China: Growing Electricity Demand Despite A Poor Economy -- October 29, 2024

Locator: 48675CHINA.

China:

• despite a incredibly poor economy (and possibly getting worse despite government stimulus) electricity demand continues to grow -- and grow significantly -- beneficiary? Coal plants.

From Bloomberg today:

Surging Chinese power demand is raising questions about whether the booming renewables sector can keep pace and what that means for targets to cap greenhouse gas emissions.

The country’s coal plants are the largest contributors to global warming, and robust electricity use is prolonging their lifespan even as the nation adds record amounts of wind and solar. Thermal generation is up 1.9% through September from a year earlier — although that would be much higher without clean energy picking up the slack.

During the same period, electricity consumption increased 7.9%, the highest since the post-Covid manufacturing boom of 2021. That year, the rise in demand was matched by strong growth, but this time the electron feast comes as the country struggles with a downbeat economy.

Power and growth have long been connected. Electricity usage, rail freight and bank lending comprise the Li Keqiang Index — named after a comment by the former premier that those metrics provided a more accurate reflection of the economy than reported gross domestic product figures.

Demand is on track to outperform GDP for a fifth straight year.

China is second only to Japan among major economies for electrification rates. Power accounted for 28% of its energy consumption in 2022, compared with 11% in 2000, as heating and transportation electrify. That puts more pressure on coal but is still good for the climate because it replaces less efficient fossil-fuel use.

The danger for the climate is new demand sources such as data centers and cooling. Manufacturing of air conditioners jumped 15% in China last year after record heat in 2022, while September’s hot weather sent residential energy use surging.

No one wants to deprive people of lifesaving cooling during more-frequent bouts of extreme heat. But if Chinese consumers keep guzzling electricity at this pace, it will mean the clean-energy revolution has even more work to do than previously believed.

And, of course, we haven't even mentioned India.