US Economy -- April 14, 2024

Locator: 47005ECONOMY.

Updates

Later, 7:13 p.m. CDT: 

 

 

US debt. What am I missing here?

Original Post

Link here. 

It has been two years since forecasters felt this good about the economic outlook. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the January survey.

That was the lowest probability since April 2022, when the chances of a recession were set at 28%.

Economists, in fact, don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession.

In January, they on average forecast sub-1% growth in each of the first three quarters of this year. Now, they expect growth to bottom out this year at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter.

Just 10% of survey respondents think the economy will experience at least one quarter of negative growth over the next 12 months, down from 33% in January.

Americans have money to spend: it's difficult to imagine that the US will go into recession any time soon.

Link here.

At the link for the above graph, a lot of whiners suggest they are victims of media-induced vibecession.

I remember the year, 1973, I hitchhiked to Europe and the incredible years we had in Europe -- the 1980s -- while in the military. Why did we have it so good. We had such a strong dollar we could buy so a lot of foreign currency with one buck.

Today?

From Reuters, link here:

Thank you, Mr Biden.

Schooled. Meanwhile, Milton Friedman vs Phil Donahue, link here: