Only One Sector Of The Economy Has Any Effect On The Entire Rest Of The US Economy: Housing -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47864ECON.

Only one sector matters any more: housing. And that sector won't be solved any time soon, if ever. Certainly not in my investing lifetime.

• everything else is part of the US Goldilocks economy; everything else is manageable; and almost everything else is going to improve even more over the next 24 months. 
• the only sector that is "out of control" but which does not have any effect on the overall economy is secondary education. 
• women's reproductive rights has become a terrifying issue for 14% of the US population, but it won't affect the economy; and it's hard to call it "out of control" -- 
  

Actually, the only other sector that is out of control is the media, and specifically, the media that covers politics, but in the big scheme of things, politics has very little effect on the daily life of most Americans. 

• exhibit A: all that talk and the federal / state action regarding IVF? Two percent of all births, annually, in the US, are the result of IVF.
• swamping IVF: babies born to new arrivals from the southern border: born in the USA -- fastest way to gain citizenship --
• and the US government isn't going to separate newborn babies (citizens) from their parents, regardless of status
• social security numbers "automatically" provided to all newborns

Biggest bargain for US shoppers within the next 24 months: privately owned vehicles (POVs), and in this order, timeframe in parentheses):

• used EVs (now)
• used ICE (in next six months)
• new EVs (now through the next 24 months)
• new ICE (six months through the next 24 months)

The Fed: whatever the Fed does now will simply affect American psychologically; 

• whatever actions the Fed takes over the 12 next months (through July, 2025) will have no material effect on Main Street or for home buyers. 
• whatever the Fed does now, however, could have an exaggerated effect on the market, for investors, and for the wealthy.

Most interesting consumer sector to watch over the next twelve months: fast food restaurants. Not talking tickers; talking headlines, prices.

Second most interesting "sector" to watch, not the ticker symbol but the earnings and headline stories:

• Walmart
• Amazon
• Target

Most interesting ticker to watch this next year? DIS. Maybe BRK.

Boeing. Seriously, why would any airline choose Boeing over Airbus?

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