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Monday, December 11, 2023

Headlines -- December 11, 2023

Locator: 46280HEADLINES.

Golden Globe nominations: link here.

Technology: Every day I'm more and more amazed what technology can do for me and I assume I'm only using 2% of what is available out there. 

There's a reason this is being called the industrial revolution #4. And I'm investing accordingly. I don't have any position in Oracle, but if I were looking for another ticker for my "tech bucket," I would look at ORCL, but I have my 20 stocks and that's it. These are my buckets and the 20 tickers. If I want to add another ticker, I have to delete one of the existing ones. These buckets are my "new-money" allotment buckets. In red is a new position.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Cool: in less than 24 hours, we will know. It's amazing how financial analysts are "hanging" their reputations on this. Maybe more on this later but for now, just this:

Balmy: that describes north Texas weather right now. Shirt sleeve weather in the afternoons. What did Farmers Almanac predict?

Toys Aren't Us: Hasbro laying off 1,100 workers during Christmas season. Santa's elves are making Lego sets instead.

Buffett: continues to sell HP. 

Journaling: Apple likes it; thinks their users will also. I haven't used it, so cannot comment on whether this is something relatively "new" or if it's competing with some other product already out there. For me, the iPhone is too small on which to "journal." Even the iPad is not optimized for journaling. 

COP28: apparently the final statement will be something along the line, "hey guys, use less."

I can see clearly now: Lucid CFO resigns. LOL.



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Word Of The Day

Bacronym: the opposite of an acronym. Take an existing word and turn it into an acronym. For example, take “bison.”

“Bison” becomes “BISON” or “Biodiversity serving our nation.” Bacronyms are used all the time in politics to “name” bills, such as the CARES Act.

“Apgar”: a bacronym / mnemonic to remember five observations relating to the vitality of a newborn. But is / was “APGAR” a real word or name? Yup. It was named after famed pediatrician, Dr Virginia Apgar.

Ford To Cut Planned 2024 F-150 Lightning Production In Half -- December 11, 2023

Locator: 46279EVS.

Over the weekend, I spent a bit of time looking at the F-150 Lightning and posted a "deep dive" on the Ford EV pickup truck and EV charging. I don't recall being particularly negative or  direct but it was very obvious that the picture was very bleak.

Now, today, breaking over at CNBC:

From today's CNBC story:

Ford Motor Company will cut planned production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup roughly in half next year, marking a major reversal after the automaker significantly increased plant capacity for the electric vehicle in 2023. 
The new production plans call for average volume of around 1,600 F-150 Lightnings a week at Ford’s Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Michigan, starting in January, 2024, according to a source familiar with the decision. 
The automaker most recently planned to produce roughly 3,200 of the vehicles on average per week.

But this is the reason: US drivers don't want 'em.


 High prices and high interest rates are red herrings, but that will be the excuse.

“We’ll continue to match production with demand.” 

I don’t recall posting the story (I may have; I just don’t recall), but over the weekend there was an article suggesting dealers aren’t ordering any more EVs as these vehicles are starting to take up more space than available for vehicles. 

Number Of Active Rigs Takes Big Drop; Only One New Permit; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 11, 2023

Locator: 46278B. 

Active rigs: drop from 40 to 34.

WTI: $71.32.

One new permit, #40385:

  • Operator: Neptune Operating
  • Field: Antelope Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments: 
    • Neptune Operating has a permit for a Frederick well, lot 1, section 3-149-101; 
      • to be sited 354 FNL and 1007 FEL

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37950, 270, CLR, Brangus Federal 9-11H1,
  • 39331, 955, CLR, Arthur 9-12H1,
  • 39332, 976, CLR, Arthur 10-12H,
  • 39368, 2,269, MRO, Red 31-29TFH,

Headlines -- December 11, 2023

Locator: 46277HEADLINES.

Note: the interview at the top of the hour, 3:00 p.m. ET, "Closing Bell" was excellent / awesome. The line that caught my attention: 2023 was a great year for investors, but a lot of investors are very unhappy, and/but if they are unhappy it's because they held too much cash in 2023. The 60/40 paid them 3x cash and it's going to be even worse in 2024.  In other words, if you like cash, stick with bonds. If you want to get rich ... exhibit A: AVGO (Broadcom) is up almost 10% today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Billionaires

The ten billionaires who saw their wealth grow the most in 2023. Link here. The list appears to be ranked by "increase in value (dollars)," not "increase by percent. If by percent, Jensen Huang might have led the list with Zuckerberg still coming in second, but I'm not sure about the math. By dollars:

  • top of the list: Elon
  • second: Mark Zuckerberg
  • third: Jeff Bezos
  • rest: Steve Balmer, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Larry Elison, Jensen Huang, Bill Gates, and Michael Dell

By percent, increase y/y (needs to be fact-checked):

  • Huang: 200%
  • Zuckerberg: 160%
  • Musk: 63%

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Sports

More on Ohtani here

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Dogs Of The Dow

Link takes you to a newsletter subscription site. Maybe later I can find a better source.

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NY Chips

Link here.

New York state is joining chip companies to invest $10 billion in a semiconductor research facility at the University at Albany that is set to include some of the most advanced chip-making equipment in the world.
NY Creates, a nonprofit that oversees the Albany NanoTech Complex where the facility is to be built, will coordinate its construction.
It will also use state funds to acquire chip-making equipment from ASML Holding ASML, a Dutch company whose machines can cost hundreds of millions of dollars and are key to making the most advanced chips possible.
Once the machinery is installed, the project and its partners will begin work on next-generation chip manufacturing there.
The partners include tech giant IBM, memory manufacturer Micron Technology MU, as well as chip-manufacturing equipment makers Applied Materials AMAT, and Tokyo Electron.

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Vietnam EVs

VinFast, link here.

When electric-car startup VinFast Auto VFS was looking to build a factory in the U.S., one state caught its attention in particular: North Carolina.
For years, officials there had been trying to get an automobile manufacturer to set up shop in rural Chatham County. More than a billion dollars of incentives got them the Vietnamese upstart with huge ambitions but a limited record.
VinFast, just six years old, has licensed technology from BMW, hired former General Motors and Ford Motor executives, and worked with Italian designers to develop a modern-looking car. It plans to one day take on Tesla and other American auto giants on their home turf.

Meanwhile, F and GM have put their plans on hold.

For investors, EVs:

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The Book Page

The link takes you to an app subscription site. I have not subscribed.

About $10 / month, "summarizes 6,500 books and podcasts."

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The Book Page

I continue to really, really enjoy this book:

The Shakespeare Guide to Italy: Retracing the Bard's Unknown Travels, Richard Paul Roe, c. 2011.

It's best to skip around in this book, read the foreword, introduction, and preface first and then read each of the chapters in any order based on one's interests in Shakespeare's plays.

It's a beguiling book and at first, it seems to "playful," that one does not realize how much depth this book has. One has to be "ready to read" this book and then read it closely. It works best to have the Shakespeare play in your reach while reading the book, and perhaps a map of the village, city, country, or region where the play is set. 

But wow, you need to read it slowly and carefully. One is tempted to take notes, but that would be overwhelming and interrupt the reading.

Unfortunately, what this book needs is a very, very good index which it does not have -- an index. After I've finished reading it, I may construct my own index for the book. 

The ten-page bibliography includes sources one does not usually find in books about Shakespeare and/or his plays. 

My copy is from the library. I will order my own from Amazon. 

My notes will be posted here.

Recommend:

And then, this is really, really cool. I have an idea how to introduce Shakespeare to Sophia.

It's Monday, Oil Is Down -- Monday, December 11, 2023

Locator: 46276B.

OXY to buy Crown rock. $12 billion. Targeting $6 billion in divestments.

Russian: oil sanctions, reality sucks.

  • despite sanctions, war, Russia's GDP surges
  • making more money on oil than before sanctions
Transitory: December drop in 1 year inflation expectations within⁦ UMich ⁩sentiment index was largest 1-month decline since October 2001.

Employment: November marked another month of the unemployment rate staying below 4% … quite a streak when looking back at history.

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Back to the Bakken

EOG:

WTI: $70.73.

Tuesday, December 12, 2023: 17 for the month; 166 for the quarter, 736 for the year
39715, conf,  Petro-Hunt, Joel Goodsen 149-102-32C-29-2H,
39312, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-LN-153-99-1314H-1,

Monday, December 11, 2023: 15for the month; 164 for the quarter, 734 for the year
39714, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dudley Dawson 148-103-2B-11-1H,

Sunday, December10, 2023: 14 for the month; 163 for the quarter, 733 for the year
39713, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dudley Dawson 148-103-2B-11-2H, 
38255, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-8,

Saturday, December 9, 2023: 12 for the month; 161 for the quarter, 731 for the year
38256, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-9,

RBN EnergyE&P returns stall despite higher cash flows as caution prevails.

Despite dreams of a white Christmas and a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy, there’s a lot going on in the world — much of it upsetting and even gut-wrenching. As for energy, crude oil prices have been sagging after a brief rise and natural gas prices, while up from their lows, remain less than stellar — and it seems things could get far worse in the blink of an eye. All of that has combined to make folks cautious and wary, and that’s impacting how oil and gas producers spend — or hoard — their money. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze U.S. E&Ps’ increasingly conservative cash allocation despite rising returns in Q3 2023.