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Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Putin's War -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44749WAR. 
Locator: 44749LEGO. 

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The Lego Page

Link here.



One Permit Approved For Re-Entry -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44748B.

In today's NDIC daily activity report:

One new permit approved for re-entry, #4079 (no typo):

  • Operator: Scout Energy
  • Field: Medora (Billings)
  • Comments: 
    • Scout Energy has a permit to re-complete a Medora Heath-Madison unit well, SWSE 24-139-102, 
      • sited 818 FSL and 1599 FEL;

Note: this is not an atypical Madison well in southwestern North Dakota. For other "monster" Madison wells in southwestern North Dakota, see this post.

From the scout ticket:

  • 4079, 136, Scout Energy Management, Medora Heath-Madison Unit 19, Madison formation, Medora, t6/16; cum 561K 3/23;

Recent production (note: this well was drilled in 1966 -- 57 years ago):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
MADISON3-2023314194284245000
MADISON2-2023283713743948000
MADISON1-2023314294204150000
MADISON12-2022314174194274000
MADISON11-2022294434353998000
MADISON10-2022314884994450000
MADISON9-2022304524744058000
MADISON8-2022314564404683000
MADISON7-2022315385564836000
MADISON6-2022296656314749000
MADISON5-2022111421581083000
MADISON4-2022273623393374000
MADISON3-2022314644704240000
MADISON2-2022284324483655000

Initial production back in 1966:

MADISON1-19683121020806000
MADISON12-19673121130713000
MADISON11-19673019970690000
MADISON10-19673122260713000
MADISON9-19673022010120000
MADISON8-19673123470124000
MADISON7-19673124460124000
MADISON6-19672723770513000
MADISON5-19673127640589000
MADISON4-19672727250513000
MADISON3-19673134870589000
MADISON2-19672835620616000
MADISON1-19672815220616000
MADISON12-1966269090260000
MADISON11-19663011280300000
MADISON10-19663111340310000
MADISON9-19662913010261000
MADISON8-19663115990279000
MADISON7-19663120780279000
MADISON6-19661111370154000

Brand Names -- Top 100 -- Reputations -- Trump Organization At #100; Sixteen Permits Renewed -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44747B.

*********************
Value of Brand Names

Brand names: link here. Interactive chart. One hundred "top" / "well-known" brands.

From the bottom up:

  • #100: Trump -- unchanged from last year
  • #99: FTX
  • #98: Fox
  • #97: Twitter
  • #96: Meta
  • #95: Spirit Airlines
  • #94: TikTok
  • #93: Bitcoin
  • #92: BP
  • #91: Balenclaga
  • #90: Family Dollar

From the top down:

  • #1: Patagonia
  • #2: Costco
  • #3: John Deere
  • #4: Trader Joe's
  • #5: Chick-fil-A
  • #6: Toyota
  • #7: Samsung
  • #8: Amazon
  • #9: USAA
  • #10: AAPL

Of interest:

  • #57: BUD -- unchanged from last year
  • #72: McDonald's -- up 14 from last year
  • #77: Disney -- down 12 from last year
Moved the most y/y, UP:
  • Nike: up 35
  • AMEX: up 29
  • Costco: up 24
  • Chick-fil-A: up 23

Moved the most y/y, DOWN:

  • Tesla: down 50
  • Chrysler: down 22
  • Target: down 21
  • Taco Bell: down 20
  • Netflix: down 20
  • Hobby Lobby: down 19
  • IBM: down 19
  • GE: down 14

 **********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $74.34.

Natural gas: $2.398.

One new permit approved for re-entry, #4079 (no typo):

  • Operator: Scout Energy
  • Field: Medora (Billings)
  • Comments: 
    • Scout Energy has a permit to re-complete a Medora Heath-Madison unit well, SWSE 24-139-102, 
      • sited 818 FSL and 1599 FEL;

Sixteen permits renewed:

  • BR (6):
  • CLR (6):
  • Foundation Energy (4):

Four permits canceled:

  • Slawson: four Diamondback permits, Mountrail County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36479, 86 (no typo), WPX, Skunk Creeek 12-7-8-9HA,
  • 39431, 3,442, Grayson Mill, Margaret 5-8 2H,
  • 39046, 1,465, CLR, Kelling 6-4H,
  • 39047, 812, CLR, Kelling 7-4H1,

Holy Mackerel -- Nvidia -- 1Q23 Earnings

Locator: 44746INV.
Locator: 44746CHIPS.  

Updates  

June 7, 2023:

Later, 9:17 p.m. CT: others think differently — https://twitter.com/JaguarAnalytics/status/1661490357043884033.

Later, 7:40 p.m. CT: link here. Note the margins.

Later, 7:40 p.m. CT: link here.

Later, 6:08 p.m. CT: link here.

Original Post

Shares up almost 10% after-hours; up $35; trading at $338.

Numbers exciting;

  • EPS: $1.09 vs $0.92. Whisper numbers: 97 cents.Revenues: $7.19 billion vs 6.52
  • Gross margins: 70% vs 64 - 68%.
  • Forecasts 2Q23 revenue significantly above estimates.

Later: shares now up about 14%.

All-time highs.

Trending toward being up 15%. 

Others:

  • AMD: up $6.
  • TSM: up $4 after hours.

NVDA:


And, oh, by the way, WTI settles above $74.

Now, 3:32 p.m. CT, NVDA:

  • up almost $50 / share
  • up almost 16%
  • all-time high
  • Jim Cramer needs to do a victory lap (or two or three)

Now, 3:34 p.m. CT, NVDA:

  • up $51 / share; up 17% after hours;

"Starting to lift the other boats."

At 3:36 p.m. CT, NVDA:

  • up $57 / share; up 19%;

Market cap bigger than BRK.

NVDA: flash -- for a moment -- up over 20%.

Meanwhile:

  • DIS: down for the day
  • TSLA: down for the day
  • OXY: down for the day
  • QCOM: down for the day
  • Snowflake: plummets -- this was Warren Buffett's tech pick.

You can lead horses to water ....

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

This is how it will end for the after-market today, NVDA:

  • up 20%; up $60 /share
  • market cap: $902 billion 

Only one question: how did Warren miss this one?  

  • He picked Snowflake (SNOW plummets today) and bought/sold TSM when he got "cold feet" -- "denying" his own adage, "be greedy when others are fearful."
  • or maybe not, was he "fearful when others were greedy?"

After earnings release, The WSJ:

And, if you read the article, one will see how some big challenges slowed Nvidia down this last quarter, most of which will be resolved going forward.

Tina Turner Dead At 83 — May 24, 2023

Locator: 44745ENT.  

How blessed: her home was in Switzerland. 

Dividends, Bud -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44744BUD. 

Dividends: there are a lot of "accidental" high-dividend payers right now. Kohl's is one of them. Just saying.

BUD: link here -- when it's a headline story over at IBD -- you know things are not going well --

From the link:

The market value of Anheuser-Busch InBev, whose fourth bestselling brand is Bud Light, dropped $15.7 billion since April 1, 2023, based on a conversion to U.S. dollars by Investor's Business Daily using data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
That's the day Dylan Mulvaney, a TikTok influencer and transgender woman, pitched the Bud Light brand during the NCAA March Madness tournament.

Meanwhile, the other major publicly traded global beer brands have added $3.2 billion in market value during the same time.

The Bud Light backlash to the promotion was almost instantaneous. Conservative consumers called for a boycott of the beer. Bud Light sales are down more than 23% as of the week ended on May 6, 2023, said Jared Dinges, beverage analyst at JPMorgan Chase in a note to clients Tuesday, citing data from NielsenIQ.

"We believe there is a subset of American consumers who will not drink a Bud Light for the foreseeable future," Dinges said. "We believe a 12% to 13% volume decline on an annualized basis would be a reasonable assumption."

Sophia -- Jiu-Jitsu -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44743SOPHIA.  

Short, practice match.

Sophia's opponent was "saved by the bell." (Turn down the volume.)

Another CLR Well With Halo Effect -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44741HALO.  

Drilled back in 2013: huge jump in production.

The well:

  • 22433, 667, CLR, Rodney 2-29H, Cedar Coulee, t1/13; cum 184K 1/21; off line 2/20; back on line 7/20; off line 4/21; remains off line 9/21; cum 186K 4/21; cum 403K 3/23;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20233188538932950630382299630
BAKKEN2-20232892439232992028661282840
BAKKEN1-20232777627696957618269179660
BAKKEN12-20223086968769988920396200560
BAKKEN11-20223011778117851263426921265160
BAKKEN10-202226426839766948868085240
BAKKEN9-2022386366192032020
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-20223000100
BAKKEN6-20222782858318864019598193580
BAKKEN5-20223116955170751664037262368670
BAKKEN4-20222714914149881518628958286230
BAKKEN3-20222918323179831911032371311630
BAKKEN2-20221420217241541500
BAKKEN1-202230241122453828771389413856810
BAKKEN12-202129247552439635870364543607631
BAKKEN11-20213030035300204094337091366860
BAKKEN10-202131286582845844738303272983696
BAKKEN9-20215008644235402326
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-2021163665012136054110
BAKKEN3-20213185888135014019820
BAKKEN2-20212878787432212508750
BAKKEN1-2021319261134382152711080
BAKKEN12-202031944578527152711080
BAKKEN11-2020309269943831505109010
BAKKEN10-20203110181130405165612370
BAKKEN9-202030103010974351651123127
BAKKEN8-20203113761516560188414650
BAKKEN7-20203113181674342143699932
BAKKEN6-20200000000

 

Another CLR Well With Halo Effect -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44740HALO.  

Drilled back in 2008: huge jump in production.

The well:

  • 17159, 811, CLR, Rodney 1-29H, Cedar Coulee, t8/08; cum 171K 1/21; struggling; off line 4/21; remains off line 9/21; cum 173K 4/21; cum 304K 3/23;

Recent production:

  • a jump from 500 to 35,000 = 70x.
oolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2023291747175622205899551231
BAKKEN2-2023161951197821907938763776
BAKKEN1-2023314493450842622061019894289
BAKKEN12-2022314914490640342087320068349
BAKKEN11-2022306168624755942297521964538
BAKKEN10-202231913391127420262332565557
BAKKEN9-202230126251253091713164530833352
BAKKEN8-202261479145911153276313040
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-202200100000
BAKKEN5-202261770176011613220309350
BAKKEN4-202200180000
BAKKEN3-2022133901397232216538644448
BAKKEN2-2022261885818877169852852528308113
BAKKEN1-2022312497725032235803453733829586
BAKKEN12-2021313504235033432774538744267988
BAKKEN11-2021743944240849348334517267
BAKKEN10-202122852850000
BAKKEN9-202130010685132501325
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-202100260000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-2021002310000
BAKKEN4-202122473605707454620
BAKKEN3-20213087079727212608590
BAKKEN2-20212835128720418420
BAKKEN1-202131525862576732660
BAKKEN12-2020314380456452260

Huge Draw -- EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44739WTI.  

WTI: flirting with $74 today. [Later: WTI just topped $74. Pre-market, trading at $74.18.]

API: huge draw yesterday. 

EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.

  • US crude oil in commercial storage dropped by a whopping 12.5 million bbls; at 455.2 million bbls in commercial storage, this is 3% below the five-year average;
  • US imports averaged 5.9 million bopd; decreased by 1.010 million bopd; imports are averaging 3.9% less than same four-week period last year;
  • US refiners operating at 91.7% of their operating capacity
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased slightly and are now 18% below the five-year average
  • jet fuel supplied was up 3.7%

WTI, after report released: up 1.73%; up $1.26; trading at $74.17; had trended to nearly $75, earlier.

Gasoline demand, link demand:


A Little Williston History -- Non-Bakken -- Non-Oil -- The Book Page -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44737ND.  

Updates

May 24, 2023: books on the 164th --


Original Post 

A historical note sent to family overnight:

I don't know if you all remember the Old Armory in Williston, North Dakota. Prior to high school this was where I first played basketball. Prior to that, the Old Armory was where the boys' summer baseball leagues held their award ceremonies. I never knew the history of the Old Armory. [It was called the "Old" Armory after a "new" Armory was built on south Main, near the Amtrak station.]

This is really quite a story and some of you may already know the story; I did not.

I assume you all remember the names of some of the islands in the South Pacific that became "famous" during WWII (Guadalcanal, Iwo Jima, Midway).

Immediately after Pearl Harbor, the US Army quickly established a new division to occupy the islands off the northeast coast of Australia, the Solomon Islands, afraid the next Japanese target was Australia, somewhat protected by the south Pacific Islands.

The 1st Marine Division, under heavy fire, successfully "took" the largest Solomon Island. The largest Solomon Island province is called Guadalcanal and that is the Guadalcanal / the Solomon Island the US marines took.

The US Marines were hit incredibly hard and were reinforced and replaced by the 164th Regiment.

This is where it gets interesting. The 164th Regiment (referred to as the North Dakota National Guard) was, in fact, "established" in Williston, ND. It would have been established in the Old Armory in Williston. It was the Williston regiment (the North Dakota army national guard, the 164th regiment) that fought alongside and then relieved the US marines on Guadalcanal. Following closely were two more national guard units, one from Massachusetts, and one from Illinois.

Below is a passage rom wiki. It's a long passage but well worth reading.

Bruce

FROM WIKI:

The 164th Infantry, a unit of the North Dakota National Guard, entered federal service 10 February 1941 at Williston, ND.

Commanded by Colonel Earle Sarles, the 164th transited the South Pacific in March 1942.

The regiment spent nearly five months in combat training. In September, Colonel Sarles, a National Guard officer, was replaced as commander of the regiment by Colonel Bryant E. Moore, a West Point graduate. 

Arriving at Guadalcanal on 13 October 1942 as emergency reinforcement for the 1st Marine Division, the Regiment was the first U.S. Army unit to engage in offensive action during World War II in the Battle of Guadalcanal.

Between 24 and 27 October, elements of the Williston regiment withstood repeated assaults from Japanese battalions and inflicted some two thousand enemy casualties. The 1st Marine Division commander, Major General Alexander Vandegrift, was so impressed by the soldiers' stand that he issued a unit commendation to the regiment for having demonstrated "an overwhelming superiority over the enemy." In addition, the Marines took the unusual step of awarding the commander of the Williston regiment (3rd Battalion, 164th,) with the Navy Cross for his role in these battles

Until the Division commander, Major General Alexander M. Patch, and other units of the division arrived, the Williston regiment, the164th, fought alongside the Marines in a series of encounters with Japanese units in the Point Cruz area, where they successfully dislodged enemy troops from two hilltop strongpoints. The action earned them the nickname "The 164th Marines." Members of the 164th were also known as "jungle fighters" within the U.S. media because of the terrain on which they fought.

Later, the 164th participated in extensive jungle patrols as well as organized offensive sweeps of the island to eliminate remaining Japanese resistance. This experience gained the regiment valuable combat experience in jungle travel and navigation, ambush and counter-ambush, and small-unit tactics using small arms and light support weapons. After the Battle of Guadalcanal, the regiment returned to Fiji with the rest of the Division to refit and replenish losses. At this point, many veteran officers and men of the 164th volunteered to join the 5307th Composite Unit, better known as Merrill's Marauders, for service in Burma.

Some months ago I started reading Norman Mailer's The Naked and the Dead, but never got far into it due to other distractions. Time to go back and read it.

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44736B. 

Lordstown (RIDE)
: reverse stock split, 1:15, coming -- necessary to meet NASDAQ's listing requirements. For the archives:

  • ticker, RIDE, yesterday, closed at 28 cents
  • it appears the pricing has already reflected the reverse split
    • yesterday: down $3.98 (93.33%)
    • pre-market today trading at $4.05; up $3.77 (up 1,325.55%)
    • 15 shares yesterday x 28 cents, during the day = $4.20
    • today, one share, pre-market = $4.05

GS: predicts an oil price rally

Cash: link here.

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $73.95.

Natural gas: $2.331.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Thursday, May 25, 2023: 43 for the month; 95 for the quarter, 350 for the year
39239, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIIU 5-31H1,
39170, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HCL,

Wednesday, May 24, 2023: 41 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 348 for the year
39238, conf, CLR, Skachenko FUI 4-31HSL,
38969, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-4,
38943, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-32-29H,
37848, conf, Slawson, Genesis 3-13H,

RBN Energy: North American crude oil price differentials explain and foretell market shifts.

There is no debate about it: The CME/NYMEX domestic sweet (DSW) crude oil futures prompt-month contract at Cushing, OK, is the most closely followed benchmark in U.S. energy markets. It’s the price quoted in nightly news reports and general media publications. And now, with U.S. exports of WTI deliverable on the Brent contract, domestic sweet at Cushing is arguably setting the price for crudes around the world. But the fact is, most crudes traded in physical markets across North America are not priced at the DSW-at-Cushing benchmark but instead at a differential to Cushing — higher or lower on any given day based on each crude’s unique quality, location, and supply/demand characteristics. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how the behavior of differentials from the Cushing benchmark can go a long way to explain what is happening with crude oil production, transportation volumes, storage and, of course, exports.

There are many crudes traded across North America, each with its own density (measured in API degrees), sulfur content (measured in percentages), total acid number (TAN), and other qualities. The value of all these crudes, with names like Midland Sweet (MIDSWT), Magellan East Houston (MEH), Mars, Bakken, West Texas Light (WTL), and Western Canadian Select (WCS) are typically quoted as differentials to the price of DSW deliverable on the NYMEX Cushing contract.