The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 05/24/23

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Putin's War -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44749WAR.
Locator: 44749LEGO.

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The Lego Page

Link here.

One Permit Approved For Re-Entry -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44748B.

In today's NDIC daily activity report:

One new permit approved for re-entry, #4079 (no typo):

Operator: Scout Energy
Field: Medora (Billings)
Comments:

Scout Energy has a permit to re-complete a Medora Heath-Madison unit well, SWSE 24-139-102,

sited 818 FSL and 1599 FEL;

Note: this is not an atypical Madison well in southwestern North Dakota. For other "monster" Madison wells in southwestern North Dakota, see this post.

From the scout ticket:

4079, 136, Scout Energy Management, Medora Heath-Madison Unit 19, Madison formation, Medora, t6/16; cum 561K 3/23;

Recent production (note: this well was drilled in 1966 -- 57 years ago):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water
MADISON	3-2023	31	419	428	4245
MADISON	2-2023	28	371	374	3948
MADISON	1-2023	31	429	420	4150
MADISON	12-2022	31	417	419	4274
MADISON	11-2022	29	443	435	3998
MADISON	10-2022	31	488	499	4450
MADISON	9-2022	30	452	474	4058
MADISON	8-2022	31	456	440	4683
MADISON	7-2022	31	538	556	4836
MADISON	6-2022	29	665	631	4749
MADISON	5-2022	11	142	158	1083
MADISON	4-2022	27	362	339	3374
MADISON	3-2022	31	464	470	4240
MADISON	2-2022	28	432	448	3655

Initial production back in 1966:

MADISON	1-1968	31	2102	806
MADISON	12-1967	31	2113	713
MADISON	11-1967	30	1997	690
MADISON	10-1967	31	2226	713
MADISON	9-1967	30	2201	120
MADISON	8-1967	31	2347	124
MADISON	7-1967	31	2446	124
MADISON	6-1967	27	2377	513
MADISON	5-1967	31	2764	589
MADISON	4-1967	27	2725	513
MADISON	3-1967	31	3487	589
MADISON	2-1967	28	3562	616
MADISON	1-1967	28	1522	616
MADISON	12-1966	26	909	260
MADISON	11-1966	30	1128	300
MADISON	10-1966	31	1134	310
MADISON	9-1966	29	1301	261
MADISON	8-1966	31	1599	279
MADISON	7-1966	31	2078	279
MADISON	6-1966	11	1137	154

Brand Names -- Top 100 -- Reputations -- Trump Organization At #100; Sixteen Permits Renewed -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44747B.

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Value of Brand Names

Brand names: link here. Interactive chart. One hundred "top" / "well-known" brands.

From the bottom up:

#100: Trump -- unchanged from last year
#99: FTX
#98: Fox
#97: Twitter
#96: Meta
#95: Spirit Airlines
#94: TikTok
#93: Bitcoin
#92: BP
#91: Balenclaga
#90: Family Dollar

From the top down:

#1: Patagonia
#2: Costco
#3: John Deere
#4: Trader Joe's
#5: Chick-fil-A
#6: Toyota
#7: Samsung
#8: Amazon
#9: USAA
#10: AAPL

Of interest:

#57: BUD -- unchanged from last year
#72: McDonald's -- up 14 from last year
#77: Disney -- down 12 from last year

Moved the most y/y, UP:

Nike: up 35
AMEX: up 29
Costco: up 24
Chick-fil-A: up 23

Moved the most y/y, DOWN:

Tesla: down 50
Chrysler: down 22
Target: down 21
Taco Bell: down 20
Netflix: down 20
Hobby Lobby: down 19
IBM: down 19
GE: down 14

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $74.34.

Natural gas: $2.398.

One new permit approved for re-entry, #4079 (no typo):

Operator: Scout Energy
Field: Medora (Billings)
Comments:

Scout Energy has a permit to re-complete a Medora Heath-Madison unit well, SWSE 24-139-102,

sited 818 FSL and 1599 FEL;

Sixteen permits renewed:

BR (6):
CLR (6):
Foundation Energy (4):

Four permits canceled:

Slawson: four Diamondback permits, Mountrail County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

36479, 86 (no typo), WPX, Skunk Creeek 12-7-8-9HA,
39431, 3,442, Grayson Mill, Margaret 5-8 2H,
39046, 1,465, CLR, Kelling 6-4H,
39047, 812, CLR, Kelling 7-4H1,

Holy Mackerel -- Nvidia -- 1Q23 Earnings

Locator: 44746INV.
Locator: 44746CHIPS.

Updates

June 7, 2023:

Later, 9:17 p.m. CT: others think differently — https://twitter.com/JaguarAnalytics/status/1661490357043884033.

Later, 7:40 p.m. CT: link here. Note the margins.

Later, 7:40 p.m. CT: link here.

Later, 6:08 p.m. CT: link here.

Original Post

Shares up almost 10% after-hours; up $35; trading at $338.

Numbers exciting;

EPS: $1.09 vs $0.92. Whisper numbers: 97 cents.Revenues: $7.19 billion vs 6.52
Gross margins: 70% vs 64 - 68%.
Forecasts 2Q23 revenue significantly above estimates.

Later: shares now up about 14%.

All-time highs.

Trending toward being up 15%.

Others:

AMD: up $6.
TSM: up $4 after hours.

NVDA:

And, oh, by the way, WTI settles above $74.

Now, 3:32 p.m. CT, NVDA:

up almost $50 / share
up almost 16%
all-time high
Jim Cramer needs to do a victory lap (or two or three)

Now, 3:34 p.m. CT, NVDA:

up $51 / share; up 17% after hours;

"Starting to lift the other boats."

At 3:36 p.m. CT, NVDA:

up $57 / share; up 19%;

Market cap bigger than BRK.

NVDA: flash -- for a moment -- up over 20%.

Meanwhile:

DIS: down for the day
TSLA: down for the day
OXY: down for the day
QCOM: down for the day
Snowflake: plummets -- this was Warren Buffett's tech pick.

You can lead horses to water ....

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

This is how it will end for the after-market today, NVDA:

up 20%; up $60 /share
market cap: $902 billion

Only one question: how did Warren miss this one?

He picked Snowflake (SNOW plummets today) and bought/sold TSM when he got "cold feet" -- "denying" his own adage, "be greedy when others are fearful."
or maybe not, was he "fearful when others were greedy?"

After earnings release, The WSJ:

And, if you read the article, one will see how some big challenges slowed Nvidia down this last quarter, most of which will be resolved going forward.

Tina Turner Dead At 83 — May 24, 2023

Locator: 44745ENT.

How blessed: her home was in Switzerland.

Dividends, Bud -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44744BUD.

Dividends: there are a lot of "accidental" high-dividend payers right now. Kohl's is one of them. Just saying.

BUD: link here -- when it's a headline story over at IBD -- you know things are not going well --

From the link:

The market value of Anheuser-Busch InBev, whose fourth bestselling brand is Bud Light, dropped $15.7 billion since April 1, 2023, based on a conversion to U.S. dollars by Investor's Business Daily using data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

That's the day Dylan Mulvaney, a TikTok influencer and transgender woman, pitched the Bud Light brand during the NCAA March Madness tournament.

Meanwhile, the other major publicly traded global beer brands have added $3.2 billion in market value during the same time.

The Bud Light backlash to the promotion was almost instantaneous. Conservative consumers called for a boycott of the beer. Bud Light sales are down more than 23% as of the week ended on May 6, 2023, said Jared Dinges, beverage analyst at JPMorgan Chase in a note to clients Tuesday, citing data from NielsenIQ.

"We believe there is a subset of American consumers who will not drink a Bud Light for the foreseeable future," Dinges said. "We believe a 12% to 13% volume decline on an annualized basis would be a reasonable assumption."

Sophia -- Jiu-Jitsu -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44743SOPHIA.

Short, practice match.

Sophia's opponent was "saved by the bell." (Turn down the volume.)

Unemployment Rate By Metropolitan Center -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44742JOBS.

Link here.

Another CLR Well With Halo Effect -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44741HALO.

Drilled back in 2013: huge jump in production.

The well:

22433, 667, CLR, Rodney 2-29H, Cedar Coulee, t1/13; cum 184K 1/21; off line 2/20; back on line 7/20; off line 4/21; remains off line 9/21; cum 186K 4/21; cum 403K 3/23;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	8853	8932	9506	30382	29963	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	9243	9232	9920	28661	28284	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	27	7762	7696	9576	18269	17966	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	8696	8769	9889	20396	20056	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	11778	11785	12634	26921	26516	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	26	4268	3976	6948	8680	8524	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	3	86	366	19	203	202	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	3	0	0	0	1	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	27	8285	8318	8640	19598	19358	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	16955	17075	16640	37262	36867	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	27	14914	14988	15186	28958	28623	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	29	18323	17983	19110	32371	31163	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	14	202	172	4	154	150	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	30	24112	24538	28771	38941	38568	10
BAKKEN	12-2021	29	24755	24396	35870	36454	36076	31
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	30035	30020	40943	37091	36686	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	28658	28458	44738	30327	29836	96
BAKKEN	9-2021	5	0	0	8644	2354	0	2326
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	16	366	501	213	605	411	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	858	881	350	1401	982	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	787	874	322	1250	875	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	926	1134	382	1527	1108	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	944	578	527	1527	1108	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	926	994	383	1505	1090	10
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	1018	1130	405	1656	1237	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	1030	1097	435	1651	1231	27
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	1376	1516	560	1884	1465	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	1318	1674	342	1436	999	32
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Another CLR Well With Halo Effect -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44740HALO.

Drilled back in 2008: huge jump in production.

The well:

17159, 811, CLR, Rodney 1-29H, Cedar Coulee, t8/08; cum 171K 1/21; struggling; off line 4/21; remains off line 9/21; cum 173K 4/21; cum 304K 3/23;

Recent production:

a jump from 500 to 35,000 = 70x.

ool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2023	29	1747	1756	2220	5899	5512	31
BAKKEN	2-2023	16	1951	1978	2190	7938	7637	76
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	4493	4508	4262	20610	19894	289
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	4914	4906	4034	20873	20068	349
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	6168	6247	5594	22975	21964	538
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	9133	9112	7420	26233	25655	57
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	12625	12530	9171	31645	30833	352
BAKKEN	8-2022	6	1479	1459	1115	3276	3130	40
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	6	1770	1760	1161	3220	3093	50
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	18	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	13	3901	3972	3221	6538	6444	48
BAKKEN	2-2022	26	18858	18877	16985	28525	28308	113
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	24977	25032	23580	34537	33829	586
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	35042	35033	43277	45387	44267	988
BAKKEN	11-2021	7	4394	4240	8493	4833	4517	267
BAKKEN	10-2021	2	285	285	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	3	0	0	10685	1325	0	1325
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	26	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	231	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	22	473	605	70	745	462	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	30	870	797	272	1260	859	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	351	287	20	418	42	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	525	862	57	673	266	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	438	0	45	645	226	0

Huge Draw -- EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44739WTI.

WTI: flirting with $74 today. [Later: WTI just topped $74. Pre-market, trading at $74.18.]

API: huge draw yesterday.

EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.

US crude oil in commercial storage dropped by a whopping 12.5 million bbls; at 455.2 million bbls in commercial storage, this is 3% below the five-year average;
US imports averaged 5.9 million bopd; decreased by 1.010 million bopd; imports are averaging 3.9% less than same four-week period last year;
US refiners operating at 91.7% of their operating capacity
distillate fuel inventories decreased slightly and are now 18% below the five-year average
jet fuel supplied was up 3.7%

WTI, after report released: up 1.73%; up $1.26; trading at $74.17; had trended to nearly $75, earlier.

Gasoline demand, link demand:

That Renewable Energy Story In Norway? Starting To Fade -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44738NOR.

A Little Williston History -- Non-Bakken -- Non-Oil -- The Book Page -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44737ND.

Updates

May 24, 2023: books on the 164th --

link here; link here.

Original Post

A historical note sent to family overnight:

I don't know if you all remember the Old Armory in Williston, North Dakota. Prior to high school this was where I first played basketball. Prior to that, the Old Armory was where the boys' summer baseball leagues held their award ceremonies. I never knew the history of the Old Armory. [It was called the "Old" Armory after a "new" Armory was built on south Main, near the Amtrak station.]

This is really quite a story and some of you may already know the story; I did not.

I assume you all remember the names of some of the islands in the South Pacific that became "famous" during WWII (Guadalcanal, Iwo Jima, Midway).

Immediately after Pearl Harbor, the US Army quickly established a new division to occupy the islands off the northeast coast of Australia, the Solomon Islands, afraid the next Japanese target was Australia, somewhat protected by the south Pacific Islands.

The 1st Marine Division, under heavy fire, successfully "took" the largest Solomon Island. The largest Solomon Island province is called Guadalcanal and that is the Guadalcanal / the Solomon Island the US marines took.

The US Marines were hit incredibly hard and were reinforced and replaced by the 164th Regiment.

This is where it gets interesting. The 164th Regiment (referred to as the North Dakota National Guard) was, in fact, "established" in Williston, ND. It would have been established in the Old Armory in Williston. It was the Williston regiment (the North Dakota army national guard, the 164th regiment) that fought alongside and then relieved the US marines on Guadalcanal. Following closely were two more national guard units, one from Massachusetts, and one from Illinois.

Below is a passage rom wiki. It's a long passage but well worth reading.

Bruce

FROM WIKI:
The 164th Infantry, a unit of the North Dakota National Guard, entered federal service 10 February 1941 at Williston, ND.
Commanded by Colonel Earle Sarles, the 164th transited the South Pacific in March 1942.

The regiment spent nearly five months in combat training. In September, Colonel Sarles, a National Guard officer, was replaced as commander of the regiment by Colonel Bryant E. Moore, a West Point graduate.
Arriving at Guadalcanal on 13 October 1942 as emergency reinforcement for the 1st Marine Division, the Regiment was the first U.S. Army unit to engage in offensive action during World War II in the Battle of Guadalcanal.
Between 24 and 27 October, elements of the Williston regiment withstood repeated assaults from Japanese battalions and inflicted some two thousand enemy casualties. The 1st Marine Division commander, Major General Alexander Vandegrift, was so impressed by the soldiers' stand that he issued a unit commendation to the regiment for having demonstrated "an overwhelming superiority over the enemy." In addition, the Marines took the unusual step of awarding the commander of the Williston regiment (3rd Battalion, 164th,) with the Navy Cross for his role in these battles

Until the Division commander, Major General Alexander M. Patch, and other units of the division arrived, the Williston regiment, the164th, fought alongside the Marines in a series of encounters with Japanese units in the Point Cruz area, where they successfully dislodged enemy troops from two hilltop strongpoints. The action earned them the nickname "The 164th Marines." Members of the 164th were also known as "jungle fighters" within the U.S. media because of the terrain on which they fought.

Later, the 164th participated in extensive jungle patrols as well as organized offensive sweeps of the island to eliminate remaining Japanese resistance. This experience gained the regiment valuable combat experience in jungle travel and navigation, ambush and counter-ambush, and small-unit tactics using small arms and light support weapons. After the Battle of Guadalcanal, the regiment returned to Fiji with the rest of the Division to refit and replenish losses. At this point, many veteran officers and men of the 164th volunteered to join the 5307th Composite Unit, better known as Merrill's Marauders, for service in Burma.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/164th_Regiment_(United_States).

Some months ago I started reading Norman Mailer's The Naked and the Dead, but never got far into it due to other distractions. Time to go back and read it.

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- May 24, 2023

Locator: 44736B.

Lordstown (RIDE): reverse stock split, 1:15, coming -- necessary to meet NASDAQ's listing requirements. For the archives:

ticker, RIDE, yesterday, closed at 28 cents
it appears the pricing has already reflected the reverse split

yesterday: down $3.98 (93.33%)
pre-market today trading at $4.05; up $3.77 (up 1,325.55%)
15 shares yesterday x 28 cents, during the day = $4.20
today, one share, pre-market = $4.05

GS: predicts an oil price rally.

Cash: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $73.95.

Natural gas: $2.331.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Thursday, May 25, 2023: 43 for the month; 95 for the quarter, 350 for the year
39239, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIIU 5-31H1,
39170, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HCL,

Wednesday, May 24, 2023: 41 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 348 for the year
39238, conf, CLR, Skachenko FUI 4-31HSL,
38969, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-4,
38943, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-32-29H,
37848, conf, Slawson, Genesis 3-13H,

RBN Energy: North American crude oil price differentials explain and foretell market shifts.

There is no debate about it: The CME/NYMEX domestic sweet (DSW) crude oil futures prompt-month contract at Cushing, OK, is the most closely followed benchmark in U.S. energy markets. It’s the price quoted in nightly news reports and general media publications. And now, with U.S. exports of WTI deliverable on the Brent contract, domestic sweet at Cushing is arguably setting the price for crudes around the world. But the fact is, most crudes traded in physical markets across North America are not priced at the DSW-at-Cushing benchmark but instead at a differential to Cushing — higher or lower on any given day based on each crude’s unique quality, location, and supply/demand characteristics. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how the behavior of differentials from the Cushing benchmark can go a long way to explain what is happening with crude oil production, transportation volumes, storage and, of course, exports.
There are many crudes traded across North America, each with its own density (measured in API degrees), sulfur content (measured in percentages), total acid number (TAN), and other qualities. The value of all these crudes, with names like Midland Sweet (MIDSWT), Magellan East Houston (MEH), Mars, Bakken, West Texas Light (WTL), and Western Canadian Select (WCS) are typically quoted as differentials to the price of DSW deliverable on the NYMEX Cushing contract.

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Wednesday, May 24, 2023