Headlines -- November 16, 2023

Locator: 46077HEADLINES.     

Gaza: Israel says tunnel shaft found.

Deflation: the market's next worry. It will be interesting to see how folks explain budget deficits and huge government debts lead to deflation. I thought it all led to hyperinflation.

EVs: it's not gonna be easy. China's rapid EV transition puts VW on track for its worst local sales in years.

Bud: sales plunge; US marketing chief steps down; 

Market:

• NVDA in buy range?
• INTC jumps to 17-month high
• EV startup Lucid enters lucrative SUV market with $80,000 Gravity
• AAPL back over $190 -- even CNBC anchors seemed surprised
• media giants are still getting hammered by TV ad market declines
• MacBook Pro 14-inch M3 Pro review: the go-to workhorse. Link here.
  

But does Hyundai have Apple Car Play?

Copper? Has the energy transition hit a wall? 

So much more.

Off-shore wind, link here. 

Filler -- Apple And Southern California -- November 16, 2023

Locator: 46076APPLE.     

Apple: MacBook Pro 14-inch M3 Pro review: the go-to workhorse. Link here. 

The 14-inch MacBook Pro with M3 Pro has a much more reasonable footprint -- and price tag -- than its larger sibling, but where it sits in the lineup is unexpectedly complicated.

Apple's M2 series MacBook Pro hit shelves a mere ten months ago. Now here we are, not just with the M3, but the M3 Pro and M3 Max as well.

In the new lineup, Apple has officially killed off the 13-inch MacBook Pro, introducing a tweaked 14-inch MacBook Pro with the M3 chip on the low end, a more capable version of the 14-inch MacBook Pro in the middle, and of course the 16-inch MacBook Pro on the high end.

Here, we're looking specifically at that middle-tier 14-inch MacBook Pro with M3 Pro processor.

But still no luck replacing the Qualcomm 5G modem. Link here. And here.

DFW: link here.

Thanksgiving costs: much better than last year. Sounds transitory to me.

Wholesale prices, or what retailers pay turkey suppliers, for a typical 16-pound bird are down 32% for the first week of November compared with last year, according to the research firm Urner Barry. The average retail price for a 16-pound turkey is $27.35, down 5.6% from last year, according to the Farm Bureau.

****************************
Tusk

Time for a musical interlude. 

Southern California.

Never get tired of this.

My alma mater.

It looks like this particular video has been cleaned up.

Case 30564, Slawson, Dockets -- December, 2023

Locator: 46075DOCKETS.    

From the December, 2023, hearing dockets:

Slawson, Big Bend oil field, Mountrail County:

• i) establish an overlapping 1600-acre unit: S/2 of the S/2 and lots 5, 6, 7, and 8 of section 9 and all of sections 16 and 21 - 152-91; two wells on that 1600-acre unit; and,
  
• ii) on each of two existing 1280-acre units, not less than four wells per spacing unit, one unit: sections 9 / 16 - 152-91; the other unit, sections 12 / 28 - 152-91;

The map:

Case 30589, Slawson -- December, 2023, Dockets

Locator: 46074DOCKETS.   

From the December, 2023, hearing dockets:

Slawson, Big Bend oil field, Mountrail County:

• i) on an existing 640-acre unit, section 22-152-91; not to exceed seven wells;
• ii) on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 27 / 34 - 152-91, not to exceed nine wells;

Currently:

• four wells in the 640-acre unit, section 22-152-91; and,
• four wells in the 1280-acre unit, sections 27 / 34 - 152-91

640-acre spacing unit, section 22:

• 38727, n/d, Sauger Federal 4-22H, Van Hook, t10/22; cum 100K 9/23;
• 18717, 1,306, Sauger Federal 1-22H, Van Hook, t4/0; cum 4442K 9/23;
• 21039, 626, Sauger Federal 3-22H, Van Hook, t11/11; cum 275K 9/23;
• 20107, 1,060, Sauger Federal 2-22H, Van Hook, t11/11; cum 397K 9/23;

1280-acre spacing unit, sections 27 and 34:

• 38726, n/d, Cannonball Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, t10/22; cum 128K 9/23;
• 18170, 1,382, Cannonball Federal 1-27-34H, Van Hook, t5/10; cum 526K 9/23; with recent jump in production;
• 21038, 454, Cannonball Federal 3-27-34H, Van Hook, t12/11; cum 592K 9/23;
• 20099, 1,080, Cannonball Federal 2-27-34H, Van Hook, t11/11; cum 439K 9/23; with recent jump in production;

The map:

Two New Permits; Thirteen Permits Renewed; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 16, 2023

Personal investing: I have been overweight in "oil" for decades but starting about two years ago I started becoming very aggressive in "diversifying" my portfolio. 

For a period of time in the past two years, I put absolutely no new money into "oil." Now, some exceptions (some opportunities are just to good to ignore). But, having said that, when WTI plunged today I was not eager to check my portfolio. I was surprised to find that my portfolio slumped ... 0.000333 or 0.03% today. Absolutely inconsequential, and reassures me, that at least for the moment, I am well protected from huge losses in oil. But it does prove that one can pivot if one wants. But, wow, it was emotionally difficult. Did CNBC help? Definitely.

***********************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $73.20.

Two new permits, #40343 - #40344, inclusive:

• Operator: KODA Resources
• Field: Fertile Valley (Divide)
• Comments: KODA Resources has permits for two Stout wells, NWNE 22-160-102, to be sited 335 FNL with one well 1800 FEL and the other 1765 FEL

Thirteen permits renewed:

• CLR (10): four Lancaster, two Marlene, two Shroeder, and two Sacramento permits, in Brooklyn, Elk, and Stoneview oil fields, Williams and McKenzie counties
• Liberty Resources (2): a Christine permit and an LTM permits, Enget Lake (Mountrail County);
• BR: a Fritz Falls permit, Murphy Creek, Dunn County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 31231, 0, BR, Gladstone 4-1-13MBH,
• 38839, n/d, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-34-7H,
• 39170, 947, WPX, Pennington 16-15HCL, Big Bend, the Pennington wells are tracked here.
  
• 39167, 768, WPX, Pennington 16-15-14HY, Big Bend, the Pennington wells are tracked here.

December, 2023 -- Hearing Dockets

Locator: 46072DOCKETS.  

December hearing dockets posted.

Link here. Won't load on Firefox on my Apple laptop. I uuse Safari or some other browser on my Apple laptop..

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

These are cases, not permits.

• Friday, December 15, 2023.
  
• Thursday, December 14, 2023, supplement.
  
• Thursday, December 14, 2023.
  
• Wednesday, December 13, 2023, supplement.
• Wednesday, December 13, 2023.

Wednesday, December 13, 2023
Seven pages

• 30538, Hess, one well,
  
• 30539, Hess, six wells,
• 30540, Neptune Operating, two wells,
• 30541, Phoenix Operating, three wells,
• 30542, Phoenix Operating, five wells,
• 30543, Hess, pooling,
• 30544, Hess, pooling,
• 30545, Hess, pooling,
• 30546, Hess, twelve wells,
• 30547, Hess, commingling,
• 30548, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
• 30549, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
• 30550, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
• 30551, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
• 30552, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
• 30553, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
• 30554, Grayson Mill, commingling,
• 30555, Grayson Mill, commingling,
• 30556, MRO, commingling, 
• 30557, MRO, commingling, 
• 30558, Grayson Mill, SWD,
• 30559, Phoenix Operating, pooling 
• 30560 Phoenix Operating, SWD,
  

Wednesday, December 13, 2023, supplement.
Three pages

 All continued cases.

Thursday, December 14, 2023.
Eleven pages

The cases:

• 30561, EOG, two wells;
• 30562, EOG, one well;
• 30563, Enerplus, five wells;
• 30564, Slawson, eight wells; see this post;
  
• 30565, spacing
• 30566, injection
• 30567, termination of operations
• 30568, termination of operations
• 30569, Houillion Family LP, suspend operations
• 30570, CLR, location of equipment
• 30571, EOG, pooling,
• 30572, EOG, pooling,
• 30573, EOG, pooling,
• 30574, EOG, pooling,
• 30575, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30576, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30577, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30578, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30579, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30580, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30581, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30582, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30583, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30584, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30585, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30586, Enerplus, pooling,
• 30587, Liberty Resources, commingling,
• 30588, Liberty Resources, commingling,
• 30589, Slawson, sixteen wells; see this post for details.
  
• 30590, Slawson, pooling,
• 30591, Slawson, pooling,
• 30592, Slawson, pooling,
• 30593, Slawson, pooling,
• 30594, Slawson, pooling,
• 30595, Slawson, pooling,
• 30596, Slawson, risk penalty
• 30597, Slawson, risk penalty
• 30598, Morgan E&P LLC, pooling,
• 30599, K T Enterprises LLC, SWD
• 30600, KODA Resources, SWD,
• 30601, KODA Resources, SWD,
• 30602, KODA Resources, SWD,
• 30603, CLR, SWD
  

Thursday, December 14, 2023, supplement.
Two continued cases

Friday, December 15, 2023 

One case:

• Case 30604. Personal issue with production allocations.
  

Apple's Vision Pro Technology Already Being Used By USAF -- November 16, 2023

Locator: 46071APPLE.  

From the September, 2023, issue of Combat Aircraft, page 59. Tag: Vision Pro, F-35.

Mid-Afternoon Market — November 16, 2023

Locator: 46070SWIFT.  

Taylor Swift: more records. One concert: 29 terabytes of data.

AT&T’s network alone moved 28.9 terabytes of data during the busiest day of Taylor’s three-day tour stop at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Set 10 of 13 new records. The other records? NFL championship games. 

The company estimates 1TB of data represents about 200,000 photos or 400 hours of video moving across its network. 28.9TB is a staggering amount of photo and video sharing. [Think cloud, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA.]

That’s the most data AT&T’s network has moved at any stadium for any event this year — the average Cowboys game day at the stadium moves about 21 terabytes of data. 

Swifties also moved record amounts of AT&T data at various other stadium tour stops: 23 terabytes of data at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, 12 terabytes of data at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and 8.6 terabytes at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

Other headlines:

AAPL: dividend today? 

Air travel: finally. The only thing that can explain that uptick in air travel: fans flying to Taylor Swift concerts. It is amazing mainstream media cannot connect the dots.

Copper: whoo-hoo! Compare “max,” SCCO vs FCX.

Samsung Drops Smart Monitor Price -- Gonna Be A Great Christmas -- November 16, 2023

Locator: 46069APPLE. 

Link here.

Inflation? What inflation. Now, the concern is deflation. Exhibit A:

Let's see: $699.99 - $399.99 =  ..... a 43% discount. Wow.

Newest model of the series / family.

Hell Just Froze Over -- LOL -- Does "Green" Go Away? November 16, 2023

Locator: 46068APPLE.

Link here.

According to Apple, RCS will "work alongside iMessage" and will improve communication between iPhone and Android users. iMessage will continue to be the default for ‌iPhone‌ to ‌iPhone‌ communication, with RCS serving as a replacement for the existing SMS and MMS standards. SMS and MMS will remain available as a fallback when necessary, though.

Rich Communication Services is a communication protocol designed by and adopted by Google. Smartphone makers and carriers worldwide have adopted RCS, but Apple has been resisting its adoption. Google has been pushing Apple to accept RCS through a long-running ad campaign involving billboards, a website, social media pressure, and more.

Google has had a "Get the Message" website since August 2022, with the site calling on Apple to "fix what's broken" in texts between ‌iPhone‌ and Android users. Earlier this year, even Samsung got into the PR campaign, publishing a bizarre ad where "Romeo" with his green bubbles and "Juliet" with her blue bubbles were unable to be together because of Apple's hesitation to adopt RCS.

"Green bubbles and blue bubbles want to be together," read Samsung's ad, which also included the #GetTheMessage hashtag Google used for its social media push.

Compared to MMS and SMS, the standards that Apple uses for text messages, RCS supports higher resolution photos and videos, audio messages, and bigger file sizes. It also adds improved encryption for chats between ‌iPhone‌ and Android users, cross-platform emoji reactions, and more reliability for group chats across different devices.

The Market -- Mid-Day -- Thursday, November 16, 2023

Locator: 46067INV. 

Boeing: crushes Airbus.

Meme of the day: link here.

WTI: down another 5% today. Down 16% in the past month. Where did all that $150-oil talk go? This is exactly why I quit following Josh over at twitter months ago.

Holy mackerel: NASDAQ (tech) just turned positive. AAPL about to hit $190. MSFT hits an all-time high. Again.

Lock 'em up: link here.

Walmart: beware deflation this holiday period.

Best strategic advisors ever: missed this year.

Keep facts together: the Palestinians are rooting for the IDF.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

WPX Skunk Creek Wells -- Random Update -- November 16, 2023

Locator: 46066WPXSKUNK.

The Skunk Creek wells are tracked here. They have not been updated in a long time.

Updated map of some of the Skunk Creek wells:

The WPX Spotted Rabbit Wells -- At Least One With A Great Jump In Production -- November 16, 2023

Locator: 46065WPXRABBIT.

The wells:

• 18963, 1,345, WPX, Spotted Rabbit 14-23H, Van Hook, t4/11; cum 519K 6/23; off line;
• 24953, 1,592, WPX, Spotted Rabbit 14-23HY, Van Hook, t8/13; cum 398K 6/23; just returning to production;
• 24954, 1,638, WPX, Spotted Rabbit 14-23HW, Van Hook, t8/13; cum 435K 6/23; just returning to production; nice jump in production;
• 39586, conf, WPX, Spotted Rabbit 14-23HI, just beginning to report production;

***************************
The Maps

*****************************
Production

• 24954, 5,032 bbls over 16 days extrapolates to 9,435 bbls over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	16	5032	4932	20369	3598	3476	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	0	30	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	18	734	798	1102	657	564	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1376	1398	1855	1389	1228	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	1305	1293	1612	1395	1249	1
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1737	1801	1981	1855	1694	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	1597	1601	2289	1762	1614	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	1639	1614	1927	1994	1557	281

• 39586,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	6531	4234

Thursday -- November 16, 2023

Locator: 46064INV. 

China: backed itself into a deflationary corner.

UAW: ratifies GM deal. Others still voting.

Bidenomics: even Joe Kernan, CNBC, is asking the right questions; he's starting to get it. LOL. The question some folks now asking, "is it really this good?"

China vs Biden: surprise.

Stocks vs bonds? Stocks are more appealing than bonds. MMFs looking less attractive. 

Tea leaves: new car prices hold, maybe come down significantly. Moments after posting that, this popped up:

AAPL: looking good. Really quite amazing, considering. Why? That standing ovation for Xi.

WMT: at $1.53 missed by a wide margin whisper earnings number of $1.60; soft guidance. Down as much as $10 on a $170-share company.

MSFT: hits a new all-time high. Best investment decision I made in the last 18 months: MSFT.

Dow: was slightly green; now red. WMT spooked the market. 

Personal investing, today:

• bought CVX
• bought WMT
• bought DVN 

 Best hour on CNBC: 11:00 to 12:00 a.m. CT.  "Halftime Report." Even better than "Fast Money" and "Mad Money."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.  

Hamas: is on its own. No regional power will go to aid of Hamas, not even Hezbollah. Early strikes by US on Syrian-Iranian targets have ensured Iran thinks carefully about its military actions going forward. The Xi-Biden "summit" kept global saber-rattling to a minimum. Peter Zeihan.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.91. Whatever happened to all that $150-oil talk?

Friday, November 17, 2023: 121 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 691 for the year
39837, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 9-18HSL2,

Thursday, November 16, 2023: 120 for the month; 120 for the quarter, 690 for the year
39586, conf, WPX, Spotted Rabbit 14-23HI,

RBN Energy: will the TMX project narrow the price discount for western Canada's heavy oil?

Wider price discounts for Western Canadian heavy crude oil have been weighing on its oil producers for the past few months. This appears to be the result of a combination of weak refinery demand, rapidly rising oil production and insufficient oil takeaway capacity from Western Canada. A more permanent solution for wider discounts might be to increase pipeline export capacity to ensure that rising oil production has more options to reach markets. In today’s RBN blog, we consider the pending startup of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX) as a means to do just that.

Western Canada’s heavy crude oil pricing situation is in a funk once again. In just a few months, the discount for its heavy oil benchmark Western Canadian Select (WCS) at the Alberta trading hub of Hardisty has sunk from a historically tight $10/bbl versus WTI at Cushing, OK, to more than $28/bbl by early November — a near tripling of the discount. When placed in the context of WTI prices that have held between $75/bbl and $85/bbl over the same time span, that additional $15 to $20 discount is taken right off the top for some heavy crude oil producers and has become an all-too-common conversation topic on those same producers’ quarterly earnings calls in recent weeks.