TGIF --- April 5, 2024

Locator: 46921ECONOMY.

Jobs report and market reaction: more analysis here.

• expectation: +213,000 jobs
• expectation: fewer than the 275,000 new jobs in February
• unemployment: 3.8%; down from 3.9% last month; this was quite a surprise
  
• a whopping increase of 303,000 jobs
  
• wages: right in line 
• force participation up
• Treasuries jump

ABBV: huge drop yesterday. Down over 5%. Cutting earnings estimates.

PARA: sank 8% after rallying double digits the day prior. All about Skydance Media.

Copper's comeback: Bloomberg. 

EVs: Kia cuts global EV demand forecast for 24 / 25. Link here.

• crude oil surging; US economy doing great; US household net worth up significantly
• EV prices coming down
• and yet EV excitement has peaked
• Ford to significantly delay EV transition
• everything suggests this is a watershed moment for EVs

Personal investing: add to VZ position today, by rule. Consider adding SCCO. No recommendation. See disclaimer. 

California budget: link here.

• deficit, $38 billion, buried deep in article
• first cut: $17 billion from the state budget, deal reach in April (in the past few days)
• $1 billion delay in transit and intercity rail projects (bullet train?)
• $763 million pause in hiring open state jobs
• $500 million pulled back from a program to help districts pay for K-12 building projects
• well, that adds up to less than $3 billion in a $38 billion shortfall
• what we're not being told: how budget deficit affects plan to expand Medi-Cal to all low-income immigrants -- my hunch -- that's where the big expenses will be -- in Medi-Cal and similar programs
• so, so far:
• pause in state hiring; pause in building a few new schools; and, delay in public transportation projects

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $86.62.

Sunday, April 7, 2024: 8 for the month; 8 for the quarter, 207 for the year
39784, conf, CLR, Thorvald 8-6HSL,

Saturday, April 6, 2024: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 206 for the year
38973, conf, SOGC, Harris Federal 3-31H,

Friday, April 5, 2024: 6 for the month; 6 for the quarter, 205 for the year
37571, conf, CLR, Cuskelly 6-7H,

RBN Energy: most E&P 2023 profits dip to solid levels after record 2022 but gas producers struggle.

U.S. E&Ps have just concluded discussions of their Q4 and full-year 2023 results and, as usual, the view of analysts and investors can be summed up by one question: What have you done for me lately? But while the collective results of the 44 producers we track were off from the previous quarter and a record 2022, there’s a lot to be said for how well they held up through a period of unusually low natural gas prices. In fact, if you take a step or two back for a longer-term perspective you’d see a strong historical performance that suggests E&Ps really have learned how to do well through commodity price ups and downs. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the 2023 results of a representative group of major U.S. producers and look ahead to how 2024 may shake out.