Pages

Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Politics -- The Presidential Primaries Have Begun -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45473POLITICS. 

FOX NEWS:

There are eleven headline stories over at FOX NEWS. All day, nothing on the Georgia Ten.

Finally, one of the stories addresses the Georgia Ten -- and it's all about a mugshot of Rudy Giuliani. That's it: a story of the mugshot. 

The lead story: details about trips Joe Biden took with Hunter Biden back in .... 2010? 

Not one story about the Georgia Ten --- except as noted for the mugshot.  

MSNBC ratings will surge.

 



TRICARE -- The Military Medical / Health Insurance Program Has Really Stepped Up Its Game -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45472TRICARE.

Link here.

This is really, really amazing. Medicare will not cover health care costs if not approved by FDA and/or other government agencies -- there are exceptions.

However, "we" all know that there are a lot of medications, diagnostic, and therapeutic procedures that are beneficial and due to the FDA glacial bureaucracy have simply not approve them. The retired general officers managing Tricare know this and have taken the bull by the horns. 

See above.

I am very, very impressed. 

For those over retired military 65+, Medicare is "first" payer, and then Tricare covers that which Medicare does not pay. The co-pays are practically zero and the one-year deductible is inconsequential. The premiums for both are pricey but those premiums are paid out of benefits so beneficiaries don't actually have to write a check in most cases.

For active duty military and their spouses, of course, Tricare covers "everything."

****************************
Coverage, Billing, Payments

Absolutely 100% transparent and 100% "seamless."

And that's a fact, Jack. 

Status Of US Gasoline In Storage, Days Of Supply, Current Demand, And Refiners' Activity -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45471B.

Gasoline prices are at "recent"highs.

The Biden administration is "monitoring" this. What concerns them most?

Gasoline demand and status, link here, three charts:



Refiners, weekly EIA petroleum report:

  • refiners are operating at 94.5% of their capacity; pedal to the metal

******************************
Commentary

The Biden administration says they are monitoring the three graphics above. What are they monitoring? What are they worried about?

I'm thinking back to August 17, 2017, to September 3, 2017.

Active Rigs Down To 33 During Prime Drilling Season -- August 3, 2023

Locator: 45470B. 

 Gasoline demand and status, link here, three charts:



Weekly EIA petroleum report:

  • US crude oil in supply: decreased by another fairly respectable 6.1 million bbls of oil; now at 433.5 million bbls, US commercial inventories are 2% below the five-year average;
  • imports: yawn, but 6.3% more than the same four-week period last; we need the right kind of oil for refineries to work optimally
  • refiners are operating at 94.5% of their capacity; pedal to the metal
  • distillate fuel inventories -- little change week over week -- are 16% below the five-year average, going into harvesting season;
  • jet fuel supplied was up 5.6% compared with the same four-week period last year;

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 33.

WTI: $78.89.

One new permit, #39036, a SWD:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill
  • Williams County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 39448, 280, Petro-Hunt, Steen 16-20HN, Divide County;

NVDA Vs BRK-B -- Five Years -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45469INV.

From Yahoo!Finance, five year, BRK-B vs NVDA:

From the blog, earlier, 10-year return, posted several time over the past year, a ten-year return of select stocks:

This slide continues to haunt me.

This is going to be a race among three:
  • NVDA
  • AMD
  • ?

Later, this pops up:


Disclaimer
: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here
. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.


NVDA -- More -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45468TECH.

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Sound bite: whatever the AI sector ultimately is -- billions or trillions? Nvidia will own 80% and no one is even close to cutting into that for several years. Not even close. Some people are suggesting $600 billion for the hardware alone. 

This caught a lot of folks off-guard. From the blog yesterday: 

One might want to look at this again:

July 28, 2023: update -- wiki will update this chart within six months -- INTC getting a lot of press right now, but INTC can only do much through cost-cutting and resting on laurels. The cloud-- where INTC seems to be concentrating right now (Ericsson, 5G) -- has a lot of players: GOOG, AMAZON, AAPL, MSFT, just to name a few . Meanwhile, INTC struggles 10nm chips while AAPL has moved on to 2nm.

Next closest: AMD.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

We haven't even talked "stock split" yet.

This reminds me a lot of AAPL some twenty years ago. 

And, speaking of AAPL, Tim Cook will not mention: headsets; gaming; artificial intelligence.  

 

NVDA -- August 23, 2023 --- HOLY MACKEREL -- BEFORE EARNNGS ARE ANNOUNCED ON CNBC NVDA POPS -- UP $24 After Hours -- CNBC -- A WOW MOMENT -- TELL ME AGAIN, ALL HYPE -- Amazing

Locator: 45467INV.

CNBC: wow, it's amazing how fast their stories change! Talking heads are:

  • giddy, or
  • trying not to act giddy.

CNBC: all of a sudden it's the "Goldilocks" economy over at CNBC

  • all of a sudden, talking heads now say they are not underweight stocks. LOL.
  • this is after six months of telling amateur investors to move their money out of stocks and into bonds.

Autodesk: pops, 6.6%; up $13.45; trading at $18. 

SNOW: down half-a-percent / one percent after hours. Will report shortly.

  • EPS: 0.22 vs $0.10 estimate
  • revenue: $674 vs $662 million est
  • huge beat
  • now, shares down 2%; not as good as investors had hoped 

Splunk: spiking after hours; up 8%.

  • EPS: $0.71 vs $0.45
  • revenue: $911 million vs $886 million

a

**********************************
Awaiting NVDA

NVDA: at close --

  • $470.75, +$14.07; +3.05%.
  • whisper: $14.5 billion.

NVDA: after hours

  • continues to climb; but now not so fast -- bad omen?

Earnings:

  • EPS: $2.70 vs $2.09 estimate
  • revenue: $13.5 billion vs $11.22 billion estimate
  • guidance for next quarter: $16 billion vs $12 billion
  • gross margin 71% for NVDA vs 40% for INTC
  • gross margins, NVDA: 72.5% vs 70.6%
  • CNBC can't believe the delta between NVDA vs INTC

After earnings:

  • $500; up $30; up 6.6%.

Think about this:
the tech companies like Apple, MSFT, AMZN, have very, very, very deep pockets
those companies will spend what it takes to get all the NVDA blades they can get

******************************
Re-Posting

Previous:

Pre-market, Wednesday, August 23, 2023: up $3 after falling $13 yesterday. 

Close today: NVDA could close up or down as much as $30. 

  • at Yahoo!Finance, the one year target is $480; currently trading at $460.

Earnings history.

Why I think NVDA will beat estimates today, perhaps by a wide margin:

  • as everyone knows, NVDA will sell everything it can make; right now there's an insatiable demand:
    • NVDA has the MOJO right now;
    • FOMO is running rampart
  • yes, the above is all true, but way more than that, the CEO has an aura of a "killer-instinct" -- he may be "worse" than Steve Jobs in that regard.

Today's numbers don't matter: my exact sentiments. Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Taxes — August 23, 2023

Locator: 45466INV.

Re-posting.

Locator: 45423MMF.

Locator: 45423ECON.

Updates

August 23, 2023The WSJ now reporting the same story. LOL.

Original Post

Clearly, in uncharted waters. 

  • by the way, money in savings accounts / checking accounts --> "zero" federal income taxes.
  • upwards of 5% interest on $6 trillion in MMFs --> not a trivial amount for the US Treasury (?).

My favorite chartlink here.

Looks Like That Market Crash "Everyone" Has Been Predicting Will Have To Wait Another Day -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45464INV.   


For the record, I'm no longer interested in what (4) NVDA does today. 

I am now interested in the "coat tails."
  • at the tip of my tongue, as they say:
    • (1) AAPL is up 2%; up $3.50; trading at $181.
    • TSM up 2.4%.
    • (19) INTC: up 2.5%
    • (21) QCOM: up 1.3%.
    • (7) AVGO: up 2.0%
    • SWKS: most interesting, to me -- up almost 2%
  • and that's just the ones that quickly come to mind; okay, a few others, now that I have time to think:
    • (2) MSFT: up almost 2%.
    • (45) ASML: up 1.7%.
  • oh, I just forgot, perhaps the most important; see recent posts:
    • (15) AMD: up 3% -- whoo-hoo!
For numbers in parentheses (X), see this post.

ETFs -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45463INV.   

Updates

August 24, 2023: are folks even paying attention? The "Qs" are in the news every day it seems, as the "end-all to be-all" it seems. But look at this, with a $50,000 investment in Invesco's QQQ, you have $6,000 in APPL and $44,000 in 98 other individual stocks, none of which by themselves will move the QQQ needle. Why not just put $10,000 in each of the top five each quarter and re-balance every quarter? Yes, on a quarterly basis, not a lot of diversification, but with quarterly re-balancing based on educated "guesses," the diversification improves over time.

August 24, 2023: again, the QQQ has approximately 100 individual equity holdings (see below). Look what an investor can do with an investment of $5,000 or $50,000 in the top ten holdings at the same percentages. On the other side, look at the trivial amount a $500 billion mutual fund would get if it sold all of its Nvidia at the end of the quarter to lock in profit so the manager would get. her bonus -- it would not even move the needle on the fund's return. One has to remember, the fund also bought this equity at some point in the past.

August 24, 2023: why in the world would a serious investor invest in an ETF? Take QQQ, as an example? 

Like BRK, the top ten holdings in QQQ make up about 50% of total dollar value. The next 90 holdings make up the other 50% and not one of the next 90 holdings will ever move the needle for QQQ. And one pays a fee for an ETF. Why not simply start a new Schwab account (free, no fees, no minimu), "buy" the top ten holdings of any ETF one likes, and re-balance every quarter based on what the ETF is doing. 

Original Post

I've never understood the fascination with ETFs. It seems to me, "real" investors could do better.

Example: Invesco QQQ.

Two data points that make me question the fascination of ETFs.

Total expense ratio: 0.20%.

Approximately one hundred holdings. Here are the top 52 before I got bored and quit tallying.

QQQ

July 26, 2023

Apple

11.62%

MSFT

9.95%

AMZN

5.05%

Nvidia

4.30%

Meta

3.48%

Tesla

3.21%

Broadcom

3.13%

GOOG - A

2.77%

GOOG - B

2.75%

Pepsi

2.16%

Costco

2.05%

Adobe

1.97%

Cisco

1.79%

Netflix

1.56%

AMD

1.49%

Comcast

1.47%

T-Mobile

1.40%

Texas Instruuments

1.38%

INTC

1.38%

Honeywell

1.14%

QCOM

1.40%

Intuuit

1.14%

Amgen

1.03%

Starbucks

0.97%

Applied Materials

0.96%

Intuitiv Surgical

0.95%

Booking Holdings

0.89%

Mondelez

0.83%

Automatic Data Processing

0.81%

Analog Devices

0.80%

Gilead

0.79%

Vretex Pharm

0.75%

Lam Research

0.71%

PayPal

0.67%

Regeneron Pharm

0.64%

Palo Alto Networks

0.61%

Micron

0.59%

Synopsys

0.57%

CSX

0.55%

Cadence Design

0.53%

KLA

0.53%

Fortinet

0.50%

AirBnB

0.50%

Monster Beverage

0.50%

ASML 

0.49%

Charter Comm

0.49%

Marriott

0.49%

MercadoLibre

0.49%

O’Reilly Auto

0.48%

NXP Semi

0.47%

Marvell Tech

0.45%

Cintas

0.43%

For those investing in an ETF, such as QQQ, some questions to ponder:
  • do you expect to "make money" investing in QQQ?
  • do you expect QQQ to do better than the NASDAQ as a whole?
  • is there a NASDAQ ETF?
  • if there is a NASDAQ ETF, has it historically done better or worse than the QQQ?
  • could you invest without incurring any expenses? Any fees?
  • can you think of a better way to invest in the NASDAQ?

*******************************
The Book Club

Edvard Muunch, Behind the Scream, Sue Prideaux, c. 2005.

Notes.

Does Google Have An AI Problem? August 23, 2023

Locator: 45461AI.   

Updates

Later, 11:38 a.m. CT: apparently google has fixed the problem.

Original Post

Problems?

On Firefox and Safari, if you use "Google" and google "ticker NVDA" this is what you get. It makes absolutely no sense. This has been going on all morning.

Yahoo!Finance has it right:

Global Warming -- The Facts -- The Charts -- The Temperatures -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45460GW.  

Link here.


I particularly enjoy the comments from the Algore crowd. How does one spell the plural of doofus?

Covid-19 -- Big Pharma -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45459INV.  

Big Pharma: it's back. MRNA was up 5% yesterday. PFE, flat.

Abercrombie and Fitch soars. Shares up 20%. Apparently thieves don’t like what ANF sells.

Foot Locker, Pelton: both plunge 30% on earnings, guidance.

Nike:

Dick's:


Pet peeve: retailers not figuring out how to stop theft. Either that or quit talking about it. That's a poor excuse for missing earnings estimates.

ICYMI -- Dots Exiting North Dakota -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45458ND. 

Dot's Pretzels: to exit Velva, ND. Link here.

That "Bull Case" For Oil Looking More And More Precarious -- Looks Like We'll Have To Wait Another Year -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45457WTI.

Re-posting from earlier this morning:

WTI: oh, boy! $78.51. 

Do folks remember how "oil bulls" told us during the entire first half off 2023, WTI was going to trend much higher in the second half, some saying as high as $100? Well, so far, we're trending lower. That's why I quit following "Josh" over at twitter. He became more and more irrelevant if not completely wrong. I can only take so much. Sort of like Jim Cramer over at CNBC. Yes, I know it's the summer doldrums and we just have to wait for October. [Later: Bloomberg is saying the very same thing. I'll post that later.]

Now, from Bloomberg in their early morning daily note.

Since the start of the year, oil watchers have widely predicted that prices would end 2023 on a high note. That forecast is looking more and more precarious.

After surging to a six-month high above $88 a barrel in London two weeks ago, the rally has fizzled out. On Wednesday, international benchmark Brent was trading below $83.

In theory, inventories should be depleting at the fastest clip in two years as China’s post-pandemic rebound and output cuts by OPEC+ tighten the market. But as analysts at Julius Baer Group Ltd. said this week: “The oil market is just about adequately supplied, and the much-awaited tightening is still pending.”

Debate has swayed in recent weeks on whether the market’s foil was supply or demand. The answer now appears to be both.

Consumption is under pressure as China, the world’s biggest oil importer, contends with crises ranging from youth unemployment to turmoil in its property and shadow banking sectors. A top executive suggests the nation’s fuel use may have maxed out for the year.

Also from Bloomberg: remember all that talk that China could hold back exports of rare metals needed for the EV sector. Chart of the day:

WTI Continues To Trend Down -- August 23, 2023

Locator: 45456B.

TMX pipeline: likely to start "later" in 1Q24. Link to Argus.

  • this is that Canadian pipeline that has discombobulated the indigenous folks up there, eh?
  • 590,000 -- let's just call it, 600,000 b/d pipeline -- same size as the Biden-killed Keystone XL
  • $23 billion
  • federally-owned
  • tolls have increased significantly due to cost overruns due to indiginous folks and others delahying the project
    • TransMountain says it will be responsible for 69 percent of the cost overruns since 2017, while the remaining 31% will be passed on to shippers in the form of higher tolls.
  • my hunch: won't be "full" until 2Q24 at the earlier 

Dot's Pretzels: to exit Velva, ND. Link here.

Lake Mead: follow-up in ten days. Link here.

***********************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: oh, boy! $78.51. Do folks remember how "oil bulls" told us during the entire first half off 2023, WTI was going to trend much higher in the second half, some saying as high as $100? Well, so far, we're trending lower. That's why I quit following "Josh" over at twitter. He became more and more irrelevant if not completely wrong. I can only take so much. Sort of like Jim Cramer over at CNBC. Yes, I know it's the summer doldrums and we just have to wait for October. [Later: Bloomberg is saying the very same thing. I'll post that later.]

Thursday, August 24, 2023: 44 for the month; 246 for the quarter, 491 for the year
38993, conf, Hess, TI-Stenbak-158-95-2526H-8,
37932, conf, BR, Parrish 3C TFH,

Wednesday, August 23, 2023: 42 for the month; 244 for the quarter, 489 for the year
39448, conf, CLR, Edward 8-23H1,

RBN Energy: understanding North American crude oil markets in the export era. Archived.

There’s a lot going on in North American crude oil markets these days. Exports are running strong. Midland WTI is now deliverable into Brent (but only if it meets specs). Pipelines from the Permian to Corpus Christi are maxed out, pushing incremental production to Houston. The price differential between WTI at Midland and Houston is nearing zero. And the value of heavy Western Canadian Select (WCS) delivered to the U.S. continues to bounce all over the place. Are these unrelated, random events in the quirky U.S. physical crude market, or are they logical developments linked by the economics of refinery preferences, quality shifts, export demand, and logistics? As you might expect, we think it’s the latter. Believe it or not, crude markets sometimes do behave rationally — and, from time to time, even predictably. That’s what we explore in today’s RBN blog.