Blogging Update -- For The Archives -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46625ARCHIVES.

For reasons I won't discuss for a week or so, I am exhausted. I've kept up with a lot of blogging but have not completed all the postings. I'm not sure I have the energy to do so tonight. We'll see. 

So, bear with me. We'll see. We'll probably post a few more incomplete posts, some musical videos, post some notes about movies and books and move on.

Late Night Notes -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46624?

SNOW: plummets 20%. Did the 10-K warn investors of this possibility? How was this missed? SNOW might have been on my bucket list; I honestly don’t recall, but if it was, it was on my bucket list for less than a month and I hold no shares in this company and have no plans to start.

White Collar: within that genre, best series ever. Tonight, watching the first of two final episodes for third time in past three months. Clearly as good as the last episode of MASH.

NDIC Hearing Dockets -- March, 2024

Locator: 46623DOCKETS.

March hearing dockets posted.   

Link here.

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source. These are cases, not permits.

Thursday, March 21, 2024,
Fourteen Pages

The cases:

• 30741, Liberty Resources, East Tioga-Bakken and/or Enget Lake-Bakken, to establish four overlapping 2560-acre units, one well on each, Mountrail. 
• 30742, Zavanna, Stony Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; twwo sells; establish an overlapping 3840-ace unit, two wells; Williams.  Sections 10/11/14/15-155-100 and sections 22/23/26/27/34/35-155-100.
• 30743, Zavanna, Brooklyn-Bakken and/or Epping-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units, two wells on each, Williams.
• 30744, PetroShale, Mandaree-Bakken, establish an overlapping 640-acree unit, E/2 of section and W/2 of section 11 -149-93; one wells; Dunn County.
• 30745, Prima Exploration, Smoky Butte-Bakken establish two overlapping 1920-acre units, three wells on each; Divide County.
• 30746, Hunt Oil, Alexandria-Bakken, establish two overlapping 1920-acre units, two wells on each, Divide County;
• 30747, CLR, Crazy Man Creeek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well; sections 19/20/29/300-153-99;Williams County. Affects one of my readers IIRC.
  
• 30748, CLR, Alexander-Bakken, Patent Gate-Bakken, and/or Spring Creek-Bakken; establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well on each; McKenzie.
• 30749, Grayson Mill, Painted Woods-Bakken and/or Rosebud-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; four wells; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Williams County.
• 30750, Resonance Exploration, Landa, South Landa, and/or West Roth-Madison, establish a 480-acre unit; to drill a multi-lateral horizontal well; Bottineau County.
• 30751, Empire North Dakota, Starbuck-Madison, to create zones of 640-acre and 12800-acre spacing units for horizontal wells, Bottineau County.
• 30752, XTO, injection.
• 30753, XTO, injection.
• 30754, XTO, injection.
• 30755, XTO, injection.
• 30756, Phoenix Operating, Skabo-Bakken and/or Burg-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre, one well; Divide County.
• 30757, Phoenix Operating, Skabo-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Divide.
• 30758, KODA Resources, pooling;
• 30759, KODA Resources, pooling;
• 30760, KODA Resources, pooling;
• 30761, Liberty Resources, pooling;
• 30762, Liberty Resources, pooling;
• 30763, Liberty Resources, pooling;
• 30764, Liberty Resources, pooling;
• 30765, Liberty Resources, pooling;
• 30766, EOG, pooling;
• 30767, Rockport, pooling;
• 30768, Rockport, pooling;
• 30769, Rockport, pooling;
• 30770, Hunt, commingling; 
• 30771, Hunt, commingling; 
• 30772, Hunt, commingling; 
• 30773, Hunt, SWD;
• 30774, Phoenix, risk penalty legalese;
• 30775, CLR, pooling; 
• 30776, CLR, pooling; 
• 30777, CLR, pooling; 
• 30778, Grayson Mill, pooling; 
• 30779, Grayson Mill, pooling; 
• 30780, Grayson Mill, pooling; 
• 30781, Grayson Mill, ten wells on an existing 1280-existing unit, South Tobacco Garden-Bakken, McKenzie. Sections 15/22-150-99. Affects one of my readers IIRC.
• 30782, Zavanna, Long Creek-Bakken, two wells on an existing ovelapping 2560-acre unit, Williams County; 
• 30783, Zavanna, Epping-Bakken, ten wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Williams.
• 30784, XTO, commingling;
• 30785, XTO, commingling;
• 30786, XTO, commingling;
• 30787, XTO, commingling;
• 30788, Open A Partners, SWD;
• 30789, Deep Creek Adventures, SWD;
  

Wednesday, March 20, 2024 
Nine Pages

The cases: 

• 30718, NDIC, McGregory Buttes-Bakken; establish spacing.
• 30719, Hess, Manitou-Bakken, establish, overlapping standup 1280-acre spacing, two wells on each; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Mountrail County;
• 30720, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, establish an overlapping laydown 1920-acre unit, five wells; establish an overlapping laydown 3840-acre unit; one well; Williams County;
• 30721, Oasis, Tioga, Beaver Lodge, and.or West Bank-Bakken establish an overlapping laydown 2560-acre unit; one well; Williams.
• 30722, Petro-Hunt, Powers Lake, East Tioga, and.or Tioga-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well, Mountrail County;
• 30723, NDIC, termination of the Eland East-Lodgepole unit, Stark County.
• 30724, Hess, pooling;
• 30725, Hess, pooling;
• 30726, Hess, pooling;
• 30727, Hess, pooling;
• 30728, Hess, commingling, 
• 30729, Hess, commingling, 
• 30739, Hess, commingling, 
• 30731, Hess, commingling, 
• 30732, Hess, commingling, 
• 30733, Oasis, pooling; 
• 30734, Oasis, commingling
• 30735, BR, commingling,
• 30736, BR, commingling,
• 30737, True, pooling
• 30738, MRO, pooling;
• 30739, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, nine wells  on a standup 1280-acre unit; Dunn County;
• 30740, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, eight wells on a standup 1280-acre unit; Dunn County;
  

Five New Permits -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46934SPARE.

NDIC hearing dockets posted today.

Active rigs: 39.

WTI: $78.13.

Five new permits, #40551 - #40555, inclusive:

• Operators: Grayson Mill (2), Slawson, CLR, Enerplus
• Fields: Cow Creek (Williams); Big Bend (Mouuntrail); East Fork (Williams); and, Little Knife (Dunn)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for two Tufto wells, NENW 18-155-100, 
• one to be sited 386 FNL and 1871 FWL and the other 386 FNL and 2021 FWL;
• Slawson has a permit for a Fisherman well, NWNW 21-152-91,
• to be sited 1001 FNL and 460 FWL; 
• CLR has a permit for a Sandhill well, SESW 13-156-99, 
• to be sited 315 FSL and 2135 FWL;
• Enerplus has a permit for a Danielle well, SWSE 12-145-97, 
• to be sited 292 FSL and 2272 FEL;
  

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 40051, 709, CLR, Harms East Federal 6-33H2,

He's A Private Citizen -- Just Like The Rest Of Us -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46934SPARE.

Link here. For the archives.

Anglo-Saxon history of Britain: I continue to update notes on this history. The map of Britain in 600 AD is most remarkable.

More money than God, link here. For the archives. Former president Trump could bank $7 billion on his meme-SPAC stock.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46933GASOLINEDEMAND.

Link here.

• US crude oil: increased by 4.2 million bbls; 447.2 million bbls; one-percent below the average;
• imports: 2.3% more than last year
• refiners: 81.5%; last week it had a 80-handle, so somewhat better, but probably not significantly different
• distillate fuel decreased a bit; inventories are 8% below the average and spring planting season underway
• jet fuel supplied was up 2.9% from same period last year.

US gasoline demand: 

Essay On EVs, Part 4 -- A Snowball Rolling Downhill -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46932EVS.

Part 4 of continuing series on EVs. Part 3 here. 

This week has been simply amazing -- how fast everything changed. Literally "every" auto manufacturer has delayed plans -- some perhaps permanently, like Apple, Inc.,  -- to develop EVs. Those who say they are still committed to EVs have indicated they will either slow development / production or "pause" for an unspecified amount of time, but probably best measured in years. But, if imagine, with the amount of cash Apple had on hand, and the technology lead they had, and they can't make EVs work financially, what hope is there for everyone else? [By the way, I just heard that firsthand earlier today from an executive with a self-driving truck company here in the DFW area. Her exact quote: "if Apple can't make it work, what hope is there for us?"]

A guest essay in yesterday's on-line edition of The New York Times addressed this issue.

At first I thought it was a news story but by the third paragraph I realized it was an op-ed.

The writer was so far off base I quit reading after the fifth or sixth paragraph and, instead, read the comments. EVs? It's become a religion or a cult. The science no longer matters. It doesn't even matter if environmentally EVs are worse than ICE vehicles. None of that matters. It's not even political any more. Most will disagree me on that, but that's fine. They will say its political; it's not. It's a religious argument. Neither political party has a monopoly on "stupid."

The good news: Ford has a secret team working on an inexpensive car. Apple had a secret team working on its EV also.

Cash on hand:

Back to the op-ed:

The fact that Robinson Meyer put that in his op-ed tells me all I need to know about Robinson Meyer. He has no clue about free market capitalism. He knows nothing about margins.

An inexpensive car won't make money for the auto manufacturer. Even Apple said it quit its EV plans when they realized the margins weren't there even on a $100K car. An inexpensive car simply means Ford will lose less money on each EV it sells.

The best niche for EVs of the future. Buc-ee's Land Cruisers, Inc. Buc-ee's will transport cars to  vacation destinations, let's say south Florida or southern California and folks will drive their EVs in and around those vacation destination. Buc-ee's will have a 40-acre charging lot next to their Buc-ee's Hotel/Motel and Emporium.

Just Northwest Of DFW -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46931BUCEES.

Enerplus "Wild Kingdom" Update -- Initial Production -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46930ENERPLUS.

The "wild kingdom" is tracked here.

The wells:

• 37671, conf, Enerplus, Kudu 149-94-36D-25H, Phaelens Butte,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2023	18327	20459
11-2023	22802	23734
10-2023	14966	15160
9-2023	31492	28575
8-2023	65	88

• 36274, PNC/EXP-->loc-->187, Enerplus, Salmon, Phaelens Butte, t8/29/23; 31 stages; 119,032 bbls;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2023	31	24457	24476	22400	33894	33772	122
BAKKEN	11-2023	1	1404	1404	1580	2200	2185	15
BAKKEN	10-2023	16	14883	14855	14148	15849	15823	26
BAKKEN	9-2023	27	26931	26905	49431	28638	27707	931
BAKKEN	8-2023	1	0	0	533	217	215	2

• 36275, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Sturgeon, Phaelens Butte,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2023	33061	30995
11-2023	30195	29698
10-2023	28535	28463
9-2023	37638	33864
8-2023	96	86

• 36276, drl/NC-->loc, Enerplus, Lemur, McGregory Buttes,

• 36277, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Gazelle, McGregory Buttes, 

• 36278, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Fossa, Mandaree, FracFocus does not have data yet (February 28, 2024)
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2023	5935	5065
11-2023	24672	24786
10-2023	42541	42508
9-2023	35089	35856

• 36279, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Aardwolf, McGregory Buttes,

• 36280, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Meerkat, Mandaree,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2023	28871	24457
11-2023	20445	16301
10-2023	18563	13582
9-2023	12339	13570

• 36281, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Elephant, McGregory Buttes,

• 36282, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Warthog, Mandaree,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2023	21530	26517
11-2023	19128	19258
10-2023	16903	19780
9-2023	13632	10329

• 36283, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Zebra, McGregory Buttes,

A Pleasant Surprise -- WTI Trending Toward $80 -- Vicky Hollub (OXY) Says $40 Is What They Need To "Protect" Dividend -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46929B.

Politics: NYC mayor now calls for an end to "sanctuary city" status. That's too bad. If you're a newly arrived undocumented tourist bent on crime to pay for living expenses, would you prefer to stay in Texas where you know you will end up in jail, or elect to take a state-paid-for bus trip or plane trip to a sanctuary city that offers you free room and board -- particularly if you can come up with a "family"? If one can't connect the dots, perhaps this will help: "human trafficking."

Politics: Mitch McConnell to step down in November, 2024. 

Media: Google's Gemini blunder shows how seriously bad this can go. Even ChatGPT is incredibly susceptible to manipulation.

Random look at dividends for three oil-related companies of interest:

• ENB:
• $0.6796
• since 1988, only one time has ENB's dividend been higher ($0.6896, May, 2021)
• EPD:
• $0.515
• have to go all the way back to 2014 when it was higher, but I wonder if there wasn't a stock split at the time
• yup, a stock split, August, 2014
• so, EPD's dividend is at an all-time high
• SRE:
• after recent stock split, raised from $0.595 to $0.62, ex/eff date 3/20/24
• I believe this is also an all-time high

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.22.

Thursday, February 29, 2024: 82 for the month; 141 for the quarter, 141 for the year
40090, conf, CLR, Gibb 7-24H1,
40005, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 7H,
40004, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 6H,
40003, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 5H,
39490, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 6B, Oasis wells are tracked here;
39489, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 5B, Oasis wells are tracked here;
39488, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 4B, Oasis wells are tracked here;
39487, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 3B, Oasis wells are tracked here;
39486, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 2B, Oasis wells are tracked here;
38700, conf, CLR, Gibb 6-24H,
38640, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-20017H-2,
37671, conf, Enerplus, Kudu 149-94-36D-35H, Phaelens Butte, tracked here;
36275, conf, Enerplus, Sturgeon 149-94-36D-25H-TF, Phaelens Butte, tracked here;

Wednesday, February 28, 2024: 69 for the month; 128 for the quarter, 128 for the year
40027, conf, Dakota Gasification, Coteau 6,
40009, conf, Slawson, Thor 5-31-30H,
39940, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-4BH,
39939, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-3BH,
37488, conf, CLR, Gibb 5-24H,
36274, conf, Enerplus, Salmon 149-94-36D-25H-TF,

RBN Energy: Louisiana court ruling gives Formosa Petchem's Sunshine Project a ray of hope.

It’s been nine years since Formosa Petrochemical filed its first permit applications for a proposed $9.4 billion petrochemical complex in Louisiana and, while the greenfield project has faced legal setbacks, it recently posted an important win and may — emphasis on may — eventually make it across the finish line. The Sunshine Project would be massive and consequential, with two steam crackers each capable of consuming 75 Mb/d of ethane, a big propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit and a number of other petchem production facilities that together would employ more than 1,200. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the project and its long and winding road toward potential construction and startup.