Locator: 46919EVS.
This only perpetuates the perception that EVs are a play thing for the well-off, that they are luxury vehicles for the rich subsidized by losers (as defined by Trump). And, of course, the richest man in the world only drives Teslas. LOL.
I have little enthusiasm for such headlines.
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Furball
Get ready for the furball of the century pitting CVX against XOM and / or CNOOC for Hess’ stake in Guyana’s giant oil field.
Locator: 46918MOON.
Since the first US manned lunar landing in 1969, not one US manned lander landed on its side.
2024 - 1969: 55 years. The first American lunar (unmanned) lander, in 55 years, landed on its site and will transmit data for less than 72 (?) hours.
We've come a long way in 55 years.
What was Joe Biden doing in 1969?
Now, Biden's most recent "achievement"? Putting LNG export facilities on "pause" because someone convinced him coal is cleaner than the natural gas these end users would have burned instead. I can't make this stuff up. Meanwhile, Qatar is using the opportunity to overtake the US again in LNG export. And reliability.
Back to "Putting LNG export facilities on "pause" because someone convinced him coal is cleaner than the natural gas these end users would have burned instead." Exhibit A:
Locator: 46917B.
DFW: record temp today, 94°. Normal high is 63° for February 26. Previous record high 90°. Record high forecast again for tomorrow.
Medical school, link here. I wonder if folks see the most interesting "thing" about this announcement:
Let's do the math.
- assume tuition = $100,000 / year
- 400 students across all four classes: $100,000 / yr / student x 400 students = $40 million / year
- $1 billion x 0.04 = $40 million / year
But that's not the most interesting data point. There's yet another interesting data point. Remember, a one-time donation of $1 billion will cover "free tuition in perpetuity for all medical students" at this medical school.
And if folks don't see the most interesting data point, it speaks volumes about "money knowledge" of Americans.
CVX - Hess: the deal is not dead and there's much, much more to be sorted out and potentially re-negotiated, but the leaves in my St Patrick tea cup suggest this deal is dead. This will be a huge story tomorrow with stories everywhere and links not necessary. For some investors, this is not necessarily a bad-news story. One word: furball.
Shutdown: I thought we were past this but apparently not. "Biden calls leaders to White House as shutdown looms." -- Barron's. Deadline: Friday, March 1, 2024. To paraphrase Ronald Reagan, "here we go again."
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $77.62.
Active rigs: 38.
Two new permits, #40543 and #40544:
The Wayzetta wells are tracked here, but have not been updated in a long time.
Existing, producing well in that section:
One of the two new permits, the other one will be on the same pad and same drilling unit:
Locator: 46916CANCER.
This might be the best link from Radiology, published February 9, 2021. Very, very concerning.
The data years: The authors conducted a retrospective analysis of (a) female breast cancer mortality rates from NCHS data for 1969–2017 for all...
Results:
The chart at the top of the page at this link has an anomalous data point, undated (?) but most recent data is through calendar year 2020 which suggests same data base as the Radiology link above.
If I'm reading the chart correctly:
An observation: for all the billions spent on research, the observed death rate in the past ten years, 2009 - 2019, not encouraging. Yes, the drop from 22.2 to 19.4 looks great statistically but to the individual patient, no change in observed death rate in the past ten years
Comment: like everything else in human endeavor, I assume there's a lot of "group think" in research labs around the world. One wonders if some out-of-the-box thinking might be indicated. And perhaps there has been; I certainly don't know. I don't follow breast cancer except for occasionally looking at the statistics. But these statistics are depressing. Maybe I'm being too negative.
Comment: we won't know until 2024 or 2025 but the statistics will be very, very interesting for the calendar years 2020 and 2021 when Covid interrupted outpatient visits when early diagnosis might have been made and for many cancer therapy might have been interrupted. Again, the best study, the Radiology study covered breast cancer data from 1969 to 2017, well before 2021 - 2023.
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Prostate Cancer
Again, typographical errors and content errors likely. If this is important to you, go to the source.
Locator: 46915MARKET.
WTI: $77.76. Up. $1.27; up 1.66%.
Unity Software (U): sometimes one just gets lucky. There were a lot of folks recommending U this past year, and I almost put a sizeable amount in this company as an investment. But I only had "room" for five or six tech companies and U did not make the cut. Wow, U is a mess. It recently announced a 25% cut in its workforce, almost unheard of in the tech sector. And it appears no one knows what is going on.
For those who still think Nvidia is a bubble:
And Micron:
Financials hit two-year high.
Tech and EVs:
Locator: 46914ARCHIVES.
Electricity bill: this is our sole energy cost (other than gasoline for the cars) for our carbon dioxide emission footprint -- we have only electricity, no natural gas or anything else. Our electricity is almost 100% wind, solar according to the utility.
Our stated rate: 580 kWh @ $0.155499/kWh. The additional charge, 2.0% sales tax and a strange tax I don't understand, $1.84 and $1.80, respectively.
$3 / day -- about the cost of a visit to a local Starbucks, something I haven't done in months, probably coming up on six months now?
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Personal Note
I recently received a note via "Messenger" from an old Bitburg, Germany, friend who said she had not heard from me "any more."
My reply:
In addition, I have no less than 20 blogs, again, most inaccessible to any other individual. All password protected, and likewise, the password and URLs will be left with Sophia and my executor(s) when I die.
But I'm thinking of a weekly post on the "The Million Dollar Way" blog -- my primary blog -- that would be entirely personal -- as a method of letting old friends and acquaintances keep up with what I'm doing. It's a selfish indulgence and something I prefer not to do, but maybe. We'll see. Another blog is not an option.
On another note, my workhorse is an old Intel-based MacBook Air, a 2018 model bought in 2018. It's an incredible laptop but some of the keyboard keys are getting a bit sticky. Slows me down.
I've had a backup 2000 M1 MacBook Air bought in 2000 but seldom used -- I've been keeping it as a backup and keeping it in pristine condition. If my old Intel-based MacBook Air has 10,950 hours on it, the M1 has less than a hundred hours. I'm using it now, out by the pool. It's going to get up to 93°F later this afternoon. It's doesn't feel that hot today; I've become way too acclimated to hot temperatures.
All of that to say this: the macOS is Sonoma 14.1.2, 8GB. It is absolutely incredible. It will last another ten years, I assume, but am eagerly waiting for the M3 MacBook Air likely to be released this summer. Yeah, I'll get the entry model if it's released. No reason, except for the experience of the M3.
I can no longer recommend AAPL as an investment but wow, I have nothing but great things to say about Apple's products, services, operating niche. On the deck with me today, the laptop, an iPad, and an iPhone, all working seamlessly. Earphones?
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The New Yorker Editor Must Have Stopped By
Last Month
Our living room.
This week's cartoon contest.
Locator: 46913NASCAR.
Be sure to watch the video.
Locator: 46912TECH.
Wow, that was fast. Here in the US, we would still be "doing" the environmental impact statement and deferring to indigenous sovereign nations on whether we can go forward. Some hyperbole but not much.
A reminder:
See this post. This post is simply one of the best analyses done on the Buffett-TSM story. A must-read.
Today:
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Josh's Pick
McDonald's.
It's in my "bucket list." Pays 2.24%.
The technicals are incredible. May have to come back to this later.
One thing he didn't mention: Uber. People have no problem paying a premium for home delivery.
This should get everyone's attention:
Locator: 46911PH.
Back on November 15, 2024, I posted a nice story regarding measles. I learned a lot posting that note.
Measles the most infectious pathogenic human virus -- and except for chickenpox, nothing else is even close.
The post:
The basic reproduction number, R nought (R0), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation.
R0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunisation coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease.
As R0 increases, higher immunisation coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections.
For measles, R0 is often cited to be 12–18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12–18 other people in a totally susceptible population ... We calculated median measles R0 values stratified by key covariates. We found that R0 estimates vary more than the often cited range of 12–18.
R0, various sources, generally accepted:
Apparently the Florida SG didn't get the memo. He will let parents decide. Public Health no longer matters.
In the big scheme of things, measles is so much worse than Covid, so much worse, on so many levels.
My hunch: the "spare" previously known as Prince Harry has his kids vaccinated. But then, maybe not.
Florida SG: nominee for the 2024 Geico Rock Award.
Locator: 46910EVS.
Before we get started, over the weekend, I made one huge prediction to a reader in a sidebar (see comments on the blog): cars are going to get a lot less expensive this summer. Just one prediction all weekend, LOL, and that was it.
This morning, his headline: Jeep lowers prices for more sales. Link here.
EVs: a snowball rolling down hill.
My theme: even the rich don't like EVs, and that's really, really bad news for those trying to sell them
Today's headlines:
BYD: announces a new $233,450 EV Supercar to rival Ferrari, Lamborghini
WSJ: why Rivian, Lucid, Polestar will struggle; knights on white horses; scorecard here.
Ford Lightning F-150: previously reported; the Verge; Ford is still holding back on full story;
Walmart: splits today, 3 - 1. First since 1999. My hunch: this may start a trend.
Tech: AVGO, QCOM surprisingly high today.
Picking winners and losers, good news for Walmart and Target: Biden's FTC sues to block Kroger's takeover of Albertson's. Everybody knows.
Mortgages: home sales rebounded in January after last yearr's sharp decline. JPow noted, no doubt.
EVs: a snowball rolling down hilll
NATO: Sweden's in. Next: Ukraine.
Iran: has reduced its stockpile of near-weapons-grade nuclear material over the past 3.5 months, defying expectations. Received no headlines in the news.
PCE: link here. Even if accurate, won't matter. Won't change JPow's mind.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $76.79.
Tuesday, February 27, 2024: 63 for the month; 122 for the quarter, 122 for the year
37487, conf, CLR, Gibb 4-24H1,
Monday, February 26, 2024: 62 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 121 for the year
39616, conf, Whiting, DE YK 12-33-2TFH,
37486, conf, CLR, Gibb 3-24H,
Sunday, February 25, 2024: 60 for the month; 119 for the quarter, 119 for the year
38641, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-2017H-3,
37485, conf, CLR, Gibb 2-24H1,
RBN Energy: the US NGL production, fractionation, and export juggernaut rolls on. Archived here.
Way back in 2018-19, U.S. NGL production was rising fast, new ethane-only steam crackers were coming online along the Gulf Coast, and new fractionation capacity wasn’t being added quickly enough — the capacity shortfall sent the NGL market into near-panic. Fast forward to now: NGL production is still rising but domestic demand is flat, resulting in an NGL-exports surge and a race to develop new export capacity. And fractionation capacity in Mont Belvieu and elsewhere? The market learned its lesson five years ago and, to avert another capacity crunch, midstream companies have been adding new fractionators at an almost frenetic pace. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the ongoing fractionation-capacity buildout — and the need to quickly expand NGL export terminals.
Having sufficient infrastructure in place is, of course, a critical need in each and every U.S. hydrocarbon market. There’s no way around it — you need the processing plants, the pipelines, the storage, and (especially in the Shale Era) the export docks to deal with the massive volumes of crude oil, natural gas and NGLs being produced. And don’t forget to build in a cushion, not just to deal with the daily and weekly ups and downs in supply and demand, but also to anticipate production growth.
Locator: 46908INV.
NVDA up in pre-market.
TSM also up a bit.
Later: BRK pulls back but still up nicely.
