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Thursday, January 11, 2024

Daily Activity Report; One Well Of Interest With Small Halo Effect -- January 11, 2024

Locator: 46519B.

WTI: $73.02.

Active rigs: 38.

Two new permits, #40448 - #40449, inclusive:

  • Operators: EOG, Empire North Dakota
  • Fields: Stanley (Mountrail); Starbuck (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
    • EOG has a permit for a Blueberry well, SESE 29-155-90, 
      • to be sited 690 FSL and 450 FEL; and,
    • Empire North Dakota has a permit for an Eagle well, NWSE 29-161-78, 
      • to be sited 2030 FSL and 1687 FEL

Four permits renewed:

  • Whiting: four State Federal permits, Bully oil field; McKenzie County;

One permit canceled:

  • 36784, Whiting, USA Federal 6A-HU, McKenzie County;

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37327, 1,660, SOGC (Sinclair), Porcupine 4-19H, Little Knife -- note correct NDIC file number -- 37327; see initial production below.
  • 39453, 426, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 3-2H,
  • 39713, 342, Petro-Hunt, Dudley Dawson 148-103-2B-11-2H,
  • 39911, 1,166, CLR, Hegler 11-12HSL1,
  • 39912, 1,271, CLR, Hegler 11-13HSL1,

The Sinclair Porcupine well:

  • 37327, 1,660, SOGC (Sinclair), Porcupine 4-19H, Little Knife -- note correct NDIC file number -- 37327;  
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20231631024300664022352334052274

Well of interest:

  • 19520, 1,038, SOGC, Hovden Federal 1-20H, Little Knife, t3/11; cum 295K 11/23; recent production, note halo effect:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2023308000787129600525005137
BAKKEN10-2023610344424830147531449
BAKKEN9-2023112250400
BAKKEN8-2023293516400163234365420752
BAKKEN7-2023314228417479674864470443
BAKKEN6-202330419642818619509124862492
BAKKEN5-202326288522437218359303495
BAKKEN4-20231641165315234970437
BAKKEN3-202316121011412858144601374
BAKKEN2-202314201125107040269002637
BAKKEN1-2023304574388019492633306220
BAKKEN12-2022445001500
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-202231604562171320121
BAKKEN9-20221164445310973810340
BAKKEN8-2022312030758047
BAKKEN7-20222685811291000158501487
BAKKEN6-202230131010931310200001887
BAKKEN5-202231107613551457207901962

Depression, Unhappiness, Sadness -- January 11, 2024

 Locator: 46518B.

Watching to a late-night show -- a re-run from decades ago -- it was mentioned in passing that after one's teenage years, one generally becomes more unhappy as the years go by, reaching the nadir at -- specifically -- age 52, or maybe it was age 53, the host stated -- so, I decide to look into this. 

The late night television host was probably 50 years old when he made the comment suggesting he was struggling with his own unhappiness/depression, and was perhaps seeking treatment. If so, the therapist may have reassured the "patient" that it was not uncommon for someone at 50 years of age to be particularly unhappy, sad, depressed. 

Link here.

The charts/graphs:



I am in my early 70's -- 72 to be exact, 73 later this summer -- and ... wow, look at the graph immediately above, paying particular attention to the second "up" arrow in the lower right-hand corner.

Market -- AVGO In The News -- January 11, 2024

Locator: 46517INV.

On that news, AVGO surged almost $20 / share.

How did Nvidia do?

And Warren Buffett? Reading all those 10-Ks:

***********************
The Book Page

Why was Measure for Measure set in Vienna?

Through studying The Merchant of Venice and Measure for Measure I have a much better understanding of the Puritans.

Think of the Puritans that came to America in the 16th century as strict Islamists, such as the Taliban, or perhaps even orthodox Jews. That's all I need to know. Now, it makes sense.

The Biggest Story Of The Day -- No, Not Belichick -- January 11, 2024

Locator: 46516EVS.

From earlier today:

Bitcoin ETFs: approved by SEC. Think back on comments by Jamie Dimon and Charlie Munger. On wrong side of history. Huge day for ARKK. Cathie Wood on a roll: could put gig economy on steroids. 
Cathie Wood continues to defend Tesla despite recent decision by Hertz to downsize its Tesla inventory, to sell one-third of its EV inventory. Cathie Wood was disingenuous when responding to the Hertz development. Cathie Wood says it's all about educating the American population. There is a huge difference among a) riding in an Uber Tesla and b) buying a Tesla and c) renting a Tesla. I won't do "a, b, or c." Rich folks will pay up for an Uber Tesla, but except for niche situations, EVs have lost their luster. I can't even imagine taking a chance driving from north Texas to Flathead Lake in Montana in January in a Tesla: 1,771 miles divided by 300 mile-range = six (6) re-charging stops each direction. 
 
Joe Keenan calls GM’s EV division a joke — says GM sold one EV in period when Tesla sold 100’s of thousands: some hyperbole but sentiment in right place. Fact check here. Not as bad as Joe suggests. Actually worse when you dig through the numbers. And then there’s the “snow problem.”
The biggest story. today, without a doubt, and somewhat underplayed by CNBC and completey dismissed by Cathie Wood was the announcement that Hertz rental will sell one-third of their EV inventory and use the proceeds to ... drum roll ... buy ICE vehicles


Holy mackerel.

This pretty much confirms the EV story.

Link here to The WSJ which minces no words with regard to this debacle. From the linked article:
The move is the latest example of a swift retrenchment by the car business on EVs. After years spent outlining aggressive expansion plans, automakers in recent months have put some EV projects on ice and dialed back production forecasts, citing signs that U.S. consumers aren’t ready to move to cars powered exclusively by batteries as quickly as once thought. The car industry’s effort to sell consumers more broadly on EVs has run into some resistance lately as automakers have largely exhausted the pool of early adopters who tend to be willing to take a chance on new technology.

EV sales in the U.S. increased last year but the pace of growth has slowed. Car buyers are worried there won’t be enough places to plug in or their travel will be too limited by battery range, surveys show. High prices also are turning off consumers.

Hertz shares fell about 4% in afternoon trading Thursday. Tesla shares were down about 2.7%.

Hertz signaled its big push into EVs in 2021, with a surprise move to eventually purchase 100,000 Tesla EVs. The Estero, Fla., company, which months earlier had emerged from bankruptcy, pegged part of its turnaround story to the effort to broaden electric choices for customers.

“Electric vehicles are now mainstream, and we’ve only just begun to see rising global demand and interest,” said Mark Fields, a former Ford Motor chief executive, who was then serving as Hertz’s interim CEO. Hertz’s stock rose 10% that day, and helped send Tesla’s valuation above $1 trillion for the first time.

Hertz pushed further into EVs under its current CEO Stephen Scherr who took over in February of 2022. A few weeks later, the company said it agreed to buy 65,000 cars from Swedish EV manufacturer Polestar.

Stories We'll Be Talking About Today -- January 11, 2024

Locator: 46515B.

Comes in three: Saban (Alabama), Carroll (Seattle), and now -- just breaking now -- Belichick out as head coach at New England Patriots. Widely predicted 24 hours ago over on twitter.

Michael Novogratz: on CNBC -- excellent. I agree with him completely on his statements on Trump, Biden. Nice to hear someone talk plainly.

CPI, December numbers: 0.3% vs 0.2% m/m; 3.9% for y/y; best since 2020 or thereabouts; ex-food and energy m/m came in exactly as estimated, 0.3% vs 0.3%; y/y 3.4% vs 3.2%. Core CPI 3.9% y/y vs 3.8% y/y. Everything right in line. Dow goes from slightly positive to slightly negative. Jobs data unremarkable: 202K vs 210K estimated, first time claims. See this note for further discussion. By noon, this will be old news. Especially since numbers are in line with expectations. 

  • Steve Liesman:
    • trajectory is not a straight line
    • in December, a reversal of some gains last month
    • rental (homes): still a problem
  • others
    • Fed won't cut rates "sooner"; most analysts, it seems, suggest Fed will "stand pat"
    • average credit card carries balance of $4,000 (hard to believe but if accurate Americans are paying a lot of interest on a monthly basis)
    • "we" need to see a lot more "goods" deflation before "see" relief on inflation numbers
    • "services" inflation vs "goods" inflation
    • "everybody" talks cost of groceries; real cost concerns for Americans: price of automobiles. 
      • it's one thing to complain about turkey at $1.19 / pound when it was $0.99 / pound -- Americans can "handle" that, but a $50,000 car today vs a $30,000 car two years ago? Same with housing. In other words, talking heads on CNBC are giving auto manufacturers a pass while complaining about cost of groceries.

CNBC: US equity markets are all green an hour before CPI data is to be reported. My hunch? Lots of volatility today.

Bitcoin ETFs: approved by SEC. Think back on comments by Jamie Dimon and Charlie Munger. On wrong side of history.

Huge day for ARKK. Cathie Wood on a roll: could put gig economy on steroids. 
Continues to defend Tesla despite recent decision by Hertz to downsize its Tesla inventory, to sell one-third of its EV inventory. Cathie Wood was disingenuous when responding to the Hertz development. Cathie Wood says it's all about educating the American population. There is a huge difference among a) riding in an Uber Tesla and b) buying a Tesla and c) renting a Tesla. I won't do "a, b, or c." Rich folks will pay up for an Uber Tesla, but except for niche situations, EVs have lost their luster. I can't even imagine taking a chance driving from north Texas to Flathead Lake in Montana in January in a Tesla: 1,771 miles divided by 300 mile-range = six (6) re-charging stops each direction. 
Joe Keenan calls GM’s EV division a joke — says GM sold one EV in period when Tesla sold 100’s of thousands: some hyperbole but sentiment in right place. Fact check here. Not as bad as Joe suggests. Actually worse when you dig through the numbers. And then there’s the “snow problem.”

10-Year: drops below 4% prior to CPI data; after data comes out, 10-year goes just above 4% -- barely.

SCCO: down this past week but up 12% in the past month. 

AAPL: appears to have stabilized at $186. Headlines remain "negative." What did Buffett say?  "Be greedy when others are fearful; be fearful when others are greedy."

BA: may have stabilized; y/y still a 20% gain.

Folks may want to take a look at that last post on the blog last night. Today, even before the day's news cycle has begun:

  • state of Maine begins paying rent for undocumented tourists; $3.5 million for 60 families; link here.
    • works out to $58,333 / family; with 4 electoral votes, Maine is considered blue.
    • and ten folks wonder why these tourists take the bus or plane from Texas to New England;
    • that's why I'm not worried about US economy; so much money sloshing around out there, even Maine an afford upwards of $60,000 for each undocumented tourist and family.
    • it's just beginning; imagine what NYC and Chicago are paying
    • a lot of hoteliers must be making money "hand over fist," for their o/w money-losing properties
  • Iran boarding a ship in the Red Sea is the number one story (by far) on twitter this morning;
  • PAA just increased its quarterly dividend by almost 20%, from 26.75 cents to 31.75 cents (need to fact check); link here; and, here; at this link says PAA now pays 8.2%;
  • OXY / Buffett: being reported: Buffett has made another huge purchase of OXY; raising stakes to 34% of OXY; up from 27.7%; there’s a difference between buying an equity position in a company (you and me)  and buying the company (him).
  • NVID up $12 yesterday; pre-market today, up another $7; Nvidia cannot be stopped. In past month, NVID up 17%.
  • MSFT: up $7 yesterday; pre-market today, up another $2.00; Microsoft closing in on Apple's market cap record. MSFT up 3% in past month, trailing the broader market. MSFT does edge out AAPL on market cap.
  • OXY: in past month, down 0.5%; S&P up 3.5% in past month.
  • Chesapeake to buy Southwestern (SWN); the latter falls on that news; note: this is not Southwest Gas (SWX).
  • Germany de-industrializing: link here to one of the best -- Bjorn Lomborg.
  • Bloomberg's letter today: the flood of US LNG about to hit the market; link here
    • will go on for decades
    • only thing that can slow this down: "greenies" in Biden's administration
    • will look at "climate change" issue when considering permits for new export facilities
    • Stap reported this yesterday;

 
Quick note
: recent OXY buy by Buffett suggests:

  • Buffett still sees huge risk of recession this year; and/or,
  • he sees OXY way, way undervalued; or,
  • he’s “buying” the company (just joking).

Buffett, OXY, from Barron's:

Occidental shares closed Wednesday at $56.80, down 1.2%, its lowest closing price of 2024.
The stock has fallen more than 3% so far this week amid a selloff in energy stocks with crude oil down more than $2 a barrel to about $71.25 a barrel (based on WTI crude).
Occidental pointed 1.6% higher ahead of the open Thursday as investors digested the news that Berkshire has increased its holding.
As a holder of more than 10% of Occidental stock, Berkshire must file with the Securities and Exchange Commission within two business days of a purchase or sale of Occidental stock.
There was heavier-than-usual volume of more than 10 million shares of Occidental stock on Monday, above the roughly 8.5 million shares Wednesday.

Buffett, 3Q23: link here. Previously reported. It's reported that Buffett likes dividends; note dividend payout for OXY vs CVX.

Monetizing streaming companies: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.78. Up almost 2%; up $1.41.

Friday, January 12, 2024: 13 for the month; 13 for the quarter, 13 for the year
39884, conf, Kraken, Kisner 24-13-12 3H,

Thursday, January 11, 2024: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter, 12 for the year
39721, conf, Falcon Midstream Services, Cheryl 3,
38302, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot 23 7H,

RBN Energy: acquisition of Calllon Petroleum gives APA much deeper roots in the Permian.

Permian this and Permian that. For several years now, acreage and production in that sprawling, crude-oil-focused shale play in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico have been at the center of so much M&A activity. And the deals keep coming! Just last week, APA Corp. — the international E&P formerly known as Apache — announced that it will be acquiring Callon Petroleum, which in recent years has become a Permian pure play with significant holdings in both the Delaware and Midland basins. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the APA/Callon deal, the drivers behind it, and why the acquisition makes sense for both companies.