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Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Sold Out The Day It Was Released -- Christmas, 2023

Locator: 46246LEGO.

If you order today, you may not get it by Christmas.

Set #43222.

Based on number of pieces, its expected price point would be $485. Its listed price: $399.

When this set is retired, its price will trend toward $900.

Bidenomics -- Walmart -- Chicken -- WTI -- The Bakken And The Halo Effect -- December 6, 2023

Locator: 46245ECON.

WTI: plunged today. 

My first thought -- the US economy will likely slow significantly in 1H24, possibly even a short, shallow recession, but more importantly, the global economy could be in much worse shape, and, if so, there's going to be a huge free-for-all among all OPEC+ countries which now informally includes the US.
We could be looking at a huge glut of oil -- or the capacity to produce a huge glut of oil -- come next spring. This plunge in the price of WTI may not be transitory.
Re-posting:

Walmart: CNBC interview excellent this morning. 

The word “deflation” used over and over. Not inflation.
Chicken less expensive this year than last year. [Be definition: deflation; not disinflation.]
Not worried about recession talk. Simply an excellent interview. No mention of or questions about shrinkage, Generative AI and automation huge. Very upbeat. Next hour, interview continues. Great interviewer, Sara Eisen. Of course, I’m biased. Still my favorite store.
Remodeled Supercenter driving larger footprint. Stores turning into fulfillment centers. As big as these stores are, footprint, they're not big enough. A technology story. Campbell’s up 6% in early trading. WMT CEO alluded to this.

Notice the CEO's comments regarding the price of chicken.

From Walmart today: chicken, $1.14 / pound; one whole chicken for $5.

Now, FRED, also from today, updated as of the end of November.

And turkey? Still 98 cents / pound at Walmart:

Butterball: $1.28 / pound.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: : $69.62. WTI plunges despite EIA report today reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by a fairly significant 4.6 million bbls -- US crude oil in storage 1% below the five-year average.

  • OPEC in disarray; each country to make its own decision; Saudi no longer in control;
  • COP28
  • strong dollar
  • in the US, crude oil in storage trending up, and trending toward 30 days —> more than four weeks supply.

Active rigs: 40

Six new permits, #40376 - #40381, inclusive:

  • Operators: MRO (5); Liberty Resources
  • Fields: Reunion Bay (Mountrail), Cottonwood (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Liberty Resources has a permit for a K&L Hegstad South well, SESW 03-158-92; 
      • to be sited 329 FSL and 1353 FWL;
    • MRO has permits for five wells (Becker USA, Hultberg USA, Humble USA, Spaulding USA, Thelma USA), SESW 33-152-93, 
      • to be sited between 215 FSLand 297 FSL and between 1622 FWL and 1759 FWL;

 Seven produucing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39370, 2,615, MRO, Deuce 21-29TFH,
  • 39335, 800, CLR, Hegler 8-13H,
  • 39460, 1,231, CLR, Hegler 4-13H,
  • 39326, 317, Hunt Oil, Alexandria 161-100-22-15H 3,
  • 39626, 1,036, WPX, State of ND 10-3H1,
  • 39166, 926, WPX, Pennington 16-15HA,
  • 39458, 1,232, CLR, Arthur 4-12H,

Wells of interest:

  • 17064, 514, MRO, Dan Tuhy 14-32H, Bailey, t6/08; cum 538K 9/23; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202330204372040126234182431808763
BAKKEN9-2023302663426543364392263422230302
BAKKEN8-202328139351386640144127051260047
BAKKEN7-2023820552044223542784274823
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-2023412526679263125111
BAKKEN1-202331128412786122876253754

  • 23699, 1,374, MRO, C.O. 34-20H, Bailey, t11/12; cum 407K9/23; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2023312045820457369142081120441322
BAKKEN9-2023301818118177515061681016543222
BAKKEN8-202329160171597060777144951437473
BAKKEN7-2023311561149186849829699
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-2023724437912832224118
BAKKEN1-202331114511266321459110064
  • 17417, 376, MRO, Olson 14-20H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 459K 9/23; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2023311594315938411001840418075286
BAKKEN9-2023301283112824571261354813330181
BAKKEN8-202328100361008246841103201023352
BAKKEN7-2023171361313533830991350313317128
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-2023311336139667026962286112
BAKKEN2-2023281244123657324061943187
BAKKEN1-2023311181109956723341754301
BAKKEN12-2022279619854391910159596

Taylor Swift's Rise In Popularity -- Parabolic -- Parabolic Vs Asymptotic -- Beneficiary Of High Mortgage Rates? December 6, 2023

Locator: 46244B.

Time Person Of The Year -- I think one could say the excitement around Taylor Swift popularity is ... do I dare say ... parabolic?

By the way, two divas went head-to-head this Christmas season: we see a tectonic shift, from a one-name star to a two-name star. In addition, a great name for her fans: Swifties.

Can any one of us accept "Cherries"? LOL.  

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Feelings Vs Reality

Link here.

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The Dictionary Page

I may provide background later.

Parabolic:

Asymptotic:

****************************
Apple

For those folks not buying a new home next year, they're going to have a lot more money to buy "other things."

Link here.

Wow, Wow, Wow -- WTI Plunges Almost 4% -- Trading Below $70 -- This Should End Discussion Of Recession -- Unless -- December 6, 2023

Locator: 46243WTI.

The EU zone may cut rates sooner than expected: too much of the EU is facing slowdown, a recession, or are already in a recession. JPow is watching closely.

WTI: $69.62. WTI plunges despite EIA report today reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by a fairly significant 4.6 million bbls -- which is also 1% below the five-year average.

  • OPEC in disarray; each country to make its own decision; Saudi no longer in control;
  • China's economy falters; record low oil imports recently reported
  • COP28
  • strong dollar
  • TransMountain: link here.
  • in the US, crude oil in storage trending up, and trending toward 30 days
  • comments:
    • this is why I quit following Josh over at twitter, and,
    • why I pivoted out of energy a year ago or so (I still buy a bit when value is just too great) 

Friday, December 8, 2023: 160 for the month; 160 for the quarter, 730 for the year
31770, conf, BR, Ivan 5-1-29UTFH,

Thursday, December 7, 2023: 159 for the month; 159 for the quarter, 729 for the year
39308, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-153-99-1314H-9,

Wednesday, December 6, 2023: 158 for the month; 158 for the quarter, 728 for the year
None.

RBNUS push to decarbonize playing out very differently from state to state.

We’ve spent a lot of time this year looking at the global move to decarbonize and explaining why there isn’t going to be a straight line leading directly to abundant carbon-free power and a net-zero world. That might be the way a lot of people would like to see it go, but that’s not the reality we’re now facing. All sorts of obstacles have popped up, indicating that the energy industry’s trilemma of availability, reliability and affordability not only clash with each other on occasion, they can also conflict with economic and environmental priorities. Nowhere is that more evident than in the U.S., where small-scale battles over the clean-energy transition are playing out all over the map

Weekly EIA petroleum report. Link here

  • US crude oil inventories decreased by a fairly significant 4.6 million bbls -- which is also 1% below the five-year average. 
  • imports: last week increased 6.4% than the same period a year ago; at 1.7 million bopd (imports):
  • refiners: 90.5%;
  • distillate fuel: decreased a bit; inventories remain 13% below the five-year average
  • jet fuel supplied: up a paltry 1.8% compared with same four-week period last year

Headlines — December 9, 2023

Locator: 46242HEADLINES.

Delay in blogging. The day is just getting started. Long blog on a commonly-used stock term.

Personal investing: I added to my MSFT position today.

Walmart: CNBC interview excellent this morning. 

The word “deflation” used over and over. Not inflation. Chicken less expensive this year than last year. Not worried about recession talk. Simply an excellent interview. No mention of or questions about shrinkage, Generative AI and automation huge. Very upbeat. Next hour, interview continues. Great interviewer, Sara Eisen. Of course, I’m biased. Still my favorite store. Remodeled Supercenter driving foot track. Stores turning into fulfillment centers. As big as these stores are, footprint, not big enough. A technology story. Campbell’s up 6% in early trading. WMT CEO alluded to this.

McDonalds: also exciting news today. And again I’m biased — remains my favorite fast food restaurant.

Market todayCramer called it


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.