Thursday: Apple, JP Morgan, Nvidia, United Healthcare, Walmart -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44565TCM. 

Updates

May 6, 2023: I didn't pay a whole of attention to this list when I posted this, but now that I have some time, this is my list -- the five companies in 2040 (ten years longer than the original post). 

I need 1) retail (on-line and brick/mortar) for daily needs; 2) banking and investing; 3) transportation and energy; 4) mobile communication; and, 5) tech which supports 1 - 4. 

• Amazon (retail on-line, streaming, cloud, discount brokerage)
  
• Walmart (retail brick and mortar, banking)
• CVX (energy)
• Apple (cellular, banking, discount brokerage)
• TSM (tech)

Original Post 

Wow, wow, wow -- TCM is featuring Warner Bros movies this month. 

And Warner Bros makes me think of Warner Bros Discovery and that leads me to thinking about investing opportunities.

Recessions? Stagflation? Banking crisis? LOL. 

John Huston. Wiki. Wow.

Wine tastings should never be done without pairings with Kate Weiser chocolate. Another LOL.

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Pretty Blue Eyes

So much packed into this two-minute-twelve-second music video. So much. 

This was my life. 1968. And, yes, there was a "pretty blue eyes" in my life.

An electrical storm to the northwest of us; may or may not pass over us later tonight. But an incredibly beautiful evening on the balcony.

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For The Archives

Link here.

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The Experts

Comment -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44564W. 

Random comment:

• today, another headline -- the decrease in US diesel demand signals recession -- yeah, that's the headline.
• exactly how is that headline / interpretation / analysis / signal helpful for me as an investor?
• for the past ten years there have been predictions of stagflation, recessions, stock market collapse, and more recessions, more stagflation, and another stock market collapse, and the headlines continue; I can't say that any of those headlines ever helped me in my investing;
• interestingly I do not recall one headline in the past ten years that predicted that the Silicon Valley Bank would collapse; then the First Republic Bank would collapse; and, then the banks would continue to fall like dominoes, until we had a national banking crisis -- but I digress;
• now, we get headlines that this will be one of the worst hurricane seasons on record; again, how does this "headline" help me with my investing strategy; should I sell all my BRK shares since BRK is a big insurer? Should I sell all my XOM and COP and PSX shares knowing that hurricanes wipe out coastal refineries; should I buy shares of recreational companies that sell kayaks and canoes; honestly, now that I know this summer will be the worse hurricane season on record, I have no idea what I should do. I don't even know what "defensive" stocks would be appropriate in that scenario.
• all the predictions that China would collapse; that China would invade Taiwan; that the Chinese supply chain would cripple Apple; that Qualcom's awful earnings report was a harbinger to come for Apple, I suppose I should have sold all my Apple yesterday; today Apple reported one of its best January - March quarters ever; and announced a $90-billion share buyback and dividend program; and, then raised its dividend 4% which is almost insane considering Apple likes paying dividends as much as Warren Buffett likes paying dividends.
• AAPL surged after hours
• even the headline that Lordstown is on the verge of bankruptcy didn't help me; I don't invest in EVs
• anyway, enough of this, but before I go, a quick look at Drudge to see the next depressing headline:

• yeah, there it is. I can't make this stuff up. Should I sell all my shares in  B** which I've had for forty years and those shares now hava a cost basis so low, it can no longer be calculated but it's paying a 5% dividend?

Another comment:

• even as we seem to be spiraling into a banking crisis of mega-proportions, the Fed sees "no problem" and continues raising "rates."
• I don't know about you, but I'm almost getting the feeling that this has become personal; a personal "fight" between JPow (Fed) and Janet Yellen (Treasury);
• I know nothing about economic politics and macroeconomics but this certainly has a "strange" feeling to it, what's going on in Washington right now.
• about the time the Fed started raising rates (and I was still watching CNBC), I got the feeling that JPow was personally angry about something -- I think I may have blogged that but I can't remember. But that feeling has returned; that JPow seems angry. 

I'm out in the middle of a soccer field in a humongous sports complex, now under dark, threatening clouds, and the temperature has dropped twenty degrees (or so it seems), and my laptop is down to 10% battery. I'm calling it a day. Until later this evening.

Liberty Resources With Four New Permits; NDIC Renews Twenty Permits -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44563B. 

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

It feels like a Friday night.

I will spend the night watching TCM. I will start with "Key Largo" with Humphrey Bogart. 

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Back to the Bakken

Locator: 44563B.  

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: $68.75.

Natural gas: $2.091.

Four new permits, #39877- #39880, inclusive:

• Operator: Liberty Resources
• Field: Temple (Williams)
• Comments: 
• Liberty Resources has permits for two Overdorf W wells and two Temple W wells;
• to be sited between 283 FNL and 285 FNL and between 2297 FWL and 2402 FWL;

Twenty permits were renewed:

• Whiting (10): four Roggenbuck wells in Sanish oil field; two Helling permits in Pronghorn oil field; a Wold permit in Banks oil field; a Monson permit in Glass Bluff; an Armas permit in Sanish oil field.
• BR (5): an Ole permit in Haystack Butte; two Sandie permits and two Shafer permits all in Elidah oil field.
• Foundation Energy (4): three Mosser Federal permits in Elkhorn Ranch, Billings County; a fourth permit in Roosevelt oil field;
• Hess: an AN-Lone Tree permit in Antelope oil field.

Three permits canceled:

• Foundation Energy (3): three Beaver Creek permits in Billings County;

Tech -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44562T. 

AMD: surging today. Huge story. Buffett's "voting machine" vs "weighing machine." Link here.

SWKS:

RIDE: recent talk of bankruptcy -- drops another 7% today -- perhaps the worst of EVs.

TAP vs BUD: flat vs up 3%.

JNJ Spin-Off -- May 4, 2034

Locator: 44561I.  

Biggest IPO of the year? Needs to be fact-checked.

Spin-off priced at $22, at end of first day closes at $26.

Ticker for Kenvue: KVUE.

Earnings After Hours -- Thursday -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44560AAPL. 

NOG

EOG

USUAL DISCLAIMER APPLIES

AAPL

Shares after hours: up about 0.5%. Now, up about 2%. 

Beat on top and bottom.

• EPS: $1.52 vs $1.43 -- huge
• $94.84 billion vs $92.96 billion
• margins: 44.3% vs 44.1% -- the second biggest story
• iPhone: $51.33 billion vs $48.84 billion -- this is the big story. Ya gotta remember, "every" analyst suggested Apple might miss on iPhones
• for analysts: it's not "AAPL" - it's iFON
• services: doesn't beat expectations, but close, and about 5% higher than last year -- another big story
• $90 billion in dividends and share buybacks

Link here.

At MacRumors: link here.

At WSJ:

Apple reported its second straight quarter of declining sales as demand has waned for some of its products after reaching record levels during the pandemic.

The tech giant’s revenue for the three months ended April 1 was $94.8 billion, down 3% from the year-earlier period. Net income dropped 3% year-over-year to $24.2 billion. Apple exceeded analyst expectations, according to FactSet, of $92.9 billion in sales and $22.6 billion in net income.

This is the third time in a decade that the iPhone maker has posted back-to-back quarters of falling revenue. The Cupertino, Calif.-based company was hoping to exit from a difficult holiday season hampered by supply-chain disruptions and flagging consumer interest in its Mac computers and wearable devices.

IPhone sales grew about 1.5% to $51.3 billion, well ahead of the $48.7 billion analysts were expecting. Sales for Apple’s flagship product have surged as consumer demand continues to gravitate toward the company’s most-expensive phone, the iPhone 14 Pro Max, accounting for 24% of all iPhone sales, according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. The iPhone 14 Pro followed closely behind, with 22% of all sales for the quarter, the research firm found.

Premium iPhone Pro sales are crucial to Apple’s strategy in recent years of driving revenue growth while shipment growth has slowed. Demand for Pro models has helped elevate the average selling price of the iPhone to $988 in the January-through-March quarter from $802 in the same 2019 quarter, according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners.

COMMENTS

Comments: I was watching CNBC live as the numbers were being reported. CNBC anchors / analysts were cool, calm, and collected -- either flat or perhaps a bit negative.

For me, the numbers crushed expectations but I am very, very biased.

Most important number: margins.

And that's where EVs will be crushed. 

AAPL stock has been up 28% for this year to date.

The Downfall Of Donald Trump -- May 4, 2023

 Locator: 44560TRUMP. 

June 8, 2023: indicted; several counts; summoned to appear in court.

The downfall of Donald Trump: added as a theme for 2022. Will be tracked here, Locator: 44560TRUMP. 

At least four huge stories today (May 4, 2023) from all sectors that were not good news for the former president.

May 7, 2023: at least eight Trump electors have accepted immunity in Georgia investigation. At The Washington Post. Again, TWP paywalls "everything," but not this story.

May 4, 2023:

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The Downfall Of Trump

By the way, I never did get back to the four stories over at Drudge this week that -- at some point -- reach a tipping point:

• Trump says he won't debate. Biden supporters don't want Biden to debate either. Advantage: Biden.
• Trump won't offer defense in rape trial. Americans don't understand financial fraud, but they understand rape. But say what? Won't offer a defense in a rape trial?
• Trump libel suit against NYT -- a huge loss; Trump will pay all legal fees.
• Leader of "Trump's Army" found guilty of sedition. All the DEMS need is one e-mail, and Trump loved to text.
  

Agree 1000% these are all political hit pieces and I can even be accused of trolling (nolo contendere) but those are the headlines and at some point ...

This doesn't mean Trump won't get the GOP nomination but ... these stories don't play well in my household ...

... one word: Bill.

How bad could the rape story be. One example: the NYT puts "every" story behind a paywall. Not this one.

If You Have Time For Only One Energy Story Today -- May 4, 2023

 Locator: 44559WIND.

From The Daily Caller, no less.

From the linked article:

Offshore wind turbines — a key component of President Joe Biden’s push for more renewable energy — are facing significant hurdles in both maintenance and construction as the industry continues to grow their size, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

These massive turbines, the next generation of which are expected to be more than 900 feet tall and generate 15 megawatts (MW) of electricity — enough to power a small town — suffer from a far greater rate of component failure than their smaller counterparts, the WSJ reported, citing data from renewable energy insurer GCube. While smaller turbines on the scale of 4 to 8 megawatts tend to have failures after five years in service, larger turbines typically see failures after just one year.

As reported earlier, "very, very difficult to turn a profit" with renewable energy.

OPEC+ In A Panic -- May 4, 2023

 Locator: 44558OPEC.

 Link here. 

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Russia Oil & Gas

Link here. 

Great thread at the link from someone who follows this pretty closely, and is more bullish on oil than even me. LOL.

California EVs -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44557EVS.  

Link here.

IEP Slumps -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44556BANKS. 

Link here.

INTC Surges Three Percent Today -- May The Fourth Be With You -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44555CHIPS. 

Link here.

Or go direct.

That story ... a bit premature? Is that the problem with today's "investors, journalists." Attention span that of Dory?

INTC up 3% today on a day the Dow fell 300 points.

Add A Fourth Regional Bank — US Banking Crisis To Be Tracked Here -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44560BANKS. 

US banking crisis: added as a theme for 2022. Will be tracked here.

Pondering. See link below.

Dow falls 300 points on report of likely third California bank failure. [Add a fourth regional bank: Phoenix-based. #13 on Forbe’s list of America’s Best Banks.]

[Read the political and financial history of California, 2000 - 2010. Link here: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2023/05/pondering-may-3-2023.html.]

Pondering.

With this "run on banks," where will Gens X, Y, and Z put their money? In AppleSavings and earn 4.5%?

This "Apple" money is actually held in GS which has regulatory reserve requirements, but beyond that, how much doe Apple get to tap?

Pondering.

Chord Energy -- 4Q23 And Full Year

Locator: 44540I. 

NOTE: this is old information. Dated February 22, 2023.

Link here.

SRE -- Another Huge Beat -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44539I.

Anticipate no change in dividend:

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TRGP

Link here.

COP: Huge Beat -- Anticipating A Change In The Quarterly Dividend -- 1Q23

Locator: 44538I. 

Dividend: 51 cents plus 60 cents, pays June 1 and June 27.

COP:

Earnings, briefly:

Re-posting From April 12, 2023, link here:

COP: link here.

• ConocoPhillips unveiled a 10-year plan Wednesday, April 12, 2023, that envisions more than $115B of free cash flow available for distributions and capital spending averaging ~$10B annually, resulting in a 4%-5% production compound annual growth rate at an average reinvestment rate of ~50%. 
• The plan foresees durable cash flow growth with projected cash from operations and FCF compounded annual growth rate of ~6% and 11%, respectively, and return on capital employed increasing at least one percentage point annually. 
• Conoco said it will seek a resource base of 20B boe at less than $40/bbl WTI, representing a resource life of more than 30 years at current production levels. 
• The company also pledged to speed up its greenhouse gas intensity reduction target through 2030 by 10% to a range of 50%-60% using a 2016 baseline. 
• ConocoPhillips (COP) is expected to provide shareholders with almost 5% in annualized dividends and share buybacks, generating strong shareholder returns.

QCOM In Free-Fall; AAPL Down In Pre-Market -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44538I.

QCOM:

AAPL:

Now That Oil Is Well Below $70, The Administration Will Begin Refilling The SPR -- ROTFL -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44537I. 

Wow, this week went fast. And I learned a lot. Ablemarle.

Intel:

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: $68.79.

Natural gas: $$2.165.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Friday, May 5, 2023: 10 for the month; 62 for the quarter, 317 for the year
38774, conf,  Whiting, Crane Creek Sstate 11-16-2TFH,
31258, conf, BR, Gladstone 7-1-13TFH,
Thursday, May 4, 2023: 8 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 315 for the year
38856, conf,  Whiting, Littlefield 11-21-2HU,
36401, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 4-24-26-16HU,

RBN Energy: crude oil exports will drive US production growth.

May the 4th be with you! Today — Star Wars Day to many of us — we borrow (and bastardize) one of the most memorable quotes from that epic collection of movies, “May the Force be with you,” to make the point that, like the “Force” that shapes events in the Star Wars universe, for the U.S. oil patch, exports are the lifeblood of today’s market.

U.S. refineries are operating at more than 90% of their rated capacity and using as much domestically produced light-sweet shale oil as their sophisticated equipment will allow. That means that virtually all of the incremental U.S. unconventional light-sweet crude oil production will need to be piped to export terminals along the Gulf Coast, loaded onto tankers, and shipped to refineries overseas. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what this undeniable link between crude oil exports and production growth means for U.S. E&Ps and midstream companies — and the future of the oil and gas industry.

 

Ford Sticks WIth CarPlay --May 4, 2023

Locator: 44536AAPL. 

If you actually go to this link and I assume 95% of readers will not, be sure to read the comments. 

Link here.

Link here.

GMs decision makes Bud's recent marketing debacle look like a speed bump at Daytona.

The decisin for Ford was easy: if Ford had gone it's own way, as GM did, their entertainment system would have been named ForePlay.

May The Fourth Be With You -- It Was For Bud -- Bud Crushes Earnings -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44536BUD. 

Later: shares surge. Despite Dow falling 300 points on report of likely third California bank failure. [Add a fourth regional bank: Phoenix-based. #13 on Forbe’s list of America’s Best Banks.]

[Read the political and financial history of California, 2000 - 2010. Link here: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2023/05/pondering-may-3-2023.html.]

First things first, link here.

Belgian firm Anheuser-Busch InBev reported core profit of $4.76 billion, up by 13.6% from the first quarter of 2022, in its first-quarter earnings today (May 4). The company attributed the massive surge–Wall Street was expecting a jump of around 5.6%—to “pricing actions” and “product premiumizations.” In other words, price hikes were absorbed by customers, and many of them opted for higher-tier products this quarter.

The marketing debacle began April 12 - 13, 2023. We won't know the effects of that debacle until 2Q23 earnings come out.

From Zacks pre-announcement:

Much more later, perhaps.