Locator: 45809B.
From the November, 2023, hearing dockets, this case (again, a case, not a permit):
The map:
Producing wells in the area:
Locator: 45808SPORTS.
Incredibly exciting. Wow.
The NLCS is tied, 3 - 3. Seventh and deciding game tomorrow night.
Morning, next day: without question, best sports entertainment so far this autumn. I’m even watching re-runs (no pun intended) but the Rangers had a lot (of runs).
Locator: 45807GAZA.
This story has been removed from the internet, as far as I can tell. It speaks volumes about reporters and editors. Interestingly enough, this was spotted by our younger daughter; there were no comments at the original story mentioning the "American terrorists."
Locator: 45806B.
Updates
October 24, 2023: in today's daily activity report, a seventh MRO permit was added to the six in the original post below, #40290, a Grayson 41-13TFH well, to be sited 451 FNL and 1121 FEL.
Original Post
From today's daily activity report:
Six new permits, #40284 - #40289, inclusive:
Wells already sited in that section:
The map:
The six new wells will be sited 451/452 FNL and between 881 FEL and 1081 FEL:
Locator: 45805B.
WTI: recovers to $86.01 after hours.
Fisker: big news today -- and it wasn't good for Fisker. Fisker down 2.6% today. Link to Barron's.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 38.
WTI: $85.49.
Six new permits, #40284 - #40289, inclusive:
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
Locator: 45804INV.
Tag: economy, jobs, goldilocks, Bidenomics, GDP, surging.
I think "everyone" knows who Dr Jeremy Siegel is.
3% inflation. Target: 2%
Bidenomics.
Locator: 45803INV.
While writing this blog a reader asked about publicly-traded E&P companies with market cap of $25 billion to $75 billion. Two names plus two more names that are less than $25 billion but still interesting:
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Links
Seven best energy stocks now -- today -- September 6, 2023.
Oil Permian players take a dip into gas-rich plays -- September 16, 2022.
A handful of Permian Basin producers known for their oil output are moving to test the Barnett Shale and other gassy zones on their acreage as stronger commodity prices support delineation.
Most recently, Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield said last week the company would begin testing the Barnett and Woodford formations deep in its Midland subbasin acreage next year.
“It’s important to understand what we have, where natural gas prices may end up long term,” Sheffield said at the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference, noting that returns from the gassier formations may not be as good as those in the Spraberry-Wolfcamp oil plays. He also said that while the formations have been tested on the eastern and western edges of the Midland, they have yet to be delineated in the deeper parts of the subbasin.
Other oil-heavy operators, including Occidental Petroleum, Continental Resources, and Diamondback Energy have filed permits with Texas regulators this year to drill the Barnett. Occidental has also filed permits to drill the Devonian and Mississippian plays as well, regulatory data show.
Civitas:
Locator: 45802MORTGAGES.
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Flashback
Back on November 23, 2022 -- almost exactly one year ago I wrote, as a "thought experiment from a naive capitalist." Not one person challenged me on this this entire past year. Here's what I wrote:
On buying a house, these are my observations for folks in my socioeconomic demographic:
With "free money" or interest rates at zero percent:
With "expensive money" or interest rates at twelve percent:
Experts / realtors will tell folks to buy the "most" house they can afford
Monthly cash outflow:
$600 / month =
The first two years will be incredibly tough, very painful for the family.
At the end of the first two years, the family will become used to meeting the monthly mortgage.
By the third year, the family may, in fact, have more disposable income than they did two years earlier
Interest rates tend to cycle, fluctuate, change (not always, granted).
If the family buys the $600,000-house for $400,000 with "expensive money" they will be in a very different place two years after they buy the house than if the family buys a $400,000-house for $600,000 with "free money.
Now, break, break. Where would you rather be two years from now: in a $400K house you bought for $600K with "free money" or in a $600K house you bought for $400K with "expensive money."
We're going to stop here and come back to this tomorrow.
My thoughts may be very naive, but playing devil's advocate this is where I am right now in this thought experiment.
I thought about this on November 5, 2022, just three weeks ago, and I posted a short note on the blog at the time.
Investing: best years of investing in front of us.
Consider the source, a goldbug, but I can't disagree.
"Expect five years more of problematic inflation."
Two points:
- the gap between investors and savers will widen immensely;
- this year and next will be the best two years to buy a new house.
My
thoughts have not changed. I think I'm right on this. It works in an
interest rate environment between 0% and 6%. I'm not sure if it would
work in a 14-percent environment like we had under the Carter
administration.
This "thought experiment" came up again today with the release of the University of Michigan's monthly "Surveys of Consumers.
But for now, ask yourself where you would rather be in 2026:
If the "$400,000-house" and the "$600,000-house" analogy is confusing or doesn't make sense, substitute the phrase "the most house you can afford" for the dollar figure.
And this whole thought experiment might not make any sense to anyone but me, but I'll come back to it tomorrow to see where my thinking is faulty.
It should be fun.
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Now, An Update
Contrary to what many are saying, it might not be a bad time to buy a house.
That's because buyers waiting for rates to drop may be waiting a long time.
When mortgage rates do go down, competition and demand are set to come roaring back.
By many metrics, the US housing market has never been more unaffordable, and all of the prevailing wisdom right now says buyers should wait it out, either for mortgage rates to drop or prices to come down.
And yet, there's an argument to be made for getting in now if you can find something, even amid 20-year high mortgage rates and stubbornly high prices.
Mortgage rates at 8% have sidelined a good portion of the competition. While it might not seem like it, the current landscape might be more of a buyer's market than in recent years, particularly compared with the height of the pandemic when sellers could demand any contingencies be waived, and buyers were snapping up homes sight unseen.
More importantly, though, the lack of competition now means that when borrowing costs do ease, buyers can expect a flood of pent-up demand to wash over the market. "The days of the 2%-3% interest rates are never going to come back. Forget about that. But they will come down," the "Shark Tank" investor and real-estate mogul Barbara Corcoran said in a post on Instagram this week.
"The minute they drop and come to anything with a five in front of it, the whole world's going to jump back in the market. There's going to be no houses around, and prices are going to go up by 10% or even 15%. So don't get out of the market. This is the very best time," she said.
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Bottom Line
Ask yourself where you would rather be in 2026:
Hint: there's no correct answer.
But don't expect to see 2% mortgages any time soon. And when you do, you're going to need a lot of cash to outbid your competitor who is looking to buy the new house.
November hearing dockets posted.
Link here. Won't load on Firefox. Use Safari or some other browser.
The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.
The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.
These are cases, not permits.
Wednesday, November 15, 2023
Eleven Pages
Wednesday, November 15, 2023, supplement
Two pages
Thursday, November 16, 2023
Six pages
Locator: 45801EOG.
EOG is tracked here but has not been updated in a long time.
EOG's center of activity in the Bakken is Mountrail County, specifically Parshall oil field. Of the four Bakken counties in the Bakken, Mountrail is #4, behind McKenzie, Williams and Dunn.
Number of new permits in North Dakota as off October 20, 2023:
EOG permits.
New EOG wells reporting:
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For The Archives: EOG
Reuters, January 6, 2023: EOG eyes flat Permian activity, tighter global supply in 2023. Link here.
MineralAnswers, October 23, 2023: Mountrail County, ND, ranks #4 in the state for BOE produced for most recent month (July, 2023). Link here.
NGI,, November 8, 2022: EOG expands into Utica shale, touts global natural gas, oil pricing exposure; $5000 million for 395,000 net acres and 135,000 mineral acres. Link here.
Insight, Decemmber 8, 2022; EOG's latest premium play? "The Utica Combo." Link here.
Locator: 45800B.
NEWS
Tesla: link here. DOJ seeks documents on driving range (but look at the URL).
The company's spending is, however, expected to return to the $7 billion and $9 billion range in the next two years, a regulatory filing showed.
Tesla was hesitating on its plans for a factory in Mexico as it grapples with a turbulent economic outlook, CEO Elon Musk said in an earnings call earlier this month.
Saudi perspective: Saudi Arabia's Mideast dream in tatters. Bloomberg. Hamas atrocities in Israel.
Apple: to lose everything it has on mainland China — Peter Zeihan. Link here.
Liz: Link here. Merry Christmas.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $87.02. It appears the US has settled things down in the Mideast. Business back to normal.
Tuesday, October 24, 2023: 59 for the month; 59 for the quarter, 629 for the year
39678, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Getzlaf 3-25-36-158N-101W-MBH, Little Muddy,
38092, conf, Enerplus, Baleen 148-93-05A-06H, McGregory Buttes,
37449, conf, Hess, EN-Abrahamson-LE-155-93-3019H-1,
34221, conf, BR, Abercrombie 3-8-12 MBH, Elidah,
Monday, October 23, 2023: 55 for the month; 55 for the quarter, 625 for the year
39845, conf, Kraken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 5H, Hebron,
39679, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Getzlaf 2-25-36-158N-101W-MBH,
39635, conf, SWD, Dakota Fluid Solutions
Sunday, October 22, 2023: 52 for the month; 52 for the quarter, 622 for the year
39680, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Farthing 5-30-31-158N-100W-MBH-LLW,
38276, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-009H-2, Blue Buttes,
RBN Energy: shifting natural gas and power market fundamentals driving storage values.
Storage has long been a critically important balancing mechanism in the Lower 48 natural gas market. Now, after languishing for much of the Shale Era, storage values are coming out of the doldrums. The key driver behind this change is that, unlike in the old days, when the storage market was driven primarily by the intrinsic value of capacity — i.e., the need to sock away gas in the lower-demand summer months for use in the peak winter months — the value of storage is being driven almost exclusively by extrinsic economics — i.e., how flexible and responsive capacity allows market participants to manage supply and demand during short-term market swings. This flexibility and responsiveness have become increasingly important criteria for ensuring reliability as LNG export facilities and an increasingly renewables-heavy power sector navigate frequent demand fluctuations day to day, or even intraday, as well as during high-stakes, extreme weather events like 2021’s Winter Storm Uri. In today’s RBN blog, we delve into the fundamental shifts influencing today’s storage market.
In Part 1, we began with a history of the various phases of the Lower 48 storage market, including the gas storage heyday, when deregulation and a scarcity mindset led to a big build-out of storage capacity in the late 2000s and early 2010s. That gave way to a Dark Age for storage in the late 2010s when the near-perfection of shale drilling technology and an era of supply abundance left the market with too much storage capacity and depressed storage values. More recently, storage has been making a comeback, but as we concluded in the earlier blog, things are different this time around.
Locator: 45799ECON.
Source: 4.7% estimate, 3Q23 GDP.
Gross domestic product advanced at a 4.3% annualized pace in July-September, 2023. Estimate. To be reported this week.
Such growth illustrates that the US remains the global economic powerhouse as Europe stagnates and Asia contends with a struggling China.
Personal consumption, the primary engine of the US economy, is projected to advance at a 4% rate. Resilient demand is testing the policy skills of Fed officials after nearly two years of interest-rate hikes. While inflation is well off its peak, price pressures are still running almost twice as fast as their goal.
Thursday’s GDP report won’t be enough to nudge the Fed toward a November rate increase, but sustained spending momentum in the fourth quarter would likely raise the prospects for additional tightening around the turn of the year.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Locator: 45798CVX.
Hess is tracked here. Hasn't been updated in over a year.
$53 billion.
Market cap: $50 billion at close Friday.
Pre-market trading: Hess up one dollar.
Dividend to increase 8% in a couple of months.
Merry Christmas.
Peter Zeihan. Apparently the Bakken is not dead.
Offer: 10% premium.
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2Q23 Earnings Presentation
Guyana: Stabroek Block
Bakken (see slides):
