Back To The Bakken; Two New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46647CAT.

Wow, wow, wow -- Jim Cramer starting his show off with CAT. Wow, wow wow --- CAT is one of my big-cap, non-tech stocks in my "investing buckets." 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

INTC: down 10 percent for the day.  

AMD down 3%.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $77.09.

Active rigs: 39.

Two new permits, #40470 - #40471, inclusive:

• Operator: Oasis
• Field: Tyrone (Williams)
• Comments:
• Oasis has permits for two Maverick Federal wells, NWNE 12-156-102; to be sited 305 FNL with one 1637 FEL and the other 1571 FEL;

Four permits canceled:

• CLR: four Harms Federal wells, McKenzie County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39298, 459, Slawson, Jericho Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend,
  
• 39825, 1,696, Grayson Mill, Figaro 32-29 6H, Camp,
• 39826, 2,235, Grayson Mill, Figaro32-29 7H, Camp,
• 40019, 2,293, Grayson Mill, Figaro 32-293H, Camp,
  

WTI Today: Up Almost 3% -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46646WTI.

INTC: huge share loss after earnings released. Anticipated during the day.

WTI: up almost 3%; up over $2.00 today; trading at $77.18. 

My hunch: anyone paying attention sees things heating up in the Mideast and the US Navy losing to the Houthi with regard to control of the Red Sea.

If Warren Buffett sold his TSM due to worries that China was ready to invade Taiwan, one wonders what he thinks about the Mideast right now?

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Laser-Focused on Dividends -- YUM

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The Book and Art Page

$60 at the museum; $40 at Amazon. Ordered Tuesday evening, arrived the next day, Wednesday afternoon.

• The Rossettis, Tate, edited by Carol Jacobi and James Finch, c. 2023
• Collaboration between the Tate Britain London (April - September, 2023); and,
• Delaware Art Museum (October, 2023 - January, 2024)

Another Look At The 4Q23 GDP Released This Morning -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46645GDP.

How impressive was the GDP number for the 4Q23 that was reported this morning?

4Q23 GDP came in at 3.3%.

Analysts were forecasting 2.0%.

The last GDPNow forecast 2.4%.

Look at the graph below (previously posted. What do you notice?

Not even one analyst forecast anything close to 3%. Amazing!

RMDs -- What No One Seems To Ever Mention -- 2024 Huge Year For IRAs -- See Why -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46644IRA.

Key dates to remember with regard to IRAs:

• 1970
• 1981
• 1997

When did IRAs truly start to impact the economy? I would argue, 1995, to some extent, but then took off in 2007:

• 1970: traditional IRA introduced
• 1980: folks became comfortable with IRAs
• 1997: IRAs improved by a huge amount with the introduction of Roth IRAs
• 2007: another ten years of traditional IRA / Roth IRA growth in popularity

Now, look at this graph:

 Same chart with markers and comments:

Demographics, US:

Look at this, and no one seems to be mentioning this.

Age when one can start taking distributions from one's IRAs: 59.5 years of age.

IRA RMDs by demographic (note, data is somewhat old):

• silent generation: minimal impact on economy with regard to RMDs
• those who have IRAs are probably using RMDs for nursing home expenses
• baby boomers: biggest impact on economy with regard to RMDs
• those born in 1964: turn 78 years of age this year
• those born in 1946: turn 60 years of age
• in other words, every -- repeat, every baby boomer can now take RMDs
• my wife has been taking distributions before they were required and now RMDs for maybe ten years and despite the withdrawals year-after year, her IRA continues to grow
• I start taking my first RMDs this year
  
• almost all baby boomers can now tap into their social security benefits
• almost all baby boomers are covered by Medicare. Medicare benefits got even better in 2024 (thank you, Mr Biden), seniors will spend less money on healthcare (all things being equal)
  
• 529s: a lot of baby boomers (GRANDPARENTS) are going to look for tax-advantage accounts to place RMDs they don't need for current expenses
• 529s have vastly improved starting this year (or last year?) making these investment vehicles look even better -- I'm having trouble finding a better place to re-invest my RMDs
• interestingly, one can argue that 529s are even better than IRAs
  
• generation X: will start to make impact this year but not much, but it will continue to grow every year for the next decade or so
• those born in 1980: turn 44 years old this year; no impact on economy with regard to RMDs but starting to hit max income / max productive years of their lives
• the younger Xers, now in the best years of their lives, financially, are now more likely to fund IRAs and that will help set a floor for the equity market;
  
• those born in 1965: turn 59 years old this year!
  
• this is the biggie
• starting this year, generation X folks can start tapping their IRAs; it doesn't mean that they will but it means that if they don't, they have enough other income to offset any need for IRA distribution (meaning strong financial status for those folks)
  
• again, this is huge
• Roth IRAs have been around 27 years and the last 27 years have been great for investors, but
• even better: the way the market behaved last year and how the market is now behaving in the second half of January, 2024, a lot of folks are getting excited
• my hunch: a lot of folks are taking some / all of their RMDs this month; if not their entire RMD, taking a fourth to half of their annual RMD
• only a few more years and Xers will also be able to access social security benefits, also
  

On top of all this, this "RMD story" is not going to go away. Year-after-year RMDs will increase in dollar amounts, but whether they increase or not, they will never quit.

And we haven't even begun to talk about "inherited RMDs":

• "inherited RMDs"? Reminder, oldest baby boomers turn 78 years of age this year -- IRS life expectancy for IRAs tend to trend toward 100 years of age -- taking only minimal RMDs, the vast majority of IRAs will still be funded and growing when their own dies.
  
• unlike owners of IRAs who can spread their RMDs over a life expectancy (26 years or longer), beneficiaries (those who inherit IRAs) must deplete those IRAs in ten years.
• one word: wow.
  

ServiceNow -- Cramer Interview With Company CEO -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46643INV.

Tickers:

 

ServiceNow: (NOW) is not in my portfolio and not on my bucket list. I simply had not heard of it until I heard the Cramer interview. Among the many things that stood out in that interview, ServiceNow is partnered with AWS.

Pre-Market -- After GDP Numbers Released -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46642ARCHIVES.

Personal investing:

• yesterday bought MSFT
• today will buy MRVL and DE

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

Pre-market after GDP numbers released:

• DOW: up 79 points; before numbers released, flat -- DOW is now up sharply, being offset by Boeing.
  
• NASDAQ: up 88 points; before numbers up, but not this much
  
• S&P 500: up another 16 points; in the old days, Dow||S&P --> 10||1 --> S&P up 16 --> Dow up 160 points

Cramer:

• Tesla is out. No longer the "Magnificent Seven."
• now the "Six Samurai."
• maybe add Broadcom to get it back to the "Magnificent Seven."

Huge "Beat" For 4Q23 GDP; Even Beat GDPNow By 90 Basis Points; Market Looking For 2% -- Actual: 3.3% -- "Recession Is Receding"

Locator: 46641B.

Can't wait to listen to Jim Cramer in a few minutes, starting at 8:00 a.m.

3.3% vs 2.0% estimate. 

Much, much higher than GDPNow.

Former Dallas fed president:

• "recession is receding"
• Fed should be congratulated
• doesn't see any reason to "act." Doesn't see any reason to cut rates. [I agree 1,000%. My mother would love the "higher" interest rates and my father would love the equity market.]
  
• "why cut": the Fed rate is in the "normal" range
• economy: doing well
• Powell won't make any Fed decisions based on political considerations; in fact, he will avoid even the perception which means possibility of no change in Fed rate until after November election;
• economy, when asked directly: A+
• inflation coming down; "everyone" has a job; GDP numbers huge.
  

Huge numbers across the board. Will post full numbers when available. For now, just go to the initial links below.

Market after GDP numbers released: all indices move up slightly. 

Barron's: link here.

The WSJ: link here. 

Back to CNBC panel:

• "Goldilocks." LOL.
• Steve Liesman: "it's very good."
• retail inventory surging
• new growth in GDP has nothing to do with inflation!
• all about supply chain
• inflation "well behaved"
• companies reaping benefits from technology employed to fight high costs
• are folks working from home more productive
• people with more money in their pockets
• grudgingly says the word "Goldilocks." Doesn't want to "jinx it."
  
• other analysts
• amazed by a great number; 
• inventory extremely strong number 
• core inflation declining close to Fed's target
• real wage gain among lowest economic group; biggest marginal spenders
• only risk now: Fed takes too long to cut
• unable to understand underlying pessimism the last several years
  
• PCE price index: 1.7%
• core PCE price index: 2.0%
• the words "blockbuster," "Goldilocks," "amazing," keep popping up.
  

January 25, 2024

Locator: 46640B.

AA: a beat on top and bottom line. HQ in Dallas, TX.

CMCSA: raises dividend 7%.

Long live coal!

Killing the golden goose: 

Inflation watch: 

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- But -- Still Lots Of News -- January 25, 2024

Locator: 46639B.

WTI: up a dollar; up over 1%; trading at $76.02. We haven't seen $76 in quite some time. 

• the overnight  Houthi - US Navy story likely the reason.

2 nm chip: two links --

• MacRumors -- Apple to receive TSMC's first 2-nm chips; expect production to begin 2H25
• the blog -- ranked by relevance.

Sunocco to buy NuStar Energy, link here:

• $7.3 billion deal
• a premium of 31.9% to NuStar's last closing price

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $76.02.

Friday, January 26, 2024: 45 for the month; 45 for the quarter, 45 for the year
35368, conf, Enerplus, Bandicoot 152-94-23CH-TF1,

Thursday, January 25, 2024: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 44 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: with Tier 3 costs sky-high, US refiners consider investments, alternatives.

When the price of the Tier 3 sulfur credit hit a new high of $3,600 in October 2023, the tradable sulfur credit for gasoline moved from the background to center stage in refining circles. And while credit prices have retreated slightly to about $3,400, they still represent a nearly 10-fold increase over two years and translate to a Tier 3 compliance cost of almost $3/bbl, raising concerns from refiners in a highly competitive market. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how refiners are adapting and the investments that could reduce the cost of compliance. 

Implemented in 2014 with initial phase-in beginning in 2017 and full implementation in 2020, the Tier 3 gasoline sulfur standard requires that all refiners and importers that deliver gasoline to the U.S. market meet a 10 parts per million (ppm) maximum sulfur specification as an annual average, compared with 30 ppm under the previous Tier 2 specs. The Tier 3 sulfur credit system allows refiners to sell gasoline that exceeds the 10 ppm annual average as long as they match their sulfur excess with credits.