Re-posting from May 27, 2020.
Locator: 23000A. Locator: 44319B.
If you have time to read only one
report on EVs today, the KPMG report would be the one. The report will
download on your desktop as a pdf, but it might be hard to find. In the
last paragraph at this link the pdf link is buried:
In our paper
we discuss how automakers can adjust EV plans to conform to the
near-term reality of the market.
We do not dispute that a long-term
shift to electric drivetrains is under way.
Like other industry
analysts, we expect that barriers to EV sales could fall away in the
2030s.
To prepare, automakers of all kinds need to build the
capabilities now to design, manufacture and sell EVs.
But if the cost of
learning includes launching dozens of models that can never break even,
the benefits of EVs may be pushed farther into the future.
First, many
companies won’t take that risk and might rethink EVs altogether. And
those that push on now and suffer the financial consequences may no
longer be in shape to contribute to the advancement of EVs and compete
in the mass market when it does materialize. Only by finding a
profitable route into the EV market now can automakers make their
contribution to mitigating climate change in 2050.
Wow, reading that closely and reading in between the lines suggests that
the Chinese auto manufacturers who generally don't respect patents (at
least that's the worldview of many) could do very, very well by simply
waiting and stealing the technology in 2030.
The URL for this link:
https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2020/ev-plan-b.html -- will download as a pdf.
Re-posting.
KPMG warned against an EV glut in early 2020 and that was
before
the corona virus pandemic. One can get to the full KPMG report. The
report has a copyright date of 2020, but the exact date of publication
was not provided, as far as I can tell. Because they provide 2019 data
and do not mention the corona virus, it appears this report was released
near the end of January, 2020.
It's a great report,
and recommended reading. In fact, I will re-post the links in a
stand-alone post to make it easier to access.
This caught my attention, page 6 of 14, exhibit 2,
from the report:
Based
on our analysis of battery, fuel, and other costs, we conclude that ICE
vehicles will make more economic sense than EVs for personal use for
many years to come.
This
assumes no unforeseen breakthrough that dramatically and suddenly
reduces battery costs and no radical changes in U.S. policy to switch
consumers to electric cars.
As
a result, we anticipate that EVs will remain a small factor in U.S.
personal-use auto sales into the next decade, if not longer.
We
estimate that in 2030 total EV sales will be 1.1 million to 1.8 million
or about 7 to 12 percent of the market for personal-use vehicles.
*******************************
Putting All Those Amazon Boxes To Good Use
Sophia and I are having a blast using old Amazon boxes to make
structures for her "Polly Pocket" dolls. The first thing we made was a
house with attached garage.
She drew the plan on the box and then I cut out the doors, windows,
garage doors, etc. We used screws, bolts and nuts, and hooks (for
hanging pictures) as door knobs, etc, for the structures.
Sophia painted the structures and used other media to decorate the "buildings."
Here is an example of the Polly Pocket VW van pulling out of the garage.
It should be noted that the VW van is powered by a conventional
internal combustion engine.
Based on the number of Amazon boxes stacking up around her house, we
should be able to re-construct a suburb of Dallas, TX, or if we really
want to go wild, a model of NYC.
By the way, the white strip of paper down the side of the garage in the
photo above: a temporary stairway to the roof where Polly Pocket can
sunbathe, practicing social distancing, of course.
