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Thursday, January 25, 2024

Huge "Beat" For 4Q23 GDP; Even Beat GDPNow By 90 Basis Points; Market Looking For 2% -- Actual: 3.3% -- "Recession Is Receding"

Locator: 46641B.

Can't wait to listen to Jim Cramer in a few minutes, starting at 8:00 a.m.

3.3% vs 2.0% estimate. 

Much, much higher than GDPNow.

Former Dallas fed president:

  • "recession is receding"
  • Fed should be congratulated
  • doesn't see any reason to "act." Doesn't see any reason to cut rates. [I agree 1,000%. My mother would love the "higher" interest rates and my father would love the equity market.]
  • "why cut": the Fed rate is in the "normal" range
  • economy: doing well
  • Powell won't make any Fed decisions based on political considerations; in fact, he will avoid even the perception which means possibility of no change in Fed rate until after November election;
  • economy, when asked directly: A+
  • inflation coming down; "everyone" has a job; GDP numbers huge.

Huge numbers across the board. Will post full numbers when available. For now, just go to the initial links below.

Market after GDP numbers released: all indices move up slightly

Barron's: link here.

The WSJ: link here

Back to CNBC panel:

  • "Goldilocks." LOL.
  • Steve Liesman: "it's very good."
    • retail inventory surging
    • new growth in GDP has nothing to do with inflation!
    • all about supply chain
    • inflation "well behaved"
    • companies reaping benefits from technology employed to fight high costs
    • are folks working from home more productive
    • people with more money in their pockets
    • grudgingly says the word "Goldilocks." Doesn't want to "jinx it."
  • other analysts
    • amazed by a great number; 
    • inventory extremely strong number 
    • core inflation declining close to Fed's target
    • real wage gain among lowest economic group; biggest marginal spenders
    • only risk now: Fed takes too long to cut
    • unable to understand underlying pessimism the last several years
  • PCE price index: 1.7%
  • core PCE price index: 2.0%
  • the words "blockbuster," "Goldilocks," "amazing," keep popping up.

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