau);  Big Butte (EN-Binger-157-1201H-2)
  • Comments:
    • Empire has a permit for a Merganser well, NWSE 29-161-78, 
      • to be sited 2120 FSL and 1687 FEL; and;
    • Hess has a permit for a EN-Binger well, SESW 12-157-94; 
      • to be sited 764 FSL and 2283 FWL;

Thirteen oil and gas permits renewed:

  • Zavanna (6):
  • Northwestern Production (3):
  • Foundation Energy (3):
  • Henry Hill Oil:

Broadcom, Costco -- March 7, 2024

Locator: 46699INV.

 COSTCO:


The Art Of Charging An EV -- The Seventh Level Of Hell -- March 7, 2024

Locator: 46698EVCHARGING.

If you thought running out of gas is bad, you haven’t experienced the seventh level of hell until you experience a dead battery and a broken charging unit.

Link here.

I don't understand the business media's fascination with these losers. Well, maybe I do. 

 
Google: how to "fast charge" an EV? Link here.

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Understanding EV Charging
A PhD in Electrical Engineering Will Help

Re-posting.

Locator: 45415B. 

 Updates

December 10, 2023: F-150 Lightning update.

December 10, 2023: EV chargers -- nice update.

August 27, 2023: tech writer for The WSJ buys an EV for the family. The "buying experience" here at "YouTube." Exactly why EVs will not catch on for a long, long time. 

Original Post

I know very little about cars or car engines, but when shopping for a new car, all I need to know is mpg. One number. Okay, two: city / highway.
  • I never ask about range
  • I never ask about the kind of pump I need to use
I know nothing about electricity and nothing about EVs, but when shopping for a new car, I need to know:
  • type of connector
  • type of charging station 
  • the size of the tire which affects range
  • range on a fully charged battery (see below)
    • a very cold day
    • a “normal” day
    • a very hot day
  • level charging station: level 1, 2, or 3
  • how long does it take to fully charge the vehicle
  • how do I know when it is optimally charged? What is the optimal charging range?
  • advertised range vs actual range (this is more relevant than you will ever realize until after you’ve bought the car);
This is how I understand it (right, wrong, or indifferent) now. This is how I would explain it to Sophia, subject to editing, correcting, and adding more information as I get a better understanding and as technology, batteries, charging stations evolve over time.

The links:
This is the most important graphic. It doesn't require any understanding of anything; just keep the graphic in you mind. 


What to note in the graph:
  • the left side of the graph/chart: 
  • the charging stations you see in parking lots around town
  • measured in kW (you don't even have to know what a kW is -- just know that's how EV charging station ports are "rated;
  • in the example: one charging port is rated at 7.5 kW; the other charting port is rated at 60 kW
  • some existing ports are now rated higher than 60 kW
  • as time goes on, the ratings will increase in size (power)the right side of the chart:
    • this is your car, your EV
    • when you talk to your dealer or to you friend, you will ask about / talk about the "size of the battery" or the "battery's energy" -- or whatever the phrase is
    • if you don't have much money, the EV you buy will have a battery with a lower energy rating, such as 15 kWh in this example;
    • if you are rich, you will be able to afford an EV with a "bigger battery" -- such as 120 kWh in this example
    • like most things in life (but not golf scores), bigger is better
    • buy the "biggest" EV you can afford
Charging: in the graph above -- 
  • when you pull into a charging station, the greater the rating of the charging station, in this case 7.5 vs 56, the faster you can charge your EV
  • so, why doesn't everyone just plug into the the charging port / station with the higher / highest rating, 56 in this case
  • you can't plug your cheap little EV into a charging station that has too much power for your little pathetic EV
  • so, in the example above, if your pathetic little EV is rated at 15 kWh, it cannot plug into a charging unit with a higher rating. 
  • so, in the example above, you can only plug your 15-kWh-rated pathetic little EV into the 7.5-kW-rated charging port / station
And that's all you need to know.

Except for this, in the graph above: the small print.
In the graphic above, the bigger car rated at 120kWh pulls up to the charging unit rated at 60kW. The car takes a charge for two hours. Two (2) hrs x 60 kW = 120 kWh which is what the bigger car in the graph above is rated. 
So, a "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh can be fully charged in two hours if plugged into a charger rated at 60 kW.

If that "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh pulls into a charging station rated at 7.5 kW, it will take .... 120 / 7.5  = 16 hours to fully charge.

Okay, so that's all you need to know.

But there's a lot more one can know if one is interested.

We shouldn't have to say this but an EV rated at 120 kWH can "last longer" (longer range, all things being equal) than a pathetic little EV rated at 15 kWh.
 
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Charging Stations

Level 1 vs level 2 vs level 3 charging stations
 
Level 1
  • 120 volts — AC
  • your garage
  • absolutely worthless
Level 2
  • 240 volts — AC
  • can be installed in your garage
  • In the Target parking lot
  • at 60 kW, two hours to “achieve” 120 kWh, so four hours to fully charge a soccer mom’s SUV
Level 3
  • 480 volts — DC
  • not at your house, ever

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Connectors
 
Connector type: non-Tesla
  • J1772: level 1 and level 2
  • CCS1: level 3
NCAS for all Tesla modelslink here.

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Miscellaneous

Other facts / factoids / opinions / comments:
  • hybrids are fake EVs -- they are the worst thing one can buy in the "EV family" but Ford is now transitioning to hybrids ... more on that later. Ford will sell a lot of hybrids, as well as Toyota will sell a lot of hybrids. That's good for the car companies but bad for you; really bad for the roads (but you won't care about that); and really, really, bad for the environment (again, something yo won't care about. You will be happy just knowing that you are part of the EV community).
  • Ford is "going all out" with hybrids. Link here.
  • charging stations prone to “breaking down”; generally, outside of big cities, if the charging station you visit is “out of order,” you are really “out of luck.” If you thought running out of gas is bad, you haven’t experienced the seventh level of hell until you experience a dead battery and a broken charging unit.

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Meanwhile, Earlier Today

Headline of the day: now it's an existential issue -- accomplished tech expert shows us how to charge an EV and headline writer noted she "lived to tell the story." I can't make this stuff up.

EVs:

  • Tesla Model S sedan: 2012
  • today, 2024, WSJ contributor, long-read article, on challenges of charging her Ford EV
    • I'm wondering whether I should stop at Shell today or XOM tomorrow to fill the gasoline tank of my 2011 Honda Civic which gets about 35 mpg (80% highway, 20% city)
    • it's a daily worry I have: refueling my ICE
    • time to do a full page story on refueling my Honda for WSJ readers

If Chevron Can’t Buy Hess, Could … March 7, 2024

Locator: 46697CVX.

I’ll let readers finish the question. It’s a pretty clever idea.

Hint: what’s in a name?

On another note, all-time highs today, link here.

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The Gardening Page

Five photos, each one taken in the morning at the same time, for five consecutive days:




Just Getting Started -- March 7, 2024

Locator: 46696B.

These are just the headlines -- I have a lot of reading to do today. I will come back to a few of these stories later. ChargePoint is in the wings, as they say, or in the batter's box. 

Shrinkflation is how CNBC titled this graph; look at the huge drop in prices. Wow, even CNBC anchor seemed surprised but then spun the story: 

Interestingly the CNBC anchor seemed skeptical of industry-wide collusion to keep prices high to maximize profits.

Obesity crisis in the US: I'm not completely averse to smaller portions of Rice Krispies treats, or even less chips in a potato chips bag.

Cost of Ozempic: $900 for a 30-day supply.

Black Heritage Month: somewhat disappointed. Was it just my imagination or did others notice this also -- it seems BHM was rather subdued this month. Perhaps overshadowed by anti-Sematism, anti-Muslim controversy. I don't know but it just seems I didn't see much on cable this past month. 

Headline of the day: now it's an existential issue -- accomplished tech expert shows us how to charge an EV and headline writer noted she "lived to tell the story." I can't make this stuff up.

EVs:

  • Tesla Model S sedan: 2012
  • today, 2024, WSJ contributor, long-read article, on challenges of charging her Ford EV
    • I'm wondering whether I should stop at Shell today or XOM tomorrow to fill the gasoline tank of my 2011 Honda Civic which gets about 35 mpg (80% highway, 20% city)
    • it's a daily worry I have: refueling my ICE
    • time to do a full page story on refueling my Honda for WSJ readers
  • Rivian: investors upbeat; one incredibly important data point not disclosed in this article; but I give up; if folks don't see this, it's not worth my time to point it out.
  • at the Verge, the unveiling
    • cost of production: $60,000 (estimate, needs to be fact-checked)
    • MSRP: $45,000

FuelCell Energy:

  • I'm having trouble reading the y-axis -- looks like this penny stock once sold for $7,000; needs to be fact-checked;

Toyota:

  • doesn't sell a single pure EV in this country (needs to be fact-checked)
  • Toyota will gain more US market share than any other car company this year; link here.

Lego:

  • amazing
  • Lego 100
  • set #10221:
    • retail price when released in 2011: $399.99.
    • retired in 2014; lifespan of only 34 months.
    • current value: $1,378.
    • perfect set not in box: $1,125.
    • available locally for $900.
  • set #10123 Cloud City
    • released: 2003, $99.99;
    • retired
    • current value: $8,500

AAPL: +/- today.

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The Book Page

Camera Girl: The Coming of Age of Jackie Bouvier Kennedy, Carl Sferrazza Anthony, 2023, p. 17:

This describes scenes in The Great Gatsby, the most recent movie version, to a "t" as they say, including, amazingly, the geographic location and the protagonist's past. Wow.

Never quit reading.

GDP Now Estimate — 1Q24 — 2.5 — March 6, 2024

Locator: 46695GDP.

2.5.

Up from 2.1 previously.

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Lego

Added to my collection this past week.

Link here.

Saudi Cash -- January, 2024

Locator: 46694KSA.

Note: KSA is pronounced "cash."

Largely irrelevant but will “confuse” things for awhile.

Link here.

Several Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today, Tomorrow -- March 7, 2024

Locator: 46693B.

WTI: $78.63.

Friday, March 8, 2024: 98 for the month; 157 for the quarter, 157 for the year
39793, conf, Petro-Hunt, Terres 144-97-18B-19-1H,
39739, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 5-36-25H,
39738, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-36-25H,

Thursday, March 7, 2024: 95 for the month; 154 for the quarter, 154 for the year
40054, conf, Oasis, K2 Holdings 5401 11-31 3B,
39612, conf, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-2-11-6H,
39585, conf, Whiting, DE Bud 44-32-5H,

RBN Energy: EIA's latest approach to weather modeling promises forecast improvements.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently changed the weather forecast methodology for one of its most important energy models — the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) — and while we talk about the effects of weather on energy markets fairly often (571 times in the past 12 years, or about once a week, but who’s counting?), we rarely take a step back and explain how those weather forecasts are used. In today’s RBN blog, we look at different approaches to weather forecasting, the recent change made by the EIA, and how the new approach might affect our understanding of EIA forecasts.

Weather has a significant impact on the demand for — and sometimes, the supply of — a number of hydrocarbon commodities, especially natural gas and propane, but also heating oil and other fuels. The benefits of accurate weather forecasts are obvious: For example, a month-ahead or quarter-ahead prediction of a frigid January in Massachusetts or a lingering July heat wave in Texas would be of major value to a wide range of market participants, including electric-grid planners, power generators, and natural gas marketers and pipelines, not to mention propane and heating-oil dealers in New England. In addition to helping markets anticipate fuel demand, forecasts of extreme weather also can signal prospective challenges with fuel supply, such as well freeze-offs that temporarily slash production of natural gas (or blizzards that make some commercial/residential fuel deliveries virtually impossible.