Getting Caught Up -- Part 1 -- April 25, 2023

Locator: 44467B.

Not ready for prime-time; not proof-read; not fact-checked; links may or may not work; links may or may not be correct. Proceed at own risk. Usual disclaimer applies. 

I've been so preoccupied with family events / commitments ever since Olivia's soccer team won the Texas state 5A high school soccer tournament that I've not kept up with a lot. 

I haven't paid attention to the market at all except to look at BUD, occasionally SCHW, and there was another one which I've now long (one week) forgotten. 

My in-box is so full from readers I won't possibly get to everything, so I think I will provide the links, delete the mail that has accumulated, and look forward to doing better next week. Yeah, I know this is only Tuesday, but the family events / commitments continue through this week, with a Jiu-Jitsu tournament for Sophia on Saturday.

Most of what follows is not with regard to investing; that will be in Part II.

A do-over? Biden vs Trump?

• for the archives, Biden announces he will re-run.
• it has been reported that the incumbent said it would be a great honor to die in office;
• to die in office would be quite the legacy for a US president; it hasn't happened often

Corden: add Corden to this list that came out over the past 48 hours

• Don Lemon and CNN part ways
• Tucker Carlson and Fox News part ways
• top marketing execs and BUD part ways
• James Corden and The Late Late Show part ways
• right, right decision; refreshing; speaks volumes about Harry formerly known as Prince
• cute little vignette;
• Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers part ways
• Susan Rice steps down from government job
• Harry Bellafonte and terra firma part ways (figuratively, not necessarily literally)
  
• Chevy and Bolt part ways.

McDonald's

• recurrent theme on the blog: inflation doesn't matter (don't take that out of context)
• headline: McDonald's revamp is paying off; net income rises 63% in 1Q23; link here;
• taking customers (and money) away from competitors
• MCD (stock) has traded at record highs this month (April, 2023)
• broad restructuring and laying off "hundreds" of workers
• reducing "some" employees' compensation packages
• I had a Big Mac meal on Saturday this past weekend
• that was the first time I've been to McDonald's in a year (?) -- that I can recall -- it's possible it's been longer
• I was surprised how costly the meal was; I did not "up-size" it -- kept it at "medium-size" -- was just under $9
• my expectation: a $5-handle, and significantly less than $6 
• I guess I've been under the Geico rock
  

GM:

• recurrent theme on the blog: inflation doesn't matter (don't take that out of context);
• GM reported 1Q23 pretax profit that blew past analysts' forecasts;
• average price per vehicle: $50,263 (ouch)
• link here: cars are getting much, much more expensive; buyers are not hesitating; GM having a great year
• raised its full-year profit outlook for the year;
• Wall Street is not impressed; at every measure, one-day, five-day, one-month, six-month, YTD, one-year, five-year, and max: GM stock is in the red; for full year, GM is down 17%:
• by the way, at all those same intervals (one-day ---> max), BUD is in the green (and huge for some intervals) except for the five-year measure, where it's down 34% -- something "Heiner" noticed (and apparently no one else did); in the past year, again under "Heiner," BUD stock is/was up 11%;
• GM kills off the Chevy Bolt; why?
• can you imagine how much the Bolt cost GM? Link here.
• battery fires (yeah, that will do it);
• and, sluggish sales (not catering to the LGBTQ market?)
• they’re reading the blog;

Did someone say batteries?

• GM and Samsung announce joint EV battery plant venture;
• to take advantage of US IRA credits
• $3 billion plant
• link here; and, here; location not announced.

Did someone say batteries? The most troublesome issue for automobile insurance companies going forward: batteries and the unlimited liability for damages due to an EV fire. 

Imagine if an EV fire occurs in the garage of a high-rise building in downtown NYC. I can easily imagine legacy insurance companies refusing to insure EVs. No matter how "tight" the policies are written, if there is an EV policy,  smart lawyers will get the case to court. Solution: automobile manufacturers will have to insure the vehicles they sell. It appears GM and Tesla are already working those issues.

Related:

HAL: looking good.

• and, here.

Exhibit A: I've blogged about this so many times, I'm even bored by the subject.

Tucker:

• WSJ link here.
• link 1;
• link 2;
• link 3;
• link 4.

BUD:

• much could be said but the WSJ has it exactly right, but they do miss the most important point of the story;
• I won't post what I consider the most important point of the story; it's obvious; but I'll use this as a time-date stamp if any writer mentions it
• WSJ link here.
• another WSJ link on the BUD issue. And, again, a great article, but the 600-lb gorilla issue is avoided.

Digresssion:

• as long as I've gone down this path, another comment
• my "thoughts" on so many issues have flip-flopped over the years
• my thoughts on removing Aunt Jemima and other "icons" off pancake mixes; syrups; and butter have evolved
• my thoughts have evolved for a number of reasons, some emotional and some rational
• my rational thoughts coincide with my investing philosophy: my horizon is a rolling-30-year horizon;
• when considering in which companies to invest, I look at where the company or the sector might be in 30 years
• seriously, does anyone think Aunt Jemima has relevance as the spokesperson for a pancake mix in 2050?
• if so, Tim Cook needs to put a photo of Alexander Graham Bell on every iPhone box.

Beer prices:

• recurrent theme on the blog: inflation doesn't matter (don't take that out of context)
• both Bud and Miller have become incredibly more expensive but at the up-scale supermarket where I shop, both have cut prices by 25%; not yet a price war, but it's starting to look like one;
• in our area, a six-pack of almost any brand runs between $10.99 and $12.99, significantly more than year ago
• the good news: Total Wines (locally) has held the line on prices; one can easily find a 6-pack for $8.99, even occasionally $7.99 (all well-known brands) but most are at $9.99 for the ones I would consider;
• it suggests to me that supermarkets are taking advantage of "marketing" "inflation

Which brings me to:

• White Mischief -->James Fox -->Cyril Connolly-->Enemies of Promise.
• also, another book-buying site;
• I read the book differently than how the wiki link summarizes it.
• The book, Enemies of Promise, has had a profound influence on me; I first read it several years ago;