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Sunday, January 7, 2024

Scoville Units

Locator: 46485HEAT.



Relates to story in The WSJ.





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Blue Skies From Now On -- January 7, 2024

Locator: 46484INV.


EPD: raises quarterly dividend to 51.50 cents; was 50 cents. Paying 7.72% vs 7.49%. Perfect for a tax-free account. Yes. And even in retirement there are tax-free options for almost anyone.


Highlights:

  • spending bill to prevent US government shutdown near vote? Check!
    • no mention of "border security" in CNBC story unless I missed it
    • puts the southern surge story in perspective
  • Israel wrapping up operations in northern Gaza? Check!
  • BRK / Pilot won't go to trial? Trial "canceled." Check!
  • Apple CEO Tim Cook to meet with DOJ? Check!
  • US equity markets stabilizing? Check! [That didn’t last long. Monday morning — WTI dropping— but then again, it’s Monday.]
  • WTI trending toward $74? Check!
  • Libya's NOC declares force majeure? Check!
  • Standard Chartered: oil demand growth to remain robust in 2024 and 2025. Check!
    • Standard Chartered have predicted that oil demand growth in the current year will clock in at a robust 1.54 mb/d and 1.41 mb/d in 2025
    • StanChart has forecast that global oil demand growth in 2024-2025 will remain above the longer-term average
    • the analysts have predicted that global monthly demand will move above 104 mb/d for the first time ever in August 2024 before eclipsing 105 mb/d in August 2025. 
  • great for Main Street? 



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The BR Manchester Wells In Little Knife Oil Field

Locator: 46483BR.

The wells:

  • 39974, conf, BR, Crying Man 2A-ULW, Little Knife,
  • 39975, conf, BR, Manchester 2A, Little Knife,
  • 39976, conf, BR, Manchester 2B, Little Knife,
  • 39977, conf, BR, Manchester 2D, Little Knife,
  • 30433, conf, BR, Manchester 2C, Little Knife,
  • 39978, conf, BR, Manchester 2E, Little Knife,
  • 22204, 2,040, BR, Manchester 24-9MBH, Little Knife, t1/15; cum 363K 11/23;
  • 19043, 314, BR, Manchester 34-9H, Little Knife,
  • 37876, conf, BR, Manchester 1A, Little Knife,
  • 33070, conf, BR, Mancord 14-10 MBH-ULW, Little Knife,
  • 37877, conf, BR, Concord 1C, Little Knife,

One map. Maybe more later.

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Computer Chip Factories In The News: Colorado Springs, CO; Gresham, OR -- East Of Portland -- January 7, 2024

Locator: 46482CHIPS.

Updates

January 8, 2024: link here.

Original Post 

Link here. 

Why Colorado? Why Oregon? Microchip Technology at wiki. Ticker (MCHP): one year looks volatile; 5-year looks good. Recently raised dividend.


From the linked article:
The Biden administration is providing $162 million to Microchip Technology to support the domestic production of computer chips — the second funding announcement tied to a 2022 law designed to revive U.S. semiconductor manufacturing.
The incentives include $90 million to improve a plant in Colorado Springs, Colorado, and $72 million to expand a factory in Gresham, Oregon, the Commerce Department said. The investments would enable Microchip Technology to triple its domestic production and reduce its dependence on foreign factories.

Map: Gresham, Oregon -- Microchip Technology facility in relationship to general area where Judah and Levi live. Whoo-hoo!

 

***********************
Chips

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

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It's Not Lying Until It's Discovered -- Januuary 7, 2024

Locator: 46481EVRANGE.

46480TESLA.

Ask the former Harvard president, lying is not a problem until it's a problem.

Now, it's Tesla. Link here.

From the linked article:

  • Tesla has lowered the range estimates across several Model Y, S, and X vehicles in the US, reducing the figure on certain trims by up to six percent.
  • Model Y: as reported by Electrek, Tesla’s online configurator now displays an estimated range of 285 miles for the Model Y’s Performance trim, down 18 miles from its previous 303-mile estimate.
  • The Model Y Long Range is down to 310 miles from 330 while the Model X’s Plaid has dropped from 333 miles to 326
  • Model S Plaid estimates have also been updated — more specifically, the configuration with 19-inch wheels which has fallen from 396 miles to 359. [In other words, from "400" to "350" or a downgrade from a 4-handle to a 3-handle.]
  • These changes have not been made to Tesla’s UK and EU listings, and ranges across other vehicles like the Cybertruck, Model 3, and the Model Y Rear-Wheel Drive remain unaffected.

Now, it's all about the size of the wheels.

Link here. Range loss over time.

******************************************
Understanding EV Charging

Re-posting.

Locator: 45415B. 

 Updates

December 10, 2023: F-150 Lightning update.

December 10, 2023: EV chargers -- nice update.

August 27, 2023: tech writer for The WSJ buys an EV for the family. The "buying experience" here at "YouTube." Exactly why EVs will not catch on for a long, long time. 

Original Post

I know very little about cars or car engines, but when shopping for a new car, all I need to know is mpg. One number. Okay, two: city / highway.
  • I never ask about range
  • I never ask about the kind of pump I need to use
I know nothing about electricity and nothing about EVs, but when shopping for a new car, I need to know:
  • type of connector
  • type of charging station 
  • the size of the tire which affects range
  • range on a fully charged battery (see below)
    • a very cold day
    • a “normal” day
    • a very hot day
  • level charging station: level 1, 2, or 3
  • how long does it take to fully charge the vehicle
  • how do I know when it is optimally charged? What is the optimal charging range?
  • advertised range vs actual range (this is more relevant than you will ever realize until after you’ve bought the car);
This is how I understand it (right, wrong, or indifferent) now. This is how I would explain it to Sophia, subject to editing, correcting, and adding more information as I get a better understanding and as technology, batteries, charging stations evolve over time.

The links:
This is the most important graphic. It doesn't require any understanding of anything; just keep the graphic in you mind. 


What to note in the graph:
  • the left side of the graph/chart: 
  • the charging stations you see in parking lots around town
  • measured in kW (you don't even have to know what a kW is -- just know that's how EV charging station ports are "rated;
  • in the example: one charging port is rated at 7.5 kW; the other charting port is rated at 60 kW
  • some existing ports are now rated higher than 60 kW
  • as time goes on, the ratings will increase in size (power)the right side of the chart:
    • this is your car, your EV
    • when you talk to your dealer or to you friend, you will ask about / talk about the "size of the battery" or the "battery's energy" -- or whatever the phrase is
    • if you don't have much money, the EV you buy will have a battery with a lower energy rating, such as 15 kWh in this example;
    • if you are rich, you will be able to afford an EV with a "bigger battery" -- such as 120 kWh in this example
    • like most things in life (but not golf scores), bigger is better
    • buy the "biggest" EV you can afford
Charging: in the graph above -- 
  • when you pull into a charging station, the greater the rating of the charging station, in this case 7.5 vs 56, the faster you can charge your EV
  • so, why doesn't everyone just plug into the the charging port / station with the higher / highest rating, 56 in this case
  • you can't plug your cheap little EV into a charging station that has too much power for your little pathetic EV
  • so, in the example above, if your pathetic little EV is rated at 15 kWh, it cannot plug into a charging unit with a higher rating. 
  • so, in the example above, you can only plug your 15-kWh-rated pathetic little EV into the 7.5-kW-rated charging port / station
And that's all you need to know.

Except for this, in the graph above: the small print.
In the graphic above, the bigger car rated at 120kWh pulls up to the charging unit rated at 60kW. The car takes a charge for two hours. Two (2) hrs x 60 kW = 120 kWh which is what the bigger car in the graph above is rated. 
So, a "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh can be fully charged in two hours if plugged into a charger rated at 60 kW.

If that "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh pulls into a charging station rated at 7.5 kW, it will take .... 120 / 7.5  = 16 hours to fully charge.

Okay, so that's all you need to know.

But there's a lot more one can know if one is interested.

We shouldn't have to say this but an EV rated at 120 kWH can "last longer" (longer range, all things being equal) than a pathetic little EV rated at 15 kWh.
 
*******************************
Charging Stations
Level 1 vs level 2 vs level 3 charging stations
 
Level 1
  • 120 volts — AC
  • your garage
  • absolutely worthless
Level 2
  • 240 volts — AC
  • can be installed in your garage
  • In the Target parking lot
  • at 60 kW, two hours to “achieve” 120 kWh, so four hours to fully charge a soccer mom’s SUV
Level 3
  • 480 volts — DC
  • not at your house, ever

************************
Connectors
 
Connector type: non-Tesla
  • J1772: level 1 and level 2
  • CCS1: level 3
NCAS for all Tesla models: link here.

***************************
Miscellaneous

Other facts / factoids / opinions / comments:
  • hybrids are fake EVs -- they are the worst thing one can buy in the "EV family" but Ford is now transitioning to hybrids ... more on that later. Ford will sell a lot of hybrids, as well as Toyota will sell a lot of hybrids. That's good for the car companies but bad for you; really bad for the roads (but you won't care about that); and really, really, bad for the environment (again, something you won't care about. You will be happy just knowing that you are part of the EV community).
  • Ford is "going all out" with hybrids. Link here.
  • charging stations prone to “breaking down”; generally, outside of big cities, if the charging station you visit is “out of order,” you are really “out of luck.” If you thought running out of gas is bad, you haven’t experienced the seventh level of hell until you experience a dead battery and a broken charging unit.
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Tea Leaves Suggest Three Things: US Electricity, Natural Gas, And Oil Demand Will Surge Through The Next Decade -- January 7, 2024

Locator: 46480ENERGY.

Themes: 2024.

AI will drive electricity demand.

Electricity demand will drive natural gas demand.

Deglobalization will drive US crude oil demand. 

***********************
The Bakken Effect

From Geoff Simon's weekly North Dakota top energy stories

Basin Electric is looking at new generation capacity likely to be needed by 2030.
Because of member load growth in western North Dakota, a Basin Electric team will begin to investigate building a new generation facility.
The team is looking at the potential of an additional natural gas-fueled power plant to be located within the Southwest Power Pool footprint in western North Dakota, to be completed close to the year 2030.
Dispatchable generation is critical to keeping electricity reliable. The grid needs facilities to power up when electricity is needed, and ramp up or down to meet the needs of electricity users, to maintain the integrity of the transmission grid.
Matt Ehrman, Basin's VP of Engineering and Construction, said because a lead time of several years is required for environmental permitting, equipment purchases and other tasks, investigation now is important.

***************************
AI, EV, And Electricity Dispatchability

Link to Barron's. 


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GDP Per Capita By State -- January 7, 2024

Locator: 46479ECON.

Link here.

For the complete list, go to the link.


Per capita, global, North Dakota would rank #8, between the Cayman Islands and Switzerland. Others:

  • Qatar: #9
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Winter "Colds" -- It Looks Serious -- Barron's -- January 7, 2024

Locator: 46478CREDIBLE.

Link here. The story at the link does not support the headline.

Let's look at the data:



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FCS Championship -- Airing Now -- ABC -- January 7, 2024

Locator: 46477SPORTS.

Final: 23 - 3. A defensive battle but SDSU was just too good, despite turnovers.

Minutes later, still the third quarter, SDSU is control; has the ball again, near the red zone.

  • SDSU (#1): 20
  • Montana (#2): 3

Midway through the third quarter:

  • SDSU (#1): 20
  • Montana (#2): 3

Second quarter, early:

  • SDSU (#1): 7
  • Montana (#2): 3
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Global Warming Slams Oslo -- Norway -- January 7, 2024

Locator: 46476GW.

Submitted by Greta, Germany's laser-focused agenda to stop global warming is working:


For the Bakken, -30°C (-22°F) is sweater weather.

Link here. 



North Texas? Short-sleeve weather. Daughter Kiri on her paddleboard on Grapevine Lake this weekend.

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The Chord-Oasis Bergem Wells In Tobacco Garden

Locator: 46475B.

Twelve years ago XTO drilled the first Bergem well which held the lease by production. The XTO parent well was #20719 (see below). 

Oasis (Chord) established a six-well pad to the south and those wells are now starting to report production (see below). These are very nice wells.

From the NDIC:

The wells:

  • 20719,890, XTO, Bergem 44-28NWH, spud 8/11, the parent well; short lateral, sited in section 28, bottom hole, near south line in section 21; t11/11; cum 158K 11/23; with small halo effect (see below)
  • 39052, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 5B, Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20233792252515
10-20234122056908
9-20233683647831
8-20233750341126
  • 39054, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 7B, Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20233837050778
10-20233584047030
9-20233450043084
8-20233748141215
  • 39053, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 6T, Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232163627335
10-20232940338435
9-20232588333841
8-20232740230996
  • 39050:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20233187240972
10-20233265141847
9-20233450644641
8-20233017936817
  • 39049:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20234011852333
10-20233673647263
9-20233465644336
8-20233484247437

***************************
The Small Halo Effect In The Parent Bergem Well

The well:

  • 20719, 890, XTO, Bergem 44-28NWH, spud 8/11, the parent well; short lateral, sited in section 28, bottom hole, near south line in section 21; t11/11; cum 158K 11/23; with small halo effect
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20239872725131721010
BAKKEN10-2023221195904265921161382533
BAKKEN9-20230000000
BAKKEN8-20230000000
BAKKEN7-20230000000
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20232545164020279964011
BAKKEN3-2023316915632081223649285
BAKKEN2-2023288538202011509634618
BAKKEN1-2023400052500
BAKKEN12-2022243545771066894830
BAKKEN11-202230671573421188720188
BAKKEN10-20223151463625811889120
BAKKEN9-202230669623331118595248
BAKKEN8-20223135828720410899000
BAKKEN7-2022315256221819587670

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Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential This Next Week -- January 7, 2024

Locator: 46474B.

The wells:

  • 39659, conf, EOG, Blueberry 2919-02H, Stanley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2023124377922
10-20231848610534
9-20232195811318
8-20233178015466
7-20231874011835
  • 39658, conf, EOG, Blueberry 2919-01H, Stanley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231704511072
10-20232041411192
9-20232320112143
8-20233364915786
7-20231923211485
  • 39052, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 5B, Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20233792252515
10-20234122056908
9-20233683647831
8-20233750341126
  • 38161, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 6-1-17MBH, North Fork, npd,
  • 39887, conf, Kraken Deacon 19-18-7 2H, Burg, npd,
  • 38160, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 7-1-117TFH, North Fork, npd,
  • 37344, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot 23-11 6TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231928621996
10-20232303323052
9-20232381320480
8-20232533322593
7-20231113110925
  • 35366, conf, Enerplus, Koala 152-994-23CH, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231228867517
10-20231372932767
9-20231999835776
8-20234956467477
7-20231761517591
  • 39888, conf, Kraken, Deacon 19-18-7-3H, Burg, npd,
  • 39054, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 7B, Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20233837050778
10-20233584047030
9-20233450043084
8-20233748141215
  • 39053, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 6T, Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232163627335
10-20232940338435
9-20232588333841
8-20232740230996
  • 38159, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 7-1-17TFH, North Fork, npd,
  • 35365, conf, Enerplus, Boomer 152-94-23CH-TF1, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232048834762
10-20233171047807
9-20235116178148
8-20233834654821
7-202373807055
  • 35364, conf, Enerplus, Joey 152-94-23CH, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231185827688
10-20231086931520
9-20231739937832
8-20232979549368
7-20231283715205
  • 39886, conf, Kraken, Deacon LW 19-18-7-12TFH, Burg, npd,
  • 38217, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 8-1-17TFH, North Fork, npd,
  • 36377, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-2, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231977431366
10-2023225044864
9-20231798021886
8-20233438652762
7-20232919744929
  • 39885, conf, Kraken, Kisner 24-13-12 4H, Greenlake, npd,
  • 36378, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-3, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231295930739
10-2023147804924
9-20231507519013
8-2023851110287
7-202363201694
  • 39884, conf, Kraken, Kisner 24-13-12 3H, Greenlake, npd,
  • 39721, conf, Falcon Midstream Services, Cheryl 3, Rosebud, npd,
  • 38302, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot 23 7H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20231176522444
10-20231616922895
9-20231510814815
8-20231428312832
7-202384107848
  • 39997, conf, Ragnar Exploration, Francisco 2-20H, Fryburg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-202329660
10-202340340
9-202312160
  • 39996, conf, Ragnar Exploration, Reardon 1-20H, Fryburg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-202314860
10-202319640
9-20232510
  • 39928, conf, Neptune Operating, Fritz 20-29-32 2H, Pronghorn,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20233644320799
  • 39927, conf, Neptune Operating, Fritz 20-29-32 3H, Pronghorn,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20233874422921
  • 39929, conf, Neptune Operating, Jacobson 17-8-5 3H, Pronghorn,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232799816909
  • 39930, conf, Neptune Operating, Jacobson 17-8-5 2H, Pronghorn,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20232657516129

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