Observations On The US Presidential Campaign -- Fair And Balanced -- Simply Some Observations -- July 28, 2024

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Some observations.

Everyone knows that the race is now neck-and-neck, 49% - 47%, or thereabouts. 

But that's not the story. The story is how amazingly fast the race changed. From The WSJ (beware, the graph might be a bit confusing for some, again, the numbers are 49% - 47%);

Even a caveman can read that graph.

Two: at the dotted line in the graph where Harris surges and Trump shows a little bump, where did those "new" votes come from? Independents. 

How does one know that? Peggy Noonan has explained it. About two columns ago.

By the way, one can see the "Democratic defections" every day that Biden stayed in the race. That's why he finally decided to get out (or at least his handlers finally forced the decision).

Other observations:

• scheduled "bounces" before the election:
• Trump: none
• Harris: two
• when she names her VP: and,
• after the convention

What else:

• mojo. Who has it? Harris.

Media coverage:

• the Biden - Harris flip; incredibly refreshing; no longer about Biden; first black woman could be president
• Trump: getting crazier -- headline for past three days on Drudge -- Trump tells Christians they will never have to vote again if he wins; reported by the NYTiimes but buried on page 15.
• link here for more.
  

But the absolute worse data point?

• Trump's VP selection remorse: not only has it become a meme, it's gaining traction
• if Trump's polling numbers start to drop, watch out -- he knows he is not to blame
• Vance on abortion.
  

And finally, intersecting the worse data point?

• VP Harris could make the VP pick of a lifetime!

One more thing, and this is amazing when you think about it. 

The very definition of irony. Because everyone agrees that VP Harris doesn't have a job right now, there is a sitting president eager to cement his legacy still sitting behind that "resolute desk," she can devote 100% of her time to the campaign. 

Hunch: we'll know at the end of the Democratic convention who will win the presidency.

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• JD Vance is truly starting to look the Sarah Palin of Dan Quayles (while Kamala Harris has a deep bench to choose from) 

• Fire season has returned with a vengeance, from California to Calgary (and the world just keeps getting hotter by the day, literally) 

• As members of the US Congress give Benjamin Netanyahu dozens of standing ovations, Israel continues to murder Palestinian civilians 

• Even more so than usual, Trump is saying the quiet part loud 

NASA thinks they have just discovered signs of life on Mars (and no one seems to care).