Week 43: October 21, 2024 -- October 27, 202

Locator: 48657TOPSTORIES.

Completely unexpected: the refining stories coming out of California this past week. Reminder: this is not simply about refining oil to produce gasoline, this is about refining oil to produce California's unique CARBOB formulation. CNN: the shrinking number of oil refineries in the state .... California will likely have to source it from out-of-state (Gulf of Mexico refineries?) -- Politico. Oil and gasoline from out-of-state generally shipped in by sea. Some piped in from the north. Watch for an RBN Energy blog on this issue.

Mostly US: overriding themes going into 2025 (and beyond):

• the changing global geopolitical environment
  
• Netanyahu sees an opportunity to significantly change the dynamics in the Mideast
• amazingly, Iran says it won't retaliate if Israel limits its retaliation to strikes on military targets only; 
• WTI barely budged late this evening when Israel launched on Iran
• not even a banner headline on Drudge
  
• speaks volumes about the Iranian support for its current leader, and Netanyahu knows it
  
• "Putin, quo vadis?"
• seriously, quo vadis?
• perhaps the first "adult book" I ever read -- read it in 8th grade, along with Carl Sandburg's Lincoln (one of the volumes); and, Giants in the Earth, Ole Rølvaag 
• read the latter again a few years ago; had an even greater impact on me
• as did one of my teachers at that time, a huge impact: Ron Thue.
  
• the next president of the United States
• is this a 1964 redux -- Goldwater vs LBJ?
• the election of the "uns"? Unhinged, unstable vs unqualified, untested?
  
• the incredible energy demands of AI; 
• the demand is so high, many say we need to return to nuclear energy
  
• investing
• the NASDAQ -- and a small number of companies -- are reshaping investing
• yes, we're back to the nifty fifty, but this time, the NASDAQ is in the spotlight, not the NYSE
• to compete, the NYSE feels it needs to expand trading to 22 hours / day
• Robinhood
• crypto
• the public perceptions of the Fed's influence on US economy
  
• Covid: had a bigger, lasting effect than folks realize 
• even the most thick-headed now understand the cause of inflation 
• even if they fail to admit it
  
• genetics, also bigger than folks realize
  
• "inflation" will kill the energy transition story, if it already hasn't
  
• the economic divide between the US and the EU continues to widen
• the reason? Energy. The US has check "all the above" when it comes to energy
• retail success: 
• US corporations in the tier below the trillion-dollar market caps: will only survive by reputation for customer service
• this will extend all the way down to mom-and-pop retail stores in all but the smallest communities
  

Is the US dollar weak or strong right now?

Why was the dollar so strong in 1985?

What was the US inflation rate in 1985?

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Mountrail-Williams Electric Cooperative has seen its peak electrical demand more than double in the past 10 years, and MWEC Manager Alex Vournas believes it could double again in the next 10 years. Electricity demands in the oil patch will continue to increase, along with cryptocurrency data mining.
• Biggest risk to ND oil sector: the EPA. Even though there's a growing recognition that fossil fuel-fired generation will be needed to maintain electric reliability, Basin Electric CEO Todd Brickhouse said "regulatory risk," driven by relentless anti-fossil-fuel rules pushed by the Environmental Protection Agency, is the largest risk that Basin is currently mitigating. He said Basin has responded by pairing its all-of-the-above energy strategy with an "all-of-the-above legal strategy" to push back on EPA regulations that will affect existing operations and future construction plans.
• Basin Electric Power Cooperative is researching "nuclear." Licensing a nuclear facility is another challenge, taking 10 to 15 years.
• Minnkota's Milton R Young Station continues to expand; DOE awarded $49 million to support Project Tundra.
• Underground storage of CO2 and property rights over pore space continues to be a top story. "Amalgamation" for CO2 pore spacing is much like "pooling" in the oil sector. Attorney General Drew Wrigley, one of three members on the NDIC said the amalgamation process is only used when a supermajority (67%?) of owners want to participate.
• Measure 4: a ballot measure that would prohibit property taxes based on valuation.
• Measure 3: Legacy Fund, biennium expenditures -- max reduced from 15% (more than $1.5 bilion) to five percent (roughly $550 million).
• Measure 5: legalizes marijuana, a gateway drug.
• Wow, wow, wow: that 4-lane road from Watford City to LongX is now open. A $77 million paving project; a 12-mile project; one can do the math; not long ago, I used $1 million for a mile of pipeline; $1 million for a mile of highway.
  

Top story: 

• full US air arsenal arrives in Mideast: F-15s, F-16s, F-22s
  
• THAADS in place
• Israel strike Iran! Friday night. Sabbath.
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Ukraine: same ol', same ol'.

Top international energy story:

• 
  

Top national non-energy story:

• 10 days until the election -- swing states: PA, NC, GA
• Trump says US is "garbage can of the world." Wow. 
  

Top national energy story:

• WTI moves slightly higher; back up over $71
  

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

The market in a nutshell: At the close -- NASDAQ set another record; Tesla surprises with profit, rest of market languishes -- Boeing machinists strike continue; McDonald's E. coli outbreak; 10-year Treasury rises, spooking investors; --