Bidenomics -- Walmart -- Chicken -- WTI -- The Bakken And The Halo Effect -- December 6, 2023

Locator: 46245ECON.

WTI: plunged today. 

My first thought -- the US economy will likely slow significantly in 1H24, possibly even a short, shallow recession, but more importantly, the global economy could be in much worse shape, and, if so, there's going to be a huge free-for-all among all OPEC+ countries which now informally includes the US.

We could be looking at a huge glut of oil -- or the capacity to produce a huge glut of oil -- come next spring. This plunge in the price of WTI may not be transitory.

Re-posting:

Walmart: CNBC interview excellent this morning. 

The word “deflation” used over and over. Not inflation.

Chicken less expensive this year than last year. [Be definition: deflation; not disinflation.]

Not worried about recession talk. Simply an excellent interview. No mention of or questions about shrinkage, Generative AI and automation huge. Very upbeat. Next hour, interview continues. Great interviewer, Sara Eisen. Of course, I’m biased. Still my favorite store.

Remodeled Supercenter driving larger footprint. Stores turning into fulfillment centers. As big as these stores are, footprint, they're not big enough. A technology story. Campbell’s up 6% in early trading. WMT CEO alluded to this.

Notice the CEO's comments regarding the price of chicken.

From Walmart today: chicken, $1.14 / pound; one whole chicken for $5.

Now, FRED, also from today, updated as of the end of November.

And turkey? Still 98 cents / pound at Walmart:

Butterball: $1.28 / pound.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: : $69.62. WTI plunges despite EIA report today reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by a fairly significant 4.6 million bbls -- US crude oil in storage 1% below the five-year average.

• OPEC in disarray; each country to make its own decision; Saudi no longer in control;
• COP28
• strong dollar
• in the US, crude oil in storage trending up, and trending toward 30 days —> more than four weeks supply.

Active rigs: 40

Six new permits, #40376 - #40381, inclusive:

• Operators: MRO (5); Liberty Resources
• Fields: Reunion Bay (Mountrail), Cottonwood (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Liberty Resources has a permit for a K&L Hegstad South well, SESW 03-158-92; 
• to be sited 329 FSL and 1353 FWL;
• MRO has permits for five wells (Becker USA, Hultberg USA, Humble USA, Spaulding USA, Thelma USA), SESW 33-152-93, 
• to be sited between 215 FSLand 297 FSL and between 1622 FWL and 1759 FWL;

 Seven produucing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39370, 2,615, MRO, Deuce 21-29TFH,
• 39335, 800, CLR, Hegler 8-13H,
• 39460, 1,231, CLR, Hegler 4-13H,
• 39326, 317, Hunt Oil, Alexandria 161-100-22-15H 3,
• 39626, 1,036, WPX, State of ND 10-3H1,
• 39166, 926, WPX, Pennington 16-15HA,
• 39458, 1,232, CLR, Arthur 4-12H,

Wells of interest:

• 17064, 514, MRO, Dan Tuhy 14-32H, Bailey, t6/08; cum 538K 9/23; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2023	30	20437	20401	26234	18243	18087	63
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	26634	26543	36439	22634	22230	302
BAKKEN	8-2023	28	13935	13866	40144	12705	12600	47
BAKKEN	7-2023	8	2055	2044	22354	2784	2748	23
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	4	125	266	79	263	125	111
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1284	1278	612	2876	2537	54

• 23699, 1,374, MRO, C.O. 34-20H, Bailey, t11/12; cum 407K9/23; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	20458	20457	36914	20811	20441	322
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	18181	18177	51506	16810	16543	222
BAKKEN	8-2023	29	16017	15970	60777	14495	14374	73
BAKKEN	7-2023	3	1156	1149	18684	982	969	9
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	7	244	379	128	322	241	18
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1145	1126	632	1459	1100	64

• 17417, 376, MRO, Olson 14-20H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 459K 9/23; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	15943	15938	41100	18404	18075	286
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	12831	12824	57126	13548	13330	181
BAKKEN	8-2023	28	10036	10082	46841	10320	10233	52
BAKKEN	7-2023	17	13613	13533	83099	13503	13317	128
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1336	1396	670	2696	2286	112
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	1244	1236	573	2406	1943	187
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1181	1099	567	2334	1754	301
BAKKEN	12-2022	27	961	985	439	1910	1595	96