Week 25: June 19, 2023 -- June 26, 2023

Locator: 45034B.

Top story:

• Coup in Moscow? Putin almost overthrown and the story dies in less than 24 hours!
  
• Russian history in five words: “… and then things got worse.”
• “And just like that the Nordstream pipeline story disappeared.”
• A second group of Russians have invaded Russia.
• I’ll believe this is serious when Christiane Amanpour shows up in Moscow
• Tucker leads with: “ … the submarine is still sunk.”

Top international non-energy story:

• Russian-Ukraine war continues.
• Russia, Ukraine, and now Belarus
• Prigozhin “exiled” in Belarus
• a strategic re-org?
• to what extent does Prigozhin build a “new” army?
• OceanGate Titan submarine implodes; five souls lost. 

Top international energy story:

• Tesla: inside track to universal supercharger.
  

Top national non-energy story:

• 
  

Top national energy story: 

• WTI breaks below $70 again.
  

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• 
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

• Data processing center; Ellendale, ND; huge electricity demand.
  

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

•  Quick connects.
  

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment: “Everything Everywhere All At Once.”

We May Be Hearing A Lot About The FSB Over The Weekend -- There's No Huurricane To Distract Us -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45033FSB.

With regard to Prigozhin / Wagner, it sure seems like folks are missing the BIG story, the story that plays out regardless.

China is watching closely. Male unemployment at 20%.

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Haircut By Sophia

My last haircut by a professional barber was in late February / early March, 2020. None since.

All my haircuts since then have been done by Sophia. First haircut by Sophia was when she was five. She will turn nine later this summer.

EV Tickers When Things Start To Fall Apart -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45032EVS.

The tickers:

• LCID: down almost 5% today; trading at $5.47; one year: down 72%
• RIDE: down 12% today; trading at $2.98; one year: down 89%
• RIVN: down 4% today; trading at $13.53; one year: down 54%
• FSR: down 3% today; trading at $5.09; one year: down 45% (Ocean)
• GOEV (Canoo): down 3% today; trading at 50 cents; one year: down 78%
• F: down 1% today; trading at $14.02; one year: UP 17% over the past 52 weeks;
• PSNYW: down 4% today; trading at 66 cents; down 76% over the past year;
• ARVL: down 1% today; trading at $2.14; down 97% over the past year;
  

Scorecard: here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

The Great Migration -- Running The "Okie Migration" Film Backwards -- Go East, Young Man -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45031ARCH.  

Link here.

Flashback:

Now this (see link above):

This is not trivial. This could affect California's state budget significantly. It's happened before.

Meanwhile the Southern Surge continues.

Go east, young man:

End-Of-Day Report -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45030B. 

Groningen gas fields: officially closed, as of October 1, 2023. Link here. Will remain on operational status for one year to "manage" this winter, if necessary. After that, closed permanently and dismantled. 

Oil prices soar in MidEast: not yet reflected in WTI. Not sure what this means, original article at ZeroHedge (consider the source). Link here. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 38.

WTI: $69.16.

Eight new permits, #39900 - #39997, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (6); Ragnar Exploration (2)
• Fields: Elidah (McKenzie); Fryburg (Billings)
• Comments:
• Ragnar has permits for two wells, a Reardon well and a Francisco well, both SESE 17-139-100, Fryburg, Billings, 
• both to be sited 1255 FEL with the Reardon well 300 FSL and the Francisco well, 345 FSL
• CLR has permits for six Omlid wells, NENW 30-151-97;
• to be sited 435 FNL and between 1500 FWL and 1660 FWL.

Four permits renewed:

• Enerplus: four Olson permits, SWSW 34-147-97; Little Knife, Dunn County.

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39127, 40, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Szarka 2-36-35-159N-100W-MBH;
• 39130, 90, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Claire Rose 4-31-30-158N-99W-MBH;
• 39131, 162, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Amelia Grace 4-6-7-158N-99W-MBH;
• 39146, 298, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-3H;
• 39148, 307, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-5H;

SCOTUS, 7 - 2: Encouraging One To Commit A Crime Is Not Protected Free Speech -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45029SCOTUS. 

Link here.

Fifth Circuit On Workers' Discrimination Claims -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45028LAW. Workers' discrimination claims.

From Bloomberg Law today:

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Flight School, Day 5
USAF
Hosted By Edwards AFB, CA

On A Roll -- Another Huge Win For Biden Administration -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45027SCOTUS.  

Almost unanimous, 8 - 1.

States had no legal standing to bring this case to court.

Case thrown out?

Link here.

Huge implications.

Federal government "controls" border, not individual states? That would be my first take, but I have not idea. I really don't follow this stuff all that closely.

Earlier in the week the court ruled in favor of US federal government in decision "against" the Navajo sovereign nation.

Are we seeing a trend with regard to the US Supreme Court and the sovereignty of the US and the US constitution? Again, I don't know.

Coming Soon -- Disney Castle -- Lego -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45026LEGO.  

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101 Days Of Summer -- Day 27

Going biking.

Warm --> hot but still a nice day to ride.

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Lego 

Link here.

In the news, link here. No risk involved. Except to your wallet.

***********************
Hat Day 

Grammy's in Portland, OR! Not everyone looks thrilled with "hat day."

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Flashback

**********************
Flight School

Palmdale, CA.

With the USAF, hosted by Edwards AFB, California.

Olivia, age 16.

Market -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45025INV. 

Three overriding points:

• the US is in an incredibly good place;
• stay-flation, not stagflation.
• expect a very, very scary summer.

For rest of story, see this post.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

For those who say this is not the time to buy: oil is down across the board today. WTI is now trending toward $68. But human nature being what it is, folks will buy CVX and COP and PSX and DVN and CHRD when WTI trends toward $72 again. Trust me on this one.

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Franchises.

Link here. If this surprises you, consider my two favorite graphics:

Folks have a lot of cash. 

$10 at fast-food beats $60 at Chili's any day.

And then, of course, there's the $35-million pre-fab fixer-upper on Lake Tahoe.

PBT -- Another Nice Dividend Boost -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45024INV. 

Link here.

Look closely: these are monthly increases, monthly payments, not quarterly:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Ford -- A Stand-Alone Post -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45023EVS.

Ramping up production of EVs-- which will never have much of a profit margin -- compared to the decked-out Ford ICE F-150 Raptor -- is very, very, very expensive. Ford admits it and it's a recurrent theme on the blog.

I think Ford is in more trouble -- at least short term -- than folks think. Two things:

Yesterday, this is a loan, not a grant or a gift, but a loan:

Largest loan in the history of the government's DOE Loan Program Office. Think about that. DOE was established to monitor / assist / promote the US nuclear program. Nukes -- one word -- expensive. There must have been a lot of "nuke" loans over the years -- now a car manufacturer saw a need to set that record. Think about that.

• link here.

And then today: Ford announces another round of layoffs -- this time, salaried workers. Ford won't simply bee cutting ICE assets, but also... EV assets. Now that Ford has give up on its own charging network and partnered with the richest man in the world to do it right, Ford no longer needs that division.

From the linked article:

Motor is preparing to initiate another round of layoffs in the coming weeks, the latest in a broader effort by the automaker to streamline operations and reduce costs.

The layoffs, expected to mostly include U.S. salaried workers, would be one of several that Ford has initiated in less than a year and could be announced as early as next week.

The number of people Ford plans to lay off in this latest round couldn’t be learned. The cuts are expected to affect employees on Ford’s gas-engine side of the business, as well as its electric-vehicle and software division. 

I think Ford is in more trouble than analysts are willing to say out loud.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

The Market -- Coors Light Embraces Pride Parade -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45023INV.  

VIX: at lowest levels since January, 2020.

Wall Street's so-called "fear index" — the CBOE Volatility Index — fell to 12.73 Thursday, the lowest reading since January 2020.

As stocks snap a three-day losing streak and return to climbing the proverbial wall of worry, the VIX is signaling the most complacency in stocks since just prior to the pandemic.

It may not signal the all-clear, the low VIX reading does underscore the powerful rally U.S. large cap equities have mounted this year. While the rally was largely concentrated in growth tech names and mega cap stocks through May, cyclical sectors have joined the party since the last jobs report dropped in early June.

The VIX is perhaps most famous for its skyward spikes during periods of market turmoil. But sustained, lower readings are a hallmark of bull markets.

Wind: Siemens Energy (think wind) shares plunge 30% as wind turbine worries deepen. Those long heavy blades that "everyone" loved:

Disney: not hitting on all cylinders. Long-serving CFO just quit; now Chief of DEI departed to pursue other interests. I hear BUD is looking for a new DEI marketing director for the midwest, south, and southwest US, as well as the rodeo circuit, in general.

Freight train, freight train, moving so fast: opening today -- I plan to go to the 10:00 p.m. show. Link here. I suspect my movie review will run something like this:

• typical Wes Anderson movie
• incredible cinematography
• a "Hotel" sequel
• weak story line -- but does anyone go to a Wes Anderson movie for the story line? LOL.
• starring ensemble will exceed all expectations
• sound track -- awesome
• my wife will hate it -- even without seeing it -- she will never watch it
  

All those headlines, the US Navy knew .... wrong.

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BUD

Updates

June 25, 2023: a gazillion articles on "lessons the ad world learned" since June 6, 2023. For lessons learned, look at Coke, McDonald's, Apple.

Quick: on the chart below, point to the specific date when things went sideways.

Reposting:

Trending on my twitter feed tonight: link here. This speaks volumes. From The Bismarck Tribune. I knew the "number" would be high but I did not expect 80%! Quick: name the outlier: Walmart, Target, Bud.

Original Post

All that "pride" stuff: I have a comment for this but don't want to troll -- so will simply post the headline:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

No More Wells Coming Off Confidential List Until Next Week -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45022B.   

What we will be talking about in August: heat and drought in England. 

EIA dashboards posted earlier. 

Biggest story today: June 23 -- WTI is now, officially, a component of dated Brent.

Saudi, link here. The price of oil has plummeted ever since Saudi announced unilateral cuts in production some weeks ago to stop free-fall in price of oil. That free-fall seems to have accelerated.

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Back to the Bakken

Dashboards, posted.

WTI: $68.31.

Monday, June 26, 2023: 37 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 400 for the year
None.

Sunday, June 25, 2023: 37 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 400 for the year
None.

Saturday, June 24, 2023: 37 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 400 for the year
None.

Friday, June 23, 2023: 37 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 400 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: sustainable aviation fuel can only fly with more incentives, part 2. 

It seems logical that shifting over time to aviation fuel with a lower carbon footprint would represent the most practical way for the global airline industry to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But for that shift to happen, there needs to be an economic rationale for producing sustainable aviation fuel and, despite a seemingly generous production credit for SAF in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), that rationale is a least a little shaky when compared to renewable diesel (RD) credits available today. In today’s RBN blog, we conclude our two-part series on SAF with an examination of RD and SAF economics (which are remarkably similar), the degree to which existing SAF incentives may fall short of RD, and what it all means for SAF producers and production.

Jet fuel is the planet’s third-most consumed transportation fuel (after diesel and gasoline), and its considerable volume (7 MMb/d) is a meaningful target for carbon emissions reduction. Many airlines have set targets of “net-zero-by-2050” — which may be hard to fathom given the nature of an industry reliant on transportation fuels. If they are to have any degree of success in approaching their goals, lowering Scope 2 emissions through the increased use of SAF will be critical, particularly given the recent skepticism being heaped on the airlines’ other decarbonization strategy — carbon offsets.

Like RD, SAF is the chemical twin of its petroleum-based alternative and therefore can serve as a “drop-in” replacement for it. We also explained the processes most often used to produce RD — and from it, SAF. The most mature technology for producing RD from plant oils or other recycled fats uses hydrogen to remove oxygen (primarily hydrodeoxygenation, or HDO) to produce hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA). This same HEFA process can be used to produce SAF (which contains the same molecules as petroleum-sourced jet fuel) by adding a hydrocracking processing step. SAF molecules are shorter chains of hydrocarbons; therefore, the diesel-sized molecules in RD must be broken (or “cracked”).

Electric Rates By State — North Dakota — Lowest Rate Overall; Lowest Rate Residential; Second Only To New Mexico Industrial —Data For March, 2023,

Locator: 45021ELEC.    

Link here.

Done quickly; needs to be checked.

EIA Dashbords — Posted — June, 2023

Locator: 45020B.    

EIA dashboards:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Production gains in all three plays.