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Tuesday, August 22, 2023

NVDA -- After Market Close, Today, Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Locator: 45455INV.

Pre-market, Wednesday, August 23, 2023: up $3 after falling $13 yesterday. 

Close today: NVDA could close up or down as much as $30. At Yahoo!Finance, the one year target is $480; currently trading at $460.

Earnings history.

Why I think NVDA will beat estimates today, perhaps by a wide margin:

  • as everyone knows, NVDA will sell everything it can make; right now there's an insatiable demand:
    • NVDA has the MOJO right now;
    • FOMO is running rampart
  • yes, the above is all true, but way more than that, the CEO has an aura of a "killer-instinct" -- he may be "worse" than Steve Jobs in that regard.

Today's numbers don't matter: my exact sentiments. Link here.



Re-Posting: Rambling Thoughts On Investing, Next Big Thing -- August 22, 2023

Locator: 45454INV.

The next big thing: Locator: 10001TNBT. 

Re-posting.

Investing

In an e-mail sidebar to a reader on investing I wrote:

With regard to Nvidia and earnings this week: yeah, I don’t know. 

September will be my big month for new dollars investing. 

30% will go into tech. 20% into Big Pharma. 

I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say AI is akin to the Industrial Revolution in Britain in the 1800s in terms of advances we’re going to see over the next 50 years. 

Oil has become a utility sector. 

Big Pharma is not trusted by anyone. 

Car manufacturers are going to be greatly challenged for the next 10 years, maybe longer. 

Amazon will simply get bigger and bigger. I don’t invest in Amazon. Plenty of other options. 

Next big thing: I have no idea. It may be spatial computing but it may take 10 years to play out. 

I had not looked at SRE in a long time: pays 7% and may be the best positioned utility in the US and selling at a great discount right now. I can’t buy more because I have way too much. But with today’s 2-1 split I may reconsider, which of course makes no sense -- a split doesn't change anything. 

As long as MMFs pay 5 - 6%, equities are going to have to up their game to attract investors. 

Shortly after writing the above, I've reconsidered. I'm still trying to sort out Amazon. I do think -- despite what I wrote above -- I will start a position in Amazon, add it to my "Tech" bucket. 

UPS, FedEx, DHL, USPS are mid-streamers: pipelines, logistics, delivery systems.

Amazon: was a mid-streamer decades ago. Amazon is now vertically integrated from upstream (the cloud) to midstream (Amazon logistics) to downstream (Whole Foods). 

So, we add, Amazon to the tech bucket.

We'll talk about the huge pay packet won by the workers later. For now: this, the song.

SRE makes no difference but with that 2-1 split, SRE management seems to be making a statement, a better statement than BUD made with regard to Bud Lite -- a Texas two-step debcle.

Back to the "next big thing." Logistics, delivery, midstream, for some, might not be the next big thing "by definition" because it's been here for decades, but I do think "logistics, delivery, midstream" by another name is the next big thing, even though it's been around years: "last mile delivery."

"Last mile delivery": short term -- Amazon, UPS, DHL, USPS, FedEx (in the US) -- the winner by a long mile -- Amazon. Except for Amazon, none of the others have a moat, and as investments DHL and USPS are not even in play.    

"Last mile delivery": long term -- whoever wins at robotic delivery. Amazon with Rivian experience, I think, is in the lead for robotic delivery. 

FedEx "when it absolutely, positively has to get there overnight"? That has become a cartoonish meme in 2023. Amazon is now doing that -- overnight delivery -- for the majority of packages without charging extra. From what little I know, and I know very little, head-to-head, FedEx has the worst reputation for delivery (disregarding overnight-must-be there-for-a-very-high-price). Just ask the folks in Portland, OR. 

So, there's that. Amazon. 

Now, back to SRE.  A 2 - 1 split doesn't mean a thing, until it does. And in this case, the split got my attention. And I'm re-thinking adding to my position. It pays 7% and seems to be the best-positioned natural gas utility in the US -- with huge operations in California, Texas, and Mexico.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Amazon: what business is Amazon in? Link here.


More here.

Holy Mackerel! I Just Had A Conversation With ChatGPT -- August 22, 2023

Locator: 45453AI. 

I was in the process of putting together a "back story on Amazon" when I was directed to a site which gave me an incredible reply -- and there at the top, the site said my reply was provided by ChatGPT. 

At the end of the reply, the robotic moderator asked me if I wanted more information. I answered in the affirmative and got another 6-paragraph reply, also from ChatGPT, with additional background.

At the end of that -- yes, you guessed it -- the robotic moderator asked if I wanted more information. 

It could go on forever.

If you are at all interested in ChatGPT (OpenAI, AI), run, don't walk to your nearest bookstore and get a copy of the current issue of The Atlantic. It's cover story is on AI.

I'll be making photocopies of this article and will send it to several folks who need to read it, and, of course, I will scan it and send it electronically to others.

**********************
Building A House

Bricks and timber.

How Grouch Marx and Harpo got their start in vaudeville.

********************************
Del

Link here. Released, early 1961. Wiki.

Pianist: Burton Cummings.

Max Crook.

Global Fossil Fuel Production And Consumption -- 2022 Statistical Report

Locator: 45452OIL.

Updates

August 23, 2023: global oil consumption nears all-time highs. Robert Rapier over at oilprice.

Original Post

Is anyone doing the math? This has been going on for quite some time. Link here.

  • global oil production (liquids to include lease condensate and NGLs)
    • 2022: 93.8 billion bpd (just sort of the 2019 record)
    • 2021: 90 million bopd
    • 2019: 94.8 million bod (all-time high)
  • global oil consumption:
    • 2022: 97.3 million bpd
    • 2021: 94.2 million bpd
    • 2019: ~ 99.8 million bpd (all-time high)
  • Global producers:
    • oil production: US took the lead in 2014 and has led every year since then but one
    • 2022: US oil production just 3.5% short of all-time record set in 2019; 
      • on pace to set new production record this year [despite E&Ps cutting back on CAPEX and drilling]
      • the US enjoys a lead over both Saudi Arabia and Russia but not be much, only a million bpd
    • but when you include NGLs, then the spread is amazing
      • 2022:
        • US: 17.8 million bpd
        • Saudi Arabia: 12.2 million bpd
        • Russia: 11.2 million bpd
  • Global top ten consumers:
    • Germany dropped out of the top-10 list
    • Mexico joined the list at #10

Koda Resources With Three New Permits; WPX Cancels Six Skunk Creek Permits -- August 22, 2023

Locator: 45451B.

Is anyone doing the math? This has been going on for quite some time. Link here.

  • global oil production (liquids to include lease condensate and NGLs)
    • 2022: 93.8 billion bpd (just sort of the 2019 record)
    • 2021: 90 million bopd
    • 2019: 94.8 million bod (all-time high)
  • global oil consumption:
    • 2022: 97.3 million bpd
    • 2021: 94.2 million bpd
    • 2019: ~ 99.8 millionn bpd (all-time high)
  • Global producers:
    • oil production: US took the lead in 2014 and has led every year since then but one
    • 2022: US oil production just 3.5% short of all-time record set in 2019; 
    • on pace to set new production record this year [despite E&Ps cutting back on CAPEX and drillng]
    • the US enjoys a lead over both Saudi Arabia and Russia but not be much, only a million bpd
    • but when you include NGLs, then the spread is amazing
      • 2022:
      • US: 17.8 million bpd
      • Saudi Arabia: 12.2 million bpd
      • Russia: 11.2 million bpd
  • Global top ten consumers:
    • Germany dropped out of the top-10 list
    • Mexico joined the list at #10

******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $80.35.

Active rigs: 38.

Three new permits, #40147 - #40149, inclusive:

  • Operator: Koda Resources
  • Field: Fertile Valley (Divide County)
  • Comments:
    • Koda Resources has permits for three Amber wells, SESW 14-160-103, 
      • to be sited 500 FSL and between 2220 FWL and 2280 FWL

Six permits canceled:

  • WPX: six Skunk Creek permits, NWSW 10-148-93 and NWNW 24-149-93.

SRE: Two-For-One Split -- 2-1 Split Efffective Today -- August 22, 2023

Locator: 45450INV.

This could be pretty frightening if one didn't know. LOL.


***************************
Investing

In an e-mail sidebar to a reader on investing I wrote:

With regard to Nvidia and earnings this week: yeah, I don’t know. 

September will be my big month for new dollars investing. 

30% will go into tech. 20% into Big Pharma. 

I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say AI is akin to the Industrial Revolution in Britain in the 1800s in terms of advances we’re going to see over the next 50 years. 

Oil has become a utility sector. 

Big Pharma is not trusted by anyone. 

Car manufacturers are going to be greatly challenged for the next 10 years, maybe longer. 

Amazon will simply get bigger and bigger. I don’t invest in Amazon. Plenty of other options. 

Next big thing: I have no idea. It may be spatial computing but it may take 10 years to play out. 

I had not looked at SRE in a long time: pays 7% and may be the best positioned utility in the US and selling at a great discount right now. I can’t buy more because I have way too much. But with today’s 2-1 split I may reconsider, which of course makes no sense -- a split doesn't change anything. 

As long as MMFs pay 5 - 6%, equities are going to have to up their game to attract investors. 

Shortly after writing the above, I've reconsidered. I'm still trying to sort out Amazon. I do think -- despite what I wrote above -- I will start a position in Amazon, add it to my "Tech" bucket. 

UPS, FedEx, DHL, USPS are mid-streamers: pipelines, logistics, delivery systems.

Amazon: was a mid-streamer decades ago. Amazon is now vertically integrated from upstream (the cloud) to midstream (Amazon logistics) to downstream (Whole Foods). 

So, we add, Amazon to the tech bucket.

We'll talk about the huge pay packet won by the workers later. For now: this, the song.

SRE makes no difference but with that 2-1 split, SRE management seems to be making a statement, a better statement than BUD made with regard to Bud Lite -- a Texas two-step debcle.

Back to the "next big thing." Logistics, delivery, midstream, for some, might not be the next big thing "by definition" because it's been here for decades, but I do think "logistics, delivery, midstream" by another name is the next big thing, even though it's been around years: "last mile delivery."

"Last mile delivery": short term -- Amazon, UPS, DHL, USPS, FedEx (in the US) -- the winner by a long mile -- Amazon. Except for Amazon, none of the others have a moat, and as investments DHL and USPS are not even in play.    

"Last mile delivery": long term -- whoever wins at robotic delivery. Amazon with Rivian experience, I think, is in the lead for robotic delivery. 

FedEx "when it absolutely, positively has to get there overnight"? That has become a cartoonish meme in 2023. Amazon is now doing that -- overnight delivery -- for the majority of packages without charging extra. From what little I know, and I know very little, head-to-head, FedEx has the worst reputation for delivery (disregarding overnight-must-be there-for-a-very-high-price). Just ask the folks in Portland, OR. 

So, there's that. Amazon. 

Now, back to SRE.  A 2 - 1 split doesn't mean a thing, until it does. And in this case, the split got my attention. And I'm re-thinking adding to my position. It pays 7% and seems to be the best-positioned natural gas utility in the US -- with huge operations in California, Texas, and Mexico.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Amazon: what business is Amazon in? Link here.


More here.

Investing: Articles Like These Mean Less And Less To Me Each Day -- August 22, 2023

Locator: 45449INV.

Fed rates, and NVDALink here

In order of importance for investing, for me.

most important:

  • books
  • monthly magazines
  • dailies, like Barron's, The WSJ

Of some importance:

  • CNBC
  • Yahoo!Finance

Of very, very little utility:

  • ZeroHedge
  • talking heads anywhere on the net



Amazon -- August 22, 2023

Locator: 45448INV. 

Amazon: what business is Amazon in? Link here.

Vinfast to list on Nasdaq. Link here.

Investing -- August 22, 2023

Locator: 45447INV.

EFTs: I've never understood the fascination of EFTs. More on that later. 

Forbes, "display until October 15, 2023, special issue" is a special disappointment. Nothing worth posting except these two items:


Fortune: the stories follow.

New startup

  • the founder of WeWork now has a new company: Flow.
  • as a renter, his idea intrigues me
  • a16z: Andreessen Horowitz; his noncompete, non-solicit exit agreement with WeWork expires Halloween, this year (October 30, 2023)
  • I'm not sure I would want to invest in the company -- no moat for example; no dividend; but if forty years younger and knowing what I know now, I would love to be part of the company

Saudi Arabia: a tidal wave of money. Spend everywhere.

  • will confound / disrupt legacy and startup businesses globally, but nowhere more than in the US
  • think PGA-LIV: some of those golfers are going to earn more just by signing with the new golfing association than they will earn in tournament winnings over five years in the PGA -- maybe ten year -- and they will play fewer tournaments, fewer days per tournament
  • power can be traced to one company: Saudi Aramco
  • "the Saudis can turn oil production on and off by fiat" -- former US diplomat to Saudi Arabia

AI: "AI has become a proxy in the battle for primacy between China and the US" -- Kerry Brown, King's College, London

  • US-based leaders in AI: Nvidia an Advanced Micro Devices
  • Biden's restrictions on "US chips to China" could put China one to two generations behind the US -- China can live with that; China can't compete if they fall ten generations behind the US
  • one may want to watch Apple's announcements in mid-September, 2023

See's Candies:

  • full-page ad: "It's never too early to think about the holidays"
  • corporate gifts and events

Apple: spatial computing -- a two-page article on Apple's VisionPro

  • VisionPro could finally make augmented reality a hit (Tim Cook sees it as much more than "augmented reality")
  • if VisionPro flops, could lead to a "decade-long AR winter"
  • Apple and Steve Jobs have had flops before and did just fine
  • I'm more interested in
      • spatial computing,
      • the chips,
      • the vision,
    • than VisionPro itself

USAF fighter: a several-page article on the F-35

  • $1.7 trillion
  • largest program inside the Pentagon, by far
  • annual budget: $12 billion
  • Lockheed Martin
  • assembly plant: Ft Worth, TX
  • ten years late; 80% over budget
  • "every air force" wants it 
  • anticipated life-span: 60 years
  • B-52: maiden flight, in 1952; still operational
  • Germany has bought 40 F-35 jets; $8 billion
  • Canada is interested in buying 88 F-35s
  • Lockheed has delivered 960 so far; 630 to the US military
  • has performed "effectively" in combat multiple times

Ozempic, Novo Nordisk.

Fortune Global 500, by revenue:

  • Walmart
  • Saudi Aramco
  • Stategrid (China)
  • Amazon.com
  • China National Petroleum
  • Sinopec Group
  • ExxonMobil
  • Apple
  • Shell
  • UnitedHealthGroup
  • CVS Health
  • Trafigura Group (Singapore)
  • China State Construction Engineering
  • Berkshire Hathaway
  • Volkswagen
  • Uniper
  • Alphabet (first real tech company on the list at #17)
  • McKesson 
  • YoyotaMotor
  • Total Energies
  • Glencore
  • BP
  • Chevron
  • Amerisource Bergen
  • Samsung Electronics
  • Costco Wholesale
  • Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn)
  • Industrial & Commercial Bank of China
  • China Construction Bank
  • Microsoft (at #30)
  • Stellantis (at #31)
  • .....
  • Marathon Petroleum (#36; up from #49 in 2021)
  • Phillips 66 (#37, up from #74 in 2021)
  • ...
  • Ford Motor (#46, up from #53 in 2021)
  • Mercedes Benz
  • ....
  • General Motors (#50, up from #64 in 2021)

First page of the list of 500:

The winners and losers (look at the top right): 

"A Delayed Payment Is A Delayed Opportunity" -- August 22, 2023

Locator: 45446INV.

Time value of money, link here:


From wiki:

 ******************************
Time Value of Money

I was talking with an amateur investor yesterday with whom I see every few months -- we have nothing in common, except as a sidebar -- talk about investing. I have no idea what is in his portfolio. I do know that he prefers mutual funds, and not individual stock picking. His background is, to say the least, not in finance, or business.

He is much younger than I (am), but his income is significantly more than what mine was at his age -- taking inflation and the "smaller" dollar into consideration.  He is still working, perhaps at the peak of his earning power, and his income is such, he says, the government / IRS won't allow him to take advantage of Roth IRAs (or traditional IRAs, either for that matter, because his company provides a pension of some time). 

Whatever.

I thought this was interesting: he said -- due to the time value of money -- he has probably invested for twenty years -- his investments have now grown so big now that whenever he has additional money to invest, "it does not move the needle."

I nodded my head, suggesting that I could understand that. And then we moved on.

Later, two things, came to mind.

First, if I have an extra $50 at the end of the month, I will find something that sells for less than $50 / share in one of my various investment buckets. I care not for slices, for the most part; some exceptions.  I prefer to by whole shares, even if it's just one share at a time.

And I buy a share or two. That investor with whom I was talking was correct. That $50 does not move the needle at all. But that investor forgets his own conversation about the time value of money. Over twenty years that $50 at 6% annually, that $50 will grow into $160. Over a year, $50 / month, that $600 will grow to around $20,000 over 20 years. Again, not much perhaps. But, now, to the second point.

Link here.

By the way, assuming an annual dividend of 3% that doesn't increase, and appreciation of 6% annually, that $50 / month grows to $36,000. [Folks can run their own numbers; I often make simple arithmetic errors.]

Second, finding a $25 / share stock, 24 shares / year, 480 shares over 20 years.

That $50 / month I will never miss, and my heirs won't care a bit how much that stock cost me, but if I had started buying two shares of AAPL every month twenty years ago, I would be thrilled with the 480 shares I would now have. "Worse," I started investing in 1984 -- 40 years ago -- so I guess I would have nearly 1,000 shares of AAPL. And twenty years from now, at two shares/month, I would have another 500 shares, or about 1,500 shares, accumulated with the equivalent of "pin money" that I wasn't going to spend anyway.

A delayed payment is a delayed (and in some cases, a missed) opportunity.

This seems like such common sense, but the investor with whom I spoke yesterday said it in a tone of voice as if he were now taking courses in finance and / or investing, and his professor talked to the class about the time value of money, something the students had not considered before.

In some respects, it's amazing that both Investopedia and wikipedia have articles on the subject, suggesting that it's an important concept missed by many.

And, or by the way, there are many "derivatives" that "fall away" from what seems to be a very, very obvious / simple concept.

For me, hearing that was like being a kid in a candy shop. It reinforced that spending $50 at the end of the month on two shares of "something" isn't crazy.

***************************
Compound Growth

Link here.