This Week's Tech / NASDAQ -- "The Wrecking Crew" -- October 31, 2024

Locator: 48688MUSIC.

Hal Blaine.

Wiki.

When I read Hal Blaine's bio and read through the list of songs for which he was the drummer, I come away wondering what in the world Yuval Noah Hahari was thinking when he wrote his "ground-breaking" Sapiens and then a followup Nexus. But I digress. 

Back to Hal Blaine.

Hal Blaine (born Harold Simon Belsky; February 5, 1929 – March 11, 2019) was an American drummer and session musician, thought to be among the most recorded studio drummers in the music industry, claiming over 35,000 sessions and 6,000 singles. His drumming is featured on 150 US top 10 hits, 40 of which went to number one.

Born in Holyoke, Massachusetts, Blaine moved with his family to California in 1943 and began playing jazz and big band music before taking up rock and roll session work. He became one of the regulars in Phil Spector's de facto house band, which Blaine nicknamed "the Wrecking Crew."

Some of the records Blaine played on include the Ronettes' single "Be My Baby" (1963), which contained a drum beat that became widely imitated, as well as works by popular artists such as Frank Sinatra, Elvis Presley, the Beach Boys, Simon & Garfunkel, the Carpenters, Neil Diamond, and the Byrds.

When you get to the wiki site, scroll down to "Selected Performances" and scroll through that list. 

You can find video footage of Blaine on YouTube -- one of the better was the studio session with the Beach Boys recording "Good Vibrations." 

Outside of studio sessions Blaine seldom worked for any time with any given performer. There were two exceptions: Nancy Sinatra in Las Vegas and on tour with John Denver. 

Worcester Magazine, March 20, 2019.  Link here.

Six New Permits; Four BR Permits Canceled -- October 31, 2024

Locator: 48687B.

EV headlines today:

• Ford to halt F-150 Lightning production as EV demand wanes. Better said, "... pause production...," not halt production.
• Slow sales force Stellantis to "hit brakes" on SUV production. Link here. This is the company that promised us a sub-$30,000 SUV sooner than later. That was about a year ago; haven't heard a thing since. Pausing production of the Durango and the Grand Cherokee.
• Ford took an early lead in EVs; now GM is surging. NY Times.
• Ford to halt production of F-150 Lightning EV pickup trucks for six weeks. Reuters.
• Ford CEO loves his Chinese EV. National Review.
  

Dividends increased:

• COP (but somewhat disingenuous).
• ABBV.

Nvidia blades: blazing saddles? Beth:

Magnificent Seven absolutely impossible to keep up with:

• who is partnering with whom, and how those partnerships are changing; and,
• tactical decisions vs strategic decisions. 

For investors, several ways to invest in the magnificent seven:

• invest in individual tickers;
• invest in QQQ
• invest in ETFs like SCHB or SCHG

I've chosen the third option.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.52.

Active rigs: 39.

Six new permits, #41297 - #41302, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess (3); MRO (2); and, Grayson Mill
• Fields: Beaver Lodge (Williams); Bailey (Dunn); and, Grinnell (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has a permit for a Barbara well, SESE 36-154-97; 
• to be sited 468 FWL and 291 FEL;
• MRO has permits for two more wells in the Bailey oil field, Sunell and Bjorge, NENE 18-145-93; 
• one to be sited 380 FNL and 901 FEL; 
• the other to be sited 340 FNL and 901 FEL.
• Hess has permits for two BL-Kvam wells and one BL-Herfindahl well --  lot 1, section 30-156-9;  
• all three to be sited 527 FNL and between 392 FWL and 458 FWL.

Four BR permits were canceled:

• BR, Shafer permits, two middle Bakken and two Three Forks wells;

COP -- 3Q24 Earnings -- October 31, 2024

Locator: 48686COP.

COP: raises dividend by 34%.

This is a bit ingenuous, I suppose. 

The question, of course, is whether, the company continues to pay a VROC going forward. If not, the company can say they significantly increased its dividend and thus not have to raise the dividend for quite some time, and ... well, one gets the picture. This will be fascinating to watch. 

From Business Insider:

ConocoPhillips (COP) said its Board of Directors approved an increase to the company's existing share repurchase authorization by up to $20 billion. ConocoPhillips also declared a fourth-quarter ordinary dividend of $0.78 per share payable Dec. 2, 2024, to stockholders of record at the close of business on Nov. 11, 2024. The company noted that it is on track to distribute at least $9 billion to shareholders for 2024.

Ryan Lance, CEO, said: "We still anticipate closing the planned acquisition of Marathon Oil this quarter and expect to significantly exceed our initial $500 million synergy guidance."

Third quarter production was 1,917 MBOED, an increase of 111 MBOED from the same period a year ago. After adjusting for closed acquisitions and dispositions, third-quarter production increased 47 MBOED or 3% from the same period a year ago.

The company stated that its full-year production is expected to be approximately 1.94 to 1.95 MMBOED, as compared to prior guidance of 1.93 to 1.94 MMBOED. Fourth-quarter production is expected to be 1.99 to 2.03 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Dewali -- October 31, 2024

Locator: 48685DIWALI.

Hindi festival of lights.

We always look forward to this festival. 

And, with regard to the school calendar and the festival, the local school district is either very, very clever .... or purely coincidental. But I highly doubt the latter. I think the school district is being very, very clever.

We live in a very, very conservative part of the DFW metropolis. Dallas is blue, Ft Worth is purple, and the north side of Ft Worth where we are is very red. The administrators and officials of the local public schools have a lot of issues to navigate, including how to handle religious holidays.

Diwali is a moveable feast occurring this time of year, sometimes early, sometimes later, coming close to overlapping with Christmas. It is generally celebrated for five days but can be celebrated as little as one day depending on the calendar. I've always considered it a five-day celebration and my hunch is that the local Hindus celebrate it as long as possible.

Diwali this year is very, short in duration, lasting just over 24 hours. It started this morning, Thursday, Halloween and will end tomorrow morning, Friday, 

But, look at this! Next week, Sophia gets Monday and Tuesday off from school. A four-day weekend which just happens to coincide with Diwali! 

And this is what makes me think the school district is so clever. There are a number of Indian students that attend the local public schools but not all folks might think it appropriate to celebrate a Hindi festival. So, to avoid controversy, the school district scheduled Monday and Tuesday next week as teacher continuing education / workshop days. The kids have the four-day weekend and the teachers get the mandatory continuing education required by the state.

Again, perhaps it's just coincidental. I really don't know, but it sure makes me wonder.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- October 31, 2024

Locator: 48684CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Zuckerberg vs Gates: at this "stage" in his life, Mark Zuckerberg seems so much "smarter" than Bill Gates when the latter was at the same stage in his life. This suggests to me that Zuckerberg has a lot more room to grow .... exponentially.  

Starbucks: among the companies that are going to get a lot of attention between now and the end of 2025, Starbucks may be the most interesting. 

So many stories out there right now regarding Starbucks, and generally none of them very favorable to the company. Another headline story how Starbucks hopes to win back some customers. Eighty cents for cream for one's coffee -- remember, a senior coffee at some participaing McDonald's is about 79 cents, but that was awhile ago; not sure what the price might be now. Regardless, a "senior" coffee is not a company policy; local franchises may off it, however.

Apple / AAPL: Cramer anticipates that Apple will "miss" when the company reports earnings after market close.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.

A COP Heiress Who Received $100,000 In Dividends Last Quarter, Will Get $134,000 In Dividends This Quarter -- That Should Cover 3% Inflation Concerns -- Thursday, October 31, 2024

Locator: 48683B.

Comcast: considers spinning off cable networks.

COP: raises dividend by 34%.

US economy, link here:

With another solid performance in the third quarter, the U.S. has grown 2.7% over the past year. It is outrunning every other major developed economy, not to mention its own historical growth rate.

More impressive than the rate of growth is its quality. This growth didn’t come solely from using up finite supplies of labor and other resources, which could fuel inflation. Instead, it came from making people and businesses more productive.

This combination, if sustained, will be a wind at the back of the next president. Three of the past four newcomers to the White House took office in or around a recession (the exception was Donald Trump, in 2017), which consumed much of their first-term agenda. The next president should be free of that burden.

Meanwhile, higher productivity growth should make the economy a bit less prone to inflation, more capable of sustaining budget deficits, and more likely to deliver strong wages. All would be a boon to President Trump or President Kamala Harris.

To describe this economy as remarkable would strike most Americans as confusing, if not insulting. In the latest WSJ poll, 62% of respondents rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor,” which explains the lack of any political dividend for President Biden. There are many reasons for the disconnect, most important the high inflation of 2021-23, whose effects still linger.

And then this, Goldilocks:

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.19.

Friday, November 1, 2024: 3 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 577 for the year

• 40293, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 5H,
• 40291, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 XW 1H,
• 40246, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Pike 32-6 1H,

Thursday, October 31, 2024: 60 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 574 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: BridgeTex on track to be the last Permian-to-Houston Pipe to fill up.

Permian producers have enjoyed an abundance of outbound options since the pandemic, with egress capacity surpassing production. While a significant amount of capacity remains available, not all routes have proven equal in the eyes of the market, with Corpus Christi and Houston the most sought-after destinations for Permian crude. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explore why ONEOK’s BridgeTex Pipeline is the only conduit serving the Houston market that still has room to take on additional volumes — although it appears to be quickly nearing full capacity.

Dodgers: Biggest MLB Comeback To Clinch The Series -- The Dodgers Were Down 5 - 0 In The Fifth; Down 1 In The Eighth Before The Tying Run And Then The Winning Run -- October 30, 2024

Locator: 48682SPORTS.

Silver Hill Energy With Three New Permits; Oasis Reports Two Completed DUCs -- October 30, 2024

Locator: 48681B.

WTI: $68.85.

Active rigs: 40.

Three new permits, #41294 - #41296, inclusive:

• Operator: Silver Hill Energy
• Field: White Earth (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Silver Hill Energy has permits for three wells, NWSW 35-158-94, to be sited:
• Double-R Sarah, 1791 FSL and 502 FWL
• Double-R Paige, 1756 FSL and 502 FWL,
• Double-R Leah, 1721 FSL and 502 FWL,

Three permits renewed:

• MRO (2): Levi USA and Kottke USA, Lost Bridge, Dunn County;
• Slawson, Magnum, Baker, McKenzi

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 40417, 969, Oasis, Fossum 5301 43-35 3B, Indian Hill, npd,
• 40418, 1,017, Oasis, Fossum 5301 43-35 4B, Indian Hill, npd, 

Well of interest:

• 19324, IA/674, Oasis, Fossum 15-35H, Indian Hill, t11/10; cum 233K 1/24;

The Puerto Rico Story Appears To Have Legs -- October 30, 2024

Locator: 48680POLITICS.

Link here.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- The Sixth Industrial Revolution -- The Nvidia Revolution -- October 30, 2024

Locator: 48679CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Another example of the "Nvidia revolution."

Corning and ATT: $1 billion fiber deal ticker --

GLW: up 5% yesterday; one-year: 84%

• aggressive growth plan
• two largest fiber factories in the world are in North Carolina; also lowest cost; and both are owned by Corning; tariffs can only help them; tariffs won't hurt them
• physics: fiber beats satellite
• one single "piece" of paired fiber can match one satellite in terms of transmitted data

Corning fiber competitors: 

Ken Fisher: link here. %

Mac Mini: I stopped by the Apple Store in Southlake, TX, on the way home from running errands. It hasn't arrived yet -- the M4 Mac Mini -- but I'm pretty sure I'm going to buy it after the excitement dies down. The Mac Mini was first introduced in 2005; Steve Jobs died in 2011. One wonder what vision Jobs had for the Mac Mini?

From a post just a few days ago:

See wiki, as currently understood and generally accepted:

• first industrial revolution: 1760 - 1840; ended in the middle of the 19th century; inventions; advancements in textiles; age of inventions;
  
• second industrial revolution: advancements in manufacturing processes; 1870 - 1914 (beginning of WWI); age of mass manufacturing;
  
• third industrial revolution: beginning in 1947, information age; computer coming out of WWII; Colossus, Bletchley Park;
  
• fourth industrial revolution: rapid technological advancement beginning in the late 1990s; the Age of Apple (or the personal computer).
  

Much better:

• first industrial revolution: ended in the middle of the 19th century; age of invention;
  
• second industrial revolution: 1870 - 1914 (beginning of WWI); age of Henry Ford, mass manufacturing;
  
• third industrial revolution: peri-WWI -- the age of conventional manufacturing and logistics; rise of synthetics and the oil and gas industry; age of Standard Oil (or the age of John D Rockefeller);
  
• fourth industrial revolution: beginning in 1947, information age; the computer age (or the age of Turing);
  
• fifth industrial revolution: rapid technological advancement beginning in the late 1990s -- maybe it began in 1984 with the (in)famous Apple commercial; age of Apple (or the age of Steve Jobs)
  

The question is whether "we" have entered the sixth industrial revolution: Nvidia blades; LDCs; a return to nuclear energy to meet energy needs of the information age. If so:

•  sixth industrial revolution: artificial intelligence enters its stride; the "Nvidia revolution."

It's hard for me to accept that the need for nuclear energy to meet the needs of LDCs does not signify a new industrial revolution.

Note: "the Nvidia revolution" is a metonym for the artificial intelligence advancements that began in the early 2020s. 

For investors: take some time to look at the various stock markets around the world during the earlier industrial revolutions. The best two might be the second industrial revolution, the age of Henry Ford, and the third industrial revolution, the age of John D Rockefeller. One might come up with a lot of ideas. 

Watching the World Series suggested an analogy between investing and winning at baseball. 

Cramer's First Hour -- October 30, 2024

Locator: 48678ECONOMY.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Super Micro Computer: oh-oh

• Ernst and Young resigns as Super Micro's accounting firm
• shares down 31% at open
• accounting issues
• Cramer thinks it will get worse
  

Economic numbers released this morning: "we're in a sweet spot."

• GDP, 3Q24, first read: 2.8% vs 3.15 forecast
• PCE price index ex-food, energy: 1.6%
• PCE price index: +1.5%
• core PCE: +2.2%
• blah, blah, blah
• there's people complaining about these numbers, really? 
• the Fed's favorite measure of inflation: core PCE which exludes 
• the difference between PCE and PCE price index: PCE is a measure of consumer spending, while PCEPI is a method used to measure inflation
• so, the Fed's favorite metric is slightly above 2, at 2.2%; and,
• the measure of inflation is 1.5%. Okay.

From an investor's point of view: time to stay the course; stick to your plan.  

Google AI: I'm really pleased with Google search. No one else now comes close. 

Apple's M4 and M4 Pro Mac Mini: link here.

• 5 x 5 inches; less than half the size of the previous design
• compared to best-selling PC desktop in that price range, Mac mini is up to 6x faster and one-twentieth the size
• a 10-core CPU, a 10-core GPU,
• but for pro-level, significantly more
• 2x faster than the M1 MacMini
• front and back ports
• for the first time, includes Thunderbolt 5 for faster data transfer speeds
• Thunderbolt: high-speed interface that uses USB-C connectors
• can support multiple protocols; can connect multiple devices, can connect multiple 4K monitors
• for $599:
• 16GB of memory

Lilly: drops 10%, pre-market

• Cramer is livid; says it's a story of miscommunication; CEO didn't handle the conversation, the story well;
  
• suggests that Lilly didn't trust (demand) numbers; thought they were too much, so:
  
• under-produced; unable to meet demand and some consumers had to go elsewhere

GOOG: Cramer was absolutely impressed with the numbers

• amount of money they are making is insane; no wonder it has government's attention
• despite its numbers, GOOG had worse (stock)performance of the Mag-7
• CAPEX: $13 billion / quarter and they need to spend more
  

Reddut: soars to record high.

• RDDT: up 24% in past month
• shares up 30% pre-market
  

CAT: dragging down the Dow.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.

Wednesday -- Hump Day -- October 30, 2024

Locator: 48677B.

Stories to watch today:

• Eli Lilly
• UBS  
• smashes 3Q24 expectations with $1.4 billion in profit
• EPS: 43 cents/share
• revenue of $19.31 billion
• revenue net of interest expense was $12.33 billion topping forecasts
  
• Volkswagen
• 60% fall in profits; sales in China slump: The Guardian.
  
• profit falls 42%: CNBC.
  
• company faces battle in talk of closing three plants in Germany;
  
• Apple's Mac Mini
  
• EV air taxis
• as always, the Mag-7 
• Ken Fisher and the Mag-7
• Corning and ATT: $1 billion fiber deal
• ticker GLW: up 5% yesterday; one-year: 84%
  
• aggressive growth plan
• two largest fiber factories in the world are in North Carolina; also lowest cost; and both are owned by Corning; tariffs can only help them; tariffs won't hurt them
• physics: fiber beats satellite
• Corning fiber competitors
  
• rule of 40
• AppEconomy
  
• MSFT earnings
• ONEOK
• Ford CEO and his favorite car
• SBUX; HQ in Seattle, the boss lives in San Diego; has ordered his folks to be "in the office" three days a week; 
• SNAP: up $10 / share in pre-market trading
  
• REDDIT soaring in pre-market trading; up over 20%
  
• PR PA PP
• this week's econ numbers
• GDP with a 3-handle; and some (not all) analysts see growth stronger than the number 
• ADP report and wage data
  
• 10-year Treasury: 4.220% 

Jargon:

• superclusters: Medium.
  

**************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.81.

Thursday, October 31, 2024: 60 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 574 for the year

• None.

Wednesday, October 30, 2024: 60 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 574 for the year

• 40217, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-7H,
• 40209, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 6H,

One well of interest:

• 40209, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 6H, South Tobacco Garden:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	24724	41893
7-2024	32984	54086
6-2024	15267	19398

RBN Energy: access to uninterrupted power just one factor in siting data centers.

The prospect of a massive buildout of data centers across the U.S. has utilities preparing for a surge in power demand. And while access to an uninterrupted power supply is a critical factor for companies deciding where to build a data center, it’s not the only variable — power prices and proximity to customers also play a major role. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at where data centers are deployed across the U.S., the major factors that determine where a facility gets built, and how the sudden expansion is playing out in the major U.S. technology hubs. 

As we wrote in Storm Front, a data center is a facility housing many networked computers that work together to process, store and share data. Most major tech companies — such as Amazon, Google and Meta — rely heavily upon data centers as a central component in delivering online services. Most relevant to our discussion today, data centers are energy-intensive, consuming anywhere from 10 to 50 times the energy per floor space of a typical commercial office building, with electrical demand at larger facilities ranging from 100 to 300 megawatts (MW), or enough to power tens of thousands of homes.

Hess With Four New Permits In Williams County -- October 29, 2024

Locator: 48676B.

WTI: $67.69.

Active rigs: 42.

Four new permits, #41290 - #41293, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess
• Fields: Dollar Joe (Williams)
  
• Comments;
• Hess has permits for three GO-Morgan wells and one GO-Layton well, lot 4,section 18-156-97;, 
• to be sited 385 FSL and between 840 FWL and 972 FWL
  

Three permits canceled:

• CLR: two Thronson permits and a Sorenson permit, all on the same pad, SESE 21-154-94; Mountrail County.
  

China: Growing Electricity Demand Despite A Poor Economy -- October 29, 2024

Locator: 48675CHINA.

China:

• despite a incredibly poor economy (and possibly getting worse despite government stimulus) electricity demand continues to grow -- and grow significantly -- beneficiary? Coal plants.

From Bloomberg today:

Surging Chinese power demand is raising questions about whether the booming renewables sector can keep pace and what that means for targets to cap greenhouse gas emissions.

The country’s coal plants are the largest contributors to global warming, and robust electricity use is prolonging their lifespan even as the nation adds record amounts of wind and solar. Thermal generation is up 1.9% through September from a year earlier — although that would be much higher without clean energy picking up the slack.

During the same period, electricity consumption increased 7.9%, the highest since the post-Covid manufacturing boom of 2021. That year, the rise in demand was matched by strong growth, but this time the electron feast comes as the country struggles with a downbeat economy.

Power and growth have long been connected. Electricity usage, rail freight and bank lending comprise the Li Keqiang Index — named after a comment by the former premier that those metrics provided a more accurate reflection of the economy than reported gross domestic product figures.

Demand is on track to outperform GDP for a fifth straight year.

China is second only to Japan among major economies for electrification rates. Power accounted for 28% of its energy consumption in 2022, compared with 11% in 2000, as heating and transportation electrify. That puts more pressure on coal but is still good for the climate because it replaces less efficient fossil-fuel use.

The danger for the climate is new demand sources such as data centers and cooling. Manufacturing of air conditioners jumped 15% in China last year after record heat in 2022, while September’s hot weather sent residential energy use surging.

No one wants to deprive people of lifesaving cooling during more-frequent bouts of extreme heat. But if Chinese consumers keep guzzling electricity at this pace, it will mean the clean-energy revolution has even more work to do than previously believed.

And, of course, we haven't even mentioned India.

Apple Notes, NASDAQ, -- October 29, 2024

Locator: 48674MMF.

After the market close: 

• GOOG must have reported nice earnings. After hours shares up over $6 / up about 4% and continuing to climb. Cloud revenue impresses. I assume that would be a reflection of AI.
  
• AMD: haven't seen the report yet, but shares up 4% before the close; and, up another 1% after the close before earnings announced; later: someone must know something ... I haven't seen earnings yet, but AMD now goes negative, down 5%; great report, beats everywhere, but EPS exactly in-line and that results in AMD dropping as much as $10 / share; down around 5%. CEO exuberant in her comments. Not unexpected. After hours, AMD got crushed.
  
• AMD: crushed after hours. Who needs to worry? Intel (INTC); the business of each is in the same sector (CPUs); Nvidia's sector? GPUs.
• yes, I know, it's evolving
  
• Nvidia has a huge moat and remain a year ahead of the competition with regard to GPU chips
• Nvidia has the momentum; LDCs and other buyers of GPUs are not mixing and matching different makes of chips
  
• Chipotle: mixed results. EPS beat but shares drop 6%.
• First Solar: big miss and shares drop 6%.
• Intel: buying opportunity -- said by some -- was July / August, 2024 -- some saw it and bought early at $30; others waited and got in at $18 -- for the archives; will compare with AMD at the one year mark.
  

Original Note

Note: what a great site to eat lunch. Watching national guard F-15s take off.  Still look as modern as ever. Amazing.

Market: this is amazing, also --  NASDAQ hits another all-time record -- AAPL is actually in the green today -- and AMD is up 3% / up $5 today ahead of earnings report after market closes today -- as long as I'm checking, INTC? Down.

Also amazing and completely inexplicable: with all the reading Charlie Munger did (plus all the other resources to which he.had access), how BRK completely missed the AI revolution, at least based on news stories. Of course, when the Mag-7 crash and burn, there will be a lot of "I-told-you-so" headlines. Whatever.

And then these headlines from CNBC online today:

• consumer conference surges -- I'm sure this greatly disappoints and confuses Rick Santelli;
• NASDAQ climbs to fresh record
• Morgan Stanley CEO says the era of zero interest rates and inflation is over (that satisfies both sides)
• zero interest rates never made sense but it certainly did great things for the economy
• but what does he mean "the era of inflation" is over? But that's what CNBC reported

Apple / AAPL: link here. Revenue jump on Chinese demand?

Apple / AAPL: link here. Broadens manufacturing base in India.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.

My Favorite Chart Update -- October 29, 2024

Locator: 48674MMF.

Updates

November 1, 2024: from ZeroHedge. Consider the source. Does it mean anything if no one else is talking about it? Or is this simply another ZeroHedge  post that will go nowhere? All I see in these charts is another argument for cutting rates. And the faster the better.

Original Post

Link here.

A $40-billion increase.

Grayson Mill's Refracked Hovland Wells -- October 29, 2024

Locator: 48673B.

The Grayson Mill Hovland wells. I may have this wrong, but I believe this is the story. 

The original Hovland wells were first drilled back in May, 2014. They were still producing a small amount of well, on a pump, as of December, 2023, when they were taken off line by their new operator, Grayson Mill. The wells were placed on confidential list to be re-fracked. Confidential list, 4/24. Released from confidential list 10/24. Refrack results of one such well:

• 26449: prior to refrack cumulative crude oil produced ~ 220,000 bbls since 5/14. Now, cum 282,745 bbls cumulative crude oil produced.
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2024	28	16953	17108	28610	34465	26320	8033
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	22717	22774	61400	51114	36151	14839
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	22123	21527	124422	35932	27979	7854
BAKKEN	5-2024	2	121	98	4935	96	0	94
BAKKEN	4-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	18	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	18	479	513	395	1190	1118	0

The new Hovland well will come off confidential list tomorrow, October 30, 2024.

• 40209, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 6H, South Tobacco Garden, t4/24; initial runs:
  

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  8-2024	24724	41893
  7-2024	32984	54086
  6-2024	15267	19398

***********************************

WTI: $67.63.

Wednesday, October 30, 2024: 60 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 574 for the year

• 40217, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-7H,
• 40209, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 6H,

Tuesday, October 29, 2024: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 572 for the year

• 40592, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 5B,
• 26450, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-4H,
• 26449, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-3H,

RBN Energy: how much natural gas storage capacity does Alberta really have?

For natural gas markets to operate as efficiently as possible, a lot of data is needed, including up-to-date estimates of the amount of gas in storage and the physical capacity to hold it. For too long, Canadian natural gas markets have been operating with an obvious blind spot: little to no reliable storage data. With Alberta being home to the largest amount of gas storage capacity in Canada, having accurate information could provide vital data in the pricing of Canadian natural gas. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a multi-part series examining Canadian natural gas storage, starting with Alberta. 

Having an accurate reading on the amount of natural gas held in underground storage is a primary ingredient in the functioning of gas markets and the prompt and future pricing of this important commodity. If natural gas storage levels are deemed by the market to be too high, then prompt and future prices will likely pull back to incentivize more demand, discourage production and slow injections of gas into storage sites. The opposite is true when the amount of gas in storage is considered too low: prompt and future prices will rise to encourage more production, reduce demand and increase injections. The market’s general goal is an iterative process to ensure that an adequate amount of gas — but not too much — is socked away ahead of the high-demand winter months.

Five New Permits; Three Permits Canceled; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- October 28, 2024

Locator: 48672B.

Hydrogen: from RBN Energy, September 10, 2024: 

RBN Energy: how existing US hydrogen infrastructure forms a base for future expansion. Archived.

The hype around low-carbon-intensity (LCI) hydrogen that captivated many energy transition fans over the past four years has lost some momentum of late as industry players recalibrate their investment plans in the face of spiraling costs. Still, the U.S. government is moving full speed ahead — the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (2021) and Inflation Reduction Act (2022) promise to flow billions of dollars into LCI hydrogen infrastructure via tax credits and other incentives.

Which raises this question: Will LCI hydrogen make economic sense or not? In November 2021, the Department of Energy (DOE) asked the National Petroleum Council (NPC) to take a deep dive into the topic. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a review of the issues at hand.

Reality sucks, link here.

Remember Plug Power? I was suckered into investing, but got out quickly.

The "hydrogen" headlines this past year

Updates

October 28, 2024: hydrogen stocks crash as hype faces reality check.

September 10, 2024: hydrogen infrastructure update, RBN Energy.

August 19, 2024: hydrogen collapsing.

April 24, 2024: what's holding back hydrogen vehicles.

March 11, 2024: natural gas pipelines and hydrogen hubs.

December 28, 2023: Biden hits the brakes on hydrogen. A flurry of year-end stories.

************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.69.

Active rigs: 41.

Five new permits, #41283 - #41287, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (3); Koda Resources (2)
• Fields: East Fork (Williams); Deaneville (Divide County)
• Comments;
• Koda Resouces has permits for two Bock wells, NWNw 24-161-102, 
• both to be sited 483 FNL with one at 654 FWL and the other 689 FWL;
• CLR has permits for two Peterson wells and one Chloe well, SWSE 20-156-99; 
• all three to be sited to be sited 300 FSL and at 1753 FEL; 1817 FEL: and, 1785 FEL

Three permits canceled:

• MRO: Quincy, Ebeltoft, and Beverly Dunn County; NWNE 18-145-93;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37578, 0, BR, Mathistad 2B MTFH, McKenzie County;
• 37581, 867, BR, Cross 2A MBH, McKenzie County;
• 40601, 526, True Oil; Slash Federal 11-4 4-9 TF1H; McKenzie County;

Ford — $38,250 Loss Per EV Delivered — Warranty Costs With Significant Impact On Earnings — CEO Is Coy On Warranty Costs — Overall Guidance Is Seen As Disappointing By Headline Writers — October 28, 2024

Locator: 48671FORD.

Ford. Link here. Also here. Also here.

CEO does not provide “hard numbers” for either the loss incurred on each EV sold or the warranty costs going forward into the out years.

For most recent quarter: misses on top line; beat on bottom line.

Volkswagen: slashing jobs. Could close three car plants in Europe.

Presidential politics: if Trump loses by a whisker, the post-mortem could easily include the MSG rally this past weekend. 

Hyperscalars: spending will increase by 40% next year. Rest of the market, spending will increase by 1%.

Thanksgiving meal prices this year: lower than last year. My hunch: won’t get a lot of attention by the MAGA cult.

Apple's Big Week -- Apple Intelligence Starting To Roll Out -- M4 Across The Board -- Updated Models -- October 28, 2024

Locator: 48670APPLE.

Perhaps the best source: MacRumors.

Also: The Verge. 

Perhaps even better: twitter.

My hunch: Tim Cook's Apple device of choice while traveling -- the M4 13-inch iPad Pro with detachable keyboard and Apple Pencil. 

In carry-on, Tim Cook probably also carries the Mac Mini. Currently only the M2 is available at the Apple website but announcements suggest the Mac Mini will "soon" be released with the M4 chip.

Supercomputer -- Elon Musk, Jensen Huang -- October 28, 2024

Locator: 48669NVIDIA.

Supercomputer, link here.

TOP500 Project: it would take just that long for government regulators, lawyers, and politicians to come up with a basic outline for a plan for such a project.

Lithium Update -- October 28, 2024

Locator: 48668LITHIUM.

Lithium in Nevada (Elon Musk): from last week.

Pretty hilarious.

Today, link here. 

Texas: home of so much lithium we'll never run out!

Meanwhile, how much lithium do we really need? Link here. Lithium demand doesn't just decline, it tanks:

Chevron Trimming Non-Core Assets; Closing In On Hess Deal -- October 28, 2024

Locator: 48667B.

Israel: having spent a lot of time over the weekend reading the various reports and the social media response, one really gets the feeling that armchair analysts -- professional and amateur -- have no idea how big a story that the Israeli response was.  

One hundred aircraft, most of them older model fighters (F-16s and F-15s) and only a few stealthy fighters, slow-moving tankers, and I assume AWACS, and telegraphing Iranians and Washington, DC, the attack was about to come, and not one a/c was lost. Surgical strikes and not hitting oil and nuclear sites per Biden's demand. And from what I can tell, Iran's entire air defense system was taken out.

WSJ: link here. Actually we've seen this movie before. Nominees for the annual Geico Rock Award: Daniel Michaels, Rajesh Roy.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.75.

Tuesday, October 29, 2024: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 572 for the year

• 40592, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 5B,
• 26450, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-4H,
• 26449, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-3H,

Monday, October 28, 2024: 55 for the month; 55 for the quarter, 569 for the year

• 40598, conf,  CLR, Doe 7-23H,
• 40216, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-6H

Sunday, October 27, 2024: 53 for the month; 53 for the quarter, 567 for the year

• 40215, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-5H,

Saturday, October 26, 2024: 52 for the month; 52 for the quarter, 566 for the year

• 40597, conf, CLR, Doe 6-23H,
• 40591, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 4B,
• 40214, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-4H,

RBN Energy: Chevron trimming non-core assets in advance of closing on Hess deal. Archived.

The multibillion-dollar acquisitions that have become almost routine in the upstream sector the past few years are typically accompanied by asset rationalization — in other words, a thoughtful look at which elements of the pro forma company make sense followed by the divestiture of those that don’t. In many cases, a key aim of that rationalization process is trimming any debt associated with the acquisition itself. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the big steps Chevron has been taking to rework its portfolio — and sell off up to $15 billion in assets — as it inches toward closing on its $60 billion purchase of Hess Corp. 

ExxonMobil’s $64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources ($59.5 billion in stock plus the assumption of $5 billion of Pioneer debt), which closed in May, may be the biggest individual upstream deal ever. But when you add ’em up, Chevron’s M&A hat trick — Noble Energy ($13 billion; closed in October 2020), PDC Energy ($7.6 billion; closed in May 2023) and, most recently, Hess Corp. ($60 billion; closing sometime next year) — gives the second-largest descendant of Standard Oil bragging rights as the #1 upstream acquirer in recent history, with deals totaling more than $73 billion, including the assumption of a combined $17.5 billion of debt.

Anticipation -- October 27, 2024

Locator: 48666ISRAEL.

Israel: having spent a lot of time over the weekend reading the various reports and the social media response, one really gets the feeling that armchair analysts -- professional and amateur -- have no idea how big a story that the Israeli response was.  

One hundred aircraft, most of them older model fighters (F-16s and F-15s) and only a few stealthy fighters, slow-moving tankers, and I assume AWACS, and telegraphing Iranians and Washington, DC, the attack was about to come, and not one a/c was lost. Surgical strikes and not hitting oil and nuclear sites per Biden's demand. And from what I can tell, Iran's entire air defense system was taken out. 

Unit 669: link here.

WTI: plunging today. Speaks volumes about the Israeli surgical strikes.

The market: maybe armchair analysts -- professional and amateur -- don't get it, but investors (and traders) certainly do. Look at futures.

McDonald's: I like the decisiveness of the CEO. Doesn't wait to make a decision once the "all-clear" is given. Good for them. Link here. Screenshot below from CNBC.

NVDA, link here:

Presidential election: everything suggests that a lot of folks on either side of the aisle are going to be very, very, very disappointed. The other story is how "scared" a lot of CEOs appear to be with the thought of a Harris presidency.

Initial Production For New Wells Reporting This Next Week -- October 27, 2024

Locator: 48665B.

The wells:

• 40310, conf, Hess, EN-Rice A-155-94-0310H-8, Manitou,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	10904	10229
7-2024	11494	10676
6-2024	16670	14705
5-2024	34157	42825

• 40639, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 6-35H, East Fork, npd,
• 40309, conf, Hess, EN-Rice A-155-94-0310H-7, Manitou,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	16620	25107
7-2024	16774	23537
6-2024	13489	14564
5-2024	26714	2464

• 40640, conf, CLR, Christopherson 7-14H, East Fork, npd, 
• 40641, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 7-35HSL, East Fork, npd,
• 39639, conf, Hess, TI-State-LN-158-95-3635H-1, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	4888	19468
7-2024	6658	19859
6-2024	7690	15919
5-2024	9434	15597

• 40293, conf,  Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 5H, South Tobacco Garden,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	38759	57256
7-2024	44955	90947
6-2024	49038	107738

• 40291, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 XW 1H, South Tobacco Garden,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	33478	49286
7-2024	39200	64645
6-2024	63354	78076

• 40246, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Pike 32-6 1H, Starbuck,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	3051	0
7-2024	3070	0
6-2024	4491	0
5-2024	5	0

• 40217, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-7H,
• 40209, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 6H, South Tobacco Garden,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	24724	41893
7-2024	32984	54086
6-2024	15267	19398

• 40592, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 5B, Truax, npd,
• 26450, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-4H, South Tobacco Garden,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	17802	22968
7-2024	22825	32215
6-2024	22395	25615
5-2024	143	0

• 26449, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-3H, South Tobacco Garden,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	8399	13017
7-2024	15668	17942
6-2024	16243	23540
5-2024	19073	27623

• 40598, conf,  CLR, Doe 7-23H, Murphy Creek, npd,
• 40216, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-6H, Little Knife,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	8399	13017
7-2024	15668	17942
6-2024	16243	23540
5-2024	19073	27623

• 40215, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-5H, Little Knife,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	13353	18320
7-2024	22213	30376
6-2024	20271	29069
5-2024	22740	32400
4-2024	1280	1898

• 40597, conf, CLR, Doe 6-23H, Murphy Creek, npd,
• 40591, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 4B, Truax, no production data,
• 40214, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-4H, Little Knife,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	14369	17936
7-2024	15280	18877
6-2024	18580	24522
5-2024	27869	36961
4-2024	18	11