My Favorite Chart -- April 5, 2023

Locator: 44316B.

Updates

April 6, 2023: wow, look what popped up over night. Link here.

Original Post

My favorite chart, link here.

I vividly remember a reader writing me about my naivete when it came to posting this chart as "my favorite chart," money market fund monitor, about a year ago. What a doofus. 

It remains my favorite chart. 

I'm bringing that up now because a reader says a Barclay's "round table" is suggesting that we will have seen another $1.5 trillion moved into March, 2023, money market funds when the data is released.  

$1.5 trillion.

Closing Down For The Night -- April 5, 2023

Locator: 44315B.

This is scary: link here. This explains a lot:

This is the real problem: link here.

Rolling Stone: I haven't read an issue of Rolling Stone in ages. Rolling Stone was the 60's. In 2023 it's no longer relevant. It needs to re-invent itself, re-brand itself, break up into two divisions: the 1960s division and the "today" division.

Playboy: ditto.

Bedtime reading, arrived today, ordered late last night:

Six New Permits; Ovintiv Reports Five DUCs Completed -- April 5, 2023

Locator: 44314B.

Wow, traders and investors were "divided" on outlook:

• oil fundamentals suggest oil should be melting higher (price), and yet it doesn't, suggesting,
• folks are really concerned about a global slowdown (recession) and yet that seems just as hard to sort out.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $80.46.

Natural gas: $2.139.

Six new permits, #39789 - #39794, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (4); Petro-Hunt (2)
• Fields: Rattlesnake Point (Dunn); Little Knife (Billings County)
• Comments:
• CLR has permits for two more Cuskelly wells and two more Thorvald wells, lot 1 section 7-146-96; 
• to be sited 275 FNL and between 994 FWL and 1124 FWL;
• Petro-Hunt has permits for two Terres wells, NENE 13-144-98; 
• to be sited 664 FNL with one well 480 FEL and the other well 515 FEL;

Note: there have been so many new CLR Cuskelly and Thorvald permits in the past three days, I've updated the Cuskelly / Thorvald site.

Five producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed: four of the five are Three Forks, first bench wells; 30-stage stims; 175,000 bbls proppant:

• 38743, 426 BOP, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-11H,
• 38744, 794 BOP, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-3H,
• 38745, 1,045 BOP, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-12H,
• 38747, 929 BOP, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-13H,
• 38749, 813 BOP, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-414H,

Personal Electricity -- Monthly Bill -- April 5, 2023

Locator: 44313B.

To paraphrase someone else shilling for something else, if you are paying more than $75 for your utilities you're doing something wrong. I lack for nothing, and have way more than I ever expected, and my entire utility bill is $75 (per month). 

Personal electricity bill this month. We do not use any natural gas. Our only utility bill is electricity.

The CLR Bud Wells -- Crazy Man Creek

Locator: 44312B.

A reader asked me to take a look at the CLR Bud wells in Crazy Man Creek.

A land man called offering $56,000 for five acres along with royalties if well is productive.

Currently five "Bud" wells. I suspect there could be as many as 19 more wells in this drilling unit. 

Land men generally call about the time they expect to see more permits let or drilling soon to commence in area of concern. 

Bakken operators are generally drilling wells with EURs of one million bbls.

Here is the map:

The wells:

• 19424, 662, CLR, Bud 1-19H, Crazy Man Creek, t3/11; cum 493K 2/23; huge halo effect 8/17;
  
• 30239, 1,629, CLR, Bud 4-30H, Crazy Man Creek, t9/17; cum 241K 2/23;
  
• 30240, 1,650, CLR, Bud 5-20H1, Crazy Man Creek, t9/17; cum 256K 2/23;
  

• 28937, 703, CLR, Bud 3-30H1, Crazy Man Creek, Three Forks, t1/15; cum 406K 2/23; recent production; huge halo effect in 10/17;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	2097	2478	2511	7506	6622	530
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1774	1405	2533	5859	5253	243
BAKKEN	12-2022	23	401	276	1160	1480	1188	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	23	952	1082	1468	3619	3319	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	1375	1513	2290	6036	5617	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	1346	1273	2216	6035	5630	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	1412	1538	2285	5801	5174	220
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	1699	1589	2176	6208	5459	331
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	1512	1329	2086	4880	4051	440
BAKKEN	5-2022	30	1148	1272	1666	5038	4671	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	23	925	1065	1946	3685	3389	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1407	1300	2162	6082	5559	104
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1381	1304	2036	6175	5797	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	1962	1972	2365	6730	5577	734
BAKKEN	12-2021	24	1174	1034	1552	4930	4404	220

• 28938, 871, CLR, Bud 2-30H, Crazy Man Creek, middle Bakken, t1/15; cum 467K 2/23; recent production:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	1927	2094	2158	5946	5568	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1960	2091	2151	5744	4306	1021
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	1926	1636	2026	6767	6375	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	2200	2337	2215	7057	6652	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	2207	2089	2486	6739	6321	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	2201	2331	2472	6159	5757	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	2253	2114	2549	5228	4571	252
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	2417	2511	2707	5633	4881	333
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	2249	2230	2526	4609	4083	124
BAKKEN	5-2022	29	2020	1934	2357	3713	3347	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	23	1705	1857	1936	3191	2894	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	2214	2180	2855	3928	3509	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	2233	2230	2467	4103	3725	0

 The map:

These wells are very, very good wells. Perhaps not great wells or monster wells, but they are very good, and I suspect new wells will be just as good (probably better) and like to see more evidence of halo effect with regard to some of the currently producing wells.

Weeky EIA Petroleum Report; Gasoline Demand -- April 5, 2023

Locator: 44311B.

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here. 

• US crude oil in storage decreased by 3.7 million bbls; at 470.0 million bbls, crude oil in storage is about 4% above the five year average, which means the administration can still release a fair amount of crude oil from the SPR; there’s more than enough crude oil in non-SPR commercial reserves.
• imports increased by 1.8 million bbls; that's a significant jump; 
• refiners were only operating at 89.6% of their operable capacity;
• gasoline production decreased last week
• distillate fuel decreased by 3.6 million bbls and are about 12% below their five-year average 
• jet fuel supplied was up 6.1%

Gasoline demand, link here:

WTI, after the report:

• down 0.05%; in other words, flat
• trading at $80.66

Gasoline demand:

• upwards of 50% of office workers have not yet returned to the office for a full five-day workweek;

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Freight Train

By the song-writer herself.

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- April 5, 2023

Locator: 44310B.

Link of the day: how the US became a natural gas giant. Alex Kimani, link here.

India: fuel demand hits 24-year high. All those mo-peds! LOL. Does one really think we're going to see all those batteries in India in 2060? I doubt there's enough lithium in the universe for all the batteries India would need.

Derivatives: a lot of oil companies are going to report worse earnings, getting crushed by derivatives; no one saw the OPEC cut coming. Companies were betting on much lower prices due to "coming" recession.

Bloomberg energy newsletter. Link here.

• both Saudi and Texas comfortable with "profit over production." 

Eggs: here we go again. Flat earthers will says it's a conspiracy. Link here. Lack of space to bury dead birds? I know a nuclear facility not currently being used.

Apple's earnings: 1Q23 income statement. A groundbreaking announcement might be in store at the June, 2023, conference.

Apple: time to play hardball. Show up for work if you want to keep your job.

Politics: forever blue -- Wisconsin. Link here.

Mountain Valley pipeline: nixed by US Appeals Court. Is that constructive, asks Janet Yellen. Activists find new way to stymie projects.

XOM quits Brazil. Link here.

XOM earnings: negatively affected by derivatives. Again. How often have we heard this story? Also, here.

$110: Rystad Energy. Link here.

Gold: along with oil, surges. Up $6.30; trading at $2,044.50. Could see new records.

Russia: from RBN Energy, see below:

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $80.50.

Natural gas: $2.117.

Thursday, April 6, 2023: 14 for the month; 14 for the quarter, 269 for the year
38874, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 6-31-30H,
37568, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-31-30H,

Wednesday, April 5, 2023: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter, 267 for the year
38690, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-5H,
38627, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-4-3H,

RBN Energy: US crude oil helps replace Russian barrels in Europe.

Russia supplied significant volumes of crude oil and refined products to Europe for many years. Its primary crude oil export grade, medium-sour Urals (approximately 30 API and 1.7% sulfur), was a benchmark, both in quality and price, that European refiners long relied on to plan refinery processing configurations and that served as a signal for crude oil pricing dynamics in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean.

In addition to crude oil, Russia was a large supplier of gasoil (diesel) as well as a more limited supplier of other refined products such as fuel oil (including intermediate feedstocks) and naphtha.

In today’s RBN blog, we review the abrupt reduction in Russian crude oil movements to Europe following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine 13 months ago with an eye on the specific grades that have filled the gap.