Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- Januuary 30, 2024

Locator: 46686B.

Busy, busy day. Lots of earnings, analysis, observations but that will all have to wait.

Cramer: we've moved from disinflation to deflation. For the Fed, the economy is going their way. 

Trans Mountain hits another delay: drilling anomaly. 

Coal: cheaper coal could make Turkey Europe's largest coal-burning nation. It doesn't help that the Red Sea is closed. And it seems the US Navy can't change that. Peter Zeihan wrote about this years ago.  

Cleveland-Cliffs: this is pretty amazing. Record shipping this past year. Great earnings; great guidance, Shares up 4%.

Brazil: fuel imports from Russia surge to record highs. Link here.

But two things were predictable: GM and Amazon.

UPS: implodes; it's a one off but this is huge; miss on revenue; beat on earnings; 12,000 jobs cut. But as noted, it's a one-off: poorly run; loss to FedEx, and, of course, the 600-pound gorilla, Amazon. I'll talk about this again later. It's a big, big deal.

GDPNow estimate, 1Q24: 3.0%. Whoo-hoo. Link here. A reminder:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $76.12.

Wednesday, January 31, 2024: 59 for the month; 59 for the quarter, 59 for the year
39728, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HEL,
39112, conf,  Hess, EN-Hegland-155-94-0508H-5, see production data here;
38991, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot 42-26-2TFHU,

Tuesday, January 30, 2024: 56 for the month; 56 for the quarter, 56 for the year
39727, conf, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HZ,
39538, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-7, see production data here;
39111, conf, Hess, EN-Hegland-155-94-0508H-4, see production data here;

RBN Energy: Canada's natural gas market remains mired in oversupply at midwinter.

The current winter heating season in Canada has seen extremes of warmth and cold, but much more of the former than the latter. Given that the Canadian natural gas market was already oversupplied and struggling with record-high gas storage levels as winter approached, even the most intense cold blast in mid-January wasn’t enough to return the supply/demand balance north of the 49^th parallel to anything near normal. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss where the Canadian market stands as the calendar turns to February and what that might mean for end-of-winter gas balances. 

The current heating season across North America has proven to be one of the more unusual in recent years. Blowtorch warmth in November and (especially) December was followed by a bone-chilling cold blast for many of us through about half of January. The crazy swings in Canadian heating loads have left the natural gas market — at just past the halfway point of the heating season — in more of a dazed state than is usually the case. The extreme fluctuations have also greatly affected market balances in such a way that a distinct overhang of gas supply, present since late last summer, seems likely to persist to the end of the current heating season and into the summer of 2024.