WTI Plunges -- April 17, 2024

Locator: 47030B.

Red Sea? Link here.

WTI: $82.69; a 3% drop; dropped $2.67 today; take your pick --

• peace breaks out in the Mideast; Israel and Iran call a truce (unlikely)
  
• JPow, yesterday, signals no rate cuts; oil traders sense a recession (likely)
  
• traders finally noted how strong the dollar is (partly true)
  
• whatever sanctions Biden plans to place on Venezuela, American companies operating there can continue to operate with no penalties or restrictions (true)
  
• the Permian is producing so much oil even apologists for Jane Nielson are considering replacing their EVs with ICE SUVs (completely bogus)
  

Jane Nielson: it turns out Jane Nielson continued to post articles on the Bakken. Her most recent (and apparently her last) was ten years ago, in 2014 -- link here. 

... some credible energy analysts estimate that at the highest rate of well replacement, tight oil production at the major plays: Bakken in North Dakota and adjacent states, and Eagle Ford in Texas, will eventually peak at a total production of around 2.3 million bbls/day by 2017. 

Most recently, the data shows that the Eagle Ford and the Bakken combined are producing 2.4 million bbls / day and unfettered the production from both combined could easily hit 3 million bbls / day. 

I can't talk to the Eagle Ford, but in the Bakken, operators are well below "peak" well replacement. Today there are only 37 active rigs in the Bakken. On the last day in 2014, there were 170 active rigs in the Bakken. Link here.

In November, 2014, North Dakota was producing 1.19 million bbls of crude oil with 170 active rigs. In November, 2023, North Dakota was producing 1.28 million bbls of crude oil with 40 active rigs.

And, of course, the experts don't even want to discuss the Permian when talking peak oil. LOL.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

Twelve Enerplus wells just approved for confidential status:

• NWNE 10-149-93, Dunn County:
• Troop, Canidae, Fennec, Sly, Vulpes, Kit, Renard, Swift,
• SESE 10-144-93:
• four MC-Kudrna permits

Five permits renewed:

• CLR: five Harms West Federal permits, SESW 32-153-93