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Thursday, October 12, 2023

Another Great Bakken Producer -- #37162 -- WPX, Pronghorn In Spotted Horn -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45755B.

The well -- Tuesday, July 7, 2020: 27 for the month; 27 for the quarter, 472 for the year:

  • 37162, drl/NC, WPX, Pronghorn 22-15HUL, Spotted Horn, t--; cum 493K 8/23;

We will look at this one later.

The XTO Skarpsno Federal Wells In Haystack Butte Finally Completed -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45754B.

When these wells came off confidential back in 3Q20, these wells were DUCs. They've now been completed:

The wells:

  • 35974, drl/NC, XTO, Skarpsno Federal 22X-20F, Haystack Butte, finally drilled 11/22; t--; cum 178K 8/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023311873318760242474369442185209
BAKKEN7-20233193459447140161956618394145
BAKKEN6-20233021553215262962348838409116746
BAKKEN5-20233126301263353487555255531471183
BAKKEN4-2023302982429890395255750656761238
BAKKEN3-2023313821338007553207124770665298
BAKKEN2-2023223397633810509325632555795489
BAKKEN1-2023002860000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20223286035206050605
  • 35973, drl/NC, XTO, Skarpsno Federal 22X-20B, Haystack Butte, finally drilled 11/22; t--; cum 183K 8/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023311432414376174263726735788176
BAKKEN7-20233186388690110872153020329160
BAKKEN6-20233016877168471886745970382776359
BAKKEN5-20233119705197532069548141461771036
BAKKEN4-2023302453624586235085595454916226
BAKKEN3-2023263108430970264566542264724272
BAKKEN2-2023273856539082328078067879955667
BAKKEN1-2023929352289562531053273499753266
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20222309037506320632

  • 35972, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, XTO, Skarpsno Federal 22X-20E, Haystack Butte, finally drilled 11/22; cum 148K 8/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023271123711318162342538924276118
BAKKEN7-20233186608683113472784526546206
BAKKEN6-20233014839148041981744431369576149
BAKKEN5-2023311652616561201103675935020783
BAKKEN4-2023302005720183225324444443509176
BAKKEN3-2023313410533981379516821967511282
BAKKEN2-2023284277942571523477683176120656
BAKKEN1-202300150000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-2022215046503820382
  • 35971, drl/NC-->drl/NCW noted 7/21, XTO, Skarpsno Federal 22X-20AXD, Haystack Butte, finally drilled, 11/22; t--; cum 125K 8/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202324726818166818309719
BAKKEN7-2023311325913158223905078749114380
BAKKEN6-20233014086142242236547164395136400
BAKKEN5-2023311554215595237554457242632977
BAKKEN4-2023301842418247259074748146427205
BAKKEN3-2023292313823363310215394453204245
BAKKEN2-2023282552525578328075528454640505
BAKKEN1-20231214299136211570125361234601847
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-202225202250000

*********************
A Well Of Interest
 

The well:

  • 20140, 1,841, XTO, Mandal Federal 41X-29C, Haystack Butte, t10/13; cum 236K 8/23; recent production, not halo effect:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2023314318418134529183813611
BAKKEN7-2023312196222843386424551717
BAKKEN6-2023303501341166611185595661067
BAKKEN5-2023182110440
BAKKEN4-2023284914821993103091
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-2023001040000
BAKKEN1-202320017901020102
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-20220000000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-2022134691154837108510520
BAKKEN6-2022213407187791062101811
BAKKEN5-20223111534218843254315320
BAKKEN4-20223010781438924304629680
BAKKEN3-202231123212811033326831010
BAKKEN2-2022281104913812296228110
BAKKEN1-2022311105109766830932801140

NDIC Will Probably Correct This Friday -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45753NDIC.

Daily activity report for October 12, 2023 is linked twice, to October 11, 2023; and, October 12, 2023. Link here.

A Three-Year-Old WPX Well Has Produced More Than 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45752B.

At the time this well came off confidential list it was a DUC. Now, the update. The well, drilled three. years ago, has produced 630K bbls crude oil cumulative. See this note. This is among a group of 3-mile, super-long laterals.

  • 37134, drl/NC-->F/A, WPX, Nokota 24-13-12HB, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 628K 8/23; still "F";
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20233147524684577426484263200
BAKKEN7-20233145144543550521827216621
BAKKEN6-20232031223149445114913148062
BAKKEN5-20233150885072615624203240374
BAKKEN4-2023304689464658282477424469147
BAKKEN3-202331485749356363278362760865
BAKKEN2-2023285161516260622735627015193
BAKKEN1-2023315754572967272958229266153
BAKKEN12-2022316847679081203098730633190
BAKKEN11-2022304342430754832020919184923
BAKKEN10-2022316704675279253105230672219
BAKKEN9-2022307478750379113206531635273
BAKKEN8-2022318117816385433284832173516
BAKKEN7-2022317236723080052899128604236
BAKKEN6-202230929792299523309223075214
BAKKEN5-20223165246582820119094189820
BAKKEN4-20223080928019856635608354720
BAKKEN3-20223194839540931635453352970
BAKKEN2-20222897739638949436362362150
BAKKEN1-20223111408115501105438626384640
BAKKEN12-20213113456134111563140504368493493
BAKKEN11-20213077007924771631929318350
BAKKEN10-20213117008169231463253013528510
BAKKEN9-20213016567164891364043622343069175
BAKKEN8-20213114834149101507533554296993711
BAKKEN7-20213113182131851178936622364960
BAKKEN6-20213022109221361756852375418288032
BAKKEN5-202131261422621120108619294408714883
BAKKEN4-20213031921318932216853189496210
BAKKEN3-202131414124137326830545824989497
BAKKEN2-20212430537304542067040248321664696
BAKKEN1-202129397773984631805524263569212333
BAKKEN12-202031701376994848429924426545319322
BAKKEN11-2020308047480740581881060636024537051
BAKKEN10-202013691366869147438911214437539282

Best Headline Ever -- Can't Make This Stuff Up -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45750TRUMP.

Link here. From the most apolitical source out there -- 

***********************
From Our EIA

Link here.

Since I began the blog and since I've been following the EIA, I have become a much better investor.

This Is Getting Serious -- Barron's -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45749CRISES.

From earlier today.

Now, today, from Barron's

The United Auto Workers strike against the Detroit-Three auto makers just entered a new phase Wednesday. It means more uncertainty for investors. It also means the auto makers and the union are still far apart on a couple of key issues.

Tuesday evening, UAW workers walked out at Ford’s Kentucky Truck Plant . It’s a move designed to inflict serious financial pain on the auto maker.

With nearly 9,000 workers, Kentucky is Ford’s largest plant in the world. F-series super duty is built there. That’s an important profit generator for Ford’s commercial business, Ford Pro. The Lincoln Navigator and Ford Expedition are built there, too. Overall, Kentucky generates about $25 billion in sales annually. Ford is expected to generate $173 billion in sales in 2023, according to FactSet.

Ford stock has fallen 1% in after-hours trading.

Now about 17,000 Ford workers are on strike, bringing the total at all three auto makers to about 33,000. Total UAW employment at the Detroit-Three is about 145,000 workers.

Ford says it has the best economic offer of the three auto makers on the table. It was unwilling to make a new offer, yesterday, Wednesday, October 11, 2023.

Since then, we've come to that space between a rock and a hard place:

This Is Getting Serious -- Barron's -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45749CRISES.

Updates 

October 16, 2023: Fored CEO — unprecedented — pleads with UAW — becoming an existential issue. 

  • the CEO would not have made this speech without board support

October 15, 2023: there now appears to be a race to see who can idle the most workers the fastest: management (layoffs); union (strike) — for management, idling workers may be better than risking the consequences of not taking preemptive action.

Original Post

From earlier today.

Now, today, from Barron's

The United Auto Workers strike against the Detroit-Three auto makers just entered a new phase Wednesday. It means more uncertainty for investors. It also means the auto makers and the union are still far apart on a couple of key issues.

Tuesday evening, UAW workers walked out at Ford’s Kentucky Truck Plant . It’s a move designed to inflict serious financial pain on the auto maker.

With nearly 9,000 workers, Kentucky is Ford’s largest plant in the world. F-series super duty is built there. That’s an important profit generator for Ford’s commercial business, Ford Pro. The Lincoln Navigator and Ford Expedition are built there, too. Overall, Kentucky generates about $25 billion in sales annually. Ford is expected to generate $173 billion in sales in 2023, according to FactSet.

Ford stock has fallen 1% in after-hours trading.

Now about 17,000 Ford workers are on strike, bringing the total at all three auto makers to about 33,000. Total UAW employment at the Detroit-Three is about 145,000 workers.

Ford says it has the best economic offer of the three auto makers on the table. It was unwilling to make a new offer, yesterday, Wednesday, October 11, 2023.

Since then, we've come to that space between a rock and a hard place:

President Biden has at least four crises, possibly five or six:

To start:

  • Ukraine, of course, now on the back burner;
  • Gaza Strip / Israel: on the front burner -- but he can delegate this one; 
    • he can delegate it unless this very local issue becomes a regional issue involving the entire Mideast;
    • a good time to take another look at the map of the Mideast
    • we'll get an idea of how serious this is if another US a/c is ordered to the Gulf
      • the Brits are sending ships now
    • if there's a new world order, the US may not find any air bases for the USAF in the region
      • certainly Turkey and Saudi Arabia aren't going to be helpful
  • the UAW strike: huge distraction but at least the auto manufacturers know the White House has bigger fish to fry;
  • the southern surge; blue sanctuary states have their hands full and the White House has bigger fish to fry; and, regardless, Kamala Harris is in charge of this one;
  • keeping the government open after November 15, 2023
  • he can't get any of his military general officers confirmed --
    • I don't think folks understand how serious this is -- speaking as one who has been there
  • if the Mideast becomes a regional war (euphemism for all-out war on Israel by the Muslim nations) I think "we" can begin to thank, at least to some degree, GOP's Senator Tuberville for what follows next.

Now the biggies:

  • Iran -- sort of just getting started on several fronts
  • Russia -- causing mischief everywhere
  • China?

I-35 -- The Silver-Sombrero Road -- Way More Important Than China's Belt And Road Initiative -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45748HATS.

Silver sombrero: not to be confused with the Golden Sombrero.

Peter Zeihan, today:

If you're an American considering picking up a new language and have narrowed it down to Chinese or Spanish - it should be a no-brainer. As China slips into utter collapse, our southern neighbors will pick up the slack and "hola" will get you much farther than "nǐ hǎo."
As the US pulls manufacturing from China, we'll look to Mexico City to fill that void. This region not only holds over half of Mexico's population but also represents the largest untapped workforce globally.
So, the workforce is there, but we're still missing a couple of pieces of the puzzle.
A massive industrial buildout will have to happen for this transition to work - and quick, too.
I'm talking about new rail and border infrastructure, beefing up the I-35 corridor and improving connections within the US manufacturing industry.

Did you catch that bit about I-35?

Link here

I-35 runs from Laredo, TX, "near" the Mexican border, to Duluth, Minnesota.

I-35 runs right through Ft Worth and Dallas. I-35 splits north of the DFW area and south the DFW area. The western "branch" runs smack dab through Ft Worth and the eastern branch runs smack dab through Dallas.

In Texas, it also runs through San Antonio and Austin. In Oklahoma, Oklahoma City.

Zeihan's note today helps explain why there is so much construction on I-35 in Texas. It's amazing how much construction is occurring on this interstate.

Eight New Permits, Nine Permits Renewed, Seven DUCs Reported As Completed -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45747B.

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $83.40.

Eight new permits, #40250 - #40257, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Jim Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for four Benner wells and four Chase wells, SWSE 7-145-96; 
      • to be sited 360 FSL and between 2316 FEL and 2092 FEL;

Nine permits renewed:

  • MRO (6): six permits in McGregory Buttes, Dunn County: Treasure USA, Shell USA, Judith USA, Elva USA, Carolyn USA, and Anita USA
  • Whiting (3): three Link permits in Foreman Butte, McKenzie County; 

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38985, 1,284, CLR, Kiefel 2-36HSL,
  • 39157, 1,004, CLR, Kiefel 4-36H,
  • 39158, 1,632, CLR, Kiefel 5-36H,
  • 39159, 1,431, CLR, Kiefel 6-36H,
  • 39175, 1,028, CLR, Clyde Hauge 4-13H,
  • 39491, 665, Kraken, Ricky-Lee LE 18-7-6 11H,
  • 39492, 887, Kraken, Anseth L W 20-29-32 12H,

The Feds Making Record Amounts Of Loans To Your Local Banks — October 12, 2023

Locator: 45746FED.

See the post from last month, as this month’s data starts to get reported.

Link here, last month.

From ZeroHedge today.

From March 16, 2023, this puts the record set this past week in perspective. Link here.

One can see why Jamie Dimon was concerned about the banks a few weeks ago. I assume bankers are still concerned. 

My favorite chart will be updated in a week or so.

Director's Cut -- August, 2023, Data

Locator: 45745CUT.

Link here. Not viewable on Firefox.

Director's Cuts are tracked here

Disclaimer applies. 

DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons tracked here.

Producing wells: 18,179 -- new all-time high (July, 2023)

  • new all-time high, this month, August, 2023: 18,179 producing wells (preliminary)
    • the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources reported the state had 18,101 producing wells in June, 2023.
  • gas capture, statewide: 96%

Highlights.

  • active rigs
    • today: 38
    • September: 37
    • 37: August, 2023
    • 37: July, 2023
    • 37: June, 2023
    • expected to rise to the mid-forties with gradual increase over next two years;
  • crude oil production:
    • August, 2023: 1,219,345 (+3.3%)
    • July, 2023: 1,180,692 (+1%)
    • June, 2023: 1,166,604 bopd
    • May, 2023: 1,135,009 bopd
  • crude price:
    • today: $77.60
    • August, 2023: $77.15
    • July, 2023: $70.35.
    • June, 2023: $64.18
    • May, 2023; $65.82
  • natural gas:
    • August, 2023: 3,302,779 MCF/day (+0.3%)
    • July, 2023: 3,292,150 MCF/day (+1%)
    • June, 2023: 3,247,513 MCF/day
    • May, 2023: 3,156,883 MCF/day
  • wells permitted:
    • Septemmber: 59
    • August: 87
    • July: 70
    • June: 85
    • May: 63
    • April: 89
  • DUCs:
    • August: 376
    • July: 419
    • June: 433
    • May: 459
    • April: 458
  • inactive:
    • August: 1,624
    • July: 1,665
    • June: 1,693
    • May: 1,779
    • April, 1,899
  • completed:
    • September: 129 (preliminary)
    • August: 91 (preliminary)
    • July: 83 (prelminary)
    • June: 85 
    • May: 138 
    • April: 51 
  • producing: 
    • August, 2023: 18,380 (preliminary; new all-time high)
    • July, 2023: 18,179 (new all-time high)
    • June, 2023: 18,101 (new all-time high)
    • May, 2023: 17,9292 (new all-time)
    • April: 17,768

Gasoline Demand -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45744GASOLINEDEMAND.

Link here.

Inappropriately Exuberant About The Bakken -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45743B.

Link here

From a reader, today:

  • check out market cap of PXD and OXY
  • today, 2:50 p.m., October 12, 2023:
    • OXY: $55.94 billion; p/e = 11; div = 1.14%; shares trading at $65 / share;
    • PXD: $56.04 billion; p/e = 10; div = 6.85%; shares trading at $240 / share;

Now, let's take a look at DVN:

  • DVN: $30 billion; p/e = 6; div = 10.7%; shares trading at $47 / share;

I was so overweight in oil I quit buying "new" oil about two years ago:

  • some exceptions;
  • I consider oil a "utility" now.

I still won't buy "new" oil (with exceptions) but I think I've found another exception.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

WPX Two Shields Well Now Producing -- Well Drilled In 2009 Has Now Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45742B.
 
Disclaimer: I'm doing this on the patio; weather is perfect, but a little windy and I may have errors below. But I think it's pretty close to accurate as is. Let me know if I have errors.
 
Updates

October 12, 2023: a reader alerted me that this well is now producing --
  • 39540, drl, WPX, Two Shields Butte 16-8-7-13H3U, spud date, 2/3/23; stim 5/20/23; t--; cum --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20232934410342843462726691266910
BAKKEN7-20232730850309493143519936199360
BAKKEN6-20233010242997010327688868880

Four wells on that pad:
  • 39539, drl/drl, WPX, Two Shields Butte 16-8-7-13HA, Heart Butte, t--; cum 44K two months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20232924905249222578721055210550
BAKKEN7-20232818620183242705413649136490
  • 18022, IA/711, WPX, Two Shields Butte 16-8-16H, Heart Butte, t6/09; cum 292K 10/22; off line; ignore this one; it goes south; does not parallel the other three
  • 17981, IA/1,666, WPX, Two Shields Buute 16-8-7H, Heart Butte, t6/09; cum 503K 10/22; off line; this is the important one to check up on in about six months for a halo effect?
To the north, WPX has another pad; it originally had four wells -- all drilled in 2019 -- and now two more WPX wells on that pad, but confidential.
Original Post 

See this post, and the comments at that post.

The reader is correct. This well has been fracked / completed.

Fracked May 20, 2023 -- within six months of that date (this fall, 2023) we should start seeing production data. Royalties, I suppose, could start flowing (no pun intended) maybe even as early as August, 2023?


Wow, wow, wow ...

The well:
  • 39540, drl, WPX, Two Shields Butte 16-8-7-13H3U, spud date, 2/3/23; stim 5/20/23; t--; cum --