The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 04/25/23

Tuesday, April 25, 2023

Oil Activity Near Williston High School -- April 25, 2023

Locator: 44471B.

Over on twitter tonight, there was a photo of a soccer game being played at Williston High School. In the background, one could see giant (seriously) rigs, pumpers and flaring. A reader asked me the location. I'll try to find the picture on twitter, and if I find it, I will post it. I have the photo on another mobile device, I just have to get it "moved" to my laptop.

Later, I will come back and identify the pads and the wells in the photos below but I was eager to get this posted for the reader who was trying to identify the location of the oil wells in relationship to WHS.

The google satellite photo could be months / years old. The lower map -- from the NDIC -- is as current as one can get -- literally how things look today.

Okay, found the picture, got it from one mobile device to another. WHS soccer at Williston; giant rigs, pumpers, and flaring seen in the background.

GM To Jettison CarPlay — April 25, 2023

Locator: 44470H.

Dylan: I hold the record for destroying the brand name of an iconic American brand.

GM CFO: Here, hold my beer.

Link here.

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.No Party Debates In 2024?

Biden: no Dem opponents. Only likely hold-out Bernie now backs the president.

Trump: has already said he won’t debate GOP opponents. Says they will say bad, untrue things about him.

One New Permit; CLR Acquired A Few Old Billings County Wells From White Rock Oil -- April 25, 2023

Locator: 44469B.

API draw today:

forecast: a draw of 1.7 million bbls
actual: a draw of over 6 million bbls
WTI? Unfazed.

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $77.32.

Natural gas: $2.246.

One new permit, #39852:

Operator: SOGC (Sinclair)
Field: Little Knife (Dunn)
Comments:

SOGC has a permit for a Hovden Federal well, SWSE 19-146-97;

to be sited 890 FSL and 1393 FEL;

Interestingly, CLR acquired a few wells in Billings County from White Rock Oil, all weere very old wells.

Getting Caught Up; And You Want To Invest In Beer? Look At Molson's Profit Margin -- Part 2 -- April 25, 2023

Locator: 44468B.

Not ready for prime-time; not proof-read; not fact-checked; links may or may not work; links may or may not be correct. Proceed at own risk. Usual disclaimer applies.

I've been so preoccupied with family events / commitments ever since Olivia's soccer team won the Texas state 5A high school soccer tournament that I've not kept up with a lot.

I haven't paid attention to the market at all except to look at BUD, occasionally SCHW, and there was another one which I've now long (one week) forgotten.

My in-box is so full from readers I won't possibly get to everything, so I think I will provide the links, delete the mail that has accumulated, and look forward to doing better next week. Yeah, I know this is only Tuesday, but the family events / commitments continue through this week, with a Jiu-Jitsu tournament for Sophia on Saturday.

Most of what follows is with regard to investing. I did the " other non-investing stuff" earlier today.

Top investors: top positions. Essentially two strategies:

100% on BRK; or,
buy the market.

Energy: things not working out for the Saudi princes. Despite surprise cuts in production, oil prices are stuck in the low 80's -- not good for Saudi. I haven't see the numbers, but I bet Saudi based their budget on $100-oil. Worse, their go-to markets -- India and China are buying cheap Russian oil. LOL. Link here.

HAL: looking good.

and, here.

ENB: Motley Fool link here.

TMO: worthy of consideration for investing? Memo to self.

Wind energy:

T: dividends, link to IBD;

XOM: expansion of refinery in Beaumont, TX; link to Forbes, here.

Apple: Don Lemon buying a new Apple phone after his was "confiscated" by CNN.

Margins: at the end of the day, it's all about margins. In the big scheme of things there are only two beer companies in the US: BUD and Molson Coors.

BUD: profit margin.

TAP: profit margin.

Getting Caught Up -- Part 1 -- April 25, 2023

Locator: 44467B.

Not ready for prime-time; not proof-read; not fact-checked; links may or may not work; links may or may not be correct. Proceed at own risk. Usual disclaimer applies.

I've been so preoccupied with family events / commitments ever since Olivia's soccer team won the Texas state 5A high school soccer tournament that I've not kept up with a lot.

I haven't paid attention to the market at all except to look at BUD, occasionally SCHW, and there was another one which I've now long (one week) forgotten.

Most of what follows is not with regard to investing; that will be in Part II.

A do-over? Biden vs Trump?

for the archives, Biden announces he will re-run.
it has been reported that the incumbent said it would be a great honor to die in office;
to die in office would be quite the legacy for a US president; it hasn't happened often

Corden: add Corden to this list that came out over the past 48 hours

Don Lemon and CNN part ways
Tucker Carlson and Fox News part ways
top marketing execs and BUD part ways
James Corden and The Late Late Show part ways

right, right decision; refreshing; speaks volumes about Harry formerly known as Prince
cute little vignette;

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers part ways
Susan Rice steps down from government job
Harry Bellafonte and terra firma part ways (figuratively, not necessarily literally)
Chevy and Bolt part ways.

McDonald's

recurrent theme on the blog: inflation doesn't matter (don't take that out of context)
headline: McDonald's revamp is paying off; net income rises 63% in 1Q23; link here;
taking customers (and money) away from competitors
MCD (stock) has traded at record highs this month (April, 2023)
broad restructuring and laying off "hundreds" of workers
reducing "some" employees' compensation packages
I had a Big Mac meal on Saturday this past weekend

that was the first time I've been to McDonald's in a year (?) -- that I can recall -- it's possible it's been longer
I was surprised how costly the meal was; I did not "up-size" it -- kept it at "medium-size" -- was just under $9
my expectation: a $5-handle, and significantly less than $6

I guess I've been under the Geico rock

GM:

recurrent theme on the blog: inflation doesn't matter (don't take that out of context);
GM reported 1Q23 pretax profit that blew past analysts' forecasts;
average price per vehicle: $50,263 (ouch)
link here: cars are getting much, much more expensive; buyers are not hesitating; GM having a great year
raised its full-year profit outlook for the year;
Wall Street is not impressed; at every measure, one-day, five-day, one-month, six-month, YTD, one-year, five-year, and max: GM stock is in the red; for full year, GM is down 17%:
by the way, at all those same intervals (one-day ---> max), BUD is in the green (and huge for some intervals) except for the five-year measure, where it's down 34% -- something "Heiner" noticed (and apparently no one else did); in the past year, again under "Heiner," BUD stock is/was up 11%;
GM kills off the Chevy Bolt; why?
can you imagine how much the Bolt cost GM? Link here.

battery fires (yeah, that will do it);
and, sluggish sales (not catering to the LGBTQ market?)
they’re reading the blog;

Did someone say batteries?

GM and Samsung announce joint EV battery plant venture;
to take advantage of US IRA credits
$3 billion plant
link here; and, here; location not announced.

Did someone say batteries? The most troublesome issue for automobile insurance companies going forward: batteries and the unlimited liability for damages due to an EV fire.

Imagine if an EV fire occurs in the garage of a high-rise building in downtown NYC. I can easily imagine legacy insurance companies refusing to insure EVs. No matter how "tight" the policies are written, if there is an EV policy, smart lawyers will get the case to court. Solution: automobile manufacturers will have to insure the vehicles they sell. It appears GM and Tesla are already working those issues.

Related:

HAL: looking good.

and, here.

Exhibit A: I've blogged about this so many times, I'm even bored by the subject.

Tucker:

BUD:

much could be said but the WSJ has it exactly right, but they do miss the most important point of the story;
I won't post what I consider the most important point of the story; it's obvious; but I'll use this as a time-date stamp if any writer mentions it
WSJ link here.
another WSJ link on the BUD issue. And, again, a great article, but the 600-lb gorilla issue is avoided.

Digresssion:

as long as I've gone down this path, another comment
my "thoughts" on so many issues have flip-flopped over the years
my thoughts on removing Aunt Jemima and other "icons" off pancake mixes; syrups; and butter have evolved
my thoughts have evolved for a number of reasons, some emotional and some rational
my rational thoughts coincide with my investing philosophy: my horizon is a rolling-30-year horizon;
when considering in which companies to invest, I look at where the company or the sector might be in 30 years
seriously, does anyone think Aunt Jemima has relevance as the spokesperson for a pancake mix in 2050?
if so, Tim Cook needs to put a photo of Alexander Graham Bell on every iPhone box.

Beer prices:

recurrent theme on the blog: inflation doesn't matter (don't take that out of context)
both Bud and Miller have become incredibly more expensive but at the up-scale supermarket where I shop, both have cut prices by 25%; not yet a price war, but it's starting to look like one;
in our area, a six-pack of almost any brand runs between $10.99 and $12.99, significantly more than year ago
the good news: Total Wines (locally) has held the line on prices; one can easily find a 6-pack for $8.99, even occasionally $7.99 (all well-known brands) but most are at $9.99 for the ones I would consider;
it suggests to me that supermarkets are taking advantage of "marketing" "inflation

Which brings me to:

White Mischief -->James Fox -->Cyril Connolly-->Enemies of Promise.
also, another book-buying site;
I read the book differently than how the wiki link summarizes it.
The book, Enemies of Promise, has had a profound influence on me; I first read it several years ago;

Oil Dives -- Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- April 25, 2023

Locator: 44466B.

Breaking: I've tweaked my waffle recipe -- the base ingredient remains a store-bought brand.
the tweaks involve all other ingredients and their amounts

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Back to the Bakken

North Dakota Legacy Fund: posts - 10.1% net return for fiscal year. Despite a negative ten percent, it's actually quite better than that reported by many others. Link here. I assume this includes deposits, but don't know for sure.

Active rigs: 43.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $76.83. Down 2.5%.

Natural gas: $2.214. Down 2.6%.

Wednesday, April 26, 2023: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 299 for the year
None.

Tuesday, April 25, 2023: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 299 for the year
38857, conf, Whiting, Littlefield 11-21-2TFHU,
38564, conf, Hess, GO-Haug-LE-156-98-1917H-1,
32922, conf, Whiting, Crane Creek State 11-16H,

RBN Energy: building toward another revival of Canada's east coast oil production.

Though much smaller in scope than the oil-and-gas producing behemoth of Western Canada, oil production from the offshore of Canada’s easternmost province of Newfoundland and Labrador already has decades of experience behind it. With five offshore fields producing a little under 230 Mb/d as of early 2023, the region’s slow decline is likely to continue unless existing fields undertake additional development work or new fields are discovered. Building on the province’s commitment to double output by the end of this decade, it has worked with various offshore operators to enhance its royalty regime for two existing sites that will generate increased production in the next few years. In addition, one major discovery has the real potential to meet the pledge of doubling output by the early 2030s. In today’s RBN blog we consider the history of the region’s offshore oil production and future plans to increase output.