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Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Five New Permits; Two Permits Canceled; Eight DUCs Reported As Completed -- October 3, 2023

Locator: 45637B.  

McCarthy out. If they can't even run a millionaires' club, how can we expect the GOP to run the country?

BP: looking to sell US pipeline(s) to save dividend. How did that “beyond petroleum” with high-cost, low-margin green energy work out? 

Chinese sub: sinks in Taiwan Strait (?). Estimates of 55 to 70 sailors perish as oxygen system fails. On / about August 21, 2023.

United Airlines: huge order of Boeing, Airbus planes to expand fleet: 110 planes altogether. Recession, stagflation? Whatever.

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Back to the Bakken

Empire North Dakota LLC has been more active lately. From the "Operators Page":

Empire North Dakota, LLC:

Active rigs: 34.

WTI:

Five new permits, #40233 - #40237, inclusive:

  • Operators: Empire North Dakota (3); Iron Oil Operating; WPX
  • Fields: Starbuck (Bottineau County); Bully (McKenzie County); and, Reunion Bay (Mountrail County)
  • Comments:
    • Empire North Dakota has permits for three wells -- a Bufflehead, a Bobwhite, and, a Chinook, NWSE 29-161-78, 
      • to be sited between 2530 FSL and 760 FSL and with one at 2300 FEL: one at 2300 FEL; and one at 2450 FWL;
    • the Iron Oil Stocke well, SESW 36-149-100; 
      • to be sited 400 FSL and 2336 FWL; and
    • the WPX Missouri River well, SWNE 24-150-93; 
      • to be sited 2614 FNL and 2079 FEL

Two permits renewed:

  • Zavana, Shepher 1-3 SWD, Williams County;
  • Enerplus, Queen 152-94-29-32-LL, Antelope oil field, McKenzie County;

Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 27880, 1,451, CLR, Jersey Federal 18-6H,
  • 27882, 737, CLR, Jersey Federal 20-6H2,
  • 39240, 923, CLR, Skachenko FIU 6-31H,
  • 39242, 1,274, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 5-6H1,
  • 39243, 1,008, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 6-6H1,
  • 39244, 678, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 7-6H,
  • 39245, 1,016, CLR, Skachenko FIU 7-31H,
  • 39300, 635, CLR, Skachenko FIU 8-31H1,

McCarthy Out -- Back To These Stories Later -- October 3, 2023

Locator: 45636HEADLINES.

I'll get to these stories later, but in the queue:

Charmin: is this a parody? Did Someone hack Charmin's site? Was this really necessary? Apparently Charmin will also air a YouTube tutorial on how to tear tissue paper for directed to  the iGen, ZGen and AlphaGen. Apparently some folks are having trouble tearing "squares" from the roll.

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For The Archives

In reply to a reader in a sidebar e-mail with nothing to do with the Bakken.

My books right now:
  • Age of Innocence, Edith Wharton; so much better than I expected; got her start in books on interior decorating houses.
  • Hermione Lee's biography of Edith Wharton (done, but now a reference book)
  • The Maniac, Benjamin Labatut -- just started, this is going to be good; very good
  • Lexington (just finished; will donate to local library if they want it)
  • Pterosaurs, Mark Witten;
Movies:
  • I'm back in my Asteroid City phase. This is a movie on the level of Citizen Kane. I don't particularly enjoy watching Citizen Kane, but Asteroid City is cinematically incredible -- no CGI.
  • first -- and perhaps, only -- Covid-19 movie -- Asteroid City.
  • by the way, the movie is a metaphor for the totally dysfunctional US House of Representative  (specifically) and the US government (in general).
  • Asteroid City: huge, huge homage to Shakespeare, specifically MacBeth and Hamlet.
"Music":
  • I'm fascinated with Taylor Swift -- have never heard her sing, but her "business model" is incredible. Her tie-in with the NFL was brilliant. Refused to perform for Super Bowl -- very, very smart decision.
  • NFL is not happy. NFL runs a "Bud Lite" risk. Or at least the networks that air Taylor Swift footage during the game.  If the NFL is not careful, NFL fans could boycott watching KC Chiefs games. NFL is already addressing that concern.
  • some irony that Taylor Swift, Oppenheimer, Asteroid City, and Barbie all peaked about the same time.
Disclaimer: the note above was not proofread -- probably has typographical and content errors.

Why I Love To Blog -- I End Up Going Where I Had Not Expected To Go -- October 3, 2023

Locator: 45635THEMOVIEWORLD.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and content errors. This note is meant to be factual but personal observations are included and may not be easily discernible as such. I've tried to avoid dangling participles and ending sentences with prepositions as much as possible, although the latter concern is so overwhelmingly rejected it should no longer require a disclaimer.

Updates 

October 4, 2023: in the original post I mentioned Nobel's "three-person problem." Interestingly enough, the four individuals for whom most credit is given for advancing mRNA technology, were all recognized by the Novo Nordisk Foundation which awarded them the Novo Nordisk Prize. Link here.

Original Post

See this note from earlier this week re: Nobel Prize in Medicine. Either something was missing or I was missing something.

This is an interesting story. Only three people can be honored for any specific Nobel Prize. Only three people. And yet, one could argue there were four that were in that mRNA group -- two women, two men; the group of four were divided into two couples, a man and a woman each.

It was probably an easy decision for the committee but the issue probably generated a fair bit of discussion.

But before we get to that, this is perhaps one of the better articles on the announcement and the background. Note the citations at the end of the article. 

In a nutshell. The winners of the Nobel Prize were researchers working in separate buildings at "Penn" who just happened to meet at a copying machine and struck up a conversation. One was working on mRNA research; the other on vaccines. A light bulb went on.

They published their findings. 

A year or so later, a Turkish husband/wife team in Germany came across that research [I am unable to "guess" exactly what article in which journal] and just happened to present to Bill and Melinda Gates their own vaccine research which was pretty much unrelated to what the "Penn" folks were doing.

Bill Gates asked if the "Turkish-German" research could benefit from the "Penn" research.

The rest is history. 

The “Turkish-German" researchers formed a company and developed "the" vaccine.

Subsequently, they hired the "Penn" researchers as their chief scientists.

The prize was for mRNA research, not Covid-19 research. That's why the prize went to the "Penn" researchers. Had the prize gone for Covid-19, there would have been the three-person problem. 

Be that as it may, the Nobel selection committee id the right thing ... it was the research that was important and worthy of the prize, not the company that developed a vaccine that came later.

When one reads the history of this entire saga, it will go down as one of the most interesting medical stories, rivaling almost any other research story. Coincidence and serendipity abound. Persistence, tenacity. Discrimination. It just doesn't quit. 

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mRNA

In perspective:

  • late 1700s (specifically 1796): first vaccine; cowpox; 
    • considered by reputable scientists at the time to be fake science;
  • late 1920s, penicillin, bacterial infections defeated (and prevented):
    • scarlet fever, puerperal fever, both with high mortality rates
    • scarlet fever: major global epidemics in the 17th and 18th century; high mortality rates
    • puerperal fever: #1 cause of death related to childbirth; 
      • cause of death considered by reputable physicians to be fake science;
      • physicians resisted hand-washing between patients to stop disease; thought it fake science;
      • sort of like masks and distancing in other epidemics
  • late 1980s (specifically, 1975 / 1986, monoclonal antibody research / licensing
    • completely missed by the general population
    • today: the medications most advertised during network news: monoclonal antibodies;
  • early 2000s, mRNA, broad infection and cancer research;
    • mRNA research / early vaccine develoopment: considered by reputable airheads to be fake science
  • late 2030s, 99% of all Americans will have been treated or vaccinated with at least one mRNA-derived medication, including 99.99% folks who swear that mRNA is the work of the devil
    • pancreatic cancer, colon cancer, small cell lung cancer, and Paget's disease will all be cured / prevented / mitigated / targeted by mRNA vaccines / medications

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The Nobel Prize for Medicine, 2023

Link here.

An incredibly good article. 

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Asteroid City

The first post-Covid 19 movie. 

With regard to Covid-19 and the government's response, as well as the attitude of Americans during the lock down -- this movie was incredible on so many levels.

‘Wee bee sheep.”

One must remember, the production and filming occurred during the Covid-19 lockdown and the cast and crew, while filming, were "in the bubble." This was art imitating life imitating art imitating life.

For those who are unable to understand the "Griddle Scene" in the movie.

From the Mayo Clinic:

Nonsuicidal self-injury, often simply called self-injury, is the act of harming your own body on purpose, such as by cutting or burning yourself. It's usually not meant as a suicide attempt.
This type of self-injury is a harmful way to cope with emotional pain, sadness, anger and stress.
While self-injury may bring a brief sense of calm and a release of physical and emotional tension, it's usually followed by guilt and shame and the return of painful emotions. Life-threatening injuries are usually not intended, but it's possible that more-serious and even fatal self-harm could happen.

Just Getting Started -- October 3, 2023

Locator: 45634TEXAS.

Later: the UAW strike in perspective. For GM, F, and STLA, it’s worse than you think.

BRK / HPQ: Third story in about as many weeks as Warren Buffett continues to sell his HPQ. Link here.

  • again, note: Barron's won't open with the Firefox browser

  • HPQ shares continue to fall in price:
  • BRK sold another 5.1 million shares of HPQ in "recent days";
  • now holds about 100.9 million shares; worth about $2.6 billion at current price, $25.67;
  • Berkshire has been steadily selling HP stock in each of the past nine trading sessions and now holds a 10.2% stake in the company;
  • before the selling began in September (2023), Berkshire held about 120 million shares of HP
  • Berkshire accumulated the HP stake in early 2022 and the sales in the past month were the first since the company finished buying the stock in April 2022.
  • an incredibly short holding period for BRK / Buffett
  • also, TSM -- bought and then sold "almost overnight"
  • it appears something abruptly changed for Buffett
  • has not "yet" sold any of his AAPL

DFW:

  • DFW is now the second busiest airport in the world, behind Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Link here. One through five:
    • Atlanta
    • Dallas-Ft Worth
    • Denver
    • Chicago's O'Hare
    • Dubai International

DFW: to make significant expansion; link here.

  • $9 billion project
  • appears to be joint project between American Airlines and the airport
  • brand new Terminal F
  • upgrade the international terminal, Terminal C
  • currently, 80 million passengers / year
  • by end of decade, forecast: 100 million passengers / year


DFW
: the typical DFW terminal has 36 to 40 gates. An expansion with "only" fifteen new gates begs the question, "why so few?"

  • most likely reason: economics and that's probably how the promoters would answer, 
  • but more likely, officials are anticipating much larger aircraft
  • regardless, this gives the developers some flexibility
  • it would be interesting to see the advantages of a "straight" terminal vs the "curved" terminal, currently the DFW standard

Daimler makes history, link here.

  • reminder: Daimler's EVs are simply a transition to hydrogen -- until hydrogen infrastructure can meet demand
  • but, for Daimler, EV trucks are not the answer -- except perhaps for certain niches -- hydrogen is where Daimler sees the future for trucks: economics, distance, government policy;

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US Oil Production: 13 Million BOPD Is The Target

Back in September, Rystad predicted that the US would hit a new all-time production record. Link here.

Where do we stand today (most recent government figures)? Link here.

When we hit that record:

  • faux environmentalists will ignore it;
  • faux environmentalists, on camera, when asked, will shedd alligator tears;
  • the White House will have no press release congratulating US oil companies.