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Tuesday, August 22, 2023

Investing -- August 22, 2023

Locator: 45447INV.

EFTs: I've never understood the fascination of EFTs. More on that later. 

Forbes, "display until October 15, 2023, special issue" is a special disappointment. Nothing worth posting except these two items:


Fortune: the stories follow.

New startup

  • the founder of WeWork now has a new company: Flow.
  • as a renter, his idea intrigues me
  • a16z: Andreessen Horowitz; his noncompete, non-solicit exit agreement with WeWork expires Halloween, this year (October 30, 2023)
  • I'm not sure I would want to invest in the company -- no moat for example; no dividend; but if forty years younger and knowing what I know now, I would love to be part of the company

Saudi Arabia: a tidal wave of money. Spend everywhere.

  • will confound / disrupt legacy and startup businesses globally, but nowhere more than in the US
  • think PGA-LIV: some of those golfers are going to earn more just by signing with the new golfing association than they will earn in tournament winnings over five years in the PGA -- maybe ten year -- and they will play fewer tournaments, fewer days per tournament
  • power can be traced to one company: Saudi Aramco
  • "the Saudis can turn oil production on and off by fiat" -- former US diplomat to Saudi Arabia

AI: "AI has become a proxy in the battle for primacy between China and the US" -- Kerry Brown, King's College, London

  • US-based leaders in AI: Nvidia an Advanced Micro Devices
  • Biden's restrictions on "US chips to China" could put China one to two generations behind the US -- China can live with that; China can't compete if they fall ten generations behind the US
  • one may want to watch Apple's announcements in mid-September, 2023

See's Candies:

  • full-page ad: "It's never too early to think about the holidays"
  • corporate gifts and events

Apple: spatial computing -- a two-page article on Apple's VisionPro

  • VisionPro could finally make augmented reality a hit (Tim Cook sees it as much more than "augmented reality")
  • if VisionPro flops, could lead to a "decade-long AR winter"
  • Apple and Steve Jobs have had flops before and did just fine
  • I'm more interested in
      • spatial computing,
      • the chips,
      • the vision,
    • than VisionPro itself

USAF fighter: a several-page article on the F-35

  • $1.7 trillion
  • largest program inside the Pentagon, by far
  • annual budget: $12 billion
  • Lockheed Martin
  • assembly plant: Ft Worth, TX
  • ten years late; 80% over budget
  • "every air force" wants it 
  • anticipated life-span: 60 years
  • B-52: maiden flight, in 1952; still operational
  • Germany has bought 40 F-35 jets; $8 billion
  • Canada is interested in buying 88 F-35s
  • Lockheed has delivered 960 so far; 630 to the US military
  • has performed "effectively" in combat multiple times

Ozempic, Novo Nordisk.

Fortune Global 500, by revenue:

  • Walmart
  • Saudi Aramco
  • Stategrid (China)
  • Amazon.com
  • China National Petroleum
  • Sinopec Group
  • ExxonMobil
  • Apple
  • Shell
  • UnitedHealthGroup
  • CVS Health
  • Trafigura Group (Singapore)
  • China State Construction Engineering
  • Berkshire Hathaway
  • Volkswagen
  • Uniper
  • Alphabet (first real tech company on the list at #17)
  • McKesson 
  • YoyotaMotor
  • Total Energies
  • Glencore
  • BP
  • Chevron
  • Amerisource Bergen
  • Samsung Electronics
  • Costco Wholesale
  • Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn)
  • Industrial & Commercial Bank of China
  • China Construction Bank
  • Microsoft (at #30)
  • Stellantis (at #31)
  • .....
  • Marathon Petroleum (#36; up from #49 in 2021)
  • Phillips 66 (#37, up from #74 in 2021)
  • ...
  • Ford Motor (#46, up from #53 in 2021)
  • Mercedes Benz
  • ....
  • General Motors (#50, up from #64 in 2021)

First page of the list of 500:

The winners and losers (look at the top right): 

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