Locator: 46631EVS.
I’ve never seen a story collapse as fast as the EV story has fallen … in less than two months … January - February.
Now it’s FSR falling 37% on the last day of February.
On another note: Arrival, UK-EV in bankruptcy.
Rivian and Ford now have Tesla Super Charging access. Huge dollars for Elon Musk.
Locator: 46630TEDDYBEAR.
If I had all the money in the world, I would make sure that along with at least one real meal each day, I would make sure each child under the age of ten years of age in the Gaza Strip would get a teddy bear (or the appropriate counterpart in this part of the world).
Locator: 46629ATLAS.
This story was behind a paywall over at The Bismarck Tribune. From the linked article:
A major North Dakota utility -- MDU -- says it is being overcharged by a regional grid operator -- SSP -- for the electricity demands related to a power-hungry cryptocurrency mine -- Atlas -- in the northwest part of the state -- Williston. These costs are being passed on to ratepayers.
Bismarck-based Montana-Dakota Utilities filed a complaint with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in January. The issue is not the demand from the crypto mine itself, but rather the costs for the strain that MDU says the mine's operations are putting on a power line which travels from Grassy Butte to Watford City and serves some of the utility's customers in northwest North Dakota.
This strain creates congestion which occurs due to constraints on transmission infrastructure. It happens when the lowest-cost power cannot be sent to customers without overloading a line, leading to higher prices and causing utilities to sometimes curtail electricity.
MDU says it started incurring the excess costs after the Atlas Power Data Center went into operation last year. That is a 200 megawatt facility which is expected to use 700 megawatts once buildout is complete. It is powered by Mountrail-Williams Electric Cooperative. For comparison, many recently approved wind farms in North Dakota produce around 150 megawatts of power.
Getting charged for congestion when it happens is normal for a utility, but MDU alleges it is being charged twice for one problem by the Southwest Power Pool, a Regional Transmission Organization that manages the grid -- a market where power is bought and sold. MDU is a part of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, another Transmission Organization, but entered into a contract with SPP, paying it to use some of SPP members' lines in northwest North Dakota......
SPP disputes MDU's complaint in its filings. An SPP spokeswoman declined further comment citing the pending case and pointed the Tribune to its FERC filings.
The first congestion charge comes from the contract MDU has with SPP, and the utility does not object to it. But the second comes as the result of an agreement between SPP and MISO to establish a "market-to-market" mechanism. Energy demands in one RTO region can have large impacts on another due to their proximity. Market-to-markets are put in place to manage this. In this case, SPP used the mechanism to levy a charge against MISO that signaled the need for its members to turn on more electric generation, according to State Public Service Commission Analyst Adam Renfandt. This charge got passed on to MDU. Market-to-market agreements are in place for lines across both RTOs' footprints, ranging from North Dakota to north Texas.....
Much, much, much more at the link.
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That's All Very Interesting, But Look At This
Governor Doug Burgum is welcoming crypto mining and data center companies into North Dakota, saying in a January 2022 news release that it will diversify the state’s economy and attract high-paying jobs. However, these companies have come under scrutiny for a variety of reasons, including their high energy use.
Although there are likely close to a hundred crypto mining operations in North Dakota, the six largest ones are Applied Digital with locations in Jamestown and Ellendale, Atlas Power Data Center in Williston, Rainbow Energy in Bismarck, Core Scientific in Grand Forks and Bitzero in Nekoma. These places house many servers with high computing power, requiring much energy to run.
“This major investment in North Dakota will further cement our state’s growing reputation as a hub for data centers and cryptocurrency mining, thanks to our incredibly reliable, affordable and redundant power supply and a climate that lowers cooling costs for data center operations,” Burgum said in the same news release.
North Dakota is considered one of the best states for crypto mining because of its low energy prices, stable energy grid, cool winters to keep the machines cold, low taxes and less government regulation. Commerce Commissioner Josh Teigen said these centers benefit North Dakotans by providing jobs, increasing revenue to the state through taxes, and helping the energy grid...The top three data centers in North Dakota together consume nearly as much power as every home in the state, according to the New York Times. However, Teigen said these companies are not taking power away from North Dakotans because the state exports over 90% of its electricity.
“We’re never going to see a case where a hospital loses power but the data center is still running,” Teigen said. “There’s a hierarchy of if curtailing needs to happen, what that priority level looks like and data centers are usually, especially on the crypto mining side, the first ones to get shut off.”
A spokesperson for the crypto mining center Core Scientific said it powers down its computers to conserve energy depending on the needs of the local population.
In northwest North Dakota, Atlas Power is being built by FX Solutions Inc. and is set to be the largest data center in the world. However, on June 20, the Williams County Commission told Mountrail-Williams Electric Cooperative to cut power to Atlas for not complying with building codes.
Much, much, much more at the link. And, not behind a paywall.
Locator: 46628INFLATIONWATCH.
Eggs: recent reports suggest eggs are running $3.29 or more for a dozen eggs, and probably much more expensive in downtown NYC. Well, here in north Texas (DFW), this came out today, one ad from Kroger's and one ad from Tom Thumb:
Eggs from "the store" will last about two weeks in the refrigerator (probably longer). Unwashed eggs directly from the farm will last at least eight weeks. At least that's what I was told by a local authority. I certainly wouldn't know but I know my eggs seem to "last forever."
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Meanwhile, At Target Today
Beer: time to stock up. Several brands, not just these three brands were on sale:
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Ketchup
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Empty Shelves
I see this only at our neighborhood Target and not at Albertson's, Tom Thumb, Kroger's, or Walmart, all within a three-minute bicycle ride and not at Market Street, a six-minute car drive.
This is not rare. I've noted this for the past year, if not longer.
Locator: 46627B.
NASDAQ: will close at new record high. Closed at 16,108. Well above the previous record high. This is not trivial. NASDAQ was up 144 points today.
Dow: negative almost all day, but also closed in the green. S&P was up 28 points at the close.
S&P: also a new record close. Hope folks are happy with their MMFs. I just got back from monthly luncheon "discussion" with Schwab. Topic for today: bonds. Presenter: advisor from wholly-owned subsidiary of Schwab, Wasmer Schroeder. S&P up 28 points; in the old days, the 10:1 ratio would mean a 280 point gain for the Dow. Reminder that Fed rates: they take the escalator when raising rates; they often take the elevator down when lowering rates.
HP Enterprise: says today it does not have enough -- or, there are not enough -- Nvidia blades for what they want to do to meet their strategic goals. Amazing, a company like HP Enterprise would say that. HP beat estimates, but that statement regarding Nvidia has analysts concerned. Remember, META bought "truckloads" of Nvidia blades last year in preparation, and there was another investor -- I forget the name now -- who bought a lot of Nvidia blades not for their own company, but to rent out to others, anticipating a shortage. HP Enterprise down 6% after hours.
Dell: had the opposite story. Had enough Nvidia blades. That's what they said. Up significantly after hours. "Buzz": it was all about having enough Nvidia blades. I have no idea. Just posting what I hear. Dell soared in after-market trading. Now up almost 20% after hours.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
Value: both HP and Dell are "cheap" based on PEs.
Industrial sector: that was supposed to be the story all day on CNBC today; hitting a new high in that sector, and CAT did hit a new high -- all of this needs to be fact-checked -- typing on the fly as reported by CNBC -- but with the reports coming from tech companies, all of a sudden CNBC has pivoted from industrial sector to tech sector.
CAT: well, that was accurate -- a new 52-week high.
Cloud storage: I absolutely hate to pay for cloud storage but I do spend a little .... but I resist -- but I can't win .... I keep needing more cloud storage -- but in the big scheme of things, this represents absolutely "nothing," I can only imagine what big users are spending for cloud storage and those data centers are all going to need blades, Nvidia or otherwise. Speaking of "otherwise" -- AMD.
AMD: also hit a new high today. Below is the close; it continues to move higher after hours.
Blades: the CNBC tech story is quickly turning into a story of "winners" / "losers" based on whether they were prepared for the fourth industrial revolution which was going to require a ton of Nvidia blades.
AAPL: continues to fall, though holding at $180. This has to be worrisome for Tim Cook, though a buying opportunity for others.
There's only one more tech company to cover. Which one is that? AVGO:
CHRD: most important to me in the energy sector.
Fast Money: already the narrative is starting to change. These folks are almost giddy -- starting with Dell and AMD. One "talking head" says it feels "frothy" and notes Dell has a P/E of 14. Say what? Frothy?
E-mail address: I wonder how many MAGA / Trump folks are giving on-line Fox News their e-mail addresses to read Fox stories?
I've removed Fox News from my drop-down menu of bookmarks. I think it's hilarious. Majority of Fox followers are huge conspiracy theorists (needs to be fact-checked) and now they need to give Fox News their e-mail addresses to read their news. On top of that, Fox News seems to be obsessed by the TV game show Wheel of Fortune. Speaks volumes of the demographic that follows Fox News. Personally I don't get. Is Trump a secret backer of Wheel of Fortune.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $78.26.
Active rigs: 40.
Two new permits, #40556 and #40557:
Permit for #40556: note, 2880 acres but six sections.
Normally, six sections (6 x 640) would be 3840 acres. It turns out that is a standup drilling unit, 2 x 3 with three of the sections along the Montana state line. So, the full three sections would be 1920 acres and the other three sections would total 960 acres or 320 acres along the Montana state border.
The smaller sections: sections 15, 22, and 27.
Two permits renewed:
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
Locator: 46627BAILEY.
See NDIC hearing dockets for March, 2024.
The maps:
The active wells of interest:
| BAKKEN | 1-2018 | 31 | 12969 | 12930 | 12703 | 10390 | 8374 | 445 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2017 | 31 | 16372 | 16507 | 17673 | 11349 | 6122 | 3297 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2017 | 30 | 18896 | 18655 | 27920 | 12247 | 3430 | 6626 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2017 | 15 | 10609 | 10470 | 7118 | 6568 | 537 | 4812 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2017 | 25 | 449 | 445 | 122 | 381 | 162 | 28 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2017 | 30 | 559 | 882 | 79 | 478 | 197 | 45 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2017 | 30 | 560 | 290 | 199 | 487 | 175 | 87 |
Locator: 46626B.
PCE: turned out to be a non-story.
I can't sort out all the numbers (nor could the talking heads on CNBC (it seemed) but the stock market certainly liked the numbers. Which was surprising.
Later: good. Sara Eisen is now talking about it. And if anyone can explain it, it will be Sara Eisen.
"We're back in the 2% range but JPow won't see it that way."
So, if JPow won't see it as necessarily good news, why is the market "up" today?
Because ... because ... because ... although the numbers did not change, the trend suggests that JPow won't raise rates this year. That's huge -- the conversation has changed. From "six cuts projected for 2024" to "higher for longer" to "OMG! JPow is ready to raise rates" we're now reassured that "there will be no raises in the Fed rate this year."
That's huge for the market. The market "fears" the unknown; the market can deal with bad news as long as we kind of know where we're headed.
Sara Eisen: wow, she's good. That extra two hours of sleep or extra two hours of preparation is a big, big help. And coming on after Jim Cramer in the morning is an even bigger bonus. And co-hosting with David Faber and Carl Q is huge. Faber, Eisen, Q all seem well-balanced. Not always as reassuring as Louis Rukeyser was, but he had a week to prepare; Sara is doing it on the fly, in real time, day in and day out.
US government shutdown: adults met in Biden's office and came to their senses. Again. But they will have to do it again next week.
SNOW: oh-oh.
WW: a big oh-oh! As in OH-prah!
Semaglutide: backstory. How did all those folks reading 10-Ks in their office all day miss this one. The phase II clinical trial began back in 2008 -- at same time as the Bakken was taking off sixteen years ago, and everyone missed it? Kinda reminds me of Nvidia. But only kinda.
Tyson: Ozempic is going to drive protein sales.
Duolingo: this has been a breakout surprise for the past week or so.
I have not missed one day of Duolingo Spanish lessons in 1255 days (1255 / 365 = 3.44 years). Sophia is taking Russian lessons -- she got bored with Spanish with me. LOL. Free with ads. I pay $89 / year for ad-free version. Love it. Can't speak it; my German is still better. But I can really, really read it. Best thing, for me, about taking Spanish: I'm no longer "upset" by all the Spanish in my daily life as I drive / bike /walk around DFW. Throughout the day I get positive feedback with regard to all the time I spend on Duolingo. My streak:
EVs: I was wrong on EVs. But not how you think. Will discuss later this week.
Data Centers: huge story.
Cryptomining: huge story. If you can get past paywall, big story in today's Bismarck Tribune. I have the whole story archived. Will come back to this later. I think it's a bigger story than the Bakken. Don't take that out of context.
Chips: Biden's administration goal -- huge.
Medical care and inflation. I was wrong on this also.
Pivot: AppleCar to AppleAI.
Dividends: March (June, September, December) -- the big months for those who like dividends -- and don't we all like dividends.
So much to talk about but it will have to wait. Family commitments. Schwab events -- three events in three days at local office in Southlake, TX.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $78.70.
Friday, March 1, 2024: 88 for the month; 147 for the quarter, 147 for the year
40008, conf, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30H,
40007, conf, Slawson, Thor 3-31-30H,
39482, conf, Oasis, Ledahl 5402 42-33 3B,
38699, conf, CLR, Gibb 8-24HSL,
38639, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-2017H-5
36278, conf, Enerplus, Fossa 149-93-31D-30H-LL
Thursday, February 29, 2024: 82 for the month; 141 for the quarter, 141 for the year
40090, conf, CLR, Gibb 7-24H1,
40005, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 7H,
40004, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 6H,
40003, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 5H,
39490, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 6B,
39489, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 5B,
39488, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 4B,
39487, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 3B,
39486, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 2B,
38700, conf, CLR, Gibb 6-24H,
38640, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-20017H-2,
37671, conf, Enerplus, Kudu 149-94-36D-35H,
36275, conf, Enerplus, Sturgeon 149-94-36D-25H-TF
RBN Energy: the next decade of the natural gas market balance.
Observers of the natural gas market over the past 20 years know that the main story has been one of enormous growth. The Shale Revolution gave new life to the U.S. natural gas sector, leading to the record production levels we are seeing in early 2024. The economy has found many uses for this new gas: increased power generation, more pipeline exports to Mexico, expanded industrial gas usage and — most prominently — the many LNG export facilities that have cropped up since 2016. But with the pause on new LNG export licenses and the push to renewables in the power sector, there’s a looming question of where the new natural gas would go if production continues to expand. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how that new gas might be absorbed, both domestically and internationally, and what continued growth would imply for gas prices and producers in the long term.
Like economist Adam Smith’s butcher, baker and brewer, upstream producers are motivated by profit rather than benevolence. Therefore, future gas volumes vary drastically with different price assumptions. For the purposes of this blog, we are using a crude oil price that averages $70/bbl, which is in the ballpark of the current price curve. RBN projects that from 2024 to 2035, two-thirds of the growth in U.S. Lower-48 natural gas production will come in the form of associated gas from crude and liquids dominant basins like the Permian and Eagle Ford, so natural gas production growth will be more sensitive to the price of crude than for natural gas. (More on this at the link.)