Pages

Saturday, January 20, 2024

Initial Production For An MRO Austin Well -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46594B.

When this well came off confidential list, back on February 16, 2023, we didn't have its initial production. We have it now.

The well:

  • 8573, 3,740, MRO, Austin 11-18H, Bailey, t4/22; cum 3K over first 13 days; cum 279K 11/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2023283104313435184820466581
BAKKEN10-20233131693148416150764701295
BAKKEN9-20233034013342435854144950379
BAKKEN8-20231518671946227835443303184
BAKKEN7-2023315355534452341079510199448
BAKKEN6-20233056125570617510396102400
BAKKEN5-2023316368641658211256212166240
BAKKEN4-2023307388735171602215521520323
BAKKEN3-2023317651781170071488014356318
BAKKEN2-202328673267115855106429967546
BAKKEN1-202331107091072999941471113804739
BAKKEN12-202228897488737410106821018347
BAKKEN11-20221858245908522573226349704
BAKKEN10-20223114775147221330911969100951373
BAKKEN9-202230158461581914761827181460
BAKKEN8-202230242232421819939235542311254
BAKKEN7-20223033334334093001628866283500
BAKKEN6-2022304035940391406472983628533704
BAKKEN5-2022304808548248578014218238242601
BAKKEN4-2022292662526185288861791415656262

 

Update On Wells That Reported July 18, 2023 -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46593B.

Updating wells that were reported July 18, 2023.

The wells:

Today, July 18, 2023, producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36539, 2,431, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23C, Capa, t6/23; cum 163K 11/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202330769278465597117971141626
BAKKEN10-2023312571025760209134672145443181
BAKKEN9-202322241662418121825406233973348
BAKKEN8-2023264133341601302056775166998704
BAKKEN7-20233064069635685187897308934693773
BAKKEN6-2023219911115333760376
  •  36540, 1,991, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23G, Capa, t6/23; cum 126K 11/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202330162261621719428289302791569
BAKKEN10-2023312072120690231183278831884128
BAKKEN9-202321138271386219005213162083526
BAKKEN8-2023262710527329309094276342293440
BAKKEN7-20233147243469905724370440677332661
BAKKEN6-2023241022919394250425
  •  36541, 1,977, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23A, Capa, t6/23; cum 135K 11/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2023301512315125114454145439942103
BAKKEN10-2023312033820345136544097839833162
BAKKEN9-202323165381654111831264382585632
BAKKEN8-2023252732127597194274617445661480
BAKKEN7-20233153132538203900982090789453091
BAKKEN6-202312266714918589451929151596

Others:

  • 36537, loc/NC, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23D, Capa, t5/23; cum 113K 11/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2023302718927104224285070448918122
BAKKEN10-2023222763628053201934531444085174
BAKKEN9-2023305467354008380928342781494105
BAKKEN8-202333452342522394166411845
BAKKEN7-202300990000
BAKKEN6-202312251959602810281
BAKKEN5-202316902002940294
  • 36538, loc/NC, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23H, Capa, t6/23; cum 67K 11/23; 24,487 bbls over 15 days extrapolates to almost 50K over 30 days.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20231599011763013169716543
BAKKEN10-2023311994920022216003057429759115
BAKKEN9-202319214512136923879331353240640
BAKKEN8-2023152448724297229653475334357370
BAKKEN7-202300710000
BAKKEN6-202321619019394600460

Wells of interest:

  • 36217, drl/A, XTO, Allie 31X-24EXH, Capa; to the east of the Marilyn wells; t5/23; cum 126K 11/23:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2023302451224467201134246640638814
BAKKEN10-2023312979129871197034766545619996
BAKKEN9-202325245382449825426382953744072
BAKKEN8-2023274728246997388776846368213194
BAKKEN7-20230000000
BAKKEN6-202300170000
BAKKEN5-20233422557833220322
  • 17813, IA/448, XTO, Tubie 21X-23, Capa, same section as the Marilyn wells, t4/09; cum 100K 2/23; came off line 3/23; remains off line 11/23; cum 109K 2/23;

Follow Up On Three DUCs Reported Last Autumn -- January 20, 2023

Locator: 46592B.

Follow-up on these wells reported September 18, 2023:

Three producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

  • 37955, 1,884, CLR, Brangus FIU 4-11H, Elm Tree, t5/23; cum 171K 11/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20233013254133171418035903294286475
BAKKEN10-20233119365192851345443914404233491
BAKKEN9-2023282662026645162605348752641846
BAKKEN8-20233138033380462013563976629191057
BAKKEN7-20233154381543752839984776831021674
BAKKEN6-20231819179190571119527129255081621
BAKKEN5-20232001510000
  • 39209, 3,431, MRO, Maas USA 11-18TFH, Bailey, t5/23;; cum 162K 11/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20233012958129281122022001218985
BAKKEN10-2023311309913165962220234201617
BAKKEN9-2023302712627133167722905928845129
BAKKEN8-2023313681136810219313749137072317
BAKKEN7-2023313938639348311594672446256332
BAKKEN6-20232730671307312875726478263930
BAKKEN5-20232965573653889337059696564063140
BAKKEN4-202310014000
  • 39210, 4,182, MRO, GT USA 11-18H, Bailey, t4/23; cum 226K 11/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20233012958129281122022001218985
BAKKEN10-2023311309913165962220234201617
BAKKEN9-2023302712627133167722905928845129
BAKKEN8-2023313681136810219313749137072317
BAKKEN7-2023313938639348311594672446256332
BAKKEN6-20232730671307312875726478263930
BAKKEN5-20232965573653889337059696564063140
BAKKEN4-202310014000

Well of interest:

  • 16666, 502, MRO, Bob Tuhy 44-19H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 518K 2/23; off line 3/23; back on line 11/23 for 11 days; apparently no jump in production;

Maps:


Biggest Investing Story Yesterday? Travelers -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46591INV.

In all the excitement and all the chatter yesterday, I simply ran out of time to talk about Travelers. 

I think Travelers was the biggest investment story yesterday, even bigger than the all-time highs for the major indices, and the continued surge in technology stocks. 

Ticker:

Other stories:

Look at that net income!

And then read why? That's the big story. That will hold true for all insurance companies. I'm looking at you, Geico.

My Favorite Chart Updated Overnight -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46590MMF.

For the archives: the US stock market was in the doldrums the first two weeks of January. On January 19, 2024, the market surged, all major indices hitting new all-time highs. Despite money (apparently) pouring into equities, MMF assets also continued to grow.

What an economy!

My favorite chart.

Link here.

Assets have increased -- not much -- but they have increased. 


Browsers Are Dead! Long Live Browsers! Vision Pro -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46589APPLE.

Tag: Vision Pro.

The Vision Pro is not even released yet -- but it's close -- and already folks are noting how things might change.

This is for the archives. A nice preview of what we might see. 

Could this affect you? If you don't know, imagine deleting all your "app icons." That should answer the question.

My hunch: Apple has been working this issue for several years.

From the linked article over at The Verge:

But what if you don’t need the App Store to reach Apple users anymore? All this corporate infighting has the potential to completely change the way we use our devices, starting with the Vision Pro.
It’s not like you can’t use Spotify on the headset; it’s just that instead of tapping a Spotify app icon, you’ll have to go to Spotify.com. Same for YouTube, Netflix, and every other web app that opts not to build something native for the Vision Pro. And for gamers, whether you want to use Xbox Game Pass or just play Fortnite, you’ll also need a browser.
Over the last decade or so, we’ve all stopped opening websites and started tapping app icons, but the age of the URL might be coming back. 
If you believe the open web is a good thing, and that developers should spend more time on their web apps and less on their native ones, this is a big win for the future of the internet. (Disclosure: I believe all these things.) The problem is, it’s happening after nearly two decades of mobile platforms systematically downgrading and ignoring their browsing experience.
You can create homescreen bookmarks, which are just shortcuts to web apps, but those web apps don’t have the same access to offline modes, cross-app collaboration, or some of your phone’s other built-in features. After all this time, you still can’t easily run browser extensions on mobile Safari or mobile Chrome. Apple also makes it maddeningly complicated just to stay logged in to the services you use on the web across different apps. Mobile platforms treat browsers like webpage viewers, not app platforms, and it shows.

What makes this more troublesome from my view: there are indications that Apple felt pressure to release the Vision Pro even if it wasn't quite ready for prime time.

European De-Industrialization -- The Road To Germany -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46588GERMANY.

Google what's wrong with Germany to see how bad things are going for Germany.

From themes 2023

From today on twitter:

Barron's Roundtable -- Market Hits An All-Time High -- 27 Picks For The New Year -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46587INV.

This roundtable met on January 8, 2024, before the market hit that all-time high. On January 8, 2024, the market was still in the doldrums. It would be interesting what the participants in this roundtable might say now.

Link here.

Some mentioned that caught my eye:

  • FANG
  • ON Semiconductor
  • META
  • Biogen

I was surprised by the paucity of tech companies on the list. Eight of the 27 were high-yield tax-free income funds and investment grade bonds.

But the list did not change my "bucket" list.

Since 1991 -- Thirty-Two Years Ago? January 20, 2024

Locator: 46586ECON.

Link here.

Biggest two-month increase since 1991.

What are they upbeat about?

Flashback -- October, 2022 -- Posted January 20, 2024

Locator: 46585INV.

Link here.

Wasn't energy one of the worst, if not the worst, sector in 2023?

Where was AI?

And these were the experts.

Re-Posting: EV Bloodbath Continues -- Barron's -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46584EVS.

Themes, 2024, link here:

EVs: have lost their luster

  • 2024 was to have been the break-out year for EVs
  • high interest rates and the long UAW strike will push this transition out at least another three years (2027)
  • it's obvious that EVs are luxury cars, and Americans are subsidizing rich folks to buy luxury cars
  • state governments will realize that lost gasoline tax revenue is a huge problem for highway maintenance, much less new highways

Updates

Saturday, January 20, 2024: link here (warning: sarcasm alert) --

Saturday, January 20, 2024: link here ---

From the linked article:

Tesla is on the cusp of an ignominious record. If shares close lower on Friday, it will be the tenth trading day of losses out of the first 12—the worst start of any year in Tesla’s history.
Shares fell nine out of the first 12 trading days to start 2015 and 2016. Still, Tesla’s recent performance looks absolutely glowing compared with some peers. Shares of Chinese EV makers NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto were off 4.5%, 4.1%, and 3%, respectively, in Friday trading.
For January so far, NIO shares were down 34%, while XPeng dropped 35%, and Li shares were down 25%.
There isn’t much new to pin Friday’s declines on. Instead it’s a continuation of a significant theme: Chinese EV price wars that have weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

Original Post 

Disruptive:

Tesla: All major EV auto manufacturers were down today, including GM, F, Tesla, Polestar, Lucid, Rivan, some significantly. From Barron's

The US Army:

My take from the Barron's article: this is all to be expected. It's a learning curve. Deal with it. 

Frankly, I'm getting tired of that attitude.

Contrarian Thought -- January 20, 2024

Locator: 46603FORD.

I think it's just possible that Ford might have some incredible earnings this year, perhaps as early as 2Q24. The number of new Broncos and Rangers being seen in the DFW area seems to be striking. 

We still see a lot of Teslas in this area, but the number does not seem to be increasing.

Link here.

But the most noticeable vehicle in the DFW area, without question, is the Jeep. I've never seen so many new Jeeps on the roads in north Texas as I seem to be seeing now.

Vs DAL:




See this post from 2020.