RBN Energy Top Ten Prognostications For 2024 -- See #9 -- January 2, 2024

Locator: 46441B.

WTI: $71.07. Looks like the US Navy is going to control the Red Sea, take it back from the Houthis / Iranians; and, Israel presses on in Gaza without risking Mideast war expansion.

Tuesday, January 2, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year.
None.

Monday, January 1, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year.
39960, conf, Blue Flint Sequester, Mag 2,
39232, conf, Grayson Mill, Reidle 6-3F 4H,

Sunday, December 31, 2023: 45 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 764 for the year.
None.

Saturday, December 30, 2023: 45 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 764 for the year.
39289, conf, Hess, GO-Tong Trust A-LWW-157-96-2032H-1, 

RBN Energy: top ten RBN Energy prognostications for 2024 -- year of the dragon -- breathing fire?

Think energy markets are getting back to normal? After all, prices have been relatively stable, production is growing at a healthy rate, and infrastructure bottlenecks are front and center again. Just like the good ol’ days, right? Absolutely not. It’s a whole new energy world out there, with unexpected twists and turns around every corner — everything from regional hostilities, renewables subsidies, disruptions at shipping pinch points, pipeline capacity shortfalls and all sorts of other quirky variables. There’s just no way to predict what is going to happen next, right? Nah. All we need to do is stick our collective RBN necks out one more time, peer into our crystal ball, and see what 2024 has in store for us. 

We’ve been in this prognostications business for 12 years now, and it’s not getting any easier. But even with the unpredictability that’s now an expected feature of energy markets, we have maintained our long-standing tradition of not only predicting what will happen in the year ahead, but also looking back to see how we did with our predictions for the previous year. Yes, we check our work! We generally did OK last year, and you can judge for yourself in our 2023 Prognostications scorecard that was posted yesterday.

2024 — Year of the Dragon

Way back in 2013, when we first delved into the mysterious art of energy market prognostication, we needed all the help we could get. So we sought guidance from the Chinese zodiac, which turned out to be a highly valued means of assessing the future. For example, 2015 was the Year of the Goat — oil was definitely the goat that year after the Shale Era’s initial oil price crash. And 2018 was the Year of the Dog, prompting us to wonder, “Who let the dogs out?” Greed seemed palpable in 2019’s Year of the Pig. And naturally, 2020 was the Year of the Rat, 2021 the Year of the Ox, 2022 the Year of the Tiger, and 2023 the Year of the Rabbit — with those wascally wabbits being zany, tricksome, even a bit emotionally unstable. That sure sounds familiar. 

What does 2024 have in store for us? It’s the Year of the Dragon. The zodiac tells us the Dragon will bring boundless energy and inspiration for a positively changing world in 2024. Or ... the Dragon will roast us all with its fiery breath. Our crystal ball tells us we’ll see the Dragon’s positive side, with market conditions getting better. But there are a lot of risk factors out there. In today’s Prognostications, we’ll delve into some of the most important and interesting developments that we see ahead in 2024.

10. LPG is headed into uncharted territory, with maxed-out export capacity and soaring production.  

9. Bakken producers will test NGL and natural gas takeaway capacity limits.

8. The years of natural gas storage wandering in the economic wilderness are over. 

7. Canada needs more U.S. Gulf Coast natural gasoline for diluent. How will it get there? 

6. Natural gas with high nitrogen content is not good for LNG, but more is coming in 2024 anyway.

5. Cheap natural gas prices will make 2024 a good year for ethane buyers. Not so good for producers. 

4. Canadian crude flows into the U.S. will drop in 2024, narrowing the WTI-WCS differential.

3. Eagle Ford has a new lease on life and it’s dry gas from deep South Texas.

2. Permian crude oil takeaway pipelines are finally filling; the Midland-to-Houston price differential is coming back. 

1. Energy markets have fundamentally and permanently shifted and we’ll see the implications in 2024.