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Thursday, November 30, 2023

GM Vs Ford — Paths Forward Diverge — November 30, 2023

Locator: 46210EVS.

GM: $10-billion buyback; increases dividend by 33%. Why? Why now? Not needed for EV ramp? That seems strange. This is huge story. Analysts aren’t addressing this. At least not so far.

F: reinstates guidance: says agreement with UAW will cost company almost $9 billion over life of contract. Debt issue: something different between F and GM? See debt graphic at this post.

Folks tell me I shouldn’t invest if I can’t read a financial statement. The linked post and Ford’s comments this week seem pretty clear.

Both will take a breather on EV development. 

CNBC analysts spot something interesting: Americans differentiate between EVs and Teslas. Very, very interesting observation. For Americans to buy non-ICE vehicles, the automobiles need to be cool. Teslas are cool. The other makes are not. Interesting observation.

Same with pick-ups and the Cyberbeast. The Cyberbeast is beyond cool. The other makes, at best, are simply utilitarian.

Tesla continues to raise the bar. It almost seems like GM and F need to go back to drawing board. 

EV acceptance hasn’t gotten past “early adopter” stage after a decade of pushing EVs.

A CNBC anchor didn’t complete his answer but, today, when asked directly he said he had an EV but it sounded like he almost said he didn’t have it any more. Facial expression and body language suggests he doesn’t have his EV any more.

For me: the options are “messy”: range, payload, motors, prices. And that’s true with all EVs. I just don’t get the feeling there’s pent-up demand for EVs. 

One New Permit; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 30, 2023

Locator: 46209B.

US field production: >13 million bopd for the second consecutive month.

Montana: judge says TikTok ban "likely" violates first amendment. Of course it does.  

OPEC+: The WSJ says OPEC+ agrees to "significant oil-production cut." No one believes that. 

Why is WTI so low? Link here. US days of supply, crude oil: 28.9 days. That's a month and doesn't include SPR.
Also, analysts, it seem, still don't understand how shale oil production works. It's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil. That's why I quit following Josh on twitter. For the three years I followed him, he was wrong.

AAPL: after being down all day, AAPL managed to eke out a minuscule gain at the close. Overall, tech had a bad day, some exceptions, but the Dow -- wow.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.66.

Active rigs: 40.

One new permit, #40359:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Beaver Lodge (Williams)
  • Comments: 
    • Hess has a permit for a BL-Davidson well in SESE 34-156-96, 
      • to be sited 650 FSL and 459 FEL.

Five producing wells (DICs) reported as completed:

  • 37849, 887, Slawson, Loon Federal 3-24-25H, Mountrail,
  • 37851, 624, Slawson, Loon Federal 6-24-25TFH, Mountrail,
  • 37853, 570, Slawson, Genekat FFederal 7-13-12TFH, Mountrail,
  • 39260, 85, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H 5,
  • 39261, 571, Hunt, Cook 1446-93-24-13H 6,

Re-Posting That Apple - Qualcom - 5G Modem Story -- November 30, 2023

Locator: 46208AAPL.

Updates

December 4, 2023: 6G modem -- link here.

  • maybe things are not as dire as some might suggest regarding the relationship between QCOM an AAPL
  • the writer at the link questions Apple's assertion that it has ended its own R&D on a 5G modem (that needs to be parsed)
  • interesting, interesting article: note the speculation in Intel -- something to watch
  • think about this: maybe Apple is looking to encourage another manufacturer of modems to compete with QCOM

Original Post 

Posted yesterday. Re-posting:

Apple: holy mackerel! Did I miss this story? Am I missing something? If I’m reading this correctly why is this story not getting move coverage? Anyone following QCOM? Link here. I’ll probably post this as a stand-alone post. QCOM is up 20% in the past month and represents one of my bigger tech holdings. P/E under 20; pays 2.5%. Long backstory

And, then there is this, link here:


A lot is packed into that story. Including a huge "thank you" to Joe Biden and the Inflation Reduction Act.

Squawk On The Street -- Sara Is Talking "Goldilocks" Economy -- November 30, 2023

Locator: 46207INV.

Updates

Later, 3:08 p.m. CT: think about this. Assume all the inflation, the state of the US economy after March, 2020, was due to supply chain issues, and now as of March 2024, there are no longer any supply chain issues. Think along that line. One has to come up with a reason for market action this past six months and so far I haven't heard any theories that make sense. My technical analysis:

Later, 2:49 p.m. CT: Dow closes up 520 points; S&P up 17 and the Nasdaq essentially flat (down 32 points). The VIX was also flat, closing at 12.89. For the archives, Elon Musk releases the first Cybertruck. Price still unknown. Most likely the highest of the high end, the CYBERBEAST: starts at $96,300 was released today. Most folks buying a Ford F-150 are probably paying $55K. See comments.

Later, 12:30 p.m. CT: throughout the day, the second most used word was "deflation." The most used word for the economy -- "Goldilocks."  With regard to the Fed and the economy, it breaks down to two groups, no surprise:

  • bankers, pessimists: soft, shallow recession almost guaranteed; a hard landing but perhaps not that hard;
  • optimists, tech analysis: no recession; based on data, the Fed should be cutting sooner than later;

Original Post

Link here. Look how fast CPI -- to include FOOD and ENERGY -- has fallen since January, this year, and the US debt and deficit have only increased. I still maintain inflation is not one-dimensional.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

S&P

  • gainers: of the ten, three are oil-related -- PSX, MRO, CVX
  • laggards: AAPL (45 cents -- LOL -- a laggard?)

Top tier CNBC anchors: Sara Eisen among a small handful.

  • Sara is talking about a "Goldilocks" economy today.

Top tier analysts: Tom Lee, Josh Brown among a very, very small handful.

Chicago PMI: holy mackerel. Link here for definition.

  • 55.8 vs 46 estimate
  • "a stratospheric number" for November; "red hot"
  • market turns down; S&P turns negative; Nasdaq turns negative -- that was "flash, momentary"
  • five minutes later: Dow surges 300 points; S&P green again; Nasdaq still down a small amount;
  • recession? What recession?


Housing: sales not indicating a recession. That's all you need to know. Everything else is background noise.

Inflation numbers: all looking incredibly good. Tea leaves suggest consumer prices are going to fall after Christmas -- and we will probably see that start to happen the Saturday before Christmas.

Unemployment: if unemployed right now, it's going to become difficult to get hired. 

Eurozone: inflation falls much more than expected. 

Bad news: CNBC seems to having trouble finding bad news for the economy.

Reminder:

  • NFL TNF tonight
  • Cybertruck tonight
  • the two will probably play out at the same time

Market opens:

  • Dow: up 166. SalesForce (CRM) accounts for almost all of this.
  • Nasdaq: up 5.
  • S&P:up 6.5.
  • WTI: $78.95.

Cramer:

  • Hormel's numbers horrible yesterday
  • explains why: has nothing to do with the consumer
  • again, a great analysis
  • has to do with deflation
  • turkey prices plummeted so fast, Hormel couldn't pass cost to consumer
  • result: Hormel took huge loss on turkeys at Thanksgiving
  • yes, so those folks hoping for disinflation / deflation may get their wish

Barron's:

Automobile manufacturers' letter to President Biden: despite all Biden's efforts, EVs are piling up. Americans not buying them. EVs way too expensive; gasoline too cheap.

Elon Musk: absolutely fascinating

  • unfiltered

Nvidia: I finally get it. What's the tectonic change in computing? 

Jensen Huang gets it. One word: reasoning. Sam Altman's work has proved computers can do it. This is earth-shattering
Elon Musk: AI is more dangerous than nuclear weapons. "We" regulate nuclear weapons. Elon is concerned. Jensen Huang seems to be unconcerned.
My hunch: they're talking past each other. One must remember that Elon says he cannot make the chips that Nvidia is able to make. This is why BRK / Buffett / Munger could never .... readers to fill in the blank

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Donut Shop

Our donut shop: best donuts in the neighborhood. We never leave without a "full box." The person behin the counter refuses to let the customer leave with "empty spaces" in the box. She fills all empty space with donut holes at no extra cost.

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The Movie Page

Maestro. Rex Reed review.

Carey Mulligan.

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The Book Page

My copy of Chris Skidmore's Richard III arrived yesterday. It felt different than the copy I read from the local library. Now, I see why. The library copy was an edition published in the US; the copy I got was published in England.

Of all the reading I've done, my "work" with Virginia Woolf, Brenda James' Shakespeare, and the War of the Roses, has been the most rewarding, most satisfying. 

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Apartment Living

A most interesting way of decorating one's garage. I love it.

Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List These Next Two Days -- Thursday, November 30, 2023

Locator: 46206B.

Reminder: Tesla's Cybertruck rolls out today -- ten trucks -- finally

  • we will get pricing information;
  • more importantly, we will finally get a look at "production models"

Abbvie: to buy ImmunoGen -- of course, IMGN is surging. Up $13; trading at $28.

Peter Zeihan: I'm a huge fan but in this case Peter Zeihan joins the mob that does not understand X.

"They" said it:

  • Iger: "I want to make better Marvel movies."
  • Elon: "I want to focus on interplanetary travel."

Dow-implied open: >200.

Cramer called it

The worse two hours on CNBC: Squawk Box. The last guy I to whom I want to listen when I wake up and turn on the telly -- Paul Ryan. And what's with the 5-day beard?

QCOM: stock to watch -- five days; one month; six months --

  • I've held a sizeable position for years; recently, Apple had me spooked
  • was up almost 2% yesterday
  • five days: flat
  • six months: uup 13%
  • one year: flat
CRM: surging
  • best performing stock this past year
  • responsible for almost the entire "gain" in Dow today
  • compare with BRK-B, one-year and five-year: I was surprised

Charlie Munger: folks may want to listen to his comments on Elon Musk

  • much could be said, but I will leave it at that
  • one will have endless opportunities on CNBC for the next 30 days
  • tag line: "Betsy Quick's last interview"
  • I assume "they" mean "Betsy Quick's last interview with Charlie Munger"

Slow news day?

  • Phil's top news story -- airlines lost baggage
    • early bag decision: being tried out in Houston
  • on the other side: massive passenger volumes for the airlines this year and going forward
  • wow! Sounds like Newark's airport is a disaster; makes me appreciate DFW more than I already did -- and I love DFW
    • will add sixth terminal -- which already sounds interesting

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.45.

Friday, December 1, 2023: 151 for the month; 151 for the quarter, 721 for the year
39911, conf, CLR, Arthur 11-12HSL1,
31767, conf, BR, Ivan 2-1-29MBH,

Thursday, November 30, 2023: 149 for the month; 149 for the quarter, 719 for the year
39626, conf, WPX, State of ND 10-3H1,
39311, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-153-99-1314H-6,
39310, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-153-99-1314H-7,
39173, conf, Liberty Resources, Sylvia N 158-93-16-14-3MBHX,
39146, conf, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-3H,

RBN Energy: utilities, other natural gas buyers dip toes in certifid / differentiated gas market 

The drive to minimize methane emissions along the natural gas value chain — and have entities like MiQ and Project Canary certify or differentiate natgas as “low-emissions” — may have started upstream with E&Ps eager to boost their environmental cred, but the effort also has been monitored closely by gas utilities, industrials and others that consume large volumes of gas, and regulators.
In what may be a hint of what’s to come, a number of initial deals for certified/differentiated gas have been announced and a handful of pilot programs are in the works.
In today’s RBN blog, we continue our examination of the emerging low-emissions natgas market with a look at “first-mover” gas buyers and regulatory bodies.