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Sunday, October 15, 2023

US Domestic Oil Production Hit An All-Time Record Last Month, August, 2023

Locator: 45791USA. 

Barrels of oil per day. BOPD.

The EIA will update their chart this week (?). The previous high was 13,000,000 bbls of crude oil per day (bopd) back in November, 2019, just before the Covid-19 lock down. 

The last month the EIA has posted data: 12,991,000 bbls crude oil per day (bopd), July, 2023. 

The new record: 13.2 million bbls crude oil per day (bopd), August, 2023.

So, in 1,000s bbls per day (bopd):

  • November, 2019: 13,000.
  • July, 2023: 12,991.
  • August, 2023, 13,200.

EIA dashboards:

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And No One Even Did The Math For The Story -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45790CANADA.

No one did the math. If the math was done, I missed it.

Link here.

Back-of-the-envelope:

  • $26 billion x 4% interest first year = $1 billion
  • $26 billion / 30 years amortization = $900,000,00 -- let's just call it a billion.
  • So, the first year: $2 billion just to pay for the pipe -- nothing about continuing operations and maintenance, GS&A
  • $2 billion / 365 days = $5.5 million / day
  • 300,000 bopd right now = about $17 / bbl
  • plan: to 900,000 bopd in the future = about $6 / bbl

So, right now, about $17 / bbl of oil; in future, could be under $6 / bbl.

Wiki: cost to transport oil --

  • rail: $10 - $15
  • pipeline: $5

Disclaimer:

  • I often make simple arithmetic errors;
  • with this many zeroes, I often put the decimal in the wrong spot
  • the calculations were based on only one or two numbers given in the story; many assumptions;
  • if this is important to youu, go to the source.
  • needs to be fact-checked. [Another list.]

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Halloween Candy 


By state: link here.
  • North Dakota: Hot Tamales. Which, by the way, are my favorite non-chocolate treat. Favorite chocolate treat: Reese’s.

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Ford Slows Production -- Barron's Weighs In -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45789UAW.

See this note from earlier.

UAW strike in its fourth week.

  • it appears to be a race to see who can idle the most workers the fastest: management (layoffs); union (strike).

Now, this, today, from Barron's:  

From the linked article:

Figuring out what’s going on at Ford Motor or the other Detroit-Three auto makers isn’t easy.
Everything needs to be filtered through labor negotiations, a slowing economy, supply-chain issues, and the electric vehicle transition.
Take Ford’s decision to slow production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup trucks. The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that Ford was canceling a shift at its Rouge assembly complex in Dearborn, Michigan, citing a memo from the United Auto Workers.
UAW officials blamed falling sales. The Union didn’t respond to a request for comment about the memo.
Canceling an entire shift due to weak demand might be an overstatement. “We are adjusting the schedule at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center because of multiple constraints, including the supply chain and working through processing and delivering vehicles held for quality checks after restarting production in August,” Ford said in an emailed statement.

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The Sports Page

Holy mackerel!

NFL.

The New York Jets (2-3) beat the Philadelphia Eagles (5 - 0)!

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The Sports Page

Holy mackerel!

NFL.

The Cleveland Browns (2-2) beat the San Francisco 49ers (5 - 0) by two points!

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The Sports Page

A bit of trivia.

NBA.

Charlotte Hornets.

Michael Jordan. Sold the franchise earlier this year.


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My Favorite Chart -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45789BANKS.

Updates

October 23, 2023: from Liz Ann Sonders -- this is very, very scary --

Original Post

The two most important folks right now with regard to the economy: Jamie Dimon and Jay Powell. 

My hunch: Jay Powell is listening to Jamie Dimon's concerns and will act accordingly.

The banks -- the "bedrock" of the nation -- alongside the military and the US Supreme Court -- are in deep trouble. My hunch: they cannot survive another rate hike, or even possibly, "higher-for-longer." 

Watch for more articles on credit-worthiness of your local banks and your regional banks.

Exhibit A: your local and regional banks are taking huge loans from the Fed's emergency window.

Exhibit B: holy mackerel! My favorite chart -- another huge spike and I don't think it will be the last.

My favorite chart. From The WSJ, October 12, 2023:

Higher interest rates have already done a number on banks’ deposits. They might not be done.
As investors prepare for another round of quarterly bank earnings, the hope isn’t for rosy reports about banks’ deposit costs.
Instead, they will be looking for any clarity on whether the worst is over, and when costs might even start to go down. Yes, the rates banks pay to their customers have already risen considerably. So perhaps that process has mostly run its course.
But there are also reasons to think there remains room for banks’ deposit funding costs to keep going up for a while—particularly if the Federal Reserve has truly adopted a higher-for-longer stance, effectively giving depositors more time to change their behavior and adjust to the new environment.

From earlier this week:

Locator: 45746FED.

See the post from last month, as this month’s data starts to get reported.

Link here, last month.

From ZeroHedge today.

From March 16, 2023, this puts the record set this past week in perspective. Link here.

One can see why Jamie Dimon was concerned about the banks a few weeks ago. I assume bankers are still concerned. 

My favorite chart will be updated in a week or so.

Now this, from The WSJ: 

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The Energy Transition Is Dead -- We Just Don't Know It Yet -- Peter Zeihan -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45788WIND.

Updates

Later, 7:47 p.m. CT: op-ed in The New York Post.   And don't forget: these are the folks that are banning new pipelines and ignoring the massive reserves of natural gas just to the west of them.

 Original Post

Before we get to the NY WIND article, Peter Zeihan this past week:

The Greentech industry has reaped the benefits of cheap capital for years, but that's all changing as demographics take a turn and investment patterns start to shift.
Financing Greentech projects requires a boatload of upfront capital, and if the cost of that capital rises, the viability of those projects has the inverse effect.
This means the Greentech space will be in hot water even if economic growth holds steady.
Sure, Biden's Inflation Reduction Act will help the US a bit, but there's no replacing private investments. This isn't an isolated issue either; if countries with solid Greentech potential want to see their industries thrive, we will need to see some major breakthroughs.

Now, back to the NY WIND story.

By the way: the vote by the New York folks was UNANIMOUS. It is amazing to see how much money these oil companies wanted from New York if they wanted to continue building their wind projects. Apparently, one of the "wind companies" market cap plummeted / collapsed after this debacle.

Two links, same story.

First, twitter, the journalists lied. I'm shocked, shocked:

Then, ZeroHedge, via twitter, and then ZeroHedge, direct:

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Rivian And Lucid -- Tickers -- One Year Out -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45787EVS.
Updates

Later, 12:52 p.m. CT: the way I see it -- with regard to EVs.

There are multiple global markets:

  • China, Europe, and the US.
  • I only "follow" the US EV market to any extent. I am really only interested in the US market.

There are two EV segments in the US:

  • Tesla
  • the rest.

If one wants, one can break that down to the following EV segments in the US:

  • Tesla:
    • becoming quite stodgy;
  • "cheap" cars for the masses, the Chevy Bolt; manufacture for: 
    • those who cannot afford a second car;
    • those who cannot afford an EV in the first place; 
    • those who live in apartment complexes with limited access to charging; 
    • those who cannot install their own charging units; 
    • in other words, an EV sector with few buyers;
  • sedans and SUVs: $70,000 cars; think Polestar, Lucid Air
    • a second or third car for the very well-to-do; 
    • will buy their "first," but won't buy a second
    • luxury pickup trucks: DOA
  • pickup trucks: the Ford F-150 Lightning
    • luxury: $85,0000
    • under-powered / lack of range for "real" work -- well documented
    • really, "for show only" -- for the "rhinestone cowboy" to coin a phrase
  • luxury sedans and race cars: the Ferrari's
    • $100,00+
    • quick: when you go out and about today, count the number of Ferrari's you see

Original Post

Before we get started, posted earlier as a top story for the week:

  • UAW strike in its fourth week
    • race to see who can idle the most workers the fastest: management (layoffs); union (strike)

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Lordstown

Lordstown is bankrupt.

Link here, August 15, 2023. 

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Lucid-Saudi

Lucid-Saudi:

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Rivian

Rivian, recent timeline:

Rivian, October 10, 2023:

Rivian, October 6, 2023:

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Reality

Link here.


From the linked article:

The auto industry’s push to boost sales of electric vehicles is running into a cold, hard reality: buyers’ interest in these models is proving shallower than expected.

While EV sales continue to grow—rising 51% this year through September—the rate has slowed from a year earlier and unsold inventory is starting to pile up for some brands. 

*********************
Earlier

Ford and GM: previously discussed. From Barron's:

From the Barron's article:

  • with regard to EVs, a short lede with the good news; then --
  • the bad news
    • EV inventory building; demand dropping;
      • inventories are running at 97 days of demand; compared with 57 days for traditional vehicles
    • OEM's survived two years of Covid-19 lock down; the UAW strike won't last that long
    • winter coming -- bad news for EVs for two reasons
      • overall auto sales drop in dead of winter
      • winter can cut range of EVs by 25%
    • sales growth:
      • F:
        • US EV sales rose 6% y/y (through August)
      • Tesla:
        • US EV sales rose 30% over same time period
    • geography:
      • California: EV sales could account for 23% of new sales (wow!)
      • Michigan and Ohio: same data point -- 3% (huge ouch)
        • both GM and F have lots of assembly plants and employees in Michigan, Ohio
        • locals aren't rushing to buy EVS: cold weather can cut EV range by 25%
    • EV industry is well out of the early-adoption phase
  • poll: all things being equal -- price and range; would you rather buy:
    • a Tesla
    • a Ford EV
  • if you answered Ford EV, you are not paying attention
  • like the Barbie movie, let's ask the question again
    • poll: all things being equal -- price and range; would you rather buy:
      • a Tesla
      • a Ford EV

Why much is at risk if they "drag their feet." Auto manufacturers, global: I had never seen this graphic before. It's really quite astounding when you think about it. 

And again, one has to ask, how did do many companies get so much wrong. Ferrari with a market cap greater than both Ford and GM (individually, not combined). And Mercedes Benz with a larger market cap than VW, the biggest auto company in the world (by other measures) -- needs to be fact-checked. This graphic is nice to have for the archives. We can check market cap again after the UAW strike is resolved, and again in five years.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

at No comments:

WSJ: "50%, Is In Effect, A Coin Flip" -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45786ECON.

I have a dozen or more posts in draft status. In a few minutes, I will post them.

For now, the headlines and/or stories that caught my attention this morning were two:

China: the era of China's global dominance is over. Look at the URL. 

Recession: consensus view -- recession is no longer the consensus view. Agree completely; the Fed has quit raising rates and this will cause tech to soar; EVs may recover. Link here. Did you all see Jamie Dimon's JPM's numbers? Holy mackerel. And some (like Charlie Munger) have said we are already in a recession. Needs to visit Texas. Changes in latitude, changes in attitude.

From the linked article:

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy.
They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue to ease. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%.
That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year. The median probability was 50%, in effect a coin flip.

But it wasn't 50%; it was "a more optimistic 48%." I find it amazing the writers had to explain to WSJ readers that 50% was, "in effect," a coin flip. Okay.

If I lose the first coin flip, I'll ask for best of three.

Then best of five. 

LOL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

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Bonus Feature Story
EV Sales -- The WSJ

Link here.


From the linked article:

The auto industry’s push to boost sales of electric vehicles is running into a cold, hard reality: buyers’ interest in these models is proving shallower than expected.
While EV sales continue to grow—rising 51% this year through September—the rate has slowed from a year earlier and unsold inventory is starting to pile up for some brands.
Some car companies, such as Ford Motor F -1.58%decrease; and Toyota Motor -2.16%decrease;  are tempering their expectations for EVs and shifting more resources into hybrids, which have been drawing consumers at a faster clip.
If these numbers continue to worsen, the longer the UAW remains on strike, the more likely Ford will pull back some of its already generous offers. 

at No comments:

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45785B.

The wells:

  • 39678, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Getzlaf 3-25-36-158N-101W-MBH, Little Muddy, npd;
  • 38092, conf, Enerplus, Baleen 148-93-05A-06H, McGregory Buttes,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-202330844219
7-20231451020100
6-20232130514174
5-20233165227785
4-202358273021
  • 37449, conf, Hess, EN-Abrahamson-LE-155-93-3019H-1, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20231801329758
7-20232264731696
6-20232473930955
5-20232564326185
4-202388748980
  • 34221, conf, BR, Abercrombie 3-8-12 MBH, Elidah, npd;
  • 39845, conf, Kraken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 5H, Hebron, npd;
  • 39679, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Getzlaf 2-25-36-158N-101W-MBH, Little Muddy, npd;
  • 39680, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Farthing 5-30-31-158N-100W-MBH-LLW, Church, npd;
  • 38276, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-009H-2, Blue Buttes,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20231598043806
7-20231114818200
6-20231306919924
5-20232444131521
4-20231108614784
  • 39681, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 5-19-18-158N-100W-MBH-LL, Little Muddy, npd;
  • 37451, conf, Hess, EN-Abrahamson-155-93-3019H-9, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20231271116805
7-20231279616022
6-20231330215256
5-202371307172
4-202349135353
  • 36778, conf, BR, Bailey-George 1A TFH-ULW, Pershing, npd;
  • 39328, conf, CLR, Arthur 6-12H, Little Knife, npd;
  • 39682, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Farthing 4-30-31-158N-100W-MBH, Church, npd;
  • 39329, conf, CLR, Arthur 7-12H1, Little Knife, npd;
  • 39281, conf, Oasis, Osprey 5401 43-22 2B, Todd,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20232955825418
7-20232608420533
6-20232963623689
5-20232609919767
4-202330071926
  • 37450, conf, Hess, EN-Abrahamson-155-93-3019H-4, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20231540418331
7-20231553118196
6-20231431916166
5-20232566826158
4-20231535219881
  • 36779, conf, BR, George 1B MBH, Pershing, npd;
  • 39683, conf, Cresent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 4-19-18-158N-100W MBH, Winner, npd;
  • 39330, conf, CLR, Arthur 8-12H, Little Knife, npd,
  • 39282, conf, Oasis, Harrier 5401 43-22 6B, Todd,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20233235130686
7-20232947924225
6-20233051924803
5-20233041524510
4-202322951434
  • 39684, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Farthing 3-30-31-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
  • 39283, conf, Oasis, Kestrel 5401 43-22 5BX, Todd,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20233356431690
7-20232686223583
6-20232896123144
5-20232904920741
4-202334572261
  • 36780, conf, BR, George 1C TFH, Pershing, no production data,
  • 39331, conf, CLR, Arthur 9-12H1, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 39685, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 3-19-18-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
  • 39332, conf, CLR, Arthur 10-12H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 38922, conf, Oasis, Kestrel 5401 43-22 2B, Todd,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20233157728684
7-20232779523362
6-20232854521865
5-20233095424156
4-202329251617
  • 39429, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dean Wormer 149-102-33D-28-4H, Moline, no production data,
  • 38275, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-3, Blue Buttes,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20232071524074
7-20232608549822
6-20231948730988
5-20233067545606
4-20232986235719

at No comments:

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45784B.

Wednesday, October 25, 2023: 59 for the month; 59 for the quarter, 629 for the year
None.

Tuesday, October 24, 2023: 59 for the month; 59 for the quarter, 629 for the year
39678, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Getzlaf 3-25-36-158N-101W-MBH, Little Muddy,
38092, conf, Enerplus, Baleen 148-93-05A-06H, McGregory Buttes,
37449, conf, Hess, EN-Abrahamson-LE-155-93-3019H-1, 
34221, conf, BR, Abercrombie 3-8-12 MBH, Elidah,

Monday, October 23, 2023: 55 for the month; 55 for the quarter, 625 for the year
39845, conf, Kraken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 5H, Hebron,
39679, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Getzlaf 2-25-36-158N-101W-MBH,
39635, conf, SWD, Dakota Fluid Solutions

Sunday, October 22, 2023: 52 for the month; 52 for the quarter, 622 for the year
39680, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Farthing 5-30-31-158N-100W-MBH-LLW,
38276, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-009H-2, Blue Buttes,

Saturday, October 21, 2023: 50 for the month; 50 for the quarter, 620 for the year
39681, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 5-19-18-158N-100W-MBH-LL,

Friday, October 20, 2023: 49 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 619 for the year
37451, conf, Hess, EN-Abrahamson-155-93-3019H-9, Alger,
36778, conf, BR, Bailey-George 1A TFH-ULW, Pershing,
39328, conf, CLR, Arthur 6-12H, Little Knife,

Thursday, October 19, 2023: 46 for the month; 46 for the quarter, 616 for the year
39682, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Farthing 4-30-31-158N-100W-MBH, Church
39329, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 5-31H1, Jim Creek,
39281, conf, Oasis, Osprey 5401 43-22 2B, Todd,
37450, conf, Hess, Austin 105-1929H, Parshall,
36779, conf, BR, George 1B MBH, Pershing,

Wednesday, October 18, 2023: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter, 611 for the year
39683, conf, Cresent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 4-19-18-158N-100W MBH,
39330, conf, CLR, Arthur 8-12H,
39282, conf, Oasis, Harrier 5401 43-22 6B,

Tuesday, October 17, 2023: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter, 608 for the year
39684, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Farthing 3-30-31-158N-100W-MBH,
39283, conf, Oasis, Kestrel 5401 43-22 5BX,
36780, conf, BR, George 1C TFH,

Monday, October 16, 2023: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter, 605 for the year
39331, conf, CLR, Arthur 9-12H1,

Sunday, October 15, 2023: 34 for the month; 34 for the quarter, 604 for the year
39685, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 3-19-18-158N-100W-MBH,
39332, conf, CLR, Arthur 10-12H,
38922, conf, Oasis, Kestrel 5401 43-22 2B,

Saturday, October 14, 2023: 31 for the month; 31 for the quarter, 601 for the year
39429, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dean Wormer 149-102-33D-28-4H,
38275, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-3,

at No comments: