The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 10/12/23

Thursday, October 12, 2023

Another Great Bakken Producer -- #37162 -- WPX, Pronghorn In Spotted Horn -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45755B.

The well -- Tuesday, July 7, 2020: 27 for the month; 27 for the quarter, 472 for the year:

37162, drl/NC, WPX, Pronghorn 22-15HUL, Spotted Horn, t--; cum 493K 8/23;

We will look at this one later.

The XTO Skarpsno Federal Wells In Haystack Butte Finally Completed -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45754B.

When these wells came off confidential back in 3Q20, these wells were DUCs. They've now been completed:

The wells:

35974, drl/NC, XTO, Skarpsno Federal 22X-20F, Haystack Butte, finally drilled 11/22; t--; cum 178K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	18733	18760	24247	43694	42185	209
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	9345	9447	14016	19566	18394	145
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	21553	21526	29623	48838	40911	6746
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	26301	26335	34875	55255	53147	1183
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	29824	29890	39525	57506	56761	238
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	38213	38007	55320	71247	70665	298
BAKKEN	2-2023	22	33976	33810	50932	56325	55795	489
BAKKEN	1-2023	0	0	286	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	3	286	0	3520	605	0	605

35973, drl/NC, XTO, Skarpsno Federal 22X-20B, Haystack Butte, finally drilled 11/22; t--; cum 183K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	14324	14376	17426	37267	35788	176
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	8638	8690	11087	21530	20329	160
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	16877	16847	18867	45970	38277	6359
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	19705	19753	20695	48141	46177	1036
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	24536	24586	23508	55954	54916	226
BAKKEN	3-2023	26	31084	30970	26456	65422	64724	272
BAKKEN	2-2023	27	38565	39082	32807	80678	79955	667
BAKKEN	1-2023	9	29352	28956	25310	53273	49975	3266
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	2	309	0	3750	632	0	632

35972, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, XTO, Skarpsno Federal 22X-20E, Haystack Butte, finally drilled 11/22; cum 148K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	27	11237	11318	16234	25389	24276	118
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	8660	8683	11347	27845	26546	206
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	14839	14804	19817	44431	36957	6149
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	16526	16561	20110	36759	35020	783
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	20057	20183	22532	44444	43509	176
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	34105	33981	37951	68219	67511	282
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	42779	42571	52347	76831	76120	656
BAKKEN	1-2023	0	0	15	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	2	15	0	4650	382	0	382

35971, drl/NC-->drl/NCW noted 7/21, XTO, Skarpsno Federal 22X-20AXD, Haystack Butte, finally drilled, 11/22; t--; cum 125K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	24	726	818	1668	1830	971	9
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	13259	13158	22390	50787	49114	380
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	14086	14224	22365	47164	39513	6400
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	15542	15595	23755	44572	42632	977
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	18424	18247	25907	47481	46427	205
BAKKEN	3-2023	29	23138	23363	31021	53944	53204	245
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	25525	25578	32807	55284	54640	505
BAKKEN	1-2023	12	14299	13621	15701	25361	23460	1847
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	2	52	0	2250	0	0	0

*********************
A Well Of Interest

The well:

20140, 1,841, XTO, Mandal Federal 41X-29C, Haystack Butte, t10/13; cum 236K 8/23; recent production, not halo effect:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	4318	4181	3452	9183	8136	11
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	2196	2228	4338	6424	5517	17
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	3501	3411	6661	11855	9566	1067
BAKKEN	5-2023	18	2	11	0	4	4	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	28	491	482	199	310	309	1
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	0	0	104	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	2	0	0	1790	102	0	102
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	13	469	1154	837	1085	1052	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	21	340	718	779	1062	1018	11
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	1153	421	884	3254	3153	20
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	1078	1438	924	3046	2968	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1232	1281	1033	3268	3101	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1104	913	812	2962	2811	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	1105	1097	668	3093	2801	140

NDIC Will Probably Correct This Friday -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45753NDIC.

Daily activity report for October 12, 2023 is linked twice, to October 11, 2023; and, October 12, 2023. Link here.

A Three-Year-Old WPX Well Has Produced More Than 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45752B.

At the time this well came off confidential list it was a DUC. Now, the update. The well, drilled three. years ago, has produced 630K bbls crude oil cumulative. See this note. This is among a group of 3-mile, super-long laterals.

37134, drl/NC-->F/A, WPX, Nokota 24-13-12HB, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 628K 8/23; still "F";

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	4752	4684	5774	26484	26320	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	4514	4543	5505	21827	21662	1
BAKKEN	6-2023	20	3122	3149	4451	14913	14806	2
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	5088	5072	6156	24203	24037	4
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	4689	4646	5828	24774	24469	147
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	4857	4935	6363	27836	27608	65
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	5161	5162	6062	27356	27015	193
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	5754	5729	6727	29582	29266	153
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	6847	6790	8120	30987	30633	190
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	4342	4307	5483	20209	19184	923
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	6704	6752	7925	31052	30672	219
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	7478	7503	7911	32065	31635	273
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	8117	8163	8543	32848	32173	516
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	7236	7230	8005	28991	28604	236
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	9297	9229	9523	30922	30752	14
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	6524	6582	8201	19094	18982	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	8092	8019	8566	35608	35472	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	9483	9540	9316	35453	35297	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	9773	9638	9494	36362	36215	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	11408	11550	11054	38626	38464	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	13456	13411	15631	40504	36849	3493
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	7700	7924	7716	31929	31835	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	17008	16923	14632	53013	52851	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	16567	16489	13640	43622	34306	9175
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	14834	14910	15075	33554	29699	3711
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	13182	13185	11789	36622	36496	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	22109	22136	17568	52375	41828	8032
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	26142	26211	20108	61929	44087	14883
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	31921	31893	22168	53189	49621	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	41412	41373	26830	54582	49894	97
BAKKEN	2-2021	24	30537	30454	20670	40248	32166	4696
BAKKEN	1-2021	29	39777	39846	31805	52426	35692	12333
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	70137	69948	48429	92442	65453	19322
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	80474	80740	58188	106063	60245	37051
BAKKEN	10-2020	13	69136	68691	47438	91121	44375	39282

Saudi Exports To The US Have Plummeted -- A New World Order? October 12, 2023

Locator: 45751SAUDI.

Link here.

EIA data here. Saudi-US imports.

Best Headline Ever -- Can't Make This Stuff Up -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45750TRUMP.

Link here. From the most apolitical source out there --

***********************
From Our EIA

Link here.

Since I began the blog and since I've been following the EIA, I have become a much better investor.

This Is Getting Serious -- Barron's -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45749CRISES.

From earlier today.

Now, today, from Barron's.

The United Auto Workers strike against the Detroit-Three auto makers just entered a new phase Wednesday. It means more uncertainty for investors. It also means the auto makers and the union are still far apart on a couple of key issues.

Tuesday evening, UAW workers walked out at Ford’s Kentucky Truck Plant . It’s a move designed to inflict serious financial pain on the auto maker.
With nearly 9,000 workers, Kentucky is Ford’s largest plant in the world. F-series super duty is built there. That’s an important profit generator for Ford’s commercial business, Ford Pro. The Lincoln Navigator and Ford Expedition are built there, too. Overall, Kentucky generates about $25 billion in sales annually. Ford is expected to generate $173 billion in sales in 2023, according to FactSet.
Ford stock has fallen 1% in after-hours trading.
Now about 17,000 Ford workers are on strike, bringing the total at all three auto makers to about 33,000. Total UAW employment at the Detroit-Three is about 145,000 workers.
Ford says it has the best economic offer of the three auto makers on the table. It was unwilling to make a new offer, yesterday, Wednesday, October 11, 2023.

Since then, we've come to that space between a rock and a hard place:

This Is Getting Serious -- Barron's -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45749CRISES.

Updates

October 16, 2023: Fored CEO — unprecedented — pleads with UAW — becoming an existential issue.

the CEO would not have made this speech without board support

October 15, 2023: there now appears to be a race to see who can idle the most workers the fastest: management (layoffs); union (strike) — for management, idling workers may be better than risking the consequences of not taking preemptive action.

Original Post

From earlier today.

Now, today, from Barron's.

The United Auto Workers strike against the Detroit-Three auto makers just entered a new phase Wednesday. It means more uncertainty for investors. It also means the auto makers and the union are still far apart on a couple of key issues.

Tuesday evening, UAW workers walked out at Ford’s Kentucky Truck Plant . It’s a move designed to inflict serious financial pain on the auto maker.
With nearly 9,000 workers, Kentucky is Ford’s largest plant in the world. F-series super duty is built there. That’s an important profit generator for Ford’s commercial business, Ford Pro. The Lincoln Navigator and Ford Expedition are built there, too. Overall, Kentucky generates about $25 billion in sales annually. Ford is expected to generate $173 billion in sales in 2023, according to FactSet.
Ford stock has fallen 1% in after-hours trading.
Now about 17,000 Ford workers are on strike, bringing the total at all three auto makers to about 33,000. Total UAW employment at the Detroit-Three is about 145,000 workers.
Ford says it has the best economic offer of the three auto makers on the table. It was unwilling to make a new offer, yesterday, Wednesday, October 11, 2023.

Since then, we've come to that space between a rock and a hard place:

President Biden has at least four crises, possibly five or six:

To start:

Ukraine, of course, now on the back burner;
Gaza Strip / Israel: on the front burner -- but he can delegate this one;

he can delegate it unless this very local issue becomes a regional issue involving the entire Mideast;
a good time to take another look at the map of the Mideast
we'll get an idea of how serious this is if another US a/c is ordered to the Gulf

the Brits are sending ships now

if there's a new world order, the US may not find any air bases for the USAF in the region

certainly Turkey and Saudi Arabia aren't going to be helpful

the UAW strike: huge distraction but at least the auto manufacturers know the White House has bigger fish to fry;
the southern surge; blue sanctuary states have their hands full and the White House has bigger fish to fry; and, regardless, Kamala Harris is in charge of this one;
keeping the government open after November 15, 2023
he can't get any of his military general officers confirmed --

I don't think folks understand how serious this is -- speaking as one who has been there

if the Mideast becomes a regional war (euphemism for all-out war on Israel by the Muslim nations) I think "we" can begin to thank, at least to some degree, GOP's Senator Tuberville for what follows next.

Now the biggies:

Iran -- sort of just getting started on several fronts
Russia -- causing mischief everywhere
China?

I-35 -- The Silver-Sombrero Road -- Way More Important Than China's Belt And Road Initiative -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45748HATS.

Silver sombrero: not to be confused with the Golden Sombrero.

Peter Zeihan, today:

Why the US needs Mexico: Peter Zeihan.

If you're an American considering picking up a new language and have narrowed it down to Chinese or Spanish - it should be a no-brainer. As China slips into utter collapse, our southern neighbors will pick up the slack and "hola" will get you much farther than "nǐ hǎo."

As the US pulls manufacturing from China, we'll look to Mexico City to fill that void. This region not only holds over half of Mexico's population but also represents the largest untapped workforce globally.

So, the workforce is there, but we're still missing a couple of pieces of the puzzle.

A massive industrial buildout will have to happen for this transition to work - and quick, too.

I'm talking about new rail and border infrastructure, beefing up the I-35 corridor and improving connections within the US manufacturing industry.

Did you catch that bit about I-35?

Link here.

I-35 runs from Laredo, TX, "near" the Mexican border, to Duluth, Minnesota.

I-35 runs right through Ft Worth and Dallas. I-35 splits north of the DFW area and south the DFW area. The western "branch" runs smack dab through Ft Worth and the eastern branch runs smack dab through Dallas.

In Texas, it also runs through San Antonio and Austin. In Oklahoma, Oklahoma City.

Zeihan's note today helps explain why there is so much construction on I-35 in Texas. It's amazing how much construction is occurring on this interstate.

Eight New Permits, Nine Permits Renewed, Seven DUCs Reported As Completed -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45747B.

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $83.40.

Eight new permits, #40250 - #40257, inclusive:

Operator: CLR
Field: Jim Creek (Dunn County)
Comments:

CLR has permits for four Benner wells and four Chase wells, SWSE 7-145-96;

to be sited 360 FSL and between 2316 FEL and 2092 FEL;

Nine permits renewed:

MRO (6): six permits in McGregory Buttes, Dunn County: Treasure USA, Shell USA, Judith USA, Elva USA, Carolyn USA, and Anita USA
Whiting (3): three Link permits in Foreman Butte, McKenzie County;

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

38985, 1,284, CLR, Kiefel 2-36HSL,
39157, 1,004, CLR, Kiefel 4-36H,
39158, 1,632, CLR, Kiefel 5-36H,
39159, 1,431, CLR, Kiefel 6-36H,
39175, 1,028, CLR, Clyde Hauge 4-13H,
39491, 665, Kraken, Ricky-Lee LE 18-7-6 11H,
39492, 887, Kraken, Anseth L W 20-29-32 12H,

The Feds Making Record Amounts Of Loans To Your Local Banks — October 12, 2023

Locator: 45746FED.

See the post from last month, as this month’s data starts to get reported.

Link here, last month.

From ZeroHedge today.

From March 16, 2023, this puts the record set this past week in perspective. Link here.

One can see why Jamie Dimon was concerned about the banks a few weeks ago. I assume bankers are still concerned.

My favorite chart will be updated in a week or so.

Director's Cut -- August, 2023, Data

Locator: 45745CUT.

Link here. Not viewable on Firefox.

Director's Cuts are tracked here.

Disclaimer applies.

DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons tracked here.

Producing wells: 18,179 -- new all-time high (July, 2023)

new all-time high, this month, August, 2023: 18,179 producing wells (preliminary)

the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources reported the state had 18,101 producing wells in June, 2023.

gas capture, statewide: 96%

Highlights.

active rigs

today: 38
September: 37
37: August, 2023
37: July, 2023
37: June, 2023
expected to rise to the mid-forties with gradual increase over next two years;

crude oil production:

August, 2023: 1,219,345 (+3.3%)
July, 2023: 1,180,692 (+1%)
June, 2023: 1,166,604 bopd
May, 2023: 1,135,009 bopd

crude price:

today: $77.60
August, 2023: $77.15
July, 2023: $70.35.
June, 2023: $64.18
May, 2023; $65.82

natural gas:

August, 2023: 3,302,779 MCF/day (+0.3%)
July, 2023: 3,292,150 MCF/day (+1%)
June, 2023: 3,247,513 MCF/day
May, 2023: 3,156,883 MCF/day

wells permitted:

Septemmber: 59
August: 87
July: 70
June: 85
May: 63
April: 89

DUCs:

August: 376
July: 419
June: 433
May: 459
April: 458

inactive:

August: 1,624
July: 1,665
June: 1,693
May: 1,779
April, 1,899

completed:

September: 129 (preliminary)
August: 91 (preliminary)
July: 83 (prelminary)
June: 85
May: 138
April: 51

producing:

August, 2023: 18,380 (preliminary; new all-time high)
July, 2023: 18,179 (new all-time high)
June, 2023: 18,101 (new all-time high)
May, 2023: 17,9292 (new all-time)
April: 17,768

Gasoline Demand -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45744GASOLINEDEMAND.

Link here.

Inappropriately Exuberant About The Bakken -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45743B.

Link here.

From a reader, today:

check out market cap of PXD and OXY
today, 2:50 p.m., October 12, 2023:

OXY: $55.94 billion; p/e = 11; div = 1.14%; shares trading at $65 / share;
PXD: $56.04 billion; p/e = 10; div = 6.85%; shares trading at $240 / share;

Now, let's take a look at DVN:

DVN: $30 billion; p/e = 6; div = 10.7%; shares trading at $47 / share;

I was so overweight in oil I quit buying "new" oil about two years ago:

some exceptions;
I consider oil a "utility" now.

I still won't buy "new" oil (with exceptions) but I think I've found another exception.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

WPX Two Shields Well Now Producing -- Well Drilled In 2009 Has Now Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45742B.

Disclaimer: I'm doing this on the patio; weather is perfect, but a little windy and I may have errors below. But I think it's pretty close to accurate as is. Let me know if I have errors.

Updates

October 12, 2023: a reader alerted me that this well is now producing --

39540, drl, WPX, Two Shields Butte 16-8-7-13H3U, spud date, 2/3/23; stim 5/20/23; t--; cum --;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold
BAKKEN	8-2023	29	34410	34284	34627	26691	26691
BAKKEN	7-2023	27	30850	30949	31435	19936	19936
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	10242	9970	10327	6888	6888

Four wells on that pad:

39539, drl/drl, WPX, Two Shields Butte 16-8-7-13HA, Heart Butte, t--; cum 44K two months;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	29	24905	24922	25787	21055	21055	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	28	18620	18324	27054	13649	13649	0

18022, IA/711, WPX, Two Shields Butte 16-8-16H, Heart Butte, t6/09; cum 292K 10/22; off line; ignore this one; it goes south; does not parallel the other three

17981, IA/1,666, WPX, Two Shields Buute 16-8-7H, Heart Butte, t6/09; cum 503K 10/22; off line; this is the important one to check up on in about six months for a halo effect?

To the north, WPX has another pad; it originally had four wells -- all drilled in 2019 -- and now two more WPX wells on that pad, but confidential.

Original Post

See this post, and the comments at that post.

The reader is correct. This well has been fracked / completed.

Fracked May 20, 2023 -- within six months of that date (this fall, 2023) we should start seeing production data. Royalties, I suppose, could start flowing (no pun intended) maybe even as early as August, 2023?

Frac Data here.

Wow, wow, wow ...

The well:

39540, drl, WPX, Two Shields Butte 16-8-7-13H3U, spud date, 2/3/23; stim 5/20/23; t--; cum --;

Pages

Thursday, October 12, 2023