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Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Memories -- November 15, 2023

Locator: 46063BUC-EES.

Oh, before I get started and before I forget. Announced today: Buc-ee's and Mercedes have partnered to put in EV charging stations at all Buc-ee's service stations. Apparently there are 34 Bucc-ee's in Texas and twelve across the rest of the US -- mostly between here and Nashville / Chattanooga. Bucc-ee's goal is to have EV charging stations at 31 of their 46 sites. 

Now, back to regular programming. 

No Bakken tonight.

It's a USAF night.

Yeah, I know, Top Gun was a US Navy movie. 

Combat Aircraft.

We will meet again.


Clever ideas.

Of The Ten Best Ski Resorts In North America, The Ski Resort North Of Flathead Lake Ranks #9 -- November 15, 2023

Locator: 46062SKI.

Link to The WSJ

For me it's #1.

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A Girl's Best Friend

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Only You


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Harvard 

Radcliffe is Harvard.

Folks whose alma mater is Harvard / Radcliffe really are something special.

Over and over and over when reading the wiki bio of someone that captures me attention, that person attended Harvard. Not MIT. Not Yale. Not Princeton. But Harvard.  It's truly amazing.

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10

Bonnie Tyler.

Random Update Of A Few EOG Liberty LR Wells In Parshall Oil Field -- November 15, 2023

Locator: 46061EOGLIBERTY.

These wells are tracked here
.

The map:

Some of the wells:

  • 19721, 1,063, EOG, Liberty LR 19-23H, Parshall, t3/11; cum 433K 9/23; jump in production; F;
  • 20255, 892, EOG, Liberty LR 15-26H, Parshall, t4/12; cum 422K 9/23;
  • 20254, 980, EOG, Liberty LR 20-26H, Parshall, t12/11; cum 393K 9/23;
  • 38325, conf, EOG, Liberty LR 56-2320H, t--; cum --;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20233719432352
8-20235357747538
  • 30595, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 30-3220H, Parshall,
  • 38329, exp, EOG, Liberty LR 62-2329H, Parshall,
  • 40297, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 75-2629H, Parshall,

EOG With Three New Permits -- November 15, 2023

Locator: 46060GASOLINEDEMAND.

Gasoline demand: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $76.66.

Three new permits, #40340 - #40342, inclusive:

  • Operator: EOG
  • Field: Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • EOG has permits for three Liberty Long Reach (LR) wells, SENW 26-151-91, 
      • to be sited between 1781 FNL andd 1885 FNL and between 2250 FWL and 2310 FWL

The EOG Libery LR wells are tracked here, but have not been updated in a long time:

Eleven permits renewed:

  • Foundation Energy (5): five Trotter state / federal permits, Cinnamon Creek (McKenzie)
  • Hunt (3): a Palermo permit, Ross (Mountrail); two Halliday permits, Werner (Dunn)
  • BR (2): two Statte Dodge permits, Dimmick Lake (McKenzie)
  • CLR: a Ravin permit, Dimmick Lake (McKenzie)

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39168, 917, WPX, Pennington 16-15HB,
  • 39169, 1,024, WPX, Pennington 16-15-14HZ,
  • 39452, 2,220, CLR, Edward 13-23HSL,
  • 39057, 1,393, CLR, Vance 2-14H,

Dry hole:

  • 36705, dry, Hess, BL-Ameeelia-156-95-1514H-7,

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With Regard To The New EOG Permits

The map:

Some of the wells:

  • 19721, 1,063, EOG, Liberty LR 19-23H, Parshall, t3/11; cum 433K 9/23; jump in production; F;
  • 20255, 892, EOG, Liberty LR 15-26H, Parshall, t4/12; cum 422K 9/23;
  • 20254, 980, EOG, Liberty LR 20-26H, Parshall, t12/11; cum 393K 9/23;
  • 38325, conf, EOG, Liberty LR 56-2320H, t--; cum --;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20233719432352
8-20235357747538
  • 30595, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 30-3220H, Parshall,
  • 38329, exp, EOG, Liberty LR 62-2329H, Parshall,
  • 40297, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 75-2629H, Parshall,

According To Experts -- November 15, 2023

Locator: 46059INV. 

For traders, maybe investors, according to experts -- the best time for money managers to start getting out of cash is two months before "the Fed pauses." 

If that's accurate, traders should have started getting out of cash two months ago -- LOL. Investors still have a bit of time, though if investors weren't fully invested one week ago (I'm talking to Warren Buffett and his horde of cash, earning what -- maybe 5%?), those investors certainly missed a huge two-day surge. Shoot, just putting that $150 billion into TGT a week ago would have earned Buffett 17% (about $25 billion) overnight.

Tech companies like Apple need a huge hoard of cash, or second best, access to a huge hoard of cash. If you know, you know.

Mutual funds, hedge funds, investment companies have no excuse for holding large hoards of cash. There, I've said it.

And I know I'm correct.

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Reverential

That's the word that flashed across in front of my eyes when this song came up in rotation.

I grew up on the Missouri, but never paid much attention to it. I never knew how lucky I was.

And then over the years, the Mississippi River crossed my mind many times, but I don't ever recall much about the Mississippi but I obviously came in contact with it a few times during the years. 

But now that we have a granddaughter at Vanderbilt, we have cross the Mississippi River numerous times on our cross-country trips to visit her. Each time we cross the river, it seems more magical, more sublime.

When Arianna graduates and moves on, it's very possible we will never cross the Mississippi into Tennessee again. Memories will be bittersweet.


Every time I hear this song, I will think of Arianna, Nashville, yesterday and the river. One wonders about Mark Twain and Ulysses S Grant.

Data Center News -- November 15, 2023

Locator: 46058TECH.

Big winner in tech today: TSM. Let that sink in. Folks just don't know it yet.

Data center news:

  • no update on that new data center in Williams County; dead? Maybe a reader knows.
  • meanwhile, Ellendale, ND

Applied Digital Corp. has broken ground on its first 100-megawatt high-performance computing facility that will be located about 1 mile west of Ellendale.

The announcement was made Tuesday, Oct. 31, on Applied Digital’s website.

The facility is designed and built for artificial intelligence workloads such as generative AI, natural language processing, machine learning, rendering and traditional high-performance computing applications.

There will be 80 megawatts of IT (information technology) load but it's designed so that every rack in the building can be within 30 meters of the network core.

Meanwhile, to recap:

SRE's Port Arthur LNG Export Terminal At Risk -- November 15, 2023

Locator: 460578B. 

These cases are never "moved" to the US Supreme Court.


In the big scheme of things, a non-story.

The November Dashboards

Locator: 46057B.

The dashboards:

Target, Amazon -- Same Day Delivery -- November 15, 2023

Locator: 46056INV. 

Link here.

There are so many story lines -- my takeaway -- on this issue -- same day delivery:

focus:

  • Target (grocery / perishable)
  • Amazon (non-perishable)

inventory:

  • Amazon: unlimited (third party scalable)
  • Walmart: vast
  • Target: not so much

gap:

  • the gap between Amazon and Target is huge;
  • advantage: Amazon

future:

  • Amazon: same-day delivery has been accomplished; now growing in different areas
  • Target: same day delivery -- huge expense

business model for same-day delivery:

  • Amazon: robots, drones, automation, less hands-on
  • Target: hands-on intensive; personnel costs are going to surge
  • two years ago: our local Target store had no folks filling online orders
  • now: half-a-dozen minimum-wage employees filling online orders 12 hours/day
  • Amazon: open 24/7
  • Target: open?

bottom line:

  • same-day delivery: imperative; becomes a "commodity" going forward; no longer a discriminator among Amazon, Walmart, Target
    • personnel costs for Target/Walmart will be much greater than Amazon for same-day delivery
  • at the end of the day, it's all about inventory / availability and price

ICYMI -- November 15, 2023

Locator: 46055INV.  

Link here.

Link here. My favorite chart.

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Autumn Chores



Back To The Bakken -- November 15, 2023

Locator: 46054B.   

Weekly EIA petroleum report: link here.

  • crude oil inventories: 439.4 million bbls; increased by 3.6 million bbls w/w; 2% below average
  • imports: 3.3% more than y/y
  • refiners: 86.1%
  • distillate fuel inventories: 13% below five-year average
  • jet fuel supplied: up 14.0% y/y

Report from November 1, 2023:

  • crude oil inventories: 421.9 million bbls; increased by 0.8 million bbls w/w; 5% below average

Back-of-envelope:

  • there was no report last week
  • API reported a huge build in crude oil supplies last week;
  • let's see what EIA would have reported
    • November 15: 439.4
    • November 8: ?
    • November 1: 421.9
      • November 15: up 3.6
      • November 8: 439.4 - 3.6 = 435.8
  • November 8 435.8 - November 1 421.9 = a whopping build of 13.9 million bbls which was in line with the API data and this was the week EIA decided NOT to issue a report suggesting they need to revise their definitions and formulas:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI:  $77.52.

Thursday, November 16, 2023: 120 for the month; 120 for the quarter, 690 for the year
39586, conf, WPX, Spotted Rabbit 14-23HI,

Wednesday, November 15, 2023: 119 for the month; 119 for the quarter, 689 for the year
39852, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Hovden Federal 5-20H, 

RBN Energy: midstream business strategies differ depending on their corporate structure.

Much like their upstream counterparts, midstream companies have shifted to fiscal conservatism over the past few years, focusing less on growth and capital investment and more on shareholder returns, acquisitions and debt reduction. But there are significant differences between the strategies of midstream companies set up as traditional corporations, or C-corps, and those established as master limited partnerships, or MLPs. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our short series on midstream company cash flow allocation with an analysis of their reinvestment rates vs. their shareholder payouts.

Why Did Nvidia Just Crash? November 15, 2023.

Locator: 46055INV. 

Link here.

And this is why it's literally impossible for mom-and-pop "traders" to beat the traders on Wall Street. I saw NVDA fall this a.m. -- it was "UP" a few minutes earlier and TECH stayed UP suggesting something strange was going on with Nvidia.

Now we know.

So, today, personal investing. Just a note. I am now reporting all my "buys" and "sells" on the day I make them.

Today:

  • bought WMT
  • bought CHRD
  • bought NVDA -- a nice opportunity; I had not planned to buy more NVDA today
  • I did not buy a second tranche of BA as planned yesterday; I will wait for the market "to settle down";

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.  



So it appears, one could have bought SCCO and handily beat BRK. And collected hefty dividends from SCCO along the way. Just saying.

We won't even show the BRK-NVDA comparison. I don't want to get too depressed.