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Monday, February 19, 2024

Will We Hit $80 This Week? If So, It Might Get Joe Biden's Attention; This Isn't Even March -- February 19, 2024

Locator: 46851B.

Might WTI hit $80 this week? We're less than a buck from $80 this evening, trading at $79.58.

Focus on fracking: link here. This week's lede:

  • oil prices are at a 3 month high; 
  • natural gas prices settled at new 3​½ year lows four days this week; 
  • US refinery utilization rate, refinery throughput, and distillates production all are lowest in 58 weeks, on ongoing Gulf Coast shut-ins; 
  • January’s global oil production was 1,520,000 barrels per day below estimated demand.

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Must-Have For Spiderman Fans

This Will Be Fun To Watch -- Pending -- February 19, 2024

Locator: 46850B.

The map:

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Lego's Best Bang For The Buck: Speed Champions
Right Price Point

So What Do You Think? February 19, 2024

Locator: 46849B. 

So, what do you think? We'll check back -- in six months. 

Hints: MRO, Bailey oil field, tags.

The well:

  • 16704, 398, MRO, Darcy 34-32H, Bailey, t12/07; cum 486K 12/23 (a year ago); recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-20230000000
BAKKEN10-20230000000
BAKKEN9-20230000000
BAKKEN8-20230000000
BAKKEN7-20230000000
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230050000
BAKKEN2-202300170000
BAKKEN1-20233372301820105
BAKKEN12-2022317958782632501340
BAKKEN11-202230855765482914403265
BAKKEN10-202228716508525102878830
BAKKEN9-202200290000
BAKKEN8-20223472113254340
BAKKEN7-2022315255293925874283

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The Map

They're Asking The Wrong Question -- February 19, 2024

Locator: 46848INV.

They're asking the wrong question.

Link here.

If I read any of the article (and I don't think I did), I don't recall what it had to say. But a couple of observations.

What they're probably not saying is that the magnificent seven (replacing Tesla with Super Micro or AMD or ... ) is only the starting line-up. The bench is probably just as strong, and whether it is or not, it's stronger than almost every other country, also -- the second string being Intel, AMD, ARM, CVX, XOM, WMT, MCD, CAT, to name a few.

By the way, on top of that, the Biden administration is throwing billions of dollars Intel's way and Global Foundries' way. What a great country. The president picking winners and losers. My bad. That's one word: GlobalFoundries.

Second, no other country has the entrepreneurial spirit like the US and the best free market capitalism history.

And energy? The US is second to no one. Okay, maybe uranium but that was a Clinton decision. 

And it goes on and on. 

So, if you are worried about the magnificent seven, there's a pretty strong second bench from which to choose. And, of course, there's always BRK.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market

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What Do Others Say?

Link here.

Fracking -- WSJ Bios — February 19, 2024

Locator: 46847FRACKING. 

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WSJ Bios

The more WSJ  bios I read, the less I'm impressed. It started when I read Nicole Nguyen's bio after her reporting on Amazon some weeks ago.

Now, this one: 

The writing may be excellent but absolutely unhelpful with regard to investing.

Flashback, from August, 2022: America's newest energy crisis:

In the big scheme of things, August, 2022, is just a bit more than a year ago. 

This article was an absolute "disaster." A year after this article was written, the picture has changed completely.

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Fracking -- And Now Re-Fracking

Currently, new permits in North Dakota have just crossed the "40530" chronologic number. The newest permit is #40531, an Enerplus Deuce permit. Every well with a permit number below 25000 will have to be re-fracked. Bakken wells began around 16500.  Around 10,000 wells will need to be re-fracked? How may Baken wells are  being drilled each year right now? About a thousand?

Re-posting.

Link here.






From the blog:

Also, see tags.

Re-posting, as an example, from the MRO Bailey oil field inventory: 

MRO may, again, get recognized as the best / most interesting "medium-size" operator in the Bakken for 2019.

See this link, #18842, Tescher 11-27H.

CLR has its Brooklyn oil field; MRO has its Bailey. Two typical MRO Bailey re-frack wells:

The well:

  • 18842, 135, MRO, Tescher 11-27H, Bailey, section 27-146-93, 33-025-01071, t8/10; cum 469K 4/20; re-fracked, 8/11/2017  - 8/25/2017; 5.9 million gallons of water, small-to-moderate frack; a neighboring well, #16753, was fracked at the same time; an even small frack, 4.1 million gallons of water, and another great result; these are the only two wells in this 1280-acre drilling unit; cum 624K 12/23;

 Re-frack production:

BAKKEN5-201831168381683294701065275581839
BAKKEN4-2018241523515196132101004126935591
BAKKEN3-201825154771552118044107688433538
BAKKEN2-2018261735617282186111169263843322
BAKKEN1-2018292382023889304121704113573759
BAKKEN12-2017222085220816246121432182823699
BAKKEN11-2017251654716593187781193389811047
BAKKEN10-20173128177281083475519296136322465
BAKKEN9-20171616166162031421165011288706
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-2017211494937250
BAKKEN5-20173186983919474643336
BAKKEN4-20173083984520174843842
BAKKEN3-20172979777128469237179
BAKKEN2-20172876778917268239339

The well:

  • 16753, 314, MRO, Repp 34-34H, Bailey, t1/08; cum 485K 12/23; re-frack production:
BAKKEN9-20172815352153561938779311545990
BAKKEN8-201728122961217313984638929492011
BAKKEN7-201723107661074412528586121082490
BAKKEN6-20171814004139251008470368194617
BAKKEN5-201712709214011
BAKKEN4-20172645139712438559127
BAKKEN3-20173156659715946017541
BAKKEN2-2017285216111444362075
BAKKEN1-2017315825481584982455
BAKKEN12-2016315395421584632145
BAKKEN11-20163060958215445319315
BAKKEN10-2016316005871584642131

North Dakota Truck Stop At The US Supreme Court — February 19, 2024

Locator: 46846LAW.

From Bloomberg:

AN UNDER-THE-RADAR case slated for argument before the US Supreme Court on Tuesday could leave federal regulations vulnerable to legal challenges long after they are codified, Lydia Wheeler reports. 
  • When Does the Clock Start? The central issue is a timing question related to the six-year statute of limitations for challenging regulations under the Administrative Procedure Act: Does the clock start when the rule is adopted or when it first causes legal harm? 
  • Corner Post, a North Dakota truck stop, is one of the parties challenging the Federal Reserve’s 2011 debit card swipe fee regulation—but it didn’t start out that way when the case began in 2021. 
  • Trade groups challenging the regulation added the truck stop as a party after the federal government said the groups’ suit was barred by the statute of limitations and had to be dismissed. Corner Post’s legal team argues that because the business didn’t open until 2018, it would have no way of suing to address an alleged injury if the statute of limitations window starts when a final rule is issued. 
  • ‘Sleeper Case': While Corner Post isn’t as high profile as two already-argued challenges to the Chevron doctrine on agency interpretations of ambiguous laws, it may end up being just as consequential because a ruling in one could broaden the effect of the other. “This is a sleeper case that could really destabilize the regulatory regimes of all the regulatory agencies if the plaintiff wins,” said Daniel Jarcho, a partner in Alston & Bird’s litigation and trial practice group and a former Justice Department trial attorney 

This should be an easy case if the US Supreme Court follows case law as applied to medical malpractice suits. In those cases, the clock does not start ticking when the injury occurs but when the claimant discovers the injury. The discovery can occur decades after the injury was incurred. Otherwise it’s a two-year statute of limitations.

Capital One To Buy Discover? February 19, 2024

Locator: 46845INV.

Capital One: “favored” by Buffett.

Buffett has a “secret deal” pending according to the SEC.

Slawson's Most Recent Golden Eye Federal Starting To Report -- February 19, 2024

Locator: 46843B.

The well:

  • 39453, drl/A, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 3-2H, Sanish,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2023291191312506778414496123262023
BAKKEN11-202341250023391504623881

 Two wells with subtle halo effect?

  • 18252, 981, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 2-2H, Sanish, AL, t11/09; cum 536K 12/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202328134515111298110787591
BAKKEN11-202394360728402231127
BAKKEN10-20230000000
BAKKEN9-20230000000
BAKKEN8-20230000000
BAKKEN7-20230000000
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-2023153269413774864047
BAKKEN1-20232897575149298777275

  • 17175, 981, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 1-2H, Sanish, F, t10/08; cum 495K 12/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20233112651254698137512137
BAKKEN11-202330116310001592101084317
BAKKEN10-202320944100066485071832
BAKKEN9-202330174819779871466129818
BAKKEN8-202320842486118564952027
BAKKEN7-20237206249832722370
BAKKEN6-2023308087395311559987
BAKKEN5-20233188110268411499960
BAKKEN4-20233087178613910889380

Managing an asset:

  • 26103, 547, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 2-2-1MLH, Sanish, F, t10/08; cum 337K 12/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2023316971002236462837499
BAKKEN11-2023307894982649662407105
BAKKEN10-2023319719873262818519144
BAKKEN9-20232582310183037663362177
BAKKEN8-20231810032049000
BAKKEN7-20239978987952160615590
BAKKEN6-202330307734653227428441340
BAKKEN5-202327269620122541298528480
BAKKEN4-202320206425891870293928401
BAKKEN3-2023313335328731844331410472
BAKKEN2-202328298628112778364635060
BAKKEN1-2023313301331534353875362793
BAKKEN12-20222829422845328725742265169
BAKKEN11-2022272656257236612324213059
BAKKEN10-2022312530229141952125193931
BAKKEN9-20223028392790400321841708326
BAKKEN8-202285444711321461258163
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20222826503551240626782426112
BAKKEN5-20222218351322248517871570107
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-2022302175202520022610242337
BAKKEN2-2022262210227819042401226011
BAKKEN1-20223127162805233630172589273
BAKKEN12-2021312647259923163039282658
BAKKEN11-202130268533362255290427540
BAKKEN10-20213127752464244128272553119
BAKKEN9-20212824912252234523051963201
BAKKEN8-2021312687266425042528232251
BAKKEN7-20212922271936324318691573151
BAKKEN6-2021843048653135930118
BAKKEN5-2021311749201220211407117478
BAKKEN4-20213018771934192314611209102

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 19, 2024

Locator: 46842B. 

The wells:

  • 40027, conf, Dakota Gasification, Coteau 6, Beulah Carbon Dioxide,
  • 40009, conf, Slawson, Thor 5-31-30H, Tobacco Garden, npd,
  • 39940, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-4BH, Fertile Valley, npd,
  • 39939, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-3BH, Fertile Valley, npd,
  • 37488, conf, CLR, Gibb 5-24H, Beaver Lodge, npd,
  • 36274, conf, Enerpllus, Salmon 149-94-36D-25H-TF, Phaelens Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20232447633772
11-202314042185
10-20231485515823
9-20232690527707
8-20230215
  • 37487, conf, CLR, Gibb 4-24H1, Beaver Lodge, npd,
  • 39616, conf, Whiting, DE YK 12-33-2TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20231923121849
11-20232095921206
10-20231812521914
9-20232351128837
  • 37486, conf, CLR, Gibb 3-24H, Beaver Lodge, npd,
  • 38641, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-2017H-3, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20231522524767
11-20231816129989
10-20231669032713
9-20233567957129
8-20231174411498
  • 37485, conf, CLR, Gibb 2-24H1, Beaver Lodge, npd,
  • 39617, conf, Whiting, DE YK 12-33-2H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20231816121205
11-20231665117970
10-2023899310486
9-20231390319525
  • 39340, conf, Enerplus, Cushion 148-93-04A-09H-LL, South Fork,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20232006617558
11-20231985616887
10-20231269810594
9-202363274825
8-202314211207
  • 37343, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot LS 23-22 8H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2023820116100
11-20231153017890
10-20231767714610
9-20231926613267
8-202338283827
  • 39995, conf, CLR, Ransom 12-30H, Elidah, npd,
  • 39847, conf, EOG, Parshall 173-0312H, Parshall,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20232028110942
11-20232090910125
10-20232155410063
9-2023138507291
8-2023125036741
  • 39846, conf, EOG, Parshall 172-0312H, Parshall,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2023152778240
11-2023161637769
10-20232569011905
9-20233047915487
8-2023153467644
  • 38642, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-2017H-4, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20231237719857
11-20231243822094
10-20231291921938
9-20232982960034
8-20231346230128
  • 39534, conf, Hess, EN-Person A-156-94-1522H-2, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20231811525076
11-20231587320825
10-20231828617475
9-20232905546653
8-2023161827165
  • 39994, conf, CLR, Ransom 11-30H2, Elidah, npd,
  • 39993, conf, CLR, Ransom 10-30H, Elidah, npd,
  • 39619, conf, Whiting, DE YK Federal 12-33H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20232379924915
11-20232519225075
10-20232504228825
9-20232607433012
  • 39618, conf, Whiting, DE YK Federal  12-33-2TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20231885221382
11-20231940620775
10-20232112024132
9-20231556819190
  • 39069, conf, Whiting, Safely Federal 32-7-2H, Foreman Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20232224220303
11-2023214169304
10-2023150058969
9-20232430718321
8-202397724819
  • 39068, conf, Whiting, Safely Federal 32-7H, Foreman Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20232026818316
11-20232214010349
10-2023134319198
9-20232366118831
8-202393285401
  • 38303, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot LE 23-11 9H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20232278736450
11-20232572031158
10-20232791926048
9-20232402521975
8-202374156462
  • 37705, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Bighorn 3-6H, Mary, npd,
  • 39992, conf, CLR, Omlid 13-19H, Elidah, npd,