PCE -- Meh! May 31, 2024

Locator: 48008FED.  

CNBC

First hour, CNBC, Jim Cramer:

• numbers this number: marginally/incrementally improved
• JPow wants to see three months of data with numbers favorable for a cut
  
• Cramer and Liesman both see this as "month 1"
• Cramer: record "jobs story" simply keeps going 
• market
  
• market, leaders YTD: AAPL, AMGN, WMT
• market, laggards YTD: Salesforce, DIS, MCD

• Trump verdict 
•  didn't affect market
• clears the calendar -- no more court hearings between now and November except for the sentencing hearing
• campaign begins in earnest
  

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Personal Investing

Person investing today: will add GLW to current position which was initiated yesterday. By rule. No recommendation. See disclaimers.

Updates

May 31, 2024: from my perspective, a projected 1.3% GDP for the 2Q24 is very, very close to turning negative.

A dropping GDP and the following graph should be very, very concerning:

 Original Post

Steve Liesman, CNBC. 

Fed's favorite data point: the PCE.

Expectations:

• 0.3%
• 0.2%

Future turning positive. Someone knows something.

Actual: relief, not euphoria. Meh.

• on target at 0.3%
• core, key: 0.2%
• PCE prices y/y: 2.7% vs 2.7%

Market surging.

Treasury yields down but inconsequential. 

Market appears comfortable with one rate cut this year.

The only word Steve Liesman did not use: "Goldilocks."

Steve Liesman says the Fed is starting to be "a bit too orthodox." 

Only real inflationary sector: housing and Fed has little control over that unless they want to "crash" the entire economy.

Rick Santelli (Mr Predictable)

• real spending down a tenth
• strength of the consumer: slowly deteriorating
• "the fix is in"
• "we're close"
• reality: we could look at a lot of numbers but bottom line is central banks around the world want to cut rates to keep the party going
• never going to end up at 2%
• his usual rant on government debt

Panel:

• two folks I've never seen; pretty low on the food chain
• first one: we're making a lot of progress; won't get to 2% until well into next year
• Fed should cut now, but will wait until September
• seems very, very disappointed in the Fed
  
• second one: no change prior to November
• expects "some" cuts but not until late in the year: that would make a cut in November and December, both after the election

After this: blah, blah, blah.