Initial Production For An MRO Austin Well -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46594B.

When this well came off confidential list, back on February 16, 2023, we didn't have its initial production. We have it now.

The well:

• 8573, 3,740, MRO, Austin 11-18H, Bailey, t4/22; cum 3K over first 13 days; cum 279K 11/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	28	3104	3134	3518	4820	4665	81
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	3169	3148	4161	5076	4701	295
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	3401	3342	4358	5414	4950	379
BAKKEN	8-2023	15	1867	1946	2278	3544	3303	184
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	5355	5344	5234	10795	10199	448
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	5612	5570	6175	10396	10240	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	6368	6416	5821	12562	12166	240
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	7388	7351	7160	22155	21520	323
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	7651	7811	7007	14880	14356	318
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	6732	6711	5855	10642	9967	546
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	10709	10729	9994	14711	13804	739
BAKKEN	12-2022	28	8974	8873	7410	10682	10183	47
BAKKEN	11-2022	18	5824	5908	5225	7322	6349	704
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	14775	14722	13309	11969	10095	1373
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	15846	15819	14761	8271	8146	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	30	24223	24218	19939	23554	23112	54
BAKKEN	7-2022	30	33334	33409	30016	28866	28350	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	40359	40391	40647	29836	28533	704
BAKKEN	5-2022	30	48085	48248	57801	42182	38242	601
BAKKEN	4-2022	29	26625	26185	28886	17914	15656	262

 

Update On Wells That Reported July 18, 2023 -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46593B.

Updating wells that were reported July 18, 2023.

The wells:

Today, July 18, 2023, producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36539, 2,431, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23C, Capa, t6/23; cum 163K 11/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	7692	7846	5597	11797	11416	26
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	25710	25760	20913	46721	45443	181
BAKKEN	9-2023	22	24166	24181	21825	40623	39733	48
BAKKEN	8-2023	26	41333	41601	30205	67751	66998	704
BAKKEN	7-2023	30	64069	63568	51878	97308	93469	3773
BAKKEN	6-2023	2	199	111	1533	376	0	376

•  36540, 1,991, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23G, Capa, t6/23; cum 126K 11/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	16226	16217	19428	28930	27915	69
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	20721	20690	23118	32788	31884	128
BAKKEN	9-2023	21	13827	13862	19005	21316	20835	26
BAKKEN	8-2023	26	27105	27329	30909	42763	42293	440
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	47243	46990	57243	70440	67733	2661
BAKKEN	6-2023	2	410	229	1939	425	0	425

•  36541, 1,977, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23A, Capa, t6/23; cum 135K 11/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	15123	15125	11445	41454	39942	103
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	20338	20345	13654	40978	39833	162
BAKKEN	9-2023	23	16538	16541	11831	26438	25856	32
BAKKEN	8-2023	25	27321	27597	19427	46174	45661	480
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	53132	53820	39009	82090	78945	3091
BAKKEN	6-2023	12	2667	1491	8589	4519	2915	1596

Others:

• 36537, loc/NC, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23D, Capa, t5/23; cum 113K 11/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	27189	27104	22428	50704	48918	122
BAKKEN	10-2023	22	27636	28053	20193	45314	44085	174
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	54673	54008	38092	83427	81494	105
BAKKEN	8-2023	3	3452	3425	2239	4166	4118	45
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	99	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	1	225	195	960	281	0	281
BAKKEN	5-2023	1	69	0	200	294	0	294

• 36538, loc/NC, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23H, Capa, t6/23; cum 67K 11/23; 24,487 bbls over 15 days extrapolates to almost 50K over 30 days.
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	15	990	1176	3013	1697	1654	3
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	19949	20022	21600	30574	29759	115
BAKKEN	9-2023	19	21451	21369	23879	33135	32406	40
BAKKEN	8-2023	15	24487	24297	22965	34753	34357	370
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	71	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	2	161	90	1939	460	0	460

Wells of interest:

• 36217, drl/A, XTO, Allie 31X-24EXH, Capa; to the east of the Marilyn wells; t5/23; cum 126K 11/23:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	24512	24467	20113	42466	40638	814
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	29791	29871	19703	47665	45619	996
BAKKEN	9-2023	25	24538	24498	25426	38295	37440	72
BAKKEN	8-2023	27	47282	46997	38877	68463	68213	194
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	17	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	3	42	25	5783	322	0	322

• 17813, IA/448, XTO, Tubie 21X-23, Capa, same section as the Marilyn wells, t4/09; cum 100K 2/23; came off line 3/23; remains off line 11/23; cum 109K 2/23;

Follow Up On Three DUCs Reported Last Autumn -- January 20, 2023

Locator: 46592B.

Follow-up on these wells reported September 18, 2023:

Three producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

• 37955, 1,884, CLR, Brangus FIU 4-11H, Elm Tree, t5/23; cum 171K 11/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	13254	13317	14180	35903	29428	6475
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	19365	19285	13454	43914	40423	3491
BAKKEN	9-2023	28	26620	26645	16260	53487	52641	846
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	38033	38046	20135	63976	62919	1057
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	54381	54375	28399	84776	83102	1674
BAKKEN	6-2023	18	19179	19057	11195	27129	25508	1621
BAKKEN	5-2023	2	0	0	1510	0	0	0

• 39209, 3,431, MRO, Maas USA 11-18TFH, Bailey, t5/23;; cum 162K 11/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	12958	12928	11220	22001	21898	5
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	13099	13165	9622	20234	20161	7
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	27126	27133	16772	29059	28845	129
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	36811	36810	21931	37491	37072	317
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	39386	39348	31159	46724	46256	332
BAKKEN	6-2023	27	30671	30731	28757	26478	26393	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	29	65573	65388	93370	59696	56406	3140
BAKKEN	4-2023	1	0	0	14	0	0	0

• 39210, 4,182, MRO, GT USA 11-18H, Bailey, t4/23; cum 226K 11/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	12958	12928	11220	22001	21898	5
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	13099	13165	9622	20234	20161	7
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	27126	27133	16772	29059	28845	129
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	36811	36810	21931	37491	37072	317
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	39386	39348	31159	46724	46256	332
BAKKEN	6-2023	27	30671	30731	28757	26478	26393	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	29	65573	65388	93370	59696	56406	3140
BAKKEN	4-2023	1	0	0	14	0	0	0

Well of interest:

• 16666, 502, MRO, Bob Tuhy 44-19H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 518K 2/23; off line 3/23; back on line 11/23 for 11 days; apparently no jump in production;

Maps:

Biggest Investing Story Yesterday? Travelers -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46591INV.

In all the excitement and all the chatter yesterday, I simply ran out of time to talk about Travelers. 

I think Travelers was the biggest investment story yesterday, even bigger than the all-time highs for the major indices, and the continued surge in technology stocks. 

Ticker:

Other stories:

Look at that net income!

And then read why? That's the big story. That will hold true for all insurance companies. I'm looking at you, Geico.

My Favorite Chart Updated Overnight -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46590MMF.

For the archives: the US stock market was in the doldrums the first two weeks of January. On January 19, 2024, the market surged, all major indices hitting new all-time highs. Despite money (apparently) pouring into equities, MMF assets also continued to grow.

What an economy!

My favorite chart.

Link here.

Assets have increased -- not much -- but they have increased. 

Browsers Are Dead! Long Live Browsers! Vision Pro -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46589APPLE.

Tag: Vision Pro.

The Vision Pro is not even released yet -- but it's close -- and already folks are noting how things might change.

This is for the archives. A nice preview of what we might see. 

Could this affect you? If you don't know, imagine deleting all your "app icons." That should answer the question.

My hunch: Apple has been working this issue for several years.

From the linked article over at The Verge:

But what if you don’t need the App Store to reach Apple users anymore? All this corporate infighting has the potential to completely change the way we use our devices, starting with the Vision Pro.

It’s not like you can’t use Spotify on the headset; it’s just that instead of tapping a Spotify app icon, you’ll have to go to Spotify.com. Same for YouTube, Netflix, and every other web app that opts not to build something native for the Vision Pro. And for gamers, whether you want to use Xbox Game Pass or just play Fortnite, you’ll also need a browser.

Over the last decade or so, we’ve all stopped opening websites and started tapping app icons, but the age of the URL might be coming back. 

If you believe the open web is a good thing, and that developers should spend more time on their web apps and less on their native ones, this is a big win for the future of the internet. (Disclosure: I believe all these things.) The problem is, it’s happening after nearly two decades of mobile platforms systematically downgrading and ignoring their browsing experience.

You can create homescreen bookmarks, which are just shortcuts to web apps, but those web apps don’t have the same access to offline modes, cross-app collaboration, or some of your phone’s other built-in features. After all this time, you still can’t easily run browser extensions on mobile Safari or mobile Chrome. Apple also makes it maddeningly complicated just to stay logged in to the services you use on the web across different apps. Mobile platforms treat browsers like webpage viewers, not app platforms, and it shows.

What makes this more troublesome from my view: there are indications that Apple felt pressure to release the Vision Pro even if it wasn't quite ready for prime time.

European De-Industrialization -- The Road To Germany -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46588GERMANY.

Google what's wrong with Germany to see how bad things are going for Germany.

From themes 2023: 

From today on twitter:

Barron's Roundtable -- Market Hits An All-Time High -- 27 Picks For The New Year -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46587INV.

This roundtable met on January 8, 2024, before the market hit that all-time high. On January 8, 2024, the market was still in the doldrums. It would be interesting what the participants in this roundtable might say now.

Link here.

Some mentioned that caught my eye:

• FANG
• ON Semiconductor
• META
• Biogen
  

I was surprised by the paucity of tech companies on the list. Eight of the 27 were high-yield tax-free income funds and investment grade bonds.

But the list did not change my "bucket" list.

Since 1991 -- Thirty-Two Years Ago? January 20, 2024

Locator: 46586ECON.

Link here.

Biggest two-month increase since 1991.

What are they upbeat about?

Flashback -- October, 2022 -- Posted January 20, 2024

Locator: 46585INV.

Link here.

Wasn't energy one of the worst, if not the worst, sector in 2023?

Where was AI?

And these were the experts.

Re-Posting: EV Bloodbath Continues -- Barron's -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46584EVS.

Themes, 2024, link here:

EVs: have lost their luster

• 2024 was to have been the break-out year for EVs
• high interest rates and the long UAW strike will push this transition out at least another three years (2027)
• it's obvious that EVs are luxury cars, and Americans are subsidizing rich folks to buy luxury cars
• state governments will realize that lost gasoline tax revenue is a huge problem for highway maintenance, much less new highways

Updates

Saturday, January 20, 2024: link here (warning: sarcasm alert) --

Saturday, January 20, 2024: link here ---

From the linked article:

Tesla is on the cusp of an ignominious record. If shares close lower on Friday, it will be the tenth trading day of losses out of the first 12—the worst start of any year in Tesla’s history.

Shares fell nine out of the first 12 trading days to start 2015 and 2016. Still, Tesla’s recent performance looks absolutely glowing compared with some peers. Shares of Chinese EV makers NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto were off 4.5%, 4.1%, and 3%, respectively, in Friday trading.

For January so far, NIO shares were down 34%, while XPeng dropped 35%, and Li shares were down 25%.

There isn’t much new to pin Friday’s declines on. Instead it’s a continuation of a significant theme: Chinese EV price wars that have weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

Original Post 

Disruptive:

• EVs: link here. Scorecard. 
• cash burn
  
• graphite
• not for me. "Energy transition is dead" is followed here.
  
• EVs charging. 
• cold weather -- reality sets in
• resale value -- a deal-breaker
  

Tesla: All major EV auto manufacturers were down today, including GM, F, Tesla, Polestar, Lucid, Rivan, some significantly. From Barron's: 

The US Army:

My take from the Barron's article: this is all to be expected. It's a learning curve. Deal with it. 

Frankly, I'm getting tired of that attitude.

Contrarian Thought -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46603FORD.

I think it's just possible that Ford might have some incredible earnings this year, perhaps as early as 2Q24. The number of new Broncos and Rangers being seen in the DFW area seems to be striking. 

We still see a lot of Teslas in this area, but the number does not seem to be increasing.

Link here.

But the most noticeable vehicle in the DFW area, without question, is the Jeep. I've never seen so many new Jeeps on the roads in north Texas as I seem to be seeing now.

Vs DAL:

See this post from 2020.