Several Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today, Tomorrow -- March 7, 2024

Locator: 46693B.

WTI: $78.63.

Friday, March 8, 2024: 98 for the month; 157 for the quarter, 157 for the year
39793, conf, Petro-Hunt, Terres 144-97-18B-19-1H,
39739, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 5-36-25H,
39738, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-36-25H,

Thursday, March 7, 2024: 95 for the month; 154 for the quarter, 154 for the year
40054, conf, Oasis, K2 Holdings 5401 11-31 3B,
39612, conf, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-2-11-6H,
39585, conf, Whiting, DE Bud 44-32-5H,

RBN Energy: EIA's latest approach to weather modeling promises forecast improvements.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently changed the weather forecast methodology for one of its most important energy models — the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) — and while we talk about the effects of weather on energy markets fairly often (571 times in the past 12 years, or about once a week, but who’s counting?), we rarely take a step back and explain how those weather forecasts are used. In today’s RBN blog, we look at different approaches to weather forecasting, the recent change made by the EIA, and how the new approach might affect our understanding of EIA forecasts.

Weather has a significant impact on the demand for — and sometimes, the supply of — a number of hydrocarbon commodities, especially natural gas and propane, but also heating oil and other fuels. The benefits of accurate weather forecasts are obvious: For example, a month-ahead or quarter-ahead prediction of a frigid January in Massachusetts or a lingering July heat wave in Texas would be of major value to a wide range of market participants, including electric-grid planners, power generators, and natural gas marketers and pipelines, not to mention propane and heating-oil dealers in New England. In addition to helping markets anticipate fuel demand, forecasts of extreme weather also can signal prospective challenges with fuel supply, such as well freeze-offs that temporarily slash production of natural gas (or blizzards that make some commercial/residential fuel deliveries virtually impossible.