Holy Mackerel -- What Happens When "Everyone's" Working? Hourly Wages Increase? February 2, 2024

Locator: 46715JOBS.

What happens when "everyone" is working? What happens when hourly wages increase? 

The talk on CNBC is incredible: "brave new world."

Oh, back to the question(s) above.

Answer? Hint? Folks spend more money.

Consumer spending accounts for 2/3rds of the GDP.  

So, what does all that get us? 

Well, let's look. Link here.

Who alerted me to that? The smartest interviewer -- perhaps the smartest overall analyst on CNBC: Sara Eisen. 

Sara: who ever saw this coming -- inflation coming down; jobs way over the estimates; and now, GDP estimates over 4%.

And not just "barely" 4% but four-point-two percent. 

I go back to this. Goldilocks economy.

How many hundreds of thousands of new jobs = a 25-basis point cut? For earnings, not market action.

• Wow, talking heads are nuts. Meme investing.
• let's opine:
• 100,000 new jobs = a 25-basis point cut for earnings
• 3.5 x 25 = 87.5 basis points
  

How much of a drop in oil price = a 25-basis point cut? For earnings, not market action.

• let's opine:
• every $2.5 drop in WTI = 25-basis point
• $80 - $7.5 = $72.5-WTI =  another 75-basis point