Locator: 46690GRAMMARLY.
Headline not written by a computer; written by a Gen Z journalist.
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Three New Permits; Five Permits Renewed; Three Permits Canceled; Nine Producinng DUCs Reported As Completed; MRO With Spectacular Wells In The Killdeer Area -- January 30, 2024
Locator: 46689B.
Wind: wow, look at these Germany numbers. I must be missing something. Link here.
MPC: I figured this was the reason, but I did not know for sure. Great to see this confirmed. Link here.
Ohio-based oil refiner Marathon Petroleum (MPC) saw its Q4 profits exceed analyst expectations, the company reported on Tuesday—thanks in part to OPEC's production cuts.
The U.S. refiner reported a net income of $3.84 per share—or $1.5 billion—for the last quarter of 2023, while analysts estimated a figure far lower, at just $2.20 per share. This overachievement came even as global refining capacity increased, thanks to production cuts by OPEC+ combined with healthy demand, which helped to offset struggling fuel prices.
Marathon's crude oil capacity utilization came in at 91%, for a total throughput of 2.9 million bpd for Q4, while net income attributable to company settled at $1.45 billion. This compares with $3.32 billion in Q4 2022.
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Back To The Bakken
WTI: $77.82.
Active rigs: 39.
Three new permits, #40487 - #40489, inclusive:
- Operator: Grayson Mill (2); Oasis
- Fields: Westberg (McKenzie); Camp (McKenzie)
- Comments:
- Grayson Mill has permits for twwo WWahuus wells, SESE 12-152-97,
- with one to be sited 318 FSL and 664 FEL andd one sited 308 FSL and 515 FEL;
- Oasis with one permit for a Lee S well,, SWNW 8-152-101,
- to be ssited 20032 FNL and 266 FWL.
Five permits renewed:
- Lime Rock (3): a State, a Kary, and an Emil permit; the first two in Cabernet, Dunn County; and the third, Murphy Creek, also Dunn County:
- Hunt (2): two Patten permits, Parshall; Mountrail County;
Three permits canceled:
- Whiting: two Gullikson permits and one P Bibler permit; the Bibler in Williams County; the Gullikson permits inn McKenzie County
Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 37645, 2,280, BR, Tailgunner 2A TFH, North Fork, no production data,
- 37646, 422, BR, Tailgunner 2B MBH, North Fork, no production data,
- 37649, 0 (no typo), BR, Tailgunner 2E TFH, North Fork, no production data,
- 39443, 2,391, MRO, Bunk 34-33H, Bailey,
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 7 | 9479 | 9438 | 13168 | 8180 | 7289 | 862 |
- 39444, 3,023, MRO, Luptak 34-33H, Bailey,
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 17 | 25821 | 25710 | 38170 | 17688 | 15786 | 1841 |
- 39445, 4,076, MRO, Margery 24-33H, Bailey, no production data,
- 39469, 3,349, MRO, McConnell 11-4H, Killdeer,
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 26 | 45670 | 45474 | 93852 | 34458 | 30732 | 3607 |
- 39628, 2,482, MRO, Amandus 31-17H, Killdeer,
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 25941 | 26011 | 78823 | 16658 | 16289 | 261 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 29 | 35003 | 35088 | 129764 | 20851 | 20409 | 286 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2023 | 4 | 4214 | 3938 | 25731 | 2054 | 1992 | 36 |
- 39630, 3,857, MRO, Mueller 41-17H, Killeer,
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 36673 | 36727 | 69486 | 21662 | 21187 | 336 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 25 | 41358 | 41133 | 81899 | 23020 | 22537 | 313 |
Wells of interest:
- 17883, 402, MRO, Theresa Tuhy 14-33H, Bailey, t5/09; cum 283K 4/23;, recently back on line; too soon to see any halo effect.
- 17316, 561, MRO, L. R. 21-16H, Killdeer, t10/08; cum 546K 7/23; still off line;
The Market Today, Part 2 -- January 30, 2024
Locator: 46688INV.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market
Notable:
- WMB increases dividend to 47.50 cents; 44.75 cents; an increase of 6%. Whoo-hoo! Pays 5%. P/E of 16. Up 9% y/y.
- UPS increases dividend to $1.63. Was $1.62.
WMT: well, this is cool! Link here. Ticker today, $165. The question is whether WMT will increase its dividend; this is the one-year anniversary for the usual dividend increase.
After Close
Major indices:
- Dow: up 133 despite SLB.
- S&P 500: flat; down 3.00 (no typo).
- NASDAQ: down 120 points,
- almost all due to AAPL, down almost $4.00 today, down a whopping 2% today; growing slower than P&G.
- in fact, over six months, shares of PG growing faster than AAPL, but for a full year, AAPL uup 30%; PG up 11%; five years, 300% vs61%.
Microsoft earnings.
- prior to close: $409, flat to down very slightly;
- down a fraction of a percent after release; down aboout 0.75%.
- a beat on the top and bottom line; a beat on the Azure number.
- EPS: $2.93 vs $2.78 EPS
- revenue: $62 vs $61.1 bilion
- 30% growth for Azure vs 27% expected
Starbucks:
- at $94, up half a percent before the close.
- reports misses on top and bottom lines
- shares down 1%; later SBUX turned around to end up green in after-hours trading
- bad numbers across the board
SWKS:
- at $104, down $1.82; down 1.7%;
- earnings beat by 2 cents; $1.97 EPS
- revenue of $1.2 billion; in line
- generates record operating cash flow of $775 million and record cash flow of $753 million
- with numbers like this, why would one buy LCID, RIVN, Polestar, etc -- except for "trading."
- SWKS is a proxy for the iPhone
GOOG:
- numbers look pretty good but shares down about 5%
Earlier, Before The Close
Market: unchanged. Goldilocks. No "hard landing," no "soft landing." Rather, a "tough and go."
SLB: implodes. Bad news out of Saudi Arabia.
WTI: folks will probably disagree but there's a sense that WTI is seeing higher lows, and higher lows. WTI is up nicely today, but probably won't hit $78,
MSFT: Wall Street darling right now; stole the crown from Apple. This should not be news.
Consumer sentiment, link here:
Major indices: Dow, S&P
500 both turn positive midday after earnings start to come out; NASDAQ
off 60 points but that's almost all due to AAPL. Rest of NASDAQ doing
well. For confirmation, check out the chips.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market
GM, absolutely predictable:
EVs: link here.
- scorecard
- cash burn
- graphite
- not for me.
- "Energy transition is dead" is followed here.
- EVs charging.
- cold weather -- reality sets in -- January, 2024
- resale value -- a deal-breaker
******************
My Favorite Chart(s)
It's Not Inflation -- It's The Supply Chain -- January 30, 2024
Locator: 46692LEGO.
Identical product, #71040. New last year; hard to find; often on back order.
This is exactly what the supply chain is all about.
And some folks argue this is inflation. It's not. It's the supply chain.
Same, identical product.
How bad can it get? Over at eBay:
Plus another $25 for shipping.
Shipping at Amazon and Lego, both free shipping. Ordering direct also gets you a free, second gift, retail at $25. Plus points for VIP member.
I Guess It's An Amazon Day -- January 30, 2024
Locator: 46691AMAZON.
This has come up often on CNBC from multiple sources. "Televised" sports is moving to "streaming" sports. Big, big, big deal.
Amazon, Thursday night football.
Apple, major league soccer.
MLB?
Local news? Streaming? That is the next big nut to crack.
The only "thing" for which I use local networks? Local news. And why? Mostly the weather.
****************************
A Slice of Lynch
Spatial Computing -- January 30, 2024
Locator: 46690AAPL.
I saw her interview live on CNBC. She raved about the Vision Pro, and she and Carl Q both agreed watching a movie was absolutely amazing.
My hunch: spatial computing will be a huge success by all measures than the EV.
The WPX Bull Moose Wells -- January 30, 2024
Locator: 46689B.
The well:
- 39727, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HZ, Reunion Bay, npd;
The wells
- 20493, IA/1099, WPX, North John Elk 28HC, Reunion Bay, t4/113; cum 227K 3/23;
- 39698, drl, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HB, Reunion Bay, spud 6/23;
- 39697, drl, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HW, Reunion Bay, spud 6/23;
- 39696, drl, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HIL, Reunion Bay, spud 6/23;
- 39722, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HS, Reunion Bay,
- 39723, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HF, Reunion Bay,
- 39724, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HY, Reunion Bay,
- 39725, drl, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HT, Reunion Bay, spud 7/23;
- 39726, drl, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HD, Reunion Bay, spud 7/23;
- 39727, drl, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HZ, Reunion Bay, spud 7/23;
- 39728, drl, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HEL, Reunion Bay, spud 7/23;
Market Today -- January 30, 2024
Locator: 46688INV.
Major indices: Dow, S&P 500 both turn positive midday after earnings start to come out; NASDAQ off 60 points but that's almost all due to. AAPL. Rest of NASDAQ doing well. For confirmation, check out the chips.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
Personal investing: today I bought -- both are in my investment buckets --
- Daimler trucking for the grandsons in Portland, OR; and,
- SNAP
NVID vs AMD vs BRK over five years (the one-year graphs would look very similar):
Amazon Logistics -- Commentary -- January 30, 2024
Locator: 46687AMZN.
Amazon, UPS, FedEx: our apartment complex is about five minutes from the DFW airport which is surrounded by Amazon fulfillment centers and international Amazon hubs. Amazon keeps building inside, outside, and in-between.
- inside: robots, AI, logistics
- outside: new huge facilities
- in-between: brand new vans
In our apartment complex, this is what I'm seeing:
- no less than six brand new Amazon vans make deliveries between 7:00 a.m. and 10:00 p.m. everyday of the week, (that's almost 24/7)
- we generally see one FedEx truck come through every day but generally not on weekends
- I assume Big Brown -- UPS -- comes through the complex every day, but it seems there are days that I don't recall a Big Brown van coming by at all
- Big Brown used to be a big deal in the apartment complex; no more
- Amazon is no longer a two-day delivery service; it's hardly even a one-day delivery service any more; even for routine stuff I don't need right away, when I put in an order I will get it in less than six hours
- for our Mardi Gras party two days ago (Sunday), I ordered something Sunday late morning and it arrived at 5:00 p.m. the same day -- this was on a Sunday
- Amazon can almost always get me routine deliveries overnight but I generally request a later delivery day (usually one day later) so multiple orders can arrive at the same time
- Amazon provides me an incentive for that option -- I actually can't recall the incentive because I don't care about the incentive; I just want my orders lumped together
- more and more I order non-perishable (especially paper products, K-cups, etc) by subscription; saves an incredible 15% -- results in less spending at local grocery stores;
- when FedEx (or Big Brown) comes through, the delivery man jumps out and carries a single package, often a big envelope -- incredibly inefficient and expensive -- measured by items delivered per driver, per van, per route
- FedEx vans are generally in bad shape; look old, worn out, old tires
- when the Amazon driver jumps out, he has several boxes and it's not unusual to see the driver make multiple returns to the truck to pick up more items at same stop
- bright, shiny new vans
- not mentioned? USPS -- clearly exceeds deliveries by FedEx and Big Brown combined
I could write much more -- especially on the business model but I have to move on, but look at these four ways for Americans to mail packages. Which one -- one -- is the outlier?
- US Postal Service
- FedEx
- UPS -- Big Brown
- Amazon
UPS: implodes; it's a one off but this is huge; miss on revenue; beat on earnings; 12,000 jobs cut. But as noted, it's a one-off: poorly run; loss to FedEx, and, of course, the 600-pound gorilla, Amazon.
Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- Januuary 30, 2024
Locator: 46686B.
Busy, busy day. Lots of earnings, analysis, observations but that will all have to wait.
Cramer: we've moved from disinflation to deflation. For the Fed, the economy is going their way.
Trans Mountain hits another delay: drilling anomaly.
Coal: cheaper coal could make Turkey Europe's largest coal-burning nation. It doesn't help that the Red Sea is closed. And it seems the US Navy can't change that. Peter Zeihan wrote about this years ago.
Cleveland-Cliffs: this is pretty amazing. Record shipping this past year. Great earnings; great guidance, Shares up 4%.
Brazil: fuel imports from Russia surge to record highs. Link here.
But two things were predictable: GM and Amazon.
UPS: implodes; it's a one off but this is huge; miss on revenue; beat on earnings; 12,000 jobs cut. But as noted, it's a one-off: poorly run; loss to FedEx, and, of course, the 600-pound gorilla, Amazon. I'll talk about this again later. It's a big, big deal.
GDPNow estimate, 1Q24: 3.0%. Whoo-hoo. Link here. A reminder:
**********************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $76.12.
Wednesday, January 31, 2024: 59 for the month; 59 for the quarter, 59 for the year
39728, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HEL,
39112, conf, Hess, EN-Hegland-155-94-0508H-5, see production data here;
38991, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot 42-26-2TFHU,
39727, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HZ,
39538, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-7, see production data here;
39111, conf, Hess, EN-Hegland-155-94-0508H-4, see production data here;
RBN Energy: Canada's natural gas market remains mired in oversupply at midwinter.
The current winter heating season in Canada has seen extremes of warmth and cold, but much more of the former than the latter. Given that the Canadian natural gas market was already oversupplied and struggling with record-high gas storage levels as winter approached, even the most intense cold blast in mid-January wasn’t enough to return the supply/demand balance north of the 49th parallel to anything near normal. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss where the Canadian market stands as the calendar turns to February and what that might mean for end-of-winter gas balances.
The current heating season across North America has proven to be one of the more unusual in recent years. Blowtorch warmth in November and (especially) December was followed by a bone-chilling cold blast for many of us through about half of January. The crazy swings in Canadian heating loads have left the natural gas market — at just past the halfway point of the heating season — in more of a dazed state than is usually the case. The extreme fluctuations have also greatly affected market balances in such a way that a distinct overhang of gas supply, present since late last summer, seems likely to persist to the end of the current heating season and into the summer of 2024.