Comment -- May 4, 2023

Locator: 44564W. 

Random comment:

• today, another headline -- the decrease in US diesel demand signals recession -- yeah, that's the headline.
• exactly how is that headline / interpretation / analysis / signal helpful for me as an investor?
• for the past ten years there have been predictions of stagflation, recessions, stock market collapse, and more recessions, more stagflation, and another stock market collapse, and the headlines continue; I can't say that any of those headlines ever helped me in my investing;
• interestingly I do not recall one headline in the past ten years that predicted that the Silicon Valley Bank would collapse; then the First Republic Bank would collapse; and, then the banks would continue to fall like dominoes, until we had a national banking crisis -- but I digress;
• now, we get headlines that this will be one of the worst hurricane seasons on record; again, how does this "headline" help me with my investing strategy; should I sell all my BRK shares since BRK is a big insurer? Should I sell all my XOM and COP and PSX shares knowing that hurricanes wipe out coastal refineries; should I buy shares of recreational companies that sell kayaks and canoes; honestly, now that I know this summer will be the worse hurricane season on record, I have no idea what I should do. I don't even know what "defensive" stocks would be appropriate in that scenario.
• all the predictions that China would collapse; that China would invade Taiwan; that the Chinese supply chain would cripple Apple; that Qualcom's awful earnings report was a harbinger to come for Apple, I suppose I should have sold all my Apple yesterday; today Apple reported one of its best January - March quarters ever; and announced a $90-billion share buyback and dividend program; and, then raised its dividend 4% which is almost insane considering Apple likes paying dividends as much as Warren Buffett likes paying dividends.
• AAPL surged after hours
• even the headline that Lordstown is on the verge of bankruptcy didn't help me; I don't invest in EVs
• anyway, enough of this, but before I go, a quick look at Drudge to see the next depressing headline:

• yeah, there it is. I can't make this stuff up. Should I sell all my shares in  B** which I've had for forty years and those shares now hava a cost basis so low, it can no longer be calculated but it's paying a 5% dividend?

Another comment:

• even as we seem to be spiraling into a banking crisis of mega-proportions, the Fed sees "no problem" and continues raising "rates."
• I don't know about you, but I'm almost getting the feeling that this has become personal; a personal "fight" between JPow (Fed) and Janet Yellen (Treasury);
• I know nothing about economic politics and macroeconomics but this certainly has a "strange" feeling to it, what's going on in Washington right now.
• about the time the Fed started raising rates (and I was still watching CNBC), I got the feeling that JPow was personally angry about something -- I think I may have blogged that but I can't remember. But that feeling has returned; that JPow seems angry. 

I'm out in the middle of a soccer field in a humongous sports complex, now under dark, threatening clouds, and the temperature has dropped twenty degrees (or so it seems), and my laptop is down to 10% battery. I'm calling it a day. Until later this evening.