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Thursday, March 23, 2023

Two CLR Bang Wells Updated -- March 23, 2023

The wells:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202331152171525312810206642033795
BAKKEN12-202231235352350719747285692822999
BAKKEN11-2022252150721549202442613725409539
BAKKEN10-2022314013040198324384628545512557
BAKKEN9-2022131588815710134621480713975832
BAKKEN8-202210012264330433
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2023312550325523135353175331374147
BAKKEN12-2022312952129498164473893238556135
BAKKEN11-2022303077030793231403868437657799
BAKKEN10-2022314388543954297864921848410592
BAKKEN9-20221416794166051116019724183771347

What's Behind Ford's Decision To "Break Out" EV Costs? March 23, 2023

Question for the day -- what's behind Ford's decision to "break out" EV costs?We'll discuss that later this evening. See update here.

  • reassure Ford shareholders;
  • after three years of increasing losses, ready to report an improvement;
  • going head-to-head with Tesla

Ford dividend: hand-in-glove with the above question, is Ford's dividend at which we will also take a look.

Janet Yellen backtracks: says "full insurance" is still on the table. 

Philadelphia poor: defined as income for a single mom / couple / household as less than $100,000.

Transgender athletes: World Athletics makes correct decision. Let's see if the governing body can stand the "backlash."

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $69.96.

Natural gas: $2.154.

No new permits.

Five permits renewed:

  • Formentera Operations (4): Marauder and Shorty (Divide), RNL1-A and RNL1-C (Burrke)
  • Enerplus: Morgan (incomplete data on daily activity report)

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38514, 1,810, CLR, Dunn County;
  • 37008, 490, CLR, Williams County;
  • 36998, 541, CLR, Williams County;
  • 37420, 392, Petro-Hunt, Burke County;
  • 39262, 1,962, Grayson Mill, Williams County;
  • 38713, 448, Murex, Williams County;
  • 38714, 475, Murex, Williams County;

From The Babylon Bee? LOL -- March 23, 2023

Link here

Translation: the Biden administration isn't even going to try. LOL.

Spoiler alert: it no longer matters. The US shale sector can turn on a proverbial dime. Maybe with inflation, it's the proverbial quarter.

But seriously, has the "diminished" SPR affected your daily life?

Quarterly Lease Sales -- March, 2023

Locator: 10001Lease3/23.

Note: this was done quickly; not proofread and not double-checked; there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

This is definitely a different format.

North Dakota Trust Lands -- front page; start here.

Link here.

Highest bonus:

  • $160.00 / acre: 251 acres; Northern Energy, 159-103; Williams County;
  • $160.00 / acre: 132 acres; LoneTree Energy, 159-103; Williams County;
  • $160.00 / acre: 351 acres; Phoenix Capital Group, 159-103; Williams County;
  • $160.00 / acre: 433 acres; LoneTree Energy, 159-103; Williams County;
  • $160.00 / acre: 426 acres; SoloCorp, 159-103; Williams County;
  • $160.00 / acre: 189 acres: Five States Energy, 138-99; Stark County;
  • $160.00 / acre; 10 acres; InterWest Petroleum; 138-99; Stark County;
  • $160.00 / acre; 6 acres; InterWest Petroleum; 138-99; Stark County;
  • $160.00 / acre; 6 acres; InterWest Petroleum; 135-106; Slope County;
  • $160.00 / acre; 6 acres; InterWest Petroleum; 135-106; and,
  • a dozen more at $160 / acre.

Largest blocks at $160 / acre:

  • $160.00 / acre: 503 acres; Phoenix Capital Group, 161-102; Divide County;
  • $160.00 / acre: 501 acres; Northern Energy; 161-102; Divide County;
  • $160.00 / acre: 455 acres; LoneTree Energy; 161-102; Divide County;
  • $160.00 / acre: 455 acres; LoneTree Energy; 161-102; Divide County;
  • $160.00 / acre: 433 acres; LoneTree Energy, 159-103; Williams County;

Largest block:

  • $80 / acre: 1,010 acres; Phoenix Capital Group; 147-99; McKenzie County;

Note: $160 / acre x 500 acres = $80,000.

  • EUR:
    • one million bbls / 1280 acres
    • 800 bbls / acre
    • 800 bbls x $50 / bbl = $40,000 / acre
    • $40,000 / acre x 800 bbls / acre = $32 million
Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

Eggs -- March 23, 2023

Updates

Later, 1:36 p.m. CT: eggs are $2.87 at Walmart. No tax. No delivery fee. Simply, $2.87,

Later, 12:32 p.m. CT: eggs are the least expensive I've seen in a year(?) at Target. A dozen eggs priced at $2.59. If you want to spend upwards of $8 / dozen from hens treated / fed differently, you still have that option. But that's a personal choice, not inflation per se (except for "elite eggs").

Original Post 

Would this be "transitory"?

Link here.

By the way, my hunch: Americans cut way back on their fresh egg consumption for the past six months.

Is there anything wrong with that?

Ford -- EV Losses -- March 23, 2023

Updates

Later, 1:37 p.m. CT: this article goes a long way explaining why the F-150 Raptor, 8-cylinder starts at $109,000, and quickly trades at $172,000. This is not inflation; this is paying for ESG. See update here.

Original Post 

I'll come back to this later, but for now, the links.

The WSJ: the EV business:

  • 2021: a los of $900 million
  • 2022: a loss of $2.1 billion (forecast, $2 billion to $3 billion)
  • 2023: forecast -- a loss of $3 billion

CNBC: link here:

Nvidia -- Story Of The Week -- March 23, 2023

Story of the day: NVDA.

One could argue the #1 investing story trending thee past two days was about Nvidia.

Some of the overnight links:

The semiconductors are tracked here.

Today:

  • NVDA: up $8.36, up 3.2%; trading at $273.

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Clickbait -- For The Archives

Over at Insider, taken from another site.

This is so incredibly bad on so many levels, it's hard to believe Insider would publish it. 

However, it gives me a chance to post some for the archives, for the grandchildren.

I served in the USAF for 30 years plus one day.

For the first half of my career, let's say fifteen years, I was in operations. In those years, my schedule was out of my control, was chaotic, unpredictable, and I was either on-call or at work 24/7. Every other week, in addition to the regular chaotic 24/7 schedule I worked the emergency room for twenty-hours on Saturday, or twelve hours Friday night to Saturday morning. I was up most nights at 2:00 a.m. answering phone calls from the emergency room or actually going into work on the OB unit, or the ER.

The second fourth of my career, let's say seven years, I was a commander, with office hours of 7:30 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. I often stayed later. In addition, about 20% of my time was still in operations, with the same chaotic and unpredictable scheduling.

During those seven years I developed a very successful office schedule. 

On the first day of the week, I went into the office at 4:00 a.m. I had no trouble getting up. I couldn't wait to see what had transpired overnight and what was waiting for me. Between 5:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m. I got all the paperwork for the day completed, allowing for a completely open schedule the rest of the day to work with others. 

On the second day, Tuesday, I went into work at 5:00 a.m.

On the third day, Wednesday, I went into work at 6:00 a.m. -- each day catching up on a bit more sleep.

By Thursday and Friday I was back on the 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. schedule.

Weekends, of course, varied based on operations and pop-ups from my boss, either a one-star or a two-star.  

***

I developed some of my sleep habits during college, but it was during my third and fourth years of medical school where my sleeping habits really evolved.  

The hours of sleep before midnight are/were most important, so I tried being in bed by 10:00 p.m. 

Something no one seems to talk about but may be contributory to maintaining this sleep schedule: diet. Of course no alcohol, but in addition, a very, very limited caloric diet. 

Exercise became more and more important as I got older. Now, in retirement, I have an exercise schedule that is significantly more challenging than any exercise program I had while on active duty -- but I was in the USAF, not the US Army, and certainly not the US Marines! LOL. 

***

This might be a good time to note this.

I did not drink coffee during my seven years in operations -- off and on, off course, but generally no coffee, and no other sleep aids -- to help get to sleep; to help wake up.

But, speaking of coffee: that meme that caffeine might be a cardiac risk -- not true. 

Link to The WSJ

I now drink a lot of coffee, but for reasons other than helping me get up or stay awake. I can drink caffeinated coffee right before going to bed and it does not affect me. However, if I have caffeinated coffee about an hour before retiring, it might affect my sleep but if so, of that I'm not aware.

One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- March 23, 2023

Story of the day: NVDA.


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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $70.34.

Natural gas: $2.205.

Friday, March 24, 2023: 77 for the month: 239 for the quarter, 239 for the year
39198, conf, CLR, Boe State 7-16H,

Thursday, March 23, 2023: 76 for the month: 238 for the quarter, 238 for the year
39107, conf, Kraken, Rose 16-21 4H,

RBN Energy: Enbridge's heavy-and light-oil "supersystems" to Texas Gulf coast. Archived.

In small steps and giant leaps, Enbridge has been building out two “supersystems” for transporting crude oil to refineries and the company’s own export terminals along Texas’s Gulf Coast, one moving heavy crude all the way from Alberta’s oil sands to the Houston area and the other shuttling light oil from the Permian to Enbridge’s massive terminal in Ingleside on the north side of Corpus Christi Bay. There’s nothing quite like it — first, an unbroken series of pipelines from Western Canada to Enbridge’s tank farm in Cushing, OK, (via the Midwest) and from there to Freeport, TX, on the twin Seaway pipelines; and second, the Gray Oak and Cactus II pipes from West Texas to the U.S.’s #1 crude export terminal. And the midstream giant is far from done. New projects and expansions are in the works, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog.